For the Year: 13-22-1 (.371) ($1120) ATS 23-13 (.639) SU
What we learned last week:
We learned that Alabama QB Greg McElroy can complete less than half of his passes, not throw a ball longer than 15 yards, and not throw a touchdown pass, but Alabama can jump Texas in the AP Poll and catch them in the Harris. Let’s see if Alabama is held to the same standard if Texas beats Oklahoma, Missouri and Oklahoma State in the next three weeks while Alabama gets South Carolina, Tennessee and a bye week in the next three…
We learned that Rick Neuheisel is going to have a short stint at UCLA if he can’t find a quarterback. UCLA’s two quarterbacks combined for 145 yards passing on 35 attempts, a putrid 4.14 yards per attempt against Oregon last week. The Ducks have gone on quite a run since that season opening loss to Boise State, and their defense is a huge reason for that…
We learned that Urban Meyer risked Tim Tebow’s future health for 13 points against LSU. Congrats, Urban. The Gators now rank 78th in the country in passing offense, but we still hear Tebow, Tebow, Tebow for the Heisman. Barf…
We learned that Ndamukong Suh might single-handily bring back the Blackshirts to Nebraska. His performance against Missouri opened the eyes of the rest of the nation to a budding young defensive star….
We learned that Sam Bradford can give fiery half-time speeches and propel Oklahoma to….score 5 more points in the second half that they did in the first half. A home game against a Baylor team playing their third string quarterback making his first start in hostile territory was supposed to be the perfect return for Oklahoma’s Heisman trophy winner, and while he looked fine, something just seems amiss on the Oklahoma team, and it starts with the lack of playmakers on offense….
And finally, we learned the true meaning of the old football adage, “defense never takes days off.” The offense might have left for Dallas a week early, but the defense and special teams scored more than the Colorado offense, and the Longhorns are 5-0 and undefeated going into OU week once again….
Anyhow…
“Why those sorry bastards, I don’t trust ‘em on anything.”—Darrell Royal
It’s time.
Graham Harrell floats back in the pocket….has a receiver down field, it’s Crabtree. Got him! Touchdown Texas Tech! The Red Raiders take the lead with one second left on the clock….
The day we’ve all been waiting for…..
…and the Oklahoma Sooners beat the Texas Tech Red Raiders 65-21…
….for about 11 months now.
…and with that spin, Sam Bradford showed the heart and determination of this Oklahoma football team, as they beat Oklahoma State 61-41 and will be headed to the Big 12 Championship game in Kansas City, Missouri…
For they took what was ours…
….as they win yet another Big 12 Championship, beating the Missouri Tigers 62-21 and will likely be headed to Miami for the National Championship match-up with the Florida Gators…
….but make no mistake, it’s not revenge.
It’s a reckoning.
Twelve months and one week ago, the Longhorns left the Cotton Bowl with a Fletcher’s corn dog in one hand and destiny in the other. Unfortunately that all slipped away, but we enter the Cotton Bowl on Saturday not only looking for that reckoning, not only looking to control our own destiny yet again, not only looking to stay undefeated for a run at a national championship, but to once again get a leg up on Oklahoma.
First of all, I hope you all realize just how special this game is nowadays. Both of these coaches have a national championship this decade. Since Mack Brown arrived to the 40 Acres in 1998, Texas has won 120 games, the best in the nation. Oklahoma has won 117 in that time. Since Bob Stoops arrived in Norman in 1999, no other school in the Big 12 South has represented the South at the Big 12 Championship other than Texas or Oklahoma.
At least one of these teams is entering the game ranked in the Top 25 for the 11th straight year, and 61st time out of 73 possible games since the poll system started. This is the 33rd year that both teams enter ranked in the Top 25. As Barking Carnival pointed out this week, the Brown/Stoops coaching rivalry is in rarified air. Coaches leave, coaches get fired, coaches retire, but this rivalry lives on.
So we know what is at stake for this season, but what about long term? It can be argued that if Texas wins this game, and especially if they win it in convincing fashion, that Oklahoma will be viewed as a team with serious dents in their armor, and perhaps, a program on a downslide?
Now, don’t get me wrong. I in no way think that OU is a program in decline, a lot of programs would be very glad to have their recent problems. Texas was beginning to get that label when they couldn’t beat Oklahoma earlier this decade, and came out of it.
But success is very fickle in college football. It is very rare for two teams such as Texas and Oklahoma to enjoy success for as long as they have, especially in this era of reduced scholarships. Miami was on the top of the college football world in 2001, much like Oklahoma and Texas are now, but quickly fell off and even though they look better this year, they still got shell-shocked in Blacksburg, which showed they have a ways to go.
Nebraska was the model program (at least on the field) in the mid 90’s, but quickly hit the bottom when Tom Osborne left. Florida had a brief lull (also known as the Ron Zook era) when Steve Spurrier left. LSU won a national championship 2 years ago, but last year lost five games, and could very well lose close to that this year.
Oklahoma has lost five straight BCS bowl games, and three of those were in embarrassing fashion, getting blown out by USC in the 2005 Orange Bowl, losing to David to their Goliath Boise State in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl and getting blown out by West Virginia in the 2008 Fiesta Bowl. Not only that, but the Sooners have lost 3 out of 4 to Texas, and have a very mediocre, near .500 record outside the state of Oklahoma in the last few years.
If they lose this game, they will be 3-3, and for the first time since 2005 they will be .500 or less after six games, and for only the second time since 1998. Sam Bradford is likely to leave after this season. DeMarco Murray might follow suit and leave for the NFL. Trent Williams, their best offensive lineman, is a senior.
Nobody calls Bob Stoops “Big Game Bob” anymore. If anything, it is “Big Game Mack.” Texas is 17-3 in their last 20 games against ranked opponents. The Sooners? They are 0-3 in their last three against ranked opponents. They have gone 1-8 in their last 9 games against ranked non-conference opponents. Stoops is 4-8 in games decided by three points or less. Mack Brown? 17-3, including his last fourteen.
Saturday represents the opportunity for Mack Brown to finish out the decade with a 4-6 record against Oklahoma, which isn’t what we would have liked, but it is a lot better than what we thought it might be during the dark Octobers of the early 2000’s. But more importantly, it leaves Texas at 6-0, with an opportunity to control their own destiny with their toughest opponent behind them. To get where they thought they belonged a year ago, the national championship game.
A day of reckoning.
I can smell the corn dogs already.
FACEBOOK NEWS FEED
Deion Sanders is up in your clubhouse, getting your receivers suspended.
Bob Stoops says can’t Sergio Kindle go to Deion’s house on Friday?
Urban Meyer is watching Varsity Blues. Love Bud Kilmer.
Jonathan Crompton wrote on Cody Hawkins’s Wall: See, I told you I’m better than you.
Charlie Weis is staying up all night this week, sleeping in his office, trying to figure out how to score a touchdown this week against USC.
Major Applewhite is glad that nobody remembers he is the running backs coach.
On to the games...
South Carolina @ Alabama -17:
Which defense shows up for the Gamecocks this week? The one that held Georgia to 107 yards rushing and Mississippi to 139, or the one that allowed 207 to Kentucky last week? If the latter shows up, Mark Ingram will have a field day, and will start getting Heisman talk.
On offense, South Carolina will need Stephen Garcia to be perfect. Good luck with all of that. But, Alabama is likely due for a let-down game, and this might be a good spot with Tennessee on deck.
Alabama 27 South Carolina 13
ATS – South Carolina
SU – Alabama
Virginia Tech -3 @ Georgia Tech:
Virginia Tech won a close one last year, but the Yellowjackets were still able to run for 278 yards on that vaunted Hokie defense in Blacksburg. The two teams only combined for 157 yards passing.
Both Alabama and Nebraska ran for more than 200 yards on Virginia Tech, otherwise they have given up little on the ground this year. Georgia Tech is coming off a 400 yard rushing effort against Florida State last week.
Give me Georgia Tech in a mild upset.
Georgia Tech 21 Virginia Tech 17
ATS – Georgia Tech
SU – Georgia Tech
USC -10 @ Notre Dame:
This would be a monumental win for Charlie Weis, whose Irish are 1-18 since November 2006 against teams that finished with a winning record. Notre Dame is off to a hot start, but USC is a different animal, as none of the teams that the Irish have beaten this year have a winning record.
This one will likely come down to how well the Notre Dame defense does against the USC rushing attack. Contain them, and force Matt Barkley to beat you? Then Notre Dame has a shot at the upset. Let Joe McKnight get loose and hit a couple of big plays, then it could be another in a long series of disappointments for Weis.
I like USC here, but the spread seems a bit big for a USC team that is still going through growing pains with a quarterback.
USC 28 Notre Dame 23
ATS – Notre Dame
SU – USC
Missouri @ Oklahoma State -7:
This was the game last year where everyone started to believe that Oklahoma State might be for real, as the Cowboys prevailed 28-23 in Columbia, with 3 scoring plays of 31 yards or longer.
Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert should have been intercepted about 6 times last week, and I don’t think he’ll fare any better for an Oklahoma State team that is looking to get on a roll into the meat of their conference schedule.
Oklahoma State 34 Missouri 21
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State
Texas Tech @ Nebraska -10.5:
The match-up to watch here is the Tech defensive line against the Nebraska offensive line. Zac Lee struggled a bit when Virginia Tech’s defense got after him, and Tech is surprisingly ranked 12th in the country in sacks thus far this season. If the Cornhuskers can protect Lee, they can put up some points here.
Nebraska’s defense has only given up one passing touchdown all year, but Tech is a different animal. I like Nebraska to win here, but that spread is a bit big for a Mike Leach offense.
Nebraska 38 Texas Tech 31
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Nebraska
Oklahoma v. Texas -3.5:
And the one that really matters.
Texas has a chance to knock Oklahoma out of contention for anything but the Alamo Bowl here, while Oklahoma has a chance to ruin Texas’s shot at a national title, and put themselves in the driver’s seat for yet another Big 12 title.
As everyone knows, this is a game of streaks, and Texas has won 3 out of the last 4. For you real nerds out there, a 2 loss Oklahoma team has beaten an undefeated Texas team only once, in 1982.
WHEN OKLAHOMA HAS THE BALL
It all starts up front for the Sooners. An already banged-up offensive line must now go without LG Brian Simmons, meaning the Sooners will once again have to field a different five than they did the game before.
Expect right tackles Jarvis Jones and Corey Brandon to have a lot of trouble against Texas DE Sergio Kindle. The Sooner RTs have had a tremendous time against speed rushers on that side, and Kindle is probably the fastest one in the nation. And when Kindle gets to the quarterback, he delivers. Ask Taylor Potts.
Sam Bradford is back, and looked good last week outside of the red zone. The red zone has been a continuous problem for the Sooners this year. They kicked 3 field goals in the red zone against Baylor last week. At this time last year, the Sooners had scored 26 touchdowns on 27 trips to the red zone. This year they have only scored 15 touchdowns in 25 trips. If they expect to beat a team like Texas, field goals will not get the job done.
The playmaking of the Sooner offense lost a lot when Jermaine Gresham went down with an injury, and the Sooners have struggled to find a receiver besides Ryan Broyles that demands any sort of extra attention from the defense. Oklahoma is scoring 16 ppg less than they did last year.
Another problem for the Sooners has been the running game. The Sooners have rushed for 200 yards only once this season, and averaged less than 4 yards per carry in their big games against BYU and Miami. They don’t figure to get healthy against a Texas defense that ranks first in the nation against the rush.
So what’s going to happen when Oklahoma has the ball? Expect a Will Muschamp defense that is getting better by the game to confuse an Oklahoma offensive line that has struggled to make adjustments this year. BYU was able to use a delayed blitz that Oklahoma never picked up on, and Sam Bradford paid for it with an injury. I expect Sergio Kindle to put a lot of pressure on Bradford, for Oklahoma’s running game to be nullified, and if Broyles doesn’t play and isn’t effective, then it could be a long day for the Sooner offense.
WHEN TEXAS HAS THE BALL
There is a lot of hand wringing in Austin about the offense, but the fact of the matter is that the Longhorns have scored the exact same number of points through five games this year that they did last year, rank #1 in scoring offense, and rank #7 in total offense.
That isn’t to say there aren’t some problems on offense. The running game was an absolute abortion against Colorado last week, and even if the Longhorns had a vanilla gameplan, they should be able to beat Colorado off the ball on talent alone. Add to it that Vondrell McGee and Tre Newton are banged up and a veteran Sooner defensive line led by Gerald McCoy and the Longhorns’ chances of winning this game on the ground are questionable.
Of course we had doubts that Texas could run the ball last year, and the Longhorns ended up running for 161 yards on 35 carries, and we had the emergence of Chris Ogbonnaya. Speaking of last year…
Last year at this time, Colt McCoy had rushed the ball 59 times for 348 yards. This year? 34 rushes for 58 yards. So, in effect, with the loss of Quan Cosby to the NFL, the Longhorns have lost their leading receiver and leading rusher off of last year’s team.
The Longhorns must get McCoy more involved in the running game. Their offense was at the best last season when he was involved.
So if Texas can’t run the ball, can they pass their way to victory? In a word, yes. In two words, hell yes. Oklahoma gave up 329 yards in the air to BYU, 202 yards and 3 touchdowns to Miami and gave up 262 yards to Baylor last week. Oklahoma can get pressure on the quarterback, but as always, they are still giving up yards across the middle of the field, a place where Dan Buckner should be able to exploit at will against a linebacker in the base 4-3 that Oklahoma likes to run at all times.
So…if you are scoring at home, I see the game this way:
Oklahoma running the ball: Advantage Texas
Oklahoma passing the ball: Advantage Texas (if the Longhorns get a pass rush)
Texas running the ball: Advantage Oklahoma
Texas passing the ball: Advantage Texas
The Longhorns also have the advantage on special teams, where they are 11th in the country in punt returns and 1st in the country in kick-off returns (Oklahoma had a bad problem covering kicks last year), while Oklahoma ranks 15th in punt returns but only 92nd in kickoff returns.
So….
Here is what I see happening. I think Colt McCoy is finally given the leeway to run the ball in this one. Which opens things up downfield. Bradford will get a couple of opportunities, but I also see Sergio Kindle harassing him into possibly turning the ball over (Bradford has 2 interceptions in his two Texas games). I also think the Longhorns make a big play on special teams.
Texas wins their 4th game in 5 years, Mack Brown goes to 5-6 against Bob Stoops, and the Horns control their own destiny for Arlington and beyond.
Texas 28 Oklahoma 14
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas
Random Hot Dallas Chick
For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Fletcher’s corn dogs, beer in a wax cup and fried butter.
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