Wednesday, October 26, 2011

The Week That Will Be (10.29.2011)

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 3-3 SU
For the Year: 25-23 (.521) ($50) ATS 32-16 (.667) SU


We learned last week that we learned that instant replay does work in major sports (Wisconsin/Michigan State)…I’m talking to you, MLB.

…we learned that Stanford can run all over Washington like a LMFAO song, to the tune of 446 yards.

…we learned that Notre Dame = me and USC = my wife and our closet = Notre Dame Stadium.

…we learned that the Aggies were about as interested in playing Iowa State as Tony La Russa was in seeing Lance Lynn pitch for the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday night.

…we learned that Oklahoma State defenders might as well be waving the wheat at opposing running backs, but it doesn’t matter when you run 2 for 1 specials on the opposing defense.

And finally, we learned that 39 game home winning streaks are made to be broken.

Anyhow…

If it wasn’t for Texas…

The last Big 12 win for Texas at home?

You remember it. You probably remember it very well.

You might remember the bomb to James Kirkendoll in front of Section 1 for a touchdown. Perhaps you remember Jordan Shipley tip toeing down the sideline on the north end of the stadium. Then there was the bomb over the middle to Malcolm Williams for a 61 yard score. And finally, there was another score for Kirkendoll in the fourth quarter.

Then you certainly remember the dogpile by all the seniors at mid-field after the game…all except for one.

Colt McCoy took his own lap that night, Senior Night of course, glad-handing those that might have doubted him in the beginning, thanking those that came to love him in the end. He just came off a glistening performance of 396 yards passing, four touchdowns and only nine incompletions in 41 attempts. As he stopped to take a picture with the cheerleaders, with the crowd chanting Texas….Fight….…his favorite song rang over the PA system, George Strait’s Texas.

Unfortunately, in many ways that would be McCoy’s last hurrah. Texas won a Big 12 Championship Game where McCoy was on the ground more than he was making plays on it. And of course we all know the atrocity that occurred in Pasadena.

More than 700 days have passed since that cool November night, but the joyful aura that surrounded the stadium that evening was seemingly 1400 days ago.

Championship dreams turned to utter disgust in 2010, and while there is more promise in 2011, one must consider the fact that last year’s team sat right here with the same record before losing five out of its final six games, with another twenty-plus underdog opponent coming to Austin that nobody outside of that opposing city thought that they could ever lose to.

2009 was an eternity ago in more ways than one. But if you really want to show the progress that hasn’t been evident around here since the first half against Iowa State earlier this year, pound the hell out of Kansas.

With all due respect to Turner Gill and his squad, the Longhorns are served a meaty dish on their plate this week after getting pushed around for two weeks by teams that were simply better than they were.

Do what good teams do and run this team into the ground.

This Kansas squad has yet to give up less than 42 points to a FBS opponent, including a Northern Illinois squad that would love to have the talent that we have on our roster. Kansas State and Texas Tech would probably love to have the talent that is on our roster as well.

It is time for youth to stop serving as an excuse and start serving as a threat.

Throttle the opponent before you on Saturday, and while it won’t cause any shockwaves throughout the conference, it will at least service notice that you can take care of the business that is before you…something that wasn’t done last season.

Then maybe, just maybe, we can start to envision a joyous aura returning to this stadium one day.

And that ridiculous streak will be no more.

On to the games...

Michigan State @ Nebraska -4:

The challenge in this one is how does Michigan State react to be the hunted instead of the hunter? They’ve ventured on the road twice this season, getting hammered by Notre Dame (31-13) and holding down Ohio State (10-7). Add to those two factors that this is the last of a gauntlet of emotional games (@ Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin), and you wonder how much they have left in the tank.

With each team playing into the other’s defensive strength (Michigan State can’t run but can pass, Nebraska can’t stop the run but can stop the pass; Michigan State’s defense is ranked second nationally), expect a low scoring game with MSU being the better team here.

Michigan State 20 Nebraska 16
ATS – Michigan State
SU – Michigan State

Clemson -3.5 @ Georgia Tech:

As a great man in movie lore once said, “it’s a trap.” How in the world does Clemson only enter this game as a little over a field goal favorite when Georgia Tech was defeated soundly by Miami last week? Tech averaged a pitiful 2.8 yards per carry and had only 211 total yards, meanwhile Clemson enters this game averaging 40 points per game?

Georgia Tech does have a good pass defense thus far (giving up only 170 yards per game through the air), but haven’t faced anyone like Clemson. There is always the potential to “pull a Clemson” here (especially with a defense that has given up 83 points in the last two games), but the Tigers should roll.

Clemson 41 Georgia Tech 31
ATS – Clemson
SU – Clemson

Stanford -7.5 @ USC:

There wasn’t much thought of USC staying in this one until last week’s victory over Notre Dame, but realistically there still shouldn’t be much talk. Yes, the Trojans earned that victory with 443 total yards, but Notre Dame didn’t help themselves with 3 turnovers.

Southern Cal is looking at the best offense they’ve faced all year as well as the best defense they’ve faced all year. That doesn’t bode well.

Stanford 41 USC 24
ATS – Stanford
SU – Stanford

Baylor @ Oklahoma State -14:

I want to like Baylor. Robert Griffin is a special, special player. But then I look at that defense that has given up at least 26 points to every FBS opponent they have faced this season, is giving up 425 yards per game, 33 points per game and couldn’t even force Texas A&M to punt, and I’m wondering how they give the ball enough to RGIII to win this game.

Baylor should be able to put some points up late, but Oklahoma State might go for 60.

Oklahoma State 52 Baylor 28
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Oklahoma -13.5 @ Kansas State:
This is not a good match-up for Kansas State. Sure, if the Oklahoma that dropped pass after pass comes into Manhattan and pulls that act again, or if On the Road Landry shows up they have a shot, but to this point, Kansas State has relied on a somewhat healthy running game, virtually nothing from the passing game, a stout run defense and timely turnovers. Those don’t last forever.

Robert Griffin threw for 346 yards but Baylor had 3 turnovers. Seth Doege at Texas Tech was about to throw for 446, but Tech turned it over 4 times and lost. Is this Kansas State defense opportunistic…or lucky?

Oklahoma isn’t as good as they were against Texas, but whatever warts they showed against Texas Tech, Kansas State doesn’t have the offense to exploit them.

Oklahoma 37 Kansas State 17
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Kansas @ Texas -28:

I don’t want to beat a dead horse here, and others on this site have told you similar things, but I really don’t think it can be over stated how bad this Kansas defense has been this year.

You know they are allowing opponents half a hundred points per game, you know they are giving up 550 yards per game (to put that in perspective, 550 yards on offense would rank you second in the country in total offense; 50 points per game would lead FBS). They’ve also allowed two opponents, Georgia Tech and Kansas State, to nearly double their season average in points per game.

It’s like they give you a menu at the beginning of the game and ask whether you would like to run all day or pass all day, or splurge and do both.

Their offense isn’t terrible. Quarterback Jordan Webb is 16th in the country in passing efficiency, but you have to wonder if that is because teams like Oklahoma State took out their starters in the second quarter and didn’t really care if Jordan Webb marched his team up and down the field because they could get this game over faster.

On a team full of freshmen and sophomores, one that hasn’t experienced a win in nearly a full month, you have to hammer them and gain confidence going into the second half of the season.

Show us what you got.

Texas 48 Kansas 13
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

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Wednesday, October 19, 2011

The Week That Will Be (10.22.2011)

Last Week: 4-2 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 23-19 (.548) ($170) ATS 29-13 (.690) SU


Last week we learned that…well we didn’t learn much about LSU that we didn’t already know. They like to run the ball (260 yards), don’t like to pass the ball (123 yards), but like it even less when you do either (339 total offensive yards for Tennessee).

…we learned that Michigan State’s defense is for real, holding Denard Robinson to 165 total yards and Michigan to a total of 250 yards as a team.

…we learned that you can take LaMichael James and Darron Thomas out of the game, but you can’t take Oregon’s offense away.

…we learned that despite being outgained by nearly 250 yards, Kansas State wins ballgames by running the football (193 yards) and not turning the ball over (0 turnovers to Texas Tech’s 4).

…we learned that it is hard to win ballgames, on the other hand, when you give up 415 yards passing, 6 touchdowns, 35 first downs and don’t force the opponent to punt the football all day. RGIII or not, Baylor isn’t going to improve upon the Texas Bowl until they turn that around.

…and finally, we learned that you can cut Brandon Weeden’s passing yards in half from one year to another, but it doesn’t matter if you allow the back-up running back to rush for 140 yards and you only average 2.2 YPA on your side of the football. A much better performance than last week, but moral victories aren’t counted on the Freddie Steinmark scoreboard.

Anyhow…

Believe it or not we are now halfway through the season so it is time to do our annual mid-season awards, for which you get no trophy, but you might get a snarky comment or two.

The Chaps Girl Award (MVP): Not only is there not a clear winner this year, but you might have trouble narrowing down a list of who gets to go to New York and dodge large piles of trash on the sidewalks and gets to pay $14 for a cocktail. You have great candidates like Robert Griffin III, Kellen Moore, Trent Richardson and Landry Jones, but to me the winner is Andrew Luck. Stanford is winning games by an average of 26 points, haven’t scored less than 37 points and don’t have another marquee player on that offense.

The Herschel Walker Award (Freshman of the Year): It isn’t a great year for freshmen in college football. We could have talked about De’Anthony Thomas for Oregon or Isaiah Crowell at Georgia, but we’re homers so we’re going to pick Jaxon Shipley. He’s trailed off as of late, but the kid looks just as good as his brother did in his upperclassman years. And he’ll only get better.

The Eric Taylor Award (Coach of the Year): Gulp. Okay, we’ll tell you how good Clemson and Dabo Swinney has looked thus far this year, but those impressive wins over Auburn, Florida State and Virginia Tech look pretty meh right now. Bill Snyder at Kansas State has done a great job, but would we really be surprised if they finish at 8-4? No, it is with great apprehension that we go with Les Miles, who might be that “special” kid in the cafeteria, but he’s beaten Oregon, West Virginia and Mississippi State when that was still an impressive thing to do. The only thing between LSU and an undefeated schedule is a road trip to Tuscaloosa in early November.

The Rich Kotite Award (Worst Coach of the Year): Look no further than Jumbo Fisher at Florida State, who did lose his quarterback against Oklahoma, but what is a Top 5 pre-season team doing losing to Wake Forest?

The Better Go To Walgreens Award (Surprise of the Year): See above. Florida State losing to Wake Forest was a setback, but then again, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised…the Seminoles have now lost 4 out of 6 to Wake.

The (Insert Failed Sound From The Price is Right Here) (Disappointment of the Year): You have Ohio State and Mississippi State falling completely on their faces, but once again, we must look at pre-season champion Texas A&M, who sit at 4-2 with come from ahead losses to Oklahoma State and Arkansas. At least with their move to the SEC the Aggies won’t have to worry about high expectations.

The Betty Ford Award (Outstanding Achievement For Wasted Talent): The good news for others hoping to take this award home is that [b]Stephen Garcia appears to be out of chances at South Carolina. Like his other suspensions at South Carolina, Garcia’s latest this off-season didn’t cost him any games…he managed to work his way from the bench, threw 9 interceptions in 5 games, turned to the dark side again and was promptly kicked off the team.

The Les Miles Award (LSU’s Punter): I’m not even going to bother looking up the kid’s name, and the taunting call was BS, but still, you’re a punter, run into the endzone, put down the ball and go to the oxygen tank.

The Chris Rock Award (Most Cussing on the Sidelines): Will Muschamp had to apologize to the media this week for his antics on the sidelines during a 17-6 loss to Auburn earlier this month. Perhaps Muschamp should realize that is isn’t the official’s fault that his team is 4-3.

The Lock That Isn’t a Lock To Get to the National Championship Game: With the Honey Badger getting suspended and LSU running out a fast food contest winner every week at quarterback, give me Alabama and Wisconsin in New Orleans for the championship game. Where we go from there is anyone’s guess, but it might set a record for the number of fat white people in New Orleans at one time.

On to the games...

Wisconsin -7.5 @ Michigan State:

Tale of two ballgames here: (1) Russell Wilson has thrown 4 4th quarter passes all season…is Wisconsin prepared to face a quality opponent on the road? ; (2) Yes, we learned last week that Michigan State’s defense is for real, but they’ll have their biggest test yet this week.

Wisconsin’s offense gets all the accolades, but the defense is allowing a shade under 10 points per game. Michigan State’s offense is solid, but they’ve also struggled against mediocre defenses thus far.
The defense might help the Spartans for a while, but I think Wisconsin eventually wears them down due to the inability of Michigan State to move the football.

Wisconsin 31 Michigan State 17
ATS – Wisconsin
SU – Wisconsin

Washington @ Stanford -20.5:

Washington doesn’t do much great, but they are 5-1, with that one loss a 13 point loss to Nebraska in Lincoln. Stanford has been great, but this is their first opponent with much of a pulse. The Cardinal win, but Sarkisian keeps it close.

Stanford 41 Washington 27
ATS – Washington
SU – Stanford

USC @ Notre Dame -9.5:

USC can’t stop anybody, giving up 84 combined points to the state of Arizona and ranking 105th in the country in pass defense, but Notre Dame is getting a bit too much credit here for a four game winning streak where they have been outgained in two of those wins.

It has been 10 years since Notre Dame beat Southern California in South Bend. That will change this year, but not before the Trojans give them a scare (ahem).

Notre Dame 31 USC 28
ATS – USC
SU – Notre Dame

Texas A&M -20.5 @ Iowa State:

Since starting the season 3-0, Iowa State has been outscored 138-57 in three straight losses. It doesn’t get any better this week.

Texas A&M 51 Iowa State 17
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – Texas A&M

Oklahoma State -7 @ Missouri:

Two things here: (1) Oklahoma State is playing the last of a 4 out of 5 games on the road, with a start time of 11 AM…are they due for a letdown here? ; (2) Missouri’s best games this year are both losses, a valiant effort in Norman against Oklahoma and an overtime loss to Arizona State in Tempe. How good are they?

The Cowboys will struggle for a half before pulling away after the half. There is too much on the line for OSU this year to trip up here.

Oklahoma State 38 Missouri 23
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma -29.5:

2000: Oklahoma 27 Texas Tech 13
2002: Oklahoma 60 Texas Tech 15
2004: Oklahoma 28 Texas Tech 13
2006: Oklahoma 34 Texas Tech 24
2008: Oklahoma 65 Texas Tech 21
2010: Oklahoma 45 Texas Tech 7

Oklahoma might not be able to win in Lubbock (haven’t won there since 2003), but there are death, taxes and Oklahoma kicking the crap out of Texas Tech in Norman.

Let’s average the points out, give Oklahoma an extra 10 points to account for a Texas Tech defense that has given up 154 points in the last four games, can’t pressure the quarterback and can’t stop the run and take away a point from Texas Tech for starting a quarterback that has a bad consonant/vowel ratio and we have a final.

Oklahoma 53 Texas Tech 14
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

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Wednesday, October 12, 2011

The Week That Will Be (10.15.2011)

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 19-17 (.528) ($10) ATS 24-12 (.667) SU


Last week we learned that Gus Malzahn is no magician, as Auburn completed 9 passes for 104 yards. The fact that Auburn is 4-2 might be a minor miracle…

…we learned that this Nebraska team is not that good, as they had to mount a furious comeback on a beleaguered Ohio State squad. We might have learned that Joe Bauserman might be the most troubled quarterback in college football, as he went 1 for 10 with an interception in relief of the injured Braxton Miller.

…we learned that the new NCAA celebration rule is truly lame, as the LSU punter is the first victim. Kind of like arresting Al Capone’s shoe shine guy, no?

…we learned that Gary Pinkel is still a jackass, as he ignored Bill Snyder’s overtures at the end of K-State’s win over Missouri.

…we learned that Texas A&M would have once again blown a second half lead had it not been for a blocked field goal and a punt returned deep into Tech territory. The Aggies only averaged 3.2 yards per play in the half.

...and finally, we learned that no matter how much we wished it wasn’t the case, a rebuilding job isn’t done in a day.

Anyhow…

I stood in the courtyard of the Old Mill, unable to even speak due to a mixture of disappointment, befuddlement and general crankiness, drinking a beer that didn’t taste any better than the wax cup that it came in. Surrounded by merriment and joy, I couldn’t think of a worse place to be on a beautiful Saturday afternoon.

How in the hell did that happen?

If you read this column last week you probably know what I think about the youth theory…Missouri has a sophomore quarterback and a sophomore running back and seemed to handle the moment just fine in Norman. Florida State lost their quarterback and had to put in a freshman quarterback that handled the moment adequately.

Perhaps it does make a difference when EVERYONE on your two deep just about is playing in their first Texas/OU game, but c’mon, we need guys with 2 or 3 years experience to stay within 38 points of Oklahoma?

But it’s over. There have been some fabulous write-ups on this website and others about what happened and why, so I’m not going to dwell too much on it.

Instead, where do we go in the short term? Here is what I’d like to see as we go into the second half of the season after this game:

- Find a quarterback. There has not been a quarterback rotation in the history of football that has actually worked. Whether the idea was to see both of these guys, or whether neither of these guys seized the reins since then, the quarterback rotation needs to settle into a manageable situation where one guy can start working on a rapport with his already depleted receiving corps. I know at Texas we like to pick sides and call ourselves a “Fill in the Blank” guy, but I honestly don’t care who it is, he just needs to be pinpointed over these next couple of games so we can go into next season with a clear path, and so the University Co-op doesn't have to keep making a bunch of different jerseys.

- Give the ball to Malcolm Brown. I thought we had decided to make this Malcolm Brown’s offense in Pasadena when he carried the ball 22 times, but against Iowa State he carried the ball 15 times and against Oklahoma he carried it 17 times. This team is not a passing team by any sense of the imagination. Begin to embrace the identity of a run first team that sets up the pass, like Boise State has been the past few years. More people around the country should know who Malcolm Brown is at this point of the year. Pull a Barney Stinson and say “excuse me America have you met Malcolm?”

- Keep up the Accountability. Rotate in and out. If someone looks at you wrong, take him out and put someone else in. If someone misses a block and our quarterback gets clobbered, take him out. If techno music is played at all, take the sound guy out. This year is about getting back to where you want to be, yes, but it is also about finding the guys that can help you get there.

- Win. Duh. We’re back to trying to be realistic here, but win the games you should win on paper (Kansas, Texas Tech and Kansas State); win at least one in the trio of Texas A&M, at Missouri and at Baylor; and give Oklahoma State all they can handle this weekend and show me that you’re better than the product put on the field last week. How are we supposed to be arrogant Texas fans if we get beat by 38?

But, if this season should go the way of 2010, please give the proper notice to find a decent beer.

On to the games...

LSU -17 @ Tennessee:

The one thing you need to know about this game is that Tennessee has struggled mightily against the two best defenses they have faced, needing 10 fourth quarter points to make it respectable against Florida and rushing for -21 yards against Georgia last week.

LSU is slightly better than those two squads. Factor in that Vols QB Tyler Bray is out and while these two teams usually play close games, I’m not sure how Tennessee scores here.

LSU 31 Tennessee 6
ATS – LSU
SU – LSU

Michigan @ Michigan State -2:

Michigan State has won the last three in this series, and they get it done here as they are at home and have the better defense. The Spartans actually have statistically the nation’s best in total defense, but of course they have played juggernauts like Youngstown State and Florida Atlantic before Notre Dame and a watered-down Ohio State team.

Michigan State 24 Michigan 16
ATS – Michigan State
SU – Michigan State

Arizona State @ Oregon -14.5:

In what looks to be a preview of the Pac-12 Championship Game, Arizona State looks for more respect here after a road win at Utah last week and a close loss in Illinois earlier in the year.

The Sun Devils might have a chance if Oregon comes out as sloppy as they did last week, but Brock Osweiler will have to play his best game yet in order to beat Oregon.

Oregon 44 Arizona State 24
ATS – Oregon
SU – Oregon

Kansas State @ Texas Tech -3:

If it isn’t surprising that Kansas State is 5-0 it might be surprising how they got there, defeating Miami, Baylor and Missouri along the way. And they’re doing it with defense again, giving up only 326 total offensive yards to Missouri last week, who is averaging 478 yards otherwise.

Tech might very well protect their home field here, but it is setting up for the classic trap game right after a rivalry game (Texas A&M) and right before a big game (@ Oklahoma). Kansas State likes to run the ball, and Tech is more than willing to let them, giving up 224 yards on the ground per game this year.

Kansas State 31 Texas Tech 27
ATS – Kansas State
SU – Kansas State

Baylor @ Texas A&M -9.5:

How in the world does Texas A&M stop Baylor here? The Bears average 562 yards and 47 points per game, and Robert Griffin is 2nd in passing efficiency and 5th in total offense. If the Aggies couldn’t stop Tyler Wilson (510 yards passing), Seth Doege (391 yds, 3 TD) and Brandon Weeden (438), how in the world are they going to stop Griffin, who is certainly better than two of those guys and might be the best of the bunch?

This will be a shootout, and right now I think Baylor is a better football team. They go into Kyle Field and pull off the upset.

Baylor 42 Texas A&M 37
ATS – Baylor
SU – Baylor

Oklahoma State -8 @ Texas:

Oklahoma State dominated last year’s game in Austin, adding 10 points in the final 1:15 of the first half on their way to a 33-3 lead at one point before giving up two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to make it somewhat respectable.

You know Weeden and Blackmon. Weeden had 409 and a touchdown against us last year, that touchdown going to Blackmon, who had 145 yards receiving against NFL first-rounder Aaron Williams.

The Cowboys are averaging 577 yards and 51 points per game…so forget about winning any sort of shootout with them, at least with our offense. About your only chance is to have Weeden throw interceptions, which he was apt to do early in the season, but he hasn’t thrown an interception in his last two games, throwing the ball 88 times in that span.

Get the running game going, shorten the game and get the turnovers that they got against UCLA and Iowa State and the Longhorns might have a chance. But this team might be better than OU. Uh oh.

Oklahoma State 37 Texas 21
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

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Wednesday, October 5, 2011

The Week That Will Be (10.08.2011)

Last Week: 3-3 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 17-13 (.567) ($230) ATS 20-10 (.667) SU


What we learned last week:

We learned that Clemson might actually be for real…if they don’t pull a Clemson. While we were all enamored with their offense in their wins over Florida State and Auburn, they held Virginia Tech to 258 total yards and more importantly did it in Blacksburg. Impressive.

…that Russell Wilson would win the Heisman trophy if the season were four games long, as he ranks first nationally in yards per attempt and second in passing efficiency while leading Wisconsin to a drubbing of Nebraska.

…that Florida’s defense was overhyped while Alabama’s was not. Well, we knew that Alabama’s defense was for real, but after giving up 119 yards in the first two Gator possessions, they allowed 77 in the next nine and knocked John Brantley out of the game. Stout.

…that Robert Griffin won’t even get invited to New York with that defense. That Bears defense is giving up nearly 29 points per game, and sometimes you are going to lose shootouts.

…that A&M…what joke hasn’t been made already? The Mike Sherman era (21-21) is eerily similar to the Dennis Franchione (22-20) era at Texas A&M, which will join the toughest conference in the country next season, where games against Arkansas not in Fayetteville are looked upon as bye weeks.

And finally, we learned that there is something to this “Redemption Tour” (I refuse to call it “revenge”) as Texas steamrolled Iowa State in the first half and thought about hitting the casinos in Council Bluffs the rest of the night.

Anyhow…

“If you want it you can get it for the rest of your life.” – Kanye West & Rhianna, All of the Lights

From this column in 2008:

“Youth wins.

Young Wilkinson beat old stodgy Texas. Young Royal turned the tables. Young Switzer did what Royal and his replacement Fred Akers better. Young Stoops beat Mack Brown with fresh new schemes and by being one of the first to use the spread offense which would become a staple in college football in this decade.”


That was before the Texas/OU match-up, where newly hired Will Muschamp and Major Applewhite helped Texas come out on top 45-35. Fast forward to 2011, and Bryan Harsin and Manny Diaz will experience their first Texas/OU game.

They aren’t the only ones. Case McCoy and David Ash will go under center for the first time in this game. Malcolm Brown will play in his first OU game. As will Mike Davis. And Jaxson Shipley. As will most members of a young secondary.

At first glance, and apparently a lot of sports reporters this week never got past that first glance, that is an obvious downside to going with youth, that when you get to monumental games like this where emotion plays a big part and every play seems to be life or death that experience seems to triumph over talent.

But we all know that Texas and Oklahoma isn’t just another game.

Let’s look at just the Brown/Stoops Era. Quentin Griffin had 6 touchdowns in 2000. Jason White came off the bench in 2001 and led his team to victory. Adrian Peterson had 225 rushing yards in 2004. Jamal Charles (we finally get to a Longhorn) had a 80 yard touchdown scamper and a Texas freshman record 116 yards in 2005. Colt McCoy in 2006 threw for two scores.

Demarco Murray had 128 yards and a touchdown in 2007. Jermichael Finley didn’t have a catch in 2006 but had 4 for 149 and a touchdown in 2007. In 2008 Sam Bradford threw for 244 yards and three touchdowns, two of those to Jermaine Gresham, also playing in his first Texas/OU game. In 2009 Landry Jones threw for 250 yards and a touchdown in relief of an injured Bradford. Marquise Goodwin had the only Texas touchdown as a freshman that year. Kenny Stills had 78 receiving yards last year.

And who can forget James Brown in 1994 or Peter Gardere in 1989.

Experience matters…to a point. But in this game, where any Texas fan worth his salt can tell you who Bubba Jacques is, what matters most is opportunity.

It will be a wild scene on Saturday, as Lee Corso no doubt will fire off those deafening Ruffneck cannons just as 11 o’clock rolls around on the dial in a game that is literally in the middle of a carnival. But all of that will go out the window when the first person gets smashed in the mouth on the opening kickoff. Then it is just football.

And the opportunity to become the next Texas legend…no matter how many games you’ve played.

On to the games...

Auburn @ Arkansas -10:

Lost in the hoopla of Auburn’s win over South Carolina last week was the fact that Auburn turned the ball over four times, completed passes at a 3.4 per attempt rate and gave up 11 tackles for loss. Oh, South Carolina turned the ball over four times themselves and was 2 of 10 on third down conversions.

Arkansas should be able to move the ball here, but will they be able to stop anyone? They’ve allowed 104 points in the last three contests, don’t generate any sort of pass rush and don’t tackle anyone behind the line of scrimmage.

Arkansas 38 Auburn 31
ATS – Auburn
SU – Arkansas

Ohio State @ Nebraska -11:

Ohio State came very close to being shut out at home for the first time since 1982, averaged 3.3 yards per pass attempt and 3.4 yards per rush attempt last week…and now get to face a pissed off Nebraska team that is looking for a “name” win after getting embarrassed in their Big 10 opener last week.

Michigan State turned the ball over three times and missed a field goal inside the Ohio State 40 yard line last week. Nebraska in Lincoln won’t do that.

Nebraska 31 Ohio State 13
ATS – Nebraska
SU – Nebraska

Florida @ LSU -13.5:

Will Muschamp has his work cut out for him this week, getting this demoralized Florida team ready to go to Baton Rouge and take on LSU. True freshman Jeff Driskel gets the start, and if it is possible the defense he will face this week will be better than the defense he played last week.

That Florida defense might be able to keep it a game for a half or so, but LSU will eventually wear them down on both sides of the ball and run away with it.

LSU 31 Florida 10
ATS – LSU
SU – LSU

Missouri -3.5 @ Kansas State:

Yep, that about tells you the quality of the slate of games in the Big 12 this week.

Missouri 31 Kansas State 24
ATS – Missouri
SU – Missouri

Texas A&M -8.5 @ Texas Tech:

After getting owned by Tech for the better part of the aughts, the Aggies have won the last two in this series, including a 45-27 win at Kyle Field last year where Ryan Tannehill threw for 449 yards and 4 touchdowns. But Tannehill has been rather ordinary this year, ranking 51st in the country in passing efficiency.

If he isn’t better than that, it is going to be hard for A&M to come out of here with a win. And it is going to be hard to come out of here with a win if the nation’s worst pass defense (allowing 337 yards per game) doesn’t snap out of it. A&M likes to put pressure on the quarterback, but they are sacrificing yards for sacks, and eventually that has killed them.

Aggies win…but have to hold on again.

Texas A&M 41 Texas Tech 37
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Texas A&M

Oklahoma -10 vs. Texas:

Awake from an alcohol-induced coma sometime in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s game and you’ll probably be able to tell who is winning by how clean Landry Jones’ white jersey is. Let him stand in the pocket and he’ll pick you apart with his multitude of weapons. Rattle him, or pressure him, and he’ll start throwing the ball to the wrong team, hurry the already hurried offense and generally panic like an air traffic controller with a case of the runs.

It is also no secret that Jones struggles away from Norman, looking very pedestrian against Florida State in Tallahassee earlier this year and losing five of his first six road starts in his career. Oklahoma fans will try to tell you that it isn’t the case anymore, as he beat Baylor, Oklahoma State, Nebraska and Connecticut on the road (or at neutral sites last year) to end the season, but you’ll kindly remind them that it is Baylor, he had three first half interceptions against Oklahoma State, that Nebraska was up 17-0 in that game and that wins against UConn only count in basketball.

Texas played Jones well last year, and played Oklahoma as a whole fairly well with the exception of Demarco Murrary, who is currently sparing everyone to death as a Dallas Cowboy this year and should be ineligible for this game but I wouldn’t put it past a Stooops brother to pull a fast one.

Play defense like we did last year and this game is very winnable (Ryan Broyles in three career games against Texas: 12 catches for 130 yards. Salty). Get in a shootout and we might as well go look for the fried banana pudding.

On offense, the good news is that Brent Venables was seen crying while cleaning crews cleaned out his office of 13 years of Greg Davis tendencies. Venables had to clear Dancing With the Stars and Heart of Dixie off his DVR and actually record more than one Texas game this year.

Now that the Greg Davis joke series is over, what will Texas try to do? Hell if I know, and that is the beauty of mad scientist Bryan Harsin. We know he will attack an Oklahoma defense that has looked flat out ordinary at times from multiple angles. He might try to pound Malcolm Brown against an undersized front seven that allowed 5.80 yards per carry to Missouri, or he might try to air it out against a defense that is susceptible to the big play (again).

There is absolutely nobody giving Texas a shot this week. Strike up the All I Do Is Win on the floor of the Cotton Bowl, LHB.

Texas 27 Oklahoma 24
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

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For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Fletcher’s Corny Dogs.