Wednesday, October 27, 2010

The Week That Will Be (10.30.2010)

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 3-3 SU
For the Year: 18-26-4 (.409) ($1020) ATS 31-17 (.646) SU


What we learned last week:

We learned that with a road game at Michigan the toughest test the rest of the way for Wisconsin, they will really be cussing that loss to Michigan State earlier in the year…

We learned that everyone in the country can ask at one time, “How did UCLA beat Texas in Austin?” and then 48 hours later they say, at one time, “Oh yeah…”

We learned that the Cam Newton For Heisman train is picking up steam, and if that excites anyone outside the state of Alabama congratulations…

We learned that Justin Blackmon continues the long tradition of Oklahoma State wide receivers making bad decisions…and we learned that yes it is possible to throw for more than 100 yards on Nebraska…

We learned that Bob Stoops will punt late in the game because he has so much confidence in his defense that he doesn’t want to lose by double digits…

And finally we learned that yes, Texas, that other team has scholarship players as well.

Anyhow…

When Gabriel blows his horn I know things may not go my way…
- The Old 97’s Here’s To The Halcyon


No kidding.

Of course not even in the deeper realms of my brain did I ever think that Iowa State would beat a team in Austin that just nine months ago was playing in the national championship game, but the reality is that it happened, and this team is in deep trouble.

Let’s just hope that it isn’t the program that is in trouble.

There is a difference.

Shame on me for being arrogant enough to not even give Iowa State the dignity of breaking down the match-ups last week, but when you lose your last two games by a combined score of 120-27, I put the chances of the Cyclones coming into Austin and stealing a victory at about .5 percent.

But they didn’t come into Austin and steal a victory, they earned it, and they kicked our ass up and down the field.

All of their guys beat the man lining up across from them. Their coaching staff looked at the film from the UCLA and Oklahoma losses and actually came up with the novel idea to incorporate some of those principles to their game plan for this week.

Craig Way was surprised that Iowa State came out in a hurry-up offense, one that they hadn’t run all year. Got it from Oklahoma. Those 199 rushing yards? Mostly on plays stolen from the UCLA playbook.

Mack Brown said all of the right things in his post-game press conference, and reiterated them in his Monday press conference. He talked about how the cocky and arrogant attitude that permeated the team before the game “scared him to death” and that he tried to get the message across to the team all week about how anyone in the Big 12 can jump up and bite you.

He mentioned that the coaching staff educated the team on the city of Ames, their school colors and mascot, because Iowa State was an unfamiliar opponent from that wasteland that is the Big 12 North.

Perhaps his coaching staff should have been coming up with a viable game plan.

An offense that is on pace to be the worst offense since the 1991 squad led by David McWilliams went back to the horizontal passing game that has gotten them absolutely nowhere this season. Gone was the innovation from the Nebraska game plan, back was the first through four pages of the Texas playbook that have been dog-eared since 1998.

The Cyclones had given up 1,078 passing yards (nearly 2/3 of a mile) in the month of October and this coaching staff thought that the best plan of action would be to nickel and dime them up the field.

More like peso and peso.

A Cyclone offense that the week before against Oklahoma (their worst defense in the Bob Stoops era) managed 10 first downs, 183 yards and zero points grabbed a 14-3 lead in Austin in the first half.

And don’t give me this “the defense was tired because of the offensive ineptitude” load of garbage.

Iowa State, dude. Iowa State.

Somewhere out there at least one Texas fan has criticized Greg Davis after every single game of the Mack Brown Era, but for some reason Will Muschamp gets a pass.

Where is this “best defense of the Mack Brown Era” that we were supposedly going to see this year?

Rice, a team that has averaged 22.5 points this year, put up 17 on Texas. Wyoming grabbed yet another first half lead. Texas Tech was held in check, but this is the worst Tech team in years. Oklahoma had a 14-0 lead in Dallas before most had downed their last wax paper cup of beer. Nebraska was impressive…but Saturday was a trainwreck.

It is time to admit that this year has been a colossal failure from every member of this coaching staff. Not individual coaches on any one side of the ball. All of them.

But yes, if we must pick a villain this offense has been abhorrent. Appalling. Atrocious. Beastly. Disastrous. Ghastly. Harrowing. Vile.

The offense is averaging 23.6 points per game, which would be a full 10 points per game lower than the next worst offense in the Greg Davis/Mack Brown tenure, the 2002 team that averaged 33.76 points per game and went through a five game stretch in the middle of the season where they didn’t score more than 27 points in any one game.

This team hasn’t scored more than 24 points since Wyoming in week two, a span of five games.

Not one single running back has stepped up over the course of the season. The same could be said about the receiver corps. The offensive line has been awful.

And Garrett Gilbert has not been good…but at least he has the excuse of youth.

They haven’t been helped by a coaching staff that thought that this team had a stable of running backs that was good enough to run the Alabama offense, despite the 1,099 combined rushing yards between the three of them a year ago. The staff spent the entire off-season implementing an offense built around a power attack when they have a soft offensive line leading the way. An entire off-season spent implementing an offense that goes against everything your quarterback has learned in his football life.

So here we are, a team without an identity on Halloween weekend, a 4-3 record in the books and not a “sure thing” win the rest of the way.

Don’t you dare look past Florida Atlantic after this past weekend.

Gone are the goals of the national championship, the Big 12 Championship, the Big 12 South championship.

All we are left with are Texas state title hopes.

Print the t-shirts!

It would be one thing if this was a young team that was in a transition year, depending on youth at most positions, but as we’ve gone through before that simply isn’t the case.

And I don’t care if we were lining up a team of sophomores and freshmen, with the accolades that these recruiting class get they should be able to beat Iowa State in Austin.

So what are we left with? A program that is at a crossroads.

I’m not fearful of a Miami or Florida State-like drop-off here. The team still has multitudes of talent at key positions on both sides of the ball, and more is coming in every year.

I am worried about a coaching staff that seems to be complacent, one that much like a tenured college professor isn’t worried about the ramifications of not performing up to par on his job.

I’m worried about a team that for the second or third time in the past five years has the attitude that just because they played in a national championship game as an underclassman that they’ll get back there again just by showing up to the stadium on Saturday.

The problems are fixable. Garrett Gilbert will be fine. The talent pipeline is still very viable, full of talented, hungry guys that want the same success that the others before them have achieved, guys like Malcolm Brown who would start on Saturday against Baylor if he was afforded eligibility a year early.

But it is going to take a lot of hard work, and it isn’t going to happen overnight.

It is going to take a player leadership component that this team does not have right now.

And frankly, it might take some new coaches in certain positions.

But getting angry and getting productive are two different things.

We need more of the latter.

On to the games…

Michigan State @ Iowa -6.5:

In the few years that I’ve been doing this column, I’m pretty sure that I’ve written about Iowa more times this year than the other years combined. Does that mean the Big 10 is relevant again?

Debate that one among yourselves, but what isn’t debatable is that Michigan State is having a hell of a season, but aren’t we all kind of waiting for the other shoe to drop with this team? Obviously Vegas does if they’re making them almost a touchdown underdog against two loss Iowa.

The Spartans don’t do any one thing great, their offense is above average, their defense is above average, they do takeaway more balls than they giveaway, but I watch a lot of college football and I couldn’t tell you much about them.

This is the time of the year where teams start to look ahead and think, “if we beat so and so, then we have these teams at home….we can do this!”

Or not.

Iowa 24 Michigan State 21
ATS – Michigan State
SU – Iowa

Auburn -7 @ Mississippi:

The same principle applies to Auburn here, but they do do a few things great, namely run the football with Cam Newton…and Cam Newton.

The problem with Cam Newton left and Cam Newton right and Cam Newton straight ahead is that some team is going to figure you out…can that be Mississippi?

The Rebels gave up 197 rushing yards to Arkansas last week, but held Alabama to 100 yards rushing on 34 carries the week before, and while they didn’t have the offense to keep up with Alabama that night, I think we can all agree that Auburn doesn’t have the Crimson Tide defense.

No, it won’t be the fourth straight week that #1 goes down, but Houston Nutt always manages at least one great game a season.

Auburn 34 Mississippi 31
ATS – Mississippi
SU – Auburn

Oregon -7 @ USC:

Okay, I spent all last weekend telling my buddies that Oregon was going undefeated…but this one has me re-thinking that.

Perhaps I shouldn’t go against an Oregon team that just last week embarrassed me by making UCLA look like they were coached by Wade Phillips, but…

USC has had two weeks to prepare. This is their bowl game. They don’t have a defense worth a damn (87th in the country), but Matt Barkley has been terrific (20 TD to 4 INT), they have the power backs to wear down Oregon and the Ducks have been a little shaky away from Autzen (beat lowly Washington State by 20 but was a tight game at the half; beat Arizona State by 11 despite five Sun Devil turnovers).

Oh what the hell.

USC 41 Oregon 38
ATS – USC
SU – USC

Oklahoma State -4.5 @ Kansas State:

Oklahoma State will be playing without Justin Blackmon, who is suspended for being a dumbass, but if you’ve seen Kansas State’s defense this year, we know that the Cowboys could line up that mascot of theirs with the big hat and he’d put up 85 yards.

Oklahoma State hasn’t won in Manhattan since 1988, but that changes this weekend.

Oklahoma State 34 Kansas State 21
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Missouri @ Nebraska -7.5:

This one might decide the Big 12 North, as Missouri goes outside the state of Missouri for only the second time this year.

Can the Tigers build on that Oklahoma win last week? The defense was once again key, as they held DeMarco Murray and the Sooners to 99 yards rushing on 25 carries…but stopping the Sooners rush attack and Nebraska’s is a different story.

I’m having a hard time seeing Blaine Gabbert going into Lincoln and passing it all over the field, and despite their showing against Oklahoma last week they’re not a great rushing team. Their defense will hang tight, but will eventually let up.

Nebraska 24 Missouri 20
ATS – Missouri
SU – Nebraska

Baylor @ Texas -7.5:

The last time Texas lost back-to-back home games in consecutive weeks? 1938 under head coach Dana X. Bible, with a 7-6 loss to SMU followed by a 14-3 loss to Baylor the very next week. And although our offense seems to be that bad sometimes, that Longhorn squad went 1-8 and scored 52 points all year.

Baylor comes into the contest with the nation’s 5th best total offense, 5th best passing offense and are 16th in the country in sacks allowed. They will pass it up and down the field on you, and when the pass doesn’t work, Robert Griffin III will run on you (384 yards rushing and 6 touchdowns on the year).

Their defense isn’t great (79th in total defense and 84th in pass defense), but we all know that doesn’t matter this week.

Baylor last beat Texas in 1997, and this is by far their best chance to do it since then. I really wish I could come out and say that this is the week it all changes and we come out firing and actually score more than 24 points, but what the hell evidence is there of that?

I see Texas scoring somewhere around 20-24 points in this game…can we hold Baylor to that much? Perhaps. Texas does feast on pass first/run second type teams, but if the offense doesn’t help them out, or worse, turns the ball over, then we’re in trouble, because Baylor will capitalize on our mistakes.

I don’t think Texas loses three straight home games, but at this point it wouldn’t shock me. The problem when you lose games like last week is that it wasn’t because of talent, it was purely the give-a-shit factor.

Will Texas give a shit this weekend? I sure hope so, because if not D.X. Bible will have that ugly blip off this record.

Texas 24 Baylor 21
ATS – Baylor
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

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For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Texas Rangers World Series tickets.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

The Week That Will Be (10.23.2010)

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 2-4 SU
For the Year: 16-22-4 (.421) ($800) ATS 28-14 (.667) SU


What we learned last week:

We learned that while last week’s Auburn/Arkansas game was fun to watch on television, and Auburn is now 7-0, they won’t be there for long if they continue to let back-up quarterback-level quarterbacks throw for 332 yards and four touchdowns…

We learned that while Denard Robinson is the flashy one, Ricky Stanzi continues to have an outstanding year after throwing for 248 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in a 38-28 victory over Michigan. Stanzi trails only Kellen Moore and Cam Newton in passing efficiency…

We learned that Wisconsin can manage 330 yards of offense but still knock off the #1 team in the country by two touchdowns. College football in 2010, ladies and gentlemen…

We learned that Tommy Tuberville’s defense first approach is failing, as Oklahoma State rolled up 581 yards on the Red Raiders and coasted after getting out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter…

We learned that Mike Sherman will not last long in College Station, as the Aggies again haven’t shown a lick of improvement from last season, and in fact in many ways have regressed…

And finally we learned that Taylor Martinez might be able to beat Deion Sanders in a footrace and would destroy Chuck Norris in a street fight, but he’s no challenge for Will Muschamp.

Anyhow…

That’s what we’ve been looking for all season.

Yeah yeah, you can come out now and say that Nebraska wasn’t really all that good, blah blah blah, but we had plenty around these parts saying last week that Texas didn’t even need to show up because they had no chance.

For all of their deficiencies at times, this coaching staff has shown the ability time and time again in the past to get past challenging times, and that this team will never give up on a season.

And I couldn’t have been prouder of that on Saturday evening.

But Saturday means nothing if Texas comes out in the second half of the season and pulls much of the same tricks that they did in the first half, because although five of those games are at home, it would make each of these team’s seasons to beat Texas in their own house.

The ultimate goal might be out the window, but there are still plenty of secondary goals within reach, and much like the end of 2004 or the bowl game in 2007, momentum can carry on to the next season.

So let’s finish it out right.

Unfortunately we have reached the halfway point of the 2010 season. The last few weeks have saved what was looking to be a very generic college football season, so let’s take a look at the first half and how the post-season awards might shape up at the end of the year:

The Chaps Girl Award (MVP) – Cam Newton (QB), Auburn

In a tight race between Newton and Kellen Moore, give me the guy that has done it in the SEC, running for 176 and throwing for two touchdowns against South Carolina and rushing for 188 and 3 touchdowns against Arkansas last week. This might look like a stupid pick six weeks down the line, but for right now, he’s done the most in the toughest arena.

The Herschel Walker Award (Freshman of the Year) – Taylor Martinez (QB), Nebraska

Martinez had an awful game against Texas, but Will Muschamp will make a lot of guys look silly. Martinez has transformed what was a woeful offense in 2009 against every opponent they played into one of the most feared offenses in the country this year. Once Martinez learns to throw the ball (or his receivers catch it), watch out.

The Eric Taylor Award (Coach of the Year) – Chip Kelly, Oregon

Oregon will drop a game this year due to their horrid defense, but Oregon lost their quarterback before the season started, was doomed to be a 7 or 8 win team without him, and have already done that with several weeks to go. The Ducks make their opponents look about as silly as the Oregon uniforms, and that is saying a lot.

The Wade Phillips Award (Worst Coach of the Year) – John Blake, North Carolina

The man isn’t even a head coach but he has destroyed yet another program and will cost Butch Davis his job. Sounds like a crappy coaching job to me.

The Surprise Team of the Year Award – Michigan State

We’ve already mentioned Oregon, but Michigan State is 7-0 for the first time since Don Draper…spoiler alert….threw his life away by marrying that big tooth broad to marry him in 1966…spoiler alert over.

Head coach Mark Dantonio had a heart attack earlier in the year, but shook it off and was back in the stadium in no time. The Spartans still have road trips to Iowa and Penn State on the schedule, but this season already is a success for those guys.

The Disappointing Team of the Year Award – Take Your Pick

Texas, Florida, USC, Penn State…At least three of those teams have a first year starter, so they have a valid excuse. USC lost a lot as well, though. Suffice it to say that when you have teams like Boise State, TCU, Michigan State and Utah in the Top 10 at this point of the year people are going to wonder what happened to the premier programs.

The (Insert Failed Sound From The Price Is Right Here) Award – Virginia Tech losing to James Madison

Boise State thought they had their signature win (and still do), but the Hokies went out the very next week and lost to James Madison, who is 4-2 in FCS, having lost to Delaware and New Hampshire. Now that the Hokies have reeled off five wins in a row, people are talking up that win again…but c’mon, James Madison. Presidents should win elections, not football games.

The HornMafia Is Not Nostradamus Award – His Take on Tim Brewster

Aside from my sub-par record against the spread this year, there is this from this column two years ago:

The Texas Karma Award – Tim Brewster, Minnesota

The former Texas coach (and father of Texas safety Nolan Brewster) has the Gophers at 6-1 (after going 1-11 last year), with the lone loss coming in Columbus to Ohio State. With no Penn State on the schedule, Minnesota could be looking at a 10 win season, which might get Brewster some looks at the bigger schools out there. You think the Aggies could have hired him?


Um, yeah.

The Les Miles Award – Les Miles, LSU

The guy should really be a Hollywood screenwriter.

The I’m Going to Bow Up Really Big, But Hold Me Back, Hold Me Back Award – Nebraska

You know that guy. The guy that is always looking for a fight, but as he tries to start one, he runs into his buddy’s arm and yells “hold me back! Hold me back!” Well, Nebraska wanted a fight all off-season, but when it came time to exchange blows, they wilted like, well, Nebraska.

The We’re the Champions! Wait, We Have to Play Next Week Award – South Carolina

The Gamecocks looked like a shoo-in for the SEC title game after blasting Alabama, and then they come out the next week and drop one to Kentucky, who snapped a three game losing streak with that win. C’mon Steve Spurrier, allow us to hate you again.

The Pete Rose to the Hall of Fame Award – The BCS Argument

Ugh. It is about this time of the year that I start rooting for Boise State and TCU to lose because I’m sick of the Pete Rose to the Hall of Fame/Barry vs. Emmitt argument that you hear 100 times a day. It ain’t changing, people, so you might as well embrace the system and hope it isn’t the team that you root for that gets screwed. I get the angst that the system causes, but I was already seeing the “1 vs. 8” potential match-up articles this week. Sick of it.

On to the games...

Wisconsin @ Iowa -5.5:

This is looking like Wisconsin is in a South Carolina-like situation here, no, except that Iowa is a lot better than Kentucky. Iowa has only given up 17 points at home all season, and I don’t see Wisconsin coming in here and doing enough to get the upset.

Iowa 24 Wisconsin 13
ATS – Iowa
SU – Iowa

UCLA @ Oregon -25:

We all know that Oregon’s offense is steam-rolling everyone, averaging 54 points per game. Their defense has been porous against teams with a pulse, but they’ve been opportunistic, ranking 2nd in the country in turnover margin.
The question is whether UCLA can put enough together on the ground to shorten the game here. I don’t think they can do it nearly enough to win the ballgame. This has traditionally been a close game (neither team has won by more than 19 points in the last 10 matchups).

They just don’t have the offense to keep up with the Ducks.

Oregon 44 UCLA 24
ATS – UCLA
SU – Oregon

LSU @ Auburn -6:

Ah, can the luck of Les hold up? Auburn has lost three in a row in this series and last year was held to 193 total offensive yards.

I’m not sure that happens again this year, as Lester has to drop one at some point.

Auburn 31 LSU 17
ATS – Auburn
SU – Auburn

Nebraska -5.5 @ Oklahoma State:

OSU is 6-0 after their win in Lubbock last week, doing it with offense as they are 2nd in the country in scoring and total offense. Sophomore receiver Justin Blackmon leads the nation in receiving yards per game and is tied for the scoring lead as well.

But they run into a Nebraska defense that might have yielded the rushing yards in their loss to Texas but held Garrett Gilbert to 62 yards passing. They also held Jake Locker to 71 yards earlier in the season.

The Cowboys would probably have some luck by sticking to the run and giving the ball to Kendall Hunter 30 times in this game, but they haven’t done that all season.

Good defense usually beats good offense, so I look for Nebraska to recover here and give the OSU offense some fits.

Nebraska 34 Oklahoma State 21
ATS – Nebraska
SU – Nebraska

Oklahoma - 3 @ Missouri:

Does anyone really believe that Oklahoma is the #1 team in the country, like the BCS poll states that they are? Might they be the worst #1 team in the BCS era?

They barely beat Utah State and Air Force at home (don’t give me this crap about AF being good, yes they’re good, but they’re not Oklahoma in Norman good), struggle with Cincinnati and then need Texas to shoot itself in the foot multiple times to win by 8 in Dallas.

Landry Jones has been efficient, DeMarco Murray looks like his old self, but the defense isn’t the OU defense of old, giving up 227 yards through the air this year.

Enter Missouri, who I wrote off last week as another Big 12 North team that is solid for half a year then starts playing road games and folds. No, going to College Station and winning a ballgame isn’t exactly going into Lambeau Field in January, but the Tigers impressed me by holding a Texas A&M offense that is averaging 30 points per game to 9 points.

In fact, this Missouri defense hasn’t given up more than 24 points in any single game this year, and only gave up 19 points in their other three games in Columbia combined. They’re fourth in the country in sacks, and expect defensive end Aldon Smith back from a fractured leg to join that unit. Smith only had 10 tackles, three tackles for loss and two sacks against Illinois in the season opener.

If Blaine Gabbert plays within himself, and if the defense can make Landry Jones make the plays with his arm instead of Murray with his feet, then Missouri can certainly pull off the upset here. But…does that paper tiger Missouri team finally show up here?

Probably. Oklahoma is the greatest team in the history of ever…right?

Oklahoma 34 Missouri 28
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Iowa State @ Texas -20.5:

I’m not going to go into how Iowa State can beat Texas, because they can’t, unless all three Texas quarterbacks sleep through their alarm for the 11 AM start and Texas is forced to start James Kirkendoll at QB while Coach Rucker pounds on Gilbert’s door…

The Cyclones looked to be more trouble earlier in the year when they beat Texas Tech in Ames, but since then they have given up 120 points in two games and nearly got several bookmakers in Vegas fired for only making them a touchdown underdog to Utah two weeks ago.

They now rank 104th in the country in total offense, 112th in total defense, 104th in scoring defense and 112th in the country in sacks.

They’re bad. Jerrod Johnson 2010 bad.

Nope, what I will talk about here, like I do in a lot of games like this, is talk about what I would like to see from this game:

A.) Garrett Gilbert showing us a glimpse of the future. Sure, we’ve seen halves of games here and there, saw an impressive stretch in the second quarter against Wyoming, but I want to see a dominating effort against a team that lets you dominate them like a New York governor. They gave up 334 yards to Landry Jones, 325 to Jordan Wynn and 377 to Taylor Potts. I want to see similar numbers.
B.) Special Teams outburst. The Texas return teams have been dreadful this year, with nice punt returns being negated by miscues and fumbles. Our kickoff return unit ranks 106th in the country. It is past time to see some improvement.
C.) Offensive Line continuing their play from Nebraska. The offensive line dominated for long stretches of time against Nebraska, let’s see it again. And again. And again.
D.) Defense doing what they does. To paraphrase Rangers manager Ron Washington, keep it up. Mack Brown mentioned this week that some players injured against Nebraska last week might not play this week (Keenan Robinson?), so use this time like you did last week, Jordan Hicks…shine.

Let’s not see the 2010 team that at times has been lost, and at other times flat out un-effective. If this team wants to get where it wants to be in the future, it must start dominating games like this.

Texas 45 Iowa State 10
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

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For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Texas Rangers…playoff tickets.

Thursday, October 14, 2010

The Week That Will Be (10.16.2010)

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 3-3 SU
For the Year: 14-18-4 (.438) ($580) ATS 26-10 (.) SU


What we learned last week:

We learned to slow down on the Denard Robinson for Heisman campaign, as he threw 3 interceptions, two of them in the red zone as Michigan once again lost to State…

We learned that you might as well just enjoy the absurdity of Les Miles, because it won’t be around forever…

We learned that South Carolina can play a perfect game, sack Greg McElroy 7 times and yes, Stephen Garcia does have some talent…

We learned that Tommy Tuberville had better give up the surprise onside kick, because at this point it is only a surprise if the other team doesn’t score on it…

We learned that we need an open ballot on those that voted Jerrod Johnson the Big 12 offensive player of the year this pre-season, because they need to be excluded from voting for any major award ever again…

And finally we learned that the Bill Snyder Era Take 2 is a far cry from the first installment, but I’m sure they’re saving it all for Texas.

Anyhow…

”Blessed is the man who trusts in the Lord…” Jeremiah 17:7

Where were you when it happened?

Which time?

In 2009 I was in the upper deck of the Death Star, thinking about how in the hell I’m going to use my American Airlines voucher that I’m going to need when I cancel my flight to Orange County for January 6th. Screaming obscenities that will not be found anywhere in Jeremiah 17:7, I saw with my own eyes the second that was left on the clock when Colt McCoy’s errant pass fell incomplete, and had complete confidence that the officiating crew would see the same upstairs.

They did.

But, even though I had confidence in Hunter Lawrence, you never know what pressure will do to the soul of a human being. Jordan Shipley, being the consummate leader, whispered in his ear the above bible verse and Lawrence kicked the ball through the uprights and sent Texas to their second national title game in five years.

In 2006 I sat in the lower deck at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska and watched as the snow flakes started to fall, coinciding with a 49 yard touchdown pass from Zac Taylor to Brandon Jackson, and the snow started falling even harder when Marlon Lucky threw a 25 yard halfback pass to Nate Swift as Nebraska took their first lead of the second half, 20-19.

I remember looking up at the falling snow against the gray Nebraskan sky, the stadium literally shaking to its core as the blood-thirsty faithful Red finally felt that destiny was theirs, and remember thinking that Colt McCoy probably had never seen snow in his life but now had to lead his team down the field in the most hostile territory he would ever see.

And then it got worse.
A sack on 2nd and 8 forced the Longhorns into 3rd and long, which they did not convert, and Nebraska got the ball on their own 29, with 2:58 left in the game, get a first down and the ballgame is over.

And they did. But Aaron Ross put his helmet on the ball caught by Terrence Nunn, and UT was back in business, 1st and 10 at the Nebraska 44 yard line.

The snow stopped falling. Two pass plays to Quan Cosby got the Horns down to the 22 yard line. A Selvin Young rush got them down the 10 yard line. A couple of plays later, the drive stalled, and out trotted walk-on freshman Ryan Bailey to attempt a 22 yard field goal to win the game?

Who? “Who the F is Bailey?” I asked my buddy sitting next to me.

After the kick was good, it was Ryan F’ing Bailey.

I’m not going to regale you with tales of where I was during every Texas/Nebraska game of the Big 12 era, but suffice it to say that I can remember where I was for every one of them (in Lincoln in 2002 to see Nathan Vasher pick off Jamal Lord, in DKR when Mike Jones and Matthew McConaughey danced on the sidelines in 1999), when I would have to struggle to tell you where I was for every Texas/Missouri game, or every Texas/Kansas State game.

Saturday’s game between Texas and Nebraska is indeed the end of an era, one that I am sad to see go.

And it didn’t have to be this way.

Nebraska was the blue collar, still clinging to the option way of football when the Big 12 was formed in time for the 1996 season. And why not? The Huskers won three national championships in four years running that offense, but still were bothered by the wealth and arrogance (don’t you just love those two words together in Texas lore), displayed by the flashy Longhorns who were instrumental in the formation of the Big 12.

The Huskers would have been just fine beating up on Iowa State and Kansas each and every week, thank you, and didn’t need Texas coming into their conference and telling them how to run things and getting rid of their partial qualifiers.

I guarantee you if you get Representative Tom Osborne in a room without tape recorders, he’d have some choice words about Texas.

And why not? Texas beat the Huskers in the inaugural Big 12 Championship Game (another reason Osborne hated Texas, he wanted no part of conference championship games) as a three touchdown underdog rolled over the Cornhuskers, ending their hopes of a national title game berth. In 1998 Texas went up to Lincoln and was a 16.5 point underdog, but ended Nebraska’s 47 game home winning streak with a 20-16 victory led by Major Applewhite. In 2002 that win ended Nebraska’s 26 game home winning streak.

Texas cost them multiple shots at national championship runs, while they thought that they had dashed the hopes of the Longhorns last season, only for the refs to “correctly” put one second back on the clock so that Texas could kick a field goal in the Big 12 Championship game. Look long and hard over the Nebraska plains, but you won’t find that “correctly” anywhere in the news articles from this week.

So what does Nebraska do? Do they stick with it, knowing that the tide will turn at some point, that Texas’s “luck” will run out, that the league that has been around for 14 years is starting to mature?

Nope, they take their ball and go home.

Without even the decency to visit Austin one last time.

The Cornhuskers came into this conference with a chip on their shoulder, and will leave at the end of this academic year with a larger chip on their shoulder, fueled by their inability to defeat Texas but once in the sport they care about up there, football.

Nebraska came into this conference well respected behind the leadership and teachings of Osborne, the envy of a nation that saw that N on the helmets and was legitimately intimidated.

Nebraska leaves the conference by selling t-shirts with :01 on the back and an upside down Longhorn on the front, promoting a “RED OUT” months in advance (I saw plenty of red up there in my trips in 2002 and 2006) and other mockeries of their historical relevance usually reserved for teams wearing maroon and humping it out.

Even though Texas limps into this game with a two game losing streak, the city of Lincoln is obsessed with one thing and one thing only this week, and have been since December of last year.

Beat Texas.

To the Longhorns, this game shouldn’t be about getting a win over Nebraska to improve their record to 4-2 and get things back on track. That is a nice benefit as well, but the goal of the Longhorns this week should be to stick in Nebraska’s eye one last time.

Goodbye, and don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

Due to their early season struggles, Texas is in an unusual position – an underdog. And an overwhelming one at that.

In Vegas, 75-77% of the money is coming in on Nebraska to beat Texas by two scores or more.

When you get up on Saturday morning and turn on College Gameday to ogle Erin Andrews and cuss Lee Corso, prepare yourselves. Desmond Howard will make some outlandish statement about how Texas doesn’t belong on the same field as Nebraska. Kirk Herbstreit will throw out Taylor Martinez’s stats and predict Nebraska to make a statement to the rest of the country. Corso will say it will be closer than the experts think, but Nebraska will still win.

Every pundit on every broadcast signal from here to Saskatchewan will pick the Huskers to roll, that they will finally get over on Texas.

If we weren’t so arrogant, we’d start to get a complex about this.

The national pundits, and even most local pundits, might blow up Nebraska to be the best team in the country with their stud first year quarterback and hard hitting defense.

But the Longhorns don’t have to be the best team in the world on Saturday. From what we’ve seen so far this year, they aren’t in the same stratosphere of that title.

All they have to be is the best team on Saturday.

The post-game quotes in the UCLA and Oklahoma losses were rife with regret, saying that we should have done this, or should have done this sooner, or if we’d only cut down on those mistakes, we would have won the ballgame.

Leave it all on the field.

Saturday isn’t about this year. It is about taking pride in this program’s past and looking at that name across the front of your chest and knowing what those before you did, knowing that there is a privilege to wearing that uniform.

It is knowing that the team in the other locker room would like nothing more to embarrass you and taking that anger and channeling it into the right path.

This team has been tested. It is time to respond.

To borrow from the great Herb Brooks, great moments are made from great opportunities. Ryan Bailey, Derek Lewis, James Brown, Mike Jones, Major Applewhite, Brian White and Wane McGarity all took advantage of those opportunities.
Every play.

This day.

On to the games...

Arkansas @ Auburn -3.5:

This is a game of contrasting styles as Auburn brings the nation’s 8th best rushing attack while Arkansas brings the nation’s 3rd best passing game.

Auburn has struggled against the pass this year, giving up 239 yards per game in the air. They gave up 300 yard passing games to Arkansas State and South Carolina already this year. Mallett will feast here.

Arkansas 37 Auburn 31
ATS – Arkansas
SU – Arkansas

Iowa -3 @ Michigan:

Michigan struggled against Michigan State last week for long stretches of time. It doesn’t get any easier this week as Iowa brings the nation’s 2nd best rush defense.

Ricky Stanzi is quietly having a very good year, as he is third in the country in passing efficiency. A great defense and a smart quarterback that keeps the ball on his side of the field will win you a lot of games.

Iowa 27 Michigan 21
ATS – Iowa
SU – Iowa

Ohio State -4 @ Wisconsin:

A game of trends: Wisconsin is 25-3 in night home games since 1995…but Ohio State is 8-0 on the road against Top 25 teams recent years. Wisconsin hasn’t beaten Ohio State since 2004, and hasn’t beaten them at Camp Randall since 2003.

I look at a Wisconsin team that is living on name only, as they’ve struggled at home against teams they shouldn’t have (San Jose State, Arizona State) and let Minnesota move the ball last week.

With the nation’s #117 ranked schedule, Jim Tressel has probably been preparing for this game for weeks.

Ohio State 24 Wisconsin 16
ATS – Ohio State
SU – Ohio State

Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech -3.5:

The home team has won every game in this series since Tech won 49-30 in Stillwater in 2001. Which Oklahoma State team shows up here? The one that has feasted on weak defenses at home, or the one that continuously struggles on the road?

The Cowboys are giving up 290 yards per game through the air, and it doesn’t figure to get better in Lubbock against a Texas Tech team that is starting to find its offensive identity.

Texas Tech 41 Oklahoma State 34
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Texas Tech

Missouri @ Texas A&M -3.5:

It is a tale of ships passing in opposite directions, as Texas A&M has lost two in a row in ugly fashion, while Missouri stomped Colorado 26-0 last week to improve to 5-0.

But how impressive has Missouri been? Their best win is over 3-2 Illinois, and I’m not comfortable calling any win over a Ron Zook coached team an impressive win.

Jerrod Johnson already has more interceptions to this point than he had all of last season, but when he is on, he’s on. Missouri gets exposed as a, ahem, paper tiger.

Texas A&M 37 Missouri 28
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – Texas A&M

Texas @ Nebraska -9.5:

Oddly enough, I’m worried more about how the Texas defense handles the Nebraska offense than I am what the Texas offense does on Saturday afternoon.

If Texas is able to control Taylor Martinez and the rest of the Nebraska rushing attack, Texas can steal one here by doing just enough on offense and hoping for a game changing play on defense or special teams.

But that, of course, is easier said than done, as Nebraska is 2nd in the country in rushing offense, with Martinez averaging 147 yards per game on the ground himself.

But are those empty numbers?

Don’t get me wrong, Martinez has been impressive, as has the whole Nebraska attack, but let’s take a look at their opponents. Here are the rushing defenses that Nebraska has faced this year:

Western Kentucky # 111
Idaho # 63
Washington # 106
South Dakota State # 107 (in FCS)
Kansas State # 116

If you’re like me, you watched last Thursday’s beat down of Kansas State and was mortified of Martinez running untouched through KSU, knowing that KSU always has a solid defense…until this year.

They gave up 252 yards rushing to UCF. 171 to Iowa State. 166 to Missouri State. 193 to ...UCLA.

So yes, let us give all the respect that is due to Nebraska and their rushing attack, but they will face by far their best defense of the year this Saturday…if Texas has learned from the missed assignments and missed tackles that they suffered against UCLA.

We’ll see.

On offense, all, okay some, of the indications are that Texas plans to open things up, which we will all believe when we see it, but that is indeed good news if true.

Nebraska’s defense isn’t quite the dominating unit that it was last season, when it was 9th in total defense and 2nd in scoring defense, giving up 285 yards and 11 yards per game. But it is close.

This year they have been a bit more lenient, giving up 180 yards on the ground to Kansas State, 175 rushing yards to Washington and 179 to Western Kentucky.

Their sack numbers and tackles for loss are also down. They do feature the nation’s best pass defense statistically, with a secondary that will be the best Texas has seen or will see all year.

Greg Davis mentioned this week that the Cornhuskers only blitz about 16% of the time, so they’re a patient defense that will wait for you to make a mistake rather than one that will sell out and give up a big play.

This one all depends on which Texas team shows up. Will it be the one that didn’t give a damn against UCLA and let them run all over them? Will it be the conservative bunch that opened it up too late against Oklahoma? Or will it be the “nothing to lose” bunch that we all hope we see?

I expect Texas to play their best game of the year here. If that will be enough, I don’t know, but Nebraska has yet to be tested this year, and we’ll see what Taylor Martinez is all about right here.

I’m a homer, but you can’t write an article like this and then pick Nebraska to win, right?

Texas 24 Nebraska 21
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

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For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for the Texas Buy Off the Officials Fund.

Thursday, October 7, 2010

The Week That Will Be (10.09.2010)

Last Week: 2-3-1 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 12-14-4 (.462) ($360) ATS 23-7 (.767) SU


What we learned last week:

We learned that Nick Foles must be wrecking shop in Tucson, because he threw for 303 yards against an Iowa defense that has allowed a combined 17 points in the four games against opponents other than Arizona (including 3 in a hapless effort by Penn State on Saturday), who scored 34…

We learned that Oregon might not be able to stop a team, but they’ll take the ball away from you at some point and then score on you. A very impressive beginning to the season for the Ducks, but what happens when they play a team in their house that can also score?

We learned that Alabama is in a class by themselves. Florida looked like they were building something with an impressive win over Kentucky the week prior, but Alabama tore all of that down with a 31-6 rout on Saturday night. Again, who beats this team? Only Alabama can beat Alabama…

We learned that Mark Richt’s days in Athens might be numbered, as the Bulldogs fell to 1-4 with a loss to Colorado, despite the return of AJ Green (who had a ridiculous TD catch). With the meltdown on the football field, and the arrests off of it, you have to wonder if the Georgia players have simply tuned Richt out…

We learned that Jerrod Johnson might not be the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, an honor bestowed on him in the pre-season, but he might be the Big 12’s most exciting player, because you never know if he can score a touchdown for his own team or the other team on any given play…

And finally, we learned that hey, it isn’t possible to beat your rival in an emotional game when you commit 9 penalties, and it seemed like a lot more than that.

Anyhow…

Again, I don’t want to hear about how this is a “transition” year, that the Longhorns are “reloading” for another run in 2011 or 2012, that we’ll take our lumps this year and be ready to roar next year.

To paraphrase the great Norm Hitzges, that sounds like the droppings of a large farm animal.

16 of the 22 players in the two deep are juniors or seniors, so it isn’t like this team doesn’t have the seasoning of a national title run last year or a Fiesta Bowl victory in 2008.

Yes, some of the positions are young, such as quarterback, and perhaps defensive tackle.

But the running backs are juniors and sophomores who didn’t redshirt. The wide receivers are juniors and seniors, with a little bit of youth mixed in. An offensive line that boasts the nation’s 81st rushing attack has three seniors and a junior. The tight end is a senior.

Two seniors start at defensive end. The starting linebackers are juniors and seniors. Same for the defensive backfield.

Stop with the lame excuses.

This team should be better than they are. The players aren’t executing, and the coaches aren’t coaching.

Falling down 14-0 against Oklahoma because you act like the Sooners running the hurry up offense is a new wrinkle is absurd. They’ve only been doing it for three years.

Committing penalty after penalty after penalty, extending drives on defense and ending drives on offense isn’t youth. 9 penalties for 81 yards against Oklahoma. 8 for 75 yards against UCLA. 11 for 95 yards against Tech. It is an undisciplined wreck of a team.

Dropping punts and committing personal fouls on 3rd and 20 isn’t youth. It is bad coaching.

Having two of the fastest players in the country returning kicks for you, but ranking 98th in the country in kickoff returns is….bad coaching.

Being criticized for an absurd horizontal gameplan the week before against UCLA and coming out of the gates on Saturday (already down 7-0 mind you), with two horizontal passes just reeks of arrogance and stubbornness…and bad coaching.

Look, I hate to be the curmudgeon, but the simple fact of the matter is that the players are not getting the job done and the coaches aren’t doing the things needed to right the ship. We all saw problems back at Rice, and home against Wyoming and in the plains of Lubbock, but we just got called bad fans who cry when we win.

Fix it. Now.

I am 100% positive that this coaching staff can get it back on track, and we can even accomplish some smaller goals this year while building momentum for next year. We’ve seen them do it before.

But this “We’re Texas” attitude that we have around here sometimes has to go, and it has to be replaced by the humility of knowing that you are an unranked team along with about one hundred others entering this Saturday, with more talent on this roster than any one of those one hundred.

It won’t be easy. Nebraska is a fine football team who will be smelling blood in the water. Which makes them the perfect opponent to start the road back against.

Bye week? It should be hell week.

Some other random college football thoughts:

• Where are the upsets? Alabama, Ohio State, Boise State and Oregon have all gone through this season relatively unscathed, with Alabama the closest of those teams to getting beat (at Arkansas). Compare this to 2007 where Michigan, West Virginia, Rutgers, Florida, Kentucky, Penn State, Louisville, Oklahoma, Texas and USC were all ranked in the Top Ten and had lost at this point of the season. If we’re going to suck, I want to see some utter chaos, dammit.

• Isn’t it fun to guess which team Brent Musberger has money on each week? He sounded downright depressed when Oregon would score the other night…

You never know how the booty hole gonna act. – Texas Rangers manager Ron Washington. So true, Ron, so true.

• Adam James’s statistics this year: 0 catches, 0 yards. Good trade off, Tech.

• Les Miles. You don’t even need a punch line, do you? How can a team be 5-0 but everyone wants to fire the head coach? How bad is it going to be when one of these blunders actually costs his team a win…or two?

• If this had happened against Texas A&M, would the book stores start selling, “We Only Need Twelve Men” t-shirts?

• Don’t worry Boise, Oregon might have jumped you in the polls, but you get a chance to impress the nation this week against…Toledo. Okay, next week against…San Jose State. Louisiana Tech? Hawaii? Well you get three straight Friday night games in November, which tells you where you are in the college football landscape…but you get on TV. Congrats.

• Ohio State, with their yearly close game against Illinois, to be followed by a close win at Wisconsin next week. Yawn.

• How is a Top 10 team (Utah) less than a touchdown favorite at Iowa State this week? It’s either parity or Iowa State is better than we think (for sure better than Tommy Tuberville thought). Oh hell, we’re not going to lose to them, too, are we?

On to the games...

Michigan State @ Michigan -4.5:

The first match-up of undefeated teams in this series since 1999, this looks to be a good one as both teams come in playing well. The Spartans beat Wisconsin last week, while Denard Robinson put on another showcase against Indiana.

MSU’s defense has been decent this year, but they haven’t seen anything like what they’ll see Saturday from Robinson.

Michigan 38 Michigan State 31
ATS – Michigan
SU – Michigan

LSU @ Florida -6.5:

Well one team got their butts whipped last week, while the other probably feels like they lost the game. Neither of these teams have an offense, but Florida’s is just a tad bit better.

Florida 24 LSU 13
ATS – Florida
SU – Florida

Alabama -7 @ South Carolina:

If you’re hoping Alabama slips up somewhere along the way, this might be the best chance of that happening, as the only two other road games on the Crimson Tide schedule are Tennessee and LSU, and we all know what a mess those two teams are.

Alabama has shown no letdown despite losing a number of starters on the defensive side of the ball. South Carolina is trying to get things back together after a tough loss at Auburn two weeks ago.

South Carolina has some talent, and they’ve nearly pulled off some upsets in recent years, but Alabama is on a completely different level than the Gamecocks.

Alabama 27 South Carolina 16
ATS – Alabama
SU – Alabama

Baylor v. Texas Tech -2.5:

Texas Tech brings a 14 game winning streak into this series, but is reeling after a 52-38 loss at Iowa State last week, a game in which they fell down 24-0 in the first half. It was not the performance that Tech was looking for coming off a bye week.

Meanwhile Baylor rolled Kansas 55-7, with Robert Griffin accounting for four touchdowns. Baylor has a bowl game on their mind…it would be their first since 1994.

Tech is a mess right now, but I’m not sure that Baylor has the overall talent to win a game like this yet.

Texas Tech 31 Baylor 24
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Texas Tech

Texas A&M v. Arkansas -6:

Texas A&M is coming off that heartbreaking loss in Stillwater on national television last week, while Arkansas had the week off after a heartbreaking loss against Alabama the week before.

Arkansas won this game by 29 points last season, and while it will be closer than that, the Razorbacks are the better team here.

Arkansas 41 Texas A&M 34
ATS – Arkansas
SU – Arkansas

Nebraska -12 @ Kansas State:

This was a classic in the early days of the Big 12, and is on the road back to respectability after a 4-0 start by both teams.

Nebraska has looked a lot like the Cornhuskers of old, averaging 309 yards on the ground while only allowing 265 yards per game on defense.

Look for the Wildcats to feed the ball to Daniel Thomas over and over, trying to shorten the game and keep the Manhattan crowd in it.

Nebraska keeps winning, but this one will be hard fought.

Nebraska 27 Kansas State 21
ATS – Kansas State
SU – Nebraska

Random Hot Dallas Chick

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For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Rangers playoff tickets.

Yes, there was a post last week, I just forgot to post it here.  Sorry.  You can find it on Barking Carnival should the mood strike you to relive last weekend.