Wednesday, September 28, 2011

The Week That Will Be (10.01.2011)

Last Week: 4-2 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 14-10 (.583) ($260) ATS 16-8 (.667) SU


What we learned last week:

We learned that Mike Stoops should probably be sending feelers elsewhere as Oregon ran for 415 yards on 47 carries as Arizona got hammered for the third straight week.

…that LSU is probably the best team in the country as their offense was efficient at best but they still managed to down West Virginia by nearly four touchdowns on the strength of takeaways (Oregon feels your pain WVU) and special teams play (again, they feel your pain).

…that Alabama could be right behind them with that defense and Trent Richardson running like the cars he drives, but they’ll need A.J. McCarron to make a play at some point.

…that apparently Kansas State is better than we all thought, knocking over Miami on the strength of 286 rushing yards on 36 carries. Bill Snyder might be able to pass as a South Florida resident, but he can coach some football.

…that we can hold off on anointing Oklahoma as the best team in the country after falling down quickly to Missouri. Nobody thought that they were going to lose that game, but you are at home against a team that beat you last year, great teams roll there.

…and finally, we learned that Texas A&M’s offense left for the SEC a half early as they choked one away at Kyle Field.

Anyhow…

The 2010 Texas Longhorns started the season 3-0, but that is akin to saying that the Titanic made it out of port just fine. Which is to say yes, this team is 3-0 and has been much more impressive in getting there than last year, but the potentially hardest three game stretch of their season lies ahead of them in the next three weeks.

This isn’t the same Iowa State team that Texas beat 56-3 in the midst of what we thought at the time was the dreadful 2007 season. This Iowa State team is undefeated (more on that later), and will host a sold-out stadium that would like nothing better than to beat Texas for the second straight year.

Add to that nervousness is the fact that Mack Brown said the Longhorns had a couple of lackluster practices last week after feeling good about themselves coming off the victory against UCLA, and the fact that Oklahoma is next week, and this is the classic trap game where a young team starts to think it is better than it is and can waltz into another team’s stadium and walk away with a victory.

Texas is saying all the right things this week, but beware.

Next week the Longhorns stay on the road and travel to Dallas to play Oklahoma. If you are reading this column I really don’t have to tell you the importance of that game, but consider that a great percentage of our two-deep are freshmen and sophomores that have never walked off the Cotton Bowl field with a ridiculous golden hat on their heads after beating Oklahoma.

And yes, we should mention that unless Oklahoma falls to Ball State this weekend (and David Letterman throws the biggest party in America), the Sooners will travel to Dallas ranked at the very least in the Top 3 of the country. It would be a monumental win for a rebuilding program, a sign that we might be a year ahead of schedule.

After that, the Longhorns finally travel back home to take on Oklahoma State, which for a half last week looked more like Khloe than Kourtney or Kim, but then knocked A&M off their own field with that trademark Kardashian rear end. It might be a stretch but not a huge stretch to say that Oklahoma State will present a greater challenge on defense than Oklahoma will, with Brandon Weeden eligible for Social Security in the next year and Justin Blackmon looking like Dez Bryant with a good head on his shoulders.

Win one of those three, and we might be where any rational fan might have projected we would be. Win two, and it could be that sign that we are a year ahead of schedule in the Longhorn rebuilding project. Win all three…and we’re talking about a Longhorn football team ranked firmly in the Top 10, we’re talking about building a statue of Case McCoy and David Ash in the Red McCombs Red Zone and we’re debating whether or not Malcolm Brown will leave for the NFL before he wins four Heismans.

These next three weeks won’t make or break the program, but it is a great opportunity to see where we are as a program halfway into the first year of this new era followed by a number of winnable games leading up to the Thanksgiving tilt with Texas A&M.

Insert Bart Scott quote here.

On to the games...

Clemson @ Virginia Tech -7:

Clemson is 4-0 on the strength of an offense directed by Chad Morris and acted out by sophomore Tajh Boyd, who has 13 touchdowns to only 1 interception. Unfortunately for Clemson, they also have a defense that is allowing 405 yards per game to teams like Auburn and Florida State, yes, but also to teams like Wofford and Troy.

Clemson’s first road game in 2011 ends in a loss.

Virginia Tech 27 Clemson 23
ATS – Clemson
SU – Virginia Tech

Nebraska @ Wisconsin -9.5:

Nebraska’s first Big 10 conference game finds them in Madison, where they have not played since 1962. The Cornhuskers welcome back Jared Crick, who missed last week’s game with an injury.

But you have to wonder if it will matter since Nebraska has given up 81 points in three games with and without him, against lackluster competition such as Fresno State, Washington and Wyoming.

Russell Wilson has been outstanding (1,136 yards passing, 11 TD 1 INT). Add his performance to a Wisconsin rushing attack and I see Nebraska getting run out of the building here.

Wisconsin 34 Nebraska 17
ATS – Wisconsin
SU – Wisconsin

Alabama -4 @ Florida:

It is the #2 defense in the country (Alabama) against the #5 defense (Florida) in what promises to be a low scoring slugfest.

The question is, which quarterback do you trust here to make a play if the running games get bottled up? A.J. McCarron (Alabama) and John Brantley (Florida) have been remarkably similar, with McCarron throwing for 779 yards to Brantley’s 752, McCarron completing 66.3% of his passes compared to Brantley’s 64% completion percentage, a 4/2 TD to INT ratio for each, and a negligible difference in YPA (8.20 to 8.74).

Who wins here? Your guess is as good as mine.

Alabama 17 Florida 14
ATS – Florida
SU – Alabama

Baylor -3.5 @ Kansas State:

It would be a waste of space to talk about Robert Griffin’s accomplishments here, you know that he has more touchdown passes than incompletions, but the question is, can he and Baylor do it on the road?
Griffin had 404 yards passing against Kansas State last year, and figures to approach that number this year, but Baylor needs to win games like this convincingly to start proving that they belong.

Baylor 31 Kansas State 24
ATS – Baylor
SU – Baylor

Texas A&M -3 vs. Arkansas:

The Aggies finally get their dream SEC match-up, unfortunately for them they have lost both games against Arkansas since renewing this series two years ago.

A&M fell in love with the pass last week, throwing the ball 18 times in the fourth quarter and only giving Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael a combined 19 carries overall. Ryan Tannehill can be great, although he was borderline awful last week, but A&M is at their best when those two guys get going.

Arkansas has their own problems, but throwing the football is not one of them. They are averaging 312 yards through the air on the year despite only throwing for 209 last week against Alabama. They should be able to move the ball on the A&M secondary that is giving up 279 yards through the air.

Arkansas 31 Texas A&M 28
ATS – Arkansas
SU – Arkansas

Texas -9.5 @ Iowa State:

The first thing you hear about Iowa State is about their quarterback, Steele Jantz, who played last year at City College of San Francisco, who Mike Stoops tried to schedule at the end of the year to pad his win totals when he heard this story.

Jantz has been good but not great, completing less than 60% of his passes and throwing for only 666 yards in 3 games with 6 TD and 6 INT. He’s been clutch, but not consistent. He is what some might call “Iowa State hot”, as in “pretty good for what you’ll find at Iowa State.”

Insert obligatory “they beat us last year” here.

So how did Iowa State get out to that 3-0 record? They beat a Northern Iowa squad by one point that went on to defeat both Stephen F. Austin and Western Illinois. They then beat Iowa in 3 overtimes, a Hawkeye team that is allowing 386 yards per game. And then there was the 4 point win over defending Big East champion UConn, who beat Buffalo by 2 touchdowns last week.

Let’s put it this way. If Texas had the same results, we would have people crashing the Internet with rants about how Mack Brown is washed up and we need to replace him with Major Applewhite.

However, that isn’t to say that Iowa State doesn’t present a formidable challenge. Like what was mentioned earlier, this will be a real test for a young team that will face their first true hostile environment against a team that very well could be bowl eligible by the end of the year.

Get up big like you did against UCLA, and Iowa State doesn’t have the weapons to come back. Let them hang around, however, and this team will gain confidence behind a sold-out stadium.

Texas 24 Iowa State 17
ATS – Iowa State
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

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For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for #6 jerseys at the Co-op.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

The Week That Will Be (09.24.2011)

Last Week: 3-3 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 10-8 (.556) ($100) ATS 12-6 (.667) SU


What we learned last week:

We learned that Will Muschamp likes to stare a lot, but he wasn’t staring at Chris Rainey, as he was the Florida offense, amassing 232 total yards in Florida’s victory over Tennessee.

…that LSU’s defense could probably shut out a few NFL teams. Good lord.

…that Joe Bauserman is not the latest in the line of “Big Stiff But Effective” quarterbacks at Ohio State, as he and back-up Braxton Miller had combined for 13 passing yards late in the 4th quarter in their loss to Miami.

…that Oklahoma State (and Tulsa for that matter) have some guys that can play on Sundays.

…that Oklahoma and Florida State play some boring, yet highly rated football.

…and that the Longhorns can have a successful business trip. A Case McCoy tweet late in the week stated that as the goal, but 284 rushing yards later the Longhorns had run all over UCLA for a change.

While I don’t get as much mail as much more successful writers like Bill Simmons, that doesn’t mean that we can’t disguise a random thoughts column inside a “synthetic” mailbag column. Remember, these are NOT actual letters from actual readers:

What is up with Texas ducking Texas A&M on Thanksgiving weekend from now on?

Bill B.
College Station, TX


Well, Bill, the fact of the matter is that Texas A&M agreed to a contract last year, agreed upon the parameters of the Longhorn Network earlier this year, and only now, a month before the season kicked off, decided to catapult the college football world into chaos.

Now Fredo Corleone is in bed with the Barzini family, letting their dirty practices into our neighborhood…so no, you’re not a brother or a friend, I don’t want to know you or what you do…I don’t want you near my house…you understand?

Why can’t you Texas fans realize that revenue sharing might be un-American but we must honor old rivals like Washington State who go to the Rose Bowl once a generation in favor of teams that go to the Rose Bowl several times a decade?

Larry S.
Los Angeles, CA


Why, of course, Larry…we will of course share our Tier I and Tier II rights equally, no matter if we are on TV more than Seinfeld re-runs…but you really need our $15 million for our Tier III rights, also known as the Longhorn (Notice No Red Raider) Network?

If we gave the member schools their 1/16th share, USC would spend the money on more, ahem, student housing…UCLA could then afford Oscars-like seat fillers to fill up the Rose Bowl on Saturday afternoons…Stanford would buy a few more trees to hug…Cal might be able to field a baseball team…Oregon would just buy more “scouting materials”…Washington would buy VHS videotapes of their 1991 season in review…and Washington State might put up a Ryan Leaf statue.

We’ll save you the embarrassment.

Did you see how late that Oklahoma State/Tulsa game started the other night? I was in bed reading oil prospectuses by 9 o’clock!

T.B.P.
Stillwater, OK


I can’t even imagine the chaos that would surround our tailgating lot by the beginning of a football game that kicked off after midnight…but I imagine it to be just like a Dolph Lundgren movie…or a rap video, I don’t know.

Does the Alumni Center call for last call at 1:45 AM as halftime is just beginning? Do we get infomercials instead of commercials during breaks? Do they break out the glow sticks when they play that awful techno music before kickoffs? We need to find out.

For a limited time only! #7 jerseys are half off! Get them now!

University C.
Austin, TX


Really? I’m going to buy a boatload and rebrand them as Matt Nordgren jerseys…dude is a hit these days.

On to the games...

Oregon -16 @ Arizona:

This is the third game of three in a ridiculous stretch in the month of September for Arizona, who also played at Oklahoma State (L 37-14) and home against Stanford (L 37-10) last week.

Nick Foles has been great (1,049 yards 7 TD/0 INT), but Oregon is too much for a worn out Arizona squad.

Oregon 44 Arizona 17
ATS – Oregon
SU – Oregon

LSU -6 @ West Virginia:

West Virginia has been inconsistent at best, going down at the half to Norfolk State and then getting up to a big lead and having to hold on against Maryland last week.

You’re going to have to be very good to perfect to beat this LSU defense, and although I’m a big Dana Holgersen fan, the Tigers are only giving up 47 yards per game on the ground and 207 total yards through three games that included Mississippi State and Oregon.

LSU 24 West Virginia 13
ATS – LSU
SU – LSU

Arkansas @ Alabama -12:

Arkansas would take their lead last year, where they were up on Alabama 20-7 in the second half before the Crimson Tide roared back.

In the last trip to Tuscaloosa the Razorbacks got their hide handed to them, 35-7, and I expect more of the same as an Arkansas offensive line that has given up 7 sacks to three non-descript opponents will have their hands full with this defense.

Alabama 27 Arkansas 10
ATS – Alabama
SU – Alabama

Kansas State @ Miami -13:

Miami might have found a running back last week against Ohio State as Lamar Miller carried the ball 26 times for 184 yards in their 24-6 win. The Buckeyes hadn’t given up that many yards since the Cooper era.

Meanwhile, Kansas State starts a quarterback who has thrown for 202 yards against Eastern Kentucky and Kent State.

Miami rolls them.

Miami 31 Kansas State 16
ATS – Miami
SU – Miami

Missouri @ Oklahoma -21:

This is a revenge game of sorts, as Oklahoma lost to Missouri in Columbia last year, 36-27 in a game where the Tigers had nearly 500 yards of offense.

The X factor here is Missouri quarterback James Franklin. After a lukewarm debut, he’s thrown for 319 yards for 2 touchdowns against Arizona State and then 246 and 3 touchdowns against…ahem…Western Illinois last week. But we all know the trouble that Oklahoma has had with mobile quarterbacks throughout the years, and Franklin rushed for 187 yards in two games against Miami of Ohio and ASU before sacks.

Landry Jones was very ordinary last week, although that was on the road against a tough defense. Oklahoma wins here, but Missouri keeps it interesting for a while.

Oklahoma 38 Missouri 24
ATS – Missouri
SU – Oklahoma

Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M -4:

And the game of the week is in…College Station, Texas? Unless you are ESPN Gameday that is. These two teams played an outstanding game in Stillwater last year as the teams combined for 888 yards in a 38-35 Oklahoma State victory.

Two things to watch here:

1.) Texas A&M, after two games, leads the nation in sacks with 11 and also leads the nation in sacks allowed, not having allowed one in two games.

2.) Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden has been careless with the football this year, throwing for 6 interceptions in 3 games.

If Texas A&M is able to pressure Weeden into making mistakes, shortening the field for those two running backs, the Cowboys will be dead in the water. Conversely, if Oklahoma State isn’t able to get to Ryan Tannehill, it will be a long night for them as their secondary has allowed 727 yards in 3 games.

These two teams will trade punches early, but eventually A&M will wear them down…even quicker if Weeden starts throwing to the wrong jersey.

Texas A&M 41 Oklahoma State 35
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – Texas A&M

Random Hot Dallas Chick

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For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for buying third tier rights to your local community college.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

The Week That Will Be (09.17.2011)

Last Week: 3-3 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 7-5 (.583) ($130) ATS 8-4 (.667) SU


We learned last week:

…that Auburn has been outgained by 234 yards in their first two games and Gene Chizik might have had horrible hair in high school, but they obviously bought the extended warranty.

…that EA Sports has outdone themselves this year, as I could have sworn that the Notre Dame/Michigan game where I saw three touchdowns in the final 1:22 was live action and not a video game.

…that Alabama is Alabama, and they do what they do, which is thump non-SEC opponents handily.

…that Mark Richt had better start looking at Zillow.com.

…that yes, it is possible to freeze your own kicker as Gary Pinkel proved.

And finally, we learned that Texas can out-physical another team…that they have progressed as that was a game that they lose last year, and that the leash was indeed short.

Mention the Rose Bowl around a group of Texas fans and they’ll break into a broad grin…but give them a second and they’ll also shake their head and look at the ground in disgust.

Sure, there is the beauty and tradition. Listen carefully and you can still hear the tones of Keith Jackson float over you as you gaze at the sunset reflecting off the San Gabriel mountains. There isn’t a better venue in all of sports in my opinion, but that isn’t why they smile.

They smile because of 4th and 6 at the North end of the field. They grin because of the fluttering kick at the same end of the stadium. And they shake their head because the last time we were in that stadium a national championship that they know was theirs went down with Colt McCoy’s injured shoulder.

Although Saturday’s match-up between Texas and UCLA has nothing like that on the line, we all know that where this team goes, intrigue follows.

The intrigue presents itself at the most important position on the field, the quarterback. Leading Texas onto the field on Saturday will be Case McCoy, Colt’s brother, who unlike his brother will be attempting to begin his legacy instead of cementing it.

Garrett Gilbert will once again take his seat on the Rose Bowl bench…this time as a jilted starter, not the bright eyed freshman taking it all in. If he plays this time it will once again be a story, but instead of a story of opportunity it will be a story of redemption or desperation, whichever side you should happen to fall upon.

Before McCoy, before Gilbert, before the other McCoy, before Young and Mangum, there was another game at the Rose Bowl that stick out to Texas fans old enough to remember the lean(er) years.

In 1998 the Longhorns entered Pasadena looking to avenge the 66-3 loss at the hands of the Bruins the year before. Texas was ranked #23, UCLA #6, so it should have been a competitive game but once again it was not as UCLA got out to a 35-3 lead at half-time.

But unlike the previous year, the Longhorns made a spirited charge at the end of the game on the legs of eventual Heisman Trophy winner Ricky Williams, and a freshman quarterback who made the most of his opportunity.

Texas was out of the game by the time Major Applewhite came into the game with 7:39 left in the fourth quarter, but nine plays later the Longhorns were in the end zone. First year head coach Mack Brown was impressed enough to make Applewhite the starter the next week (a 48-7 drubbing at the hands of Kansas State), and the rest…is history.

It remains to be seen how Case McCoy and David Ash handle their chance in the land of opportunity.

But if previous Texas trips to the Rose Bowl are any indication, it should be memorable.

On to the games...

Tennessee @ Florida -9.5:

There was a lot of talk about Cincinnati upsetting Tennessee last week, but Tyler Bray threw for 405 yards as the Vols dispatched of the Bearcats with ease.

Florida QB John Brantley is off to another slow start, throwing two interceptions to one touchdown for 424 yards in two games against doormats Florida Atlantic and UAB.

Florida will have enough on offense to win their seventh straight in the series here…but Tennessee has a little something this year so it should be close.

Florida 27 Tennessee 24
ATS – Tennessee
SU – Florida

LSU -3.5 @ Mississippi State:

Mississippi State looks to get back on track after letting one against Auburn get away from them, but it will be a formidable challenge as LSU has won 12 straight against the Bulldogs.

Lost in LSU’s season opening win over Oregon was the fact that they weren’t all that great. Jarrett Lee only managed 98 passing yards and the rushing game only averaged 3.6 yards per carry against an Oregon team that gave up 283 on the ground against Nevada last week.

Last week wasn’t much better as Lee threw for 133 and the Tigers averaged 3.9 ypc against Northwestern State. The LSU defense is national championship quality, but if the Bulldogs are able to get a few on the board, LSU won’t be able to keep up.

Mississippi State 26 LSU 20
ATS – Mississippi State
SU – Mississippi State

Ohio State @ Miami -2.5:

Jacory Harris is back for Miami, but he won’t help a secondary that gave up 348 yards to a guy named Danny (not Davey) O’Brien.

Ohio State 24 Miami 14
ATS – Ohio State
SU – Ohio State

Oklahoma State -13.5 @ Tulsa:

Tulsa has given up 593 passing yards through two games. They gave up 65 points to Oklahoma State last year, who returns Weeden and Blackmon. OSU rolls.

Oklahoma State 54 Tulsa 27
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Oklahoma -3 @ Florida State:

Oklahoma has never won a non-conference road game against a ranked opponent in the Bob Stoops era…which consists of about two games, one of those being the infamous loss to Oregon under auspicious circumstances. But it just seems a bit odd that they haven’t played more road games of that ilk, no?

What you have to ask in this game is….who the hell is E.J. Manuel? Well he’s thrown 12 touchdowns to 12 interceptions in 180 career passing attempts, and did lead the Seminoles to two bowl wins the last two seasons in relief of Christian Ponder. Is he good enough to beat Oklahoma? Sure. The Sooners gave up 271 passing yards to Tulsa and showed vulnerability against the pass all of last year.

Will he? Probably not.

Oklahoma 38 Florida State 30
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Texas -4 @ UCLA:

Stop the run. Stop the run. Stop the run. Play it on a loop at the practice fields all week, I don’t care. Stop the run and you beat UCLA.

Thankfully that actually looks like a possibility after the addition of Ashton Dorsey in the lineup helped Texas hold BYU to just 43 rushing yards. That effort will be needed as UCLA ran for 264 yards in last season’s 34-12 victory over Texas and return both running backs. Quarterback Kevin Prince ran for 50 himself and might play but that will be a game time decision after sustaining an injury earlier this year.

On defense, UCLA has (and let’s say this all together as it is a theme for UCLA) underachieved. Against doormat San Jose State the defensive line only combined for 11 total tackles, had no sacks, recorded no quarterback hurries and only had one tackle for loss.

Do that against Texas and they’ll run all over you (wow that is a relief to type).

So…sounds like Texas should roll, right? But who knows what you will get from McCoy and Ash? While the talent is there, this will be their first road test (if you don’t count Case McCoy’s one attempt at Rice last season). The Rose Bowl for a UCLA game is not an intimidating venue at all, but the fire is still a bit brighter away from home.

When in doubt, trust the coaching staff. Texas has more to gain here. They should expect UCLA’s best shot (we always get it), but I trust Bryan Harsin and Manny Diaz more than I do Rick Neuheisel and crew.

Texas 28 UCLA 20
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

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Wednesday, September 7, 2011

The Week That Will Be (09.10.2011)

Note: This entry can also be found at BarkingCarnival.com. 

Last Week: 4-2 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 4-2 (.667) ($160) ATS 4-2 (.667) SU


What we learned last week:

We learned that Notre Dame just believes that a win over a double digit underdog at home to open the season is way too easy of a way to begin your season (4 out of the last 5 years now).

…that Georgia might belong to the SEC (SEC! SEC!) but Boise State just goes on, beating most opponents with ease. At some point we might start to respect their efforts.

…that LSU can win some ugly, ugly games, but they are wins and count in the win column all the same.

…that TCU won’t be leading the nation in defense this season, and that Robert Griffin III will be a Heisman candidate…until week 4 when they go to Manhattan and lose.

…that Texas A&M can win easily when handed 20 points shortly after kickoff. We’ll learn more about them in two weeks when they play Oklahoma State.

…that Bryan Harsin and Major Applewhite have a long ways to go until they catch Greg Davis’s legacy. Last Saturday was the 47th time that the Longhorns reached 500 yards under Mack Brown, and we all know that Davis is responsible for 46 of those. Note that tongue is firmly in cheek.

Since Auburn obviously won’t be defending their national championship trophy, it is time that we take a look at the top contenders for this year’s crown, who hopefully one day won’t have it vacated. And since this is once again the summer of conference realignment, let’s take a look at them against that backdrop, assigning tiers to the top characters in this year’s drama:

THE SEC DIVISION

It is pretty clear that Oklahoma, Alabama and LSU are the big dogs here. Oklahoma has a great offense with a somewhat questionable defense while the other two teams are vice versa so these are the teams most likely to be bitching at Boise State later in the year, but they are the top tier.

THE LONGHORN NETWORK DIVISION

We all know they are great, will be great, but will anybody watch Boise State? Will anyone take anything they do seriously? Well of course they will because they are 5th in the country and will likely take the top spot if any of the above teams falter.

THE TEXAS A&M DIVISION

Okay, we all know they are good, but how good is Florida State, Stanford, Oklahoma State and well, Texas A&M? Each team looks talented, but whether it be inexperienced quarterback (FSU), new coaching staff (Stanford), pee down their legs every year (OSU and A&M), they all have questions that will be answered at some point.

THE TEXAS DIVISION

Wisconsin knows that if they keep their head down, keep doing what they do, they’ll end up just find, likely in the national championship game if the dominoes fall just right.

THE BILL BYRNE DIVISION

You have to have some talent to get to this station in life, but Nebraska, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Oregon and Arkansas all have talented teams with comical issues at times. Nebraska has the Pelini brothers, who look about like what Billy Martin would look like as a football coach. Virginia Tech wins every year but at the same time loses every year. South Carolina has a quarterback who has odds on him getting suspended up on the board in Vegas and a coach that pees on the trees at Augusta National. Oregon has a high octane offense but the recruiting practices of a Ford Pinto. And Arkansas has Bobby Petrino possibly leaving mid-season for another job at any point in his tenure and well, has Arkansas fans.

THE BAYLOR DIVISION

Otherwise known as the field. Ohio State has controversy but enough talent to muddle through the Big 10. Mississippi State might be able to win if the top of the SEC decides to take this season off for academics. Florida would be entertaining just to see how much coffee Will Muschamp drinks during championship week. West Virginia would be interesting to see if Dana Holgorsen makes it to the game after being in New Orleans for a week. And yes, Texas could win it if Oklahoma gets stuck in traffic on the way to Dallas and A&M leaves for the SEC in October.

On to the games...

Mississippi State -6.5 @ Auburn:

Okay, we all know that Auburn needed a miracle to come back and win against Utah State last week, but do we really trust Mississippi State to go on the road and win a big game?

Yes. They won 8 of their last 10 last season, including a win in Gainesville and a bowl romp against Michigan. While they won’t roll up the 600 yards they did last week in a win against Memphis, they should be able to move the ball on an Auburn defense that gave up 448 to Utah State last week.

Mississippi State 31 Auburn 17
ATS – MSU
SU – MSU

Notre Dame -3.5 @ Michigan:

The first night game at the Big House wouldn’t be able to hide another five turnovers by Notre Dame like they rolled up against South Florida last week. The Irish haven’t won in Ann Arbor since 2005 and I don’t see them ending that streak against a tough crowd behind a team that is ready for a checkmark win for the new coaching staff.

Michigan 34 Notre Dame 28
ATS – Michigan
SU – Michigan

Alabama -10 @ Penn State:

Alabama’s quarterbacks (A.J. McCarron and Phillip Sims) were awful last week, throwing 4 interceptions, but the Tide don’t rely on quarterback play to win ballgames. Those quarterbacks will have to be better against a Penn State defense that returns four starters in the secondary, but Penn State has offensive troubles of their own, passing for only 114 yards on 20 attempts against Indiana State, playing without Larry Bird.

Last year’s 24-3 Alabama win was a Crimson Tide defensive showcase, as they held Penn State to 283 total yards. With nine returning starters, I see more of the same happening here.

Alabama 27 Penn State 7
ATS – Alabama
SU – Alabama

South Carolina -3 @ Georgia:

This game was Marcus Lattimore’s coming out party last season as the then true freshman ran for 187 yards. But Georgia will be desperate here and will pull off the upset against a Gamecocks defense that was mediocre at best last season.

Georgia 24 South Carolina 20
ATS – Georgia
SU – Georgia

Missouri @ Arizona State -8:

That certainly was an ugly start for Missouri, who will be without two defensive starters after they suffered injuries in that 17-6 win over Miami (OH). Arizona State is a sneaky defensive team that had solid outings against Oregon (125 rushing yards on 36 carries) and Stanford (Andrew Luck 292 passing, 0 TD 1 INT) last year. They return 8 starters, including linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who had three sacks last week.

It doesn’t look good for Missouri.

Arizona State 31 Missouri 16
ATS – Arizona State
SU – Arizona State

BYU @ Texas -7:

This isn’t your dad’s (or even older brother’s) BYU team that throws the ball all over the field and will threaten to go to a BCS bowl, this is still a formidable match-up for a young Texas team struggling for confidence.

Much has been made of BYU’s strong finish to last season (winning 5 of their last 6), but the combined records of those teams was 15-47. The quarterback is highly recruited Jake Heaps, who had an unspectacular 2010 followed by an underwhelming performance last week against Mississippi. In order to win this game, BYU will have to dink and dunk its way around the field. It won’t get much help from a running game that averaged 3.8 yards per carry last week. Depending on your view of the Texas defense from last week, you decide if that is any way to win this game.

As unthreatening as BYU’s offense is, they feature a physical defense that will provide a challenge to a Texas team that is still growing at the quarterback position. Garrett Gilbert will have to be on his A game here, and the mistakes that were shown early against Rice will need to be corrected.

Jump out on top early, and Texas can win this game with no problem. Let that defense shove you around and you will find yourself in a dogfight where their offense only needs one solid drive to beat you.

I like Texas here. With all due respect to Rice, I’m guessing that Bryan Harsin spent more time watching BYU film in the off-season than he did watching Rice. Add to that fact that BYU was in a physical game last week in a somewhat hostile territory, and I’m not sure that their young team can hold up.

Texas 28 BYU 17
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

Image

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for a Jimmer Fredette Kings jersey.

Thursday, September 1, 2011

The Week That Will Be (09.03.2011)

Last Week: 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU
For the Year: 0-0 (.) ($) ATS 0-0 (.) SU


What we learned this off-season:

We learned that you can ride on a yacht and party with strippers and get a one game suspension, but you trade in an autographed glove and you’re getting five games. Nice consistency, NCAA……We learned that Texas A&M has self-esteem issues that will only be exasperated by joining a conference where they have no ally and everyone is just using them for their hot mom (recruiting in Texas)…..Meanwhile we learned that it is a good possibility that Texas can replace the Aggies on the schedule with Notre Dame. That is like losing your annoying little brother and getting a prom date with the hot drill team captain all in the same day….We learned that Auburn was cheating, we learned that Oregon was cheating, we learned that the guy in Section 4A, Row 4, Seat 3 was cheating on his wife, the hot dog guy was cheating on his taxes, the parking lot attendant was cheating people out of money by making a fake sign, Gene Chizik was cheating gravity by carrying a stone block on his shoulders; if you ain’t cheating, you ain’t playing in the national championship game, apparently…..and finally, we learned that Rachel McCoy doesn’t like Twitter after all.

Anyhow…

“If we can’t live together…we’re going to die alone.” – Jack Shepherd, LOST


One day when I am old and gray* and regaling my grandchildren with tales of how Texas won an unprecedented 10 national championships in a row while overtaking Michigan for all-time win numbers, fueled by the cloning of David Ash and his four Heisman trophy self, I’ll likely leave out the year 2010 unless I want to give some background on how Manny Diaz and Major Applewhite ascended to the throne when they made a drunken barroom bet that Diaz could win a certain number of national championships, would then retire, and Applewhite would try to overtake him.

The joke is on them, however, as they end up tying each other with five, leading to the most watched event on the Longhorn Network in the entity’s short history, Thumb Wrestling with Manny and Major.

(* anyone else have to Google gray every time they use it to make sure they don’t sound like an Englishman? Yeah, me neither.)

It is hard to pinpoint where it all went wrong in 2010, but only because Vegas has about 20 items on the LED board with odds on where it went wrong. Perhaps it was the erroneous decision to go with a pro-style offense even though new starting quarterback Garrett Gilbert was the most prolific passer in Texas high school football history (but c’mon, Texas doesn’t have much high school football history, does it?), perhaps it was the failed running game that made the decision to go to a pro-style offense even more baffling, perhaps it was the offensive line that was more concerned with “having fun” and making reporters laugh every Wednesday instead of going out and blocking somebody (which, by the way, made the decision to go to a pro-style offense even more foolish), perhaps it was a wide receivers corps that included guys known for dropping big passes and guys that bragged after the season about not working out (who may or may not have spent this Summer wearing a fleur de lis on his headgear in camp).

Maybe it was said quarterback who didn’t take command of the huddle when things went wrong, who didn’t demand respect from his offensive line when he was knocked down yet again without getting helped up yet again.

Maybe it was a defense that (how do I put this kindly), took some plays off midway through the season when it was apparent that the offense was a failure instead of buckling down and doing their job like a number of fine defenses with bad offenses have done in the past.

Maybe it was a coaching staff that instead of buckling down and doing their jobs for which they are rewarded handsomely decided to have Wrestlemania in the locker room following a loss to Iowa State complete with Benny Hill music playing while the offensive coordinator flies through the Spanish announcers table*. Maybe it was the same coaching staff that had the recruiting range of an Uncle Rico pass since the national championship and took only one running back in a particular class who, to their credit, is now in our two-deep….at defensive end. Perhaps it was the same coaching staff that was more interested in telling their agent they needed a new job instead of calling in a player to coach him up for a make or break game at the end of the season.

(*embellished)

No, when you look at 2010, you see a season where you wonder how bad it might have been if we didn’t have targets such as Rice and Florida Atlantic that even Chris Brown wouldn’t have had the heart to throw a punch at. It was a disaster, an unmitigated failure that left Tommy Tuberville and Bo Pelini meeting halfway somewhere in Kansas ordering shots of cheap whiskey from the bartender while they stroke their three day-old beard and mutter about how in the hell they lost to Texas last year while shielding their eyes when someone lets in the garish light of day.

Last year was about as bottom as it hopefully gets in Austin, but the good news is that we live in Fickle, USA where your national perception can turn on a dime.

That work began back in December when Mack Brown jettisoned longtime assistant coaches and replaced them with some of the best names in the business that on average were 11 years younger than their predecessors. Gone was the complacent staff that wore the same shirt every Wednesday, in were young guys with something to prove and the excitement of working at the University of Texas.

Boise State has led the charge in offensive innovation in recent years, so offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin was brought in to bring those fresh ideas to Texas. Darrell Wyatt was hired away from Kansas because he is one of the best at his position and because he is a dynamic recruiter who will get on the road and get the job done. Stacy Searels was hired to renovate an offensive line that has been an embarrassment since the national championship days.

Manny Diaz was Harsin’s defensive equal at Mississippi State, throwing out the old rules of defensive football and introducing an aggressive fire zone defense that befuddled SEC coaches so much that they gave Mack Brown glowing references when he called them about Diaz to get him out of the conference. Bo Davis was hired away from Alabama to teach our defensive tackles that it is okay to have more than one on the team.

One of the most important hires was Bennie Wylie as Strength and Conditioning coach in charge of football. Gone are the days of the strength and conditioning coach watching telenovelas in his office with his feet propped up on the desk and a box of donuts perched on his stomach while his senior players play Angry Birds instead of lifting weights. In are the days of former UT players that are now in the NFL tweeting that Wylie’s workouts are some of the hardest they’ve ever seen, a freak that runs with every group during the day, lifts weights with his defensive linemen, does push-ups for fun and then goes and saves a box of puppies from a burning building just to keep active. Want proof of Wylie’s skills? Senior linebacker Kennan Robinson bench pressed 385 pounds last summer…this summer that number is 455 pounds.

But you could have the 1992 Green Bay Packers coaching staff (Holmgren, Mariucci, Reid, Rhodes, Jauron, Gruden) take over the team and it wouldn’t improve that much if the roster wasn’t improved. Significant holes at the skill positions on offense were evident, as was attrition to graduation in the secondary. Poor habits in recruiting led to a dearth of upperclassmen that could contribute to a winning team, thus the old standard of “bleeding for the program” was shown the door for the *gasp* novel concept of having players earn their spot on the depth chart, no matter what class they were.

That direction in the Spring and Summer camps led to more than two dozen underclassmen being named in the two deep released this week, including Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron at running back and Jaxson Shipley and John Harris at wide receiver. Upper classmen on the offensive line were passed up by guys like Dominic Espinosa and Trey Hopkins. Defensive guys like Quandre Diggs and Adrian Phillips found themselves with early playing time as well.

Of course the most visible and most interesting roster decision would be who would be the quarterback against Rice. While Gilbert is the most celebrated, he had the worst year for a Texas quarterback since…Richard Walton? Marty Cherry? Gilbert threw 17 interceptions to only 10 touchdowns. He failed to impress anyone in the Spring Game, and early reports in albeit closed to the public Summer practices had him lagging behind Case McCoy and true freshman David Ash in the quarterback battle.

Midway through summer camp, however, McCoy started to show that last names don’t earn starting jobs and Ash started to actually act like a true freshman while Gilbert began to show signs of grasping the reins and running. He had a solid second scrimmage followed by a solid week of practice and therefore was named the starting quarterback by Harsin earlier this week…to a round of face palms by some Texas fans.

But if we’re to blame Greg Davis for everything from the failed offense in 2010 to the debt ceiling crisis to Rebecca Black releasing “Friday” to Wally Pryor getting fired to shooting J.R. Ewing, we must accept the fact that Gilbert could have simply been the victim of a failed transition to a different offense, one the offensive coordinator didn’t even want to run, a failed running game and the worst offensive line in the Mack Brown era at Texas.

Gilbert will surely have a short leash in 2011, and he damn well should after showing the propensity for turning the ball over in 2010. We are giving everyone a clean slate this year, but at the same time that means that hardly anyone has any capital built up with this team as well.

It is time to progress from Texas high school legend to viable starting quarterback for the University of Texas, and obviously this coaching staff believes that he can do just that…and without seeing one practice this summer, shouldn’t we be inclined to trust this “super staff”?

Gilbert will be fine. The offensive line is better, the running game is showing signs of life, and he has viable targets that want to catch the ball. He has two fine teachers for the position in Harsin and Applewhite. Unlike last year, he has every resource available to him. It isn’t like he forgot to play football in the last three years. It is sink or swim time. Swim, and you can become a Longhorn legend and every bad thing is forgotten. We’ve learned that from your two predecessors. Sink, and well, the team has other options.

Obviously this year is a crossroads year for Mack Brown and the Texas program. Brown has built enough credibility here to plan his own exit strategy, but at the same time the program sits on the precipice of falling into the same trap of mediocrity that befell Nebraska, Miami, Michigan and Florida State in the past decade. While nobody realistically expects this team to challenge for a conference title or a BCS Bowl berth, that should certainly be the goal of a prestigious program that should never strive for anything less.

There is no fall guy on the coaching staff this year. The talent is better. This squad will be as well prepared physically and emotionally going into the season as any dominant Texas team that preceded it in the modern era.

But what about the mental state? Is this team prepared to bind together, to put individual goals on the backburner while Texas football is reconstructed from the ground level up?

It appears so. They are saying all the right things. But we shall see for ourselves starting Saturday come 7 o’clock central.

Live together…or die alone.

On to the games...

South Florida @ Notre Dame -10.5:

Skip Holtz, who can actually speak English, brings his South Florida Bulls (made up, HBO fake college name) to South Bend for the first ever meeting between these two schools. It is year two for Brian Kelly, who looks to build upon last year’s bowl win over Miami. Dayne Crist is back under center for the Fighting Irish, who return 9 starters on offense for a team that was inconsistent on offense last season.

BJ Daniels is the quarterback for South Florida (UT fan favorite Darrell Scott will get time at tailback for USF), and while talented, he is hobbled and the Bulls will likely need him to be outstanding to go into South Bend and escape with a win. Look for Notre Dame to win…but South Florida keeps it close.

Notre Dame 27 South Florida 20
ATS – South Florida
SU – Notre Dame

Boise State -3.5 vs. Georgia:

Boise State is no stranger to marquee openers, having beat Oregon in 2008 at Autzen and Virginia Tech last year at FedEx Field. This year, however, they are the favorite (at least ranking-wise) and have to feel a bit like the hunted at this point.

Boise is known for great offense, but their defense finished second in the country last year and they return seven starters from that squad, including five in the front seven. Georgia, decimated by attrition and injury at running back won’t be able to beat the Broncos on the ground.

Georgia? How knows? They went 6-7 last year, finishing the regular season winning five out of seven with their only losses coming to Florida in overtime and at Auburn. But those wins were against Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Idaho State and Georgia Tech. They then fell completely on their face against Central Florida, losing 10-6 in the Liberty Bowl.

If Georgia pulls off the upset here they might have recovered from a couple of down years, but people keep counting out Boise and they keep rising to the occasion. Kellen Moore is for real, while Andy Murray….the jury is still out.

Boise State 28 Georgia 17
ATS – Boise State
SU – Boise State

LSU -4 vs. Oregon:

This was to be the Jordan Jefferson vs. Cliff Harris show until Jordan Jefferson auditioned for the Dallas Cowboys’ open placekicker job in a Baton Rouge establishment and Cliff Harris went out with Cheech and Chong then decided to audition for NASCAR on a quiet Oregon highway. Okay, it was never a battle involving Jefferson, but I couldn’t shoehorn that joke in there without that premise. Feel free to pepper the word allegedly throughout that paragraph.

All the talk is about Oregon’s backfield, but they lost three starters on an offensive line that requires smarts and repetition. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some growing pains while that line gels. Also troublesome for Oregon is the fact that they don’t have the best record away from Autzen Stadium, having lost to Boise State and Stanford on the road in 2009, losing to Ohio State in the 2010 Rose Bowl and last year’s BCS Championship Game to Auburn. Their next big win away from Oregon will be their first, and do you really trust that win to come against a big SEC opponent?

However, LSU has their own troubles, making a late run for the Fulmer Cup this summer. Jarrett Lee gets the start at quarterback, and if it seems like he has been there forever, he has, having started for LSU before the Louisiana Purchase went through and opened up the recruiting fields.

Seriously though, LSU’s defense returns seven starters to a unit that held Auburn to 24 points and kept the Aggies to seven second-half points in the Cotton Bowl. They have fast, athletic linebackers and defensive backs, so if the Oregon line does open holes for the backfield they should have the personnel to keep them at the second level.

Lee manages the game and LSU comes up with the win….but by how much?

LSU 20 Oregon 17
ATS – Oregon
SU – LSU

TCU -5.5 @ Baylor:

Casey Pachall replaces Andy Dalton under center, some questions about his maturity linger, but he has taken command of the huddle this summer and has shown the ability to step right in for Dalton with minimal drop-off. The question is an offensive line that features a converted tight end starting at left tackle and has the potential to be a landmine.

Baylor is set-up to have their best season in school history if their defense (led by new coordinator Phil Bennett) doesn’t get in the way. They set offensive records last year for total offense (6,179 yards), passing yards (3,649) and total points (405)and return Robert Griffin III and four starters on the offensive line that have 77 starts between them. They did lose Josh Gordon to stupidity and Jay Finley to graduation, but Kendall Wright can be a top receiver and a running back by committee will work when you have the talent at other positions.

TCU isn’t the dominant team that they were last year, but they still have the talent to make a decent run. Baylor has to win a game against a top opponent until people start to take them seriously. They lost this game in Fort Worth last year, 45-10.

TCU 34 Baylor 21
ATS – TCU
SU – TCU

SMU @ Texas A&M -15.5:

In one of the more interesting games of the weekend, we get to see how Texas A&M likes being the hunted, how they handle the raised expectations and more importantly, how they handle the distractions of the SEC movement? A&M could have snuck up on some people last year, especially when Ryan Tannehill was handed the job at mid-season with little fanfare, but this year teams have had a full off-season to study tape and prepare.

This is June Jones’s fourth year at SMU, and while the Mustangs have been to back-to-back bowl games, there is a feeling that you would have hoped there would have been more at this point. The Mustangs lost five of their last eight games last year, including a 16-14 loss to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl in their own stadium. If the Mustangs are to make the next step, which they hope is a shot at Big 12 membership, they’ll need to have a breakthrough season. That could get an excellent start with a win at Kyle Field.

The trouble is that SMU hasn’t won a non-conference road game since 1998, hasn’t beaten Texas A&M since 1984 and is only 3-9 in non-conference games under Jones.

If there was a problem with the Aggies last season (well, despite the obvious), it was their pass defense. They ranked 89th in the country, allowing 234 yards per game. And that was with Von Miller pressuring the quarterback.

Look for A&M to put up some points, but SMU can too. If SMU keeps a handle on the football, this one could still be somewhat of a contest in the fourth quarter.

Texas A&M 34 SMU 20
ATS – SMU
SU – Texas A&M

Rice @ Texas -24:

Rice has some weapons that should be able to give them a good enough season to feel good about themselves and possibly get into bowl eligibility.

But c’mon.

Texas has a lot of questions, but they should still be able to steamroll a team like Rice, especially when everyone on this roster has been looking forward to this game since Thanksgiving night of 2010, and every coach has had it circled since January. This is no warm-up game, it is a confidence builder to set the stage for a tougher than usual September slate against BYU and UCLA.

What should we want to see here? Obviously we’d like to see Gilbert have a great game, not a solid game, a great game, while showing that we have a viable rushing attack that can do what it is supposed to do against lesser squads. We would like to see a defense be aggressive yet disciplined, getting to the quarterback without the secondary looking completely lost with the air-raid Cougars coming to town next week.

Texas 38 Rice 7
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas