Wednesday, December 28, 2011

The Week That Will Be (2011 Holiday Bowl)



for only love can conquer hate… – Marvin Gaye, “What’s Goin’ On?”

When Texas and Cal meet on Wednesday night in the Holiday Bowl, it will be the first meeting for the teams since the fall of 1970, when the Longhorns defeated the Golden Bears 50-15 on the way to their second consecutive national championship. Cal would finish the season at 6-5, their 18th consecutive season with at least three losses (their streak would reach 38 seasons until the 1991 team went 10-2). The game was an afterthought, not much of a blip on the radar for Texas fans.

But the summer of 1970 was certainly noteworthy. It was then in the famous studio Hitsville, USA in Detroit that Motown artist Marvin Gaye began recording what would become one of the most celebrated tunes of all-time, What’s Goin On, a soulful, jazzy take on the political climate surrounding the quickly disintegrating Vietnam War.

Inspired by the letters sent home to him from his brother fighting in the war, Gaye put his career on the line to bring the controversial tune to the masses, refusing to record anything else until producer Berry Gordy agreed to release it. Gaye won out when a Los Angeles disc jockey started playing the single in January of 1971, spurring on the record label to release the full album later that spring when it vaulted to the top of the R&B charts. Ultimately, good taste won out, as the single and album are both recognized as one of the greatest of all-time by Rolling Stone and several other publications.

It was controversial, of course, due to the unrest occurring in cities across the country in response to the unpopular war, and one place where that climate flourished was Berkeley, California, and specifically on the campus of the University of California.

Noted as one of the finest public institutions on the globe, Cal has become famous (or infamous, depending on your viewpoint), for its activism, most notably the Free Speech Movement of 1964 and various Vietnam War protests in the 60’s and 70’s. That tradition has carried on today, as tree sitters have halted construction on campus, most notably California Memorial Stadium, where several trees needed to be removed for civil progress.

Ask anyone on the street about the University of California, and you are likely to hear about the activism or the scholastic reputation…you’ll probably hear something about anti-war protests and love.

If only that love extended to the University of Texas. And Mack Brown.

If you are reading this column, you likely know about the controversy in 2004 when Texas passed Cal in the final BCS standings and denied the Golden Bears their first Rose Bowl berth since 1959. The media perpetrated the theory that Brown “lobbied” for votes after the Longhorns’ 26-13 victory over Texas A&M to finish the regular season at 10-1. Never mind the fact that Texas actually lost votes the next day despite defeating the ranked Aggies and Cal enjoying a bye week.

Nope, it was easier for a anti-BCS, bloodthirsty media to latch on to Texas as a villain (the current realignment and Longhorn Network issues come to mind), insisting that it was Brown that won over the votes needed in the AP and Coaches’ poll to vault Texas over Cal, ignoring that the fact that for one, California was ahead of Texas in the final voters polls, and second, that even if the perceived pro-Texas biases were “corrected”, Texas would have still finished ahead of Cal in the BCS due to their strength in the computers.

“I guess we didn’t run up the score at the end, or beg for votes after the game,” Cal quarterback Aaron Rodgers said at the time. “I thought it was (wrong) for Coach Brown to beg for votes after the A&M game.”

Welcome to big time college football, California. Texas felt the same way in 2008, and Oklahoma State feels the same way this year. With the imperfections of the system that we have, it is rare that there is going to be a year that a controversy of some sort isn’t present.

But all of that was a long time ago, right? The freshmen on this year’s team were 10 or 11 years old when that controversy occurred, probably more occupied with their Xbox than they were with keeping up with college football politics. That, coupled with the facts that Cal has since gone into a nosedive (or corrected itself if you look at its record prior to that year), Texas won a national championship the following year, Texas played for a national championship in 2009, and the fact that that California was drubbed by a 7-4 Texas Tech team in the Holiday Bowl while Texas defeated Michigan in the Rose Bowl, and all of that groundswell would have died out by now, right?

“Yes, I’m still upset about it. We got ‘em now in the Holiday Bowl.” – Aaron Rodgers, December 2011

Wow.

Rodgers has since, of course, gone on to replace the legendary Brett Favre in Green Bay, leading the Packers to a Super Bowl title last season, and has made fantasy football owners giddy by posting ridiculous numbers, has led the Pack to a 14-1 record…but still can’t get over the BCS snub seven years ago.

And he isn’t alone in that sentiment. If you went to any Cal message board that isn’t dedicated to the fine art of arbor perching when this bowl match-up was announced and you would have found much of the same sentiment, wanting “revenge” for taking what was theirs.

Those, of course, are the opinions of fans or alumni and not the coaching staff or current players. Cal coach Jeff Tedford, to this credit, has largely taken the high road on the subject, praising Texas and just saying that the Bears were disappointed. And once that football is kicked into the brisk San Diego air, all of this will fly out the window and it will just be football.

But for those Cal fans out there that still wish to harbor ill will towards Texas, and still hold on to that thought that big bad Texas took what was rightfully theirs, I remind you that love conquers hate, that it goes against the fiber of your school’s moral climate to hold on to that angst for this long.

But if you still must hate, I would love for you to see Texas get over on your school once again.

On to the game…

California vs. Texas -4:

Okay I’m about to invalidate my whole column, but forget everything that you read up there, that is all window dressing for the fans. Like I said, the players don’t really care about what happened seven years ago, and the coaches aren’t going to get dragged down that path either.

All that matters in this game is what happened in 2011, and what happened is that both teams predictably had topsy-turvy years that resulted in 7-5 years. Texas went from Garrett Gilbert’s team to dual-quarterback team to a power running team to David Ash’s team to Case McCoy’s team to relying on the defense to bail them out team. Cal went from relying upon the arm of Zach Maynard (averaged 262 yards passing through the first 7 games) to relying upon the running game (230 yards per game in the last four), finishing 3-1 in that stretch with their only loss a three point defeat at the hands of Stanford.

Texas appears to have everyone but Fozzy Whitaker back for this one, which means they’ll likely try to establish a running game above all else. Cal’s rushing defense was solid this year, giving up only 130 yards per game, but did have their troubles against rushing attacks such as Oregon (365 yards), UCLA (294 yards) and Arizona State (213 yards).

It is a defense that was solid for the most part, ranking near the top in the country in sacks and tackles for loss, but also giving up 30 points per game against Pac-12 opponents not named Washington State or Oregon State.

On offense, Cal relies on Maynard and running back Isi Sofele, who ranked 20th in the country in rushing yards per game. They cut back Maynard’s pass attempts dramatically in the last half of the season, instead focusing on Sofele and picking their spots with a receiving corps that combined for 2000 yards receiving between the two starters.

Truth be told, Texas saw better this season, and should be able to handle a Cal offense that isn’t as good as at least six teams that the Longhorns saw this year (Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Missouri and Texas Tech), and should be able to run on a defense that hasn’t seen a running game capable of such things outside of Oregon.

Cal will stay in this one for a half, but I see the Texas running game wearing them down in the second half.

Texas 34 California 21
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

Image

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for the above album on iTunes.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

The Week That Will Be (12.03.2011)

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 41-37 (.526) ($10) ATS 51-27 (.654) SU


We learned last week that Andrew Luck is good again, but might not be as good as Matt Barkley, but we might punish Barkley for Reggie Bush’s family getting free housing, so then we’re going to give the award to Robert Griffin III, who three weeks ago everyone had written off until his epic efforts against the Herculean defenses of Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Kansas, but he goes to Baylor so we’re going to give the award to Trent Richardson because he’s a running back and he plays for Alabama and they’re good and stuff and they’re in the SEC, but first we’re going to pretend like we’re going to give it to the commuter school quarterback…

…we learned that Auburn’s worst offensive output in a decade (138 yards) shockingly wasn’t good enough to beat Alabama, and we’re almost certain that Kristi Malzahn had a word or two to say about that*.

*YouTube Link

…we learned that it has been four days since Michigan beat Ohio State.

…we learned that LSU’s defense is ridiculous…but their offense is rounding into shape as well as their 495 total yards were their most since 2007, their last BCS Championship season.

…we learned that Art Briles has no problem burning the redshirt of a quarterback he wanted to sit out in week 13 against a Texas Tech defense that I’m pretty sure J.J. Joe could have beaten off his couch.

And finally, we learned that things are all right in the world again.

Anyhow…

It is finally here, college football fans, it is CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK. In the Big 10, we have ads on Craigslist for seat fillers because they can’t sell all the seats in Indianapolis for a game against Wisconsin and Michigan State (Kramer just told Jerry he’s going to Indy); in the ACC we have a championship game between the worst #4 team in the history of the sport (Virginia Tech) against Clemson, who has about as much of a lifeline as Rick Neuheisel’s coaching career…

And speaking of Neuheisel, he’s already been fired because UCLA is having such a crappy season, yet they are playing in the inaugural Pac-12 Championship game, but only because the NCAA is punishing the current USC squad for Reggie Bush’s transgressions while Bush flies Kim Kardashian around the country in private jets…oh and UCLA will need a waiver to play in a bowl game if they lose this game because they will have a losing record…and THEY APPLIED FOR THE WAIVER ALREADY. Hey, come to Eugene and watch your Bruins take on the Ducks…oh wait, nevermind, we’re DOOOMED!”

Then you have LSU having to play in a SEC Championship game for the right to play in the BCS National Championship game against….Alabama, who they beat less than a month ago…that’s right, the BCS, where you lose a game in the regular season and then get a bye week while the team that beats you has to go against a pretty good Georgia squad….but oh wait, every BCS nerd with a #2 pencil is telling us that it doesn’t matter if LSU lines up my high school team that went 2-8 this year in LSU uniforms, because even if LSU loses, they’re going to the championship game…can you FEEL the excitement, SEC fans?

Then the best game of the weekend features Oklahoma against Oklahoma State, for the right to play Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl…yippee! Oklahoma State fans wear crimson and cream 51 weeks out of the year, so it will be odd for them to root against Oklahoma for a change, but really these two teams should sit down and try to decide which was a worst loss, OSU to Iowa State or OU to Texas Tech, but since Tech lost to Iowa State by about a Neuheisel (50 points), we’re going with Oklahoma losing to Tech.

So with Totally Meaningless Weekend (hype that one, ESPN…or sit on it for 8 years and don’t tell anybody for the sake of journalistic integrity and just throw common decency out the window) upon us, here are some more random thoughts…

-- And it’s goodbye to A&M… Really, could it have been scripted any better for Texas fans? I don’t think even beating the Aggies 66-6 would have been as satisfying as letting them blow yet another halftime lead, having them seemingly take the lead for good, and then finally putting together a scoring drive to snatch it from their fingers tightly holding it against their chest with a foot out the door to the SEC. If the Aggies had won that game, they would have thrown out the overwhelming series record and proclaimed all-time scoreboard, but now they just avert their gaze at you, curse the officials and Mike Sherman under their breath and try to convince themselves that a 6-6 record in the mighty Big 12 really translates to 9-3 in the watered-down SEC.

-- But there is one more left… Yes, it is somewhat sad that we’re pining for the Alamo Bowl while living in a town that the Brazos River doesn’t pass through, but 8-4 and a third tier bowl would be a welcome sight after last season and after looking at 6-6 in the face this time last week.

Not only that, but win in Waco and we’re looking at a 3-0 record against our in-state conference rivals…reasserting our place as the top dog in this state and reminding Baylor that beating Texas is a rare event for which they should not become accustomed.
Win in Waco, win the bowl game, and you’re riding a three game winning streak into the recruiting period and, more importantly, into next season with a squad that loses very little.

-- My weiner had a first name… Urban Meyer decided that his health and his family that he saw during the week while working for ESPN on the weekends was too much to handle, so he got back into the college game this week, agreeing to a 6-year, $24 million contract to head the Ohio State Buckeyes. Buckeye fans were even more annoying than usual this week, proclaiming that Meyer got his “dream job” and wouldn’t have come back for any other position….riiiiiiight. If Texas, Oklahoma, USC, Notre Dame, LSU or Alabama would have been open, and would have been offering that contract, the Ohio native would be coming up with some other excuse to spout during his introductory press conference. He’s a catch, Buckeye fans, but don’t fall in love…

-- Lord those hard times…Who knows better than I? A bunch of mediocre teams decided that their current coaching staff wasn’t getting the job done this week, as Arizona State, Washington State, UCLA, Illinois, Kansas and others made a coaching change. Mike Leach has already been hired in Pullman, which tells you how desperate he was to get back into the game, while UCLA and Arizona State seemed determined to fight over Kevin Sumlin at Houston before he inexplicably decides to stay there, because they are going to the Big East after all. No, you can’t just keep losing, but a dollar says that most of these places go cheap and we see their schools putting an ad on Monster within 3-4 years from now…

-- Leave the gun, take the cannoli… Back away from Manny Diaz and nobody gets hurt…does everyone understand?

-- But let’s hit rewind again… LSU vs. Alabama. You know what? Those two teams might very well be the best two teams in the country. But there is something wrong in a re-match in the BCS Championship game, which is a subjective contest in the first place.

Alabama had their chance, at home, and blew it in one of the least watchable games that I can remember this year. And then you add in the ridiculousness that if LSU loses and still goes to the game, we’ll have LSU vs. Alabama for the championship, while SEC Champion Georgia plays Houston in the Sugar Bowl. I find it hard to believe that Oklahoma State isn’t being punished here just because they are Oklahoma State, while Alabama is getting the benefit of the doubt because well, they’re Alabama. Signature win for Alabama this year? Arkansas? Eh. OSU will have beaten Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor and Texas. And yes, that loss to Iowa State, so they don’t really have an argument at all…I get it.

If only there was another way to determine a champion…and hey we wouldn’t be subjected to college basketball on December Saturday afternoons…

On to the games...

PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP: UCLA @ Oregon -31.5:

You could make the argument that the players might try to win this one for Neuheisel, but you could have also said that about Saturday’s game against USC. UCLA is terrible, and it is going to get worse before it gets better.

Oregon 52 UCLA 13
ATS – Oregon
SU – Oregon

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP: Virginia Tech -7 vs. Clemson:

Clemson won with shocking ease in Blacksburg in October, but they’ve lost three out of their last four by a combined score of 130-74. They don’t have the stomach for this fight.

Virginia Tech 27 Clemson 16
ATS – Virginia Tech
SU – Virginia Tech

BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin -9.5:

If you remember Michigan State won the regular season match-up with a hail mary at the end of regulation in a tie ballgame…both of these teams have a top 6 defense nationally but put up a combined 68 points in that ballgame, so figure out that one.

I think Wisconsin is more battle ready here. Michigan State lost two games against quality opponents on the road this year (Notre Dame and Nebraska), struggled against Ohio State in Columbus, and then handled Iowa and Northwestern away from East Lansing. But the Badgers have the big game experience.

Wisconsin 34 Michigan State 21
ATS – Wisconsin
SU – Wisconsin

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP: Georgia vs. LSU -13.5:

Georgia somehow won their tenth straight ballgame last weekend against Georgia Tech but still fell in the BCS standings, while we all know LSU is sitting pretty no matter what they do.

With that in mind, do they come out and erase all doubt, or do they come out flat knowing that their bad is still probably good enough to beat Georgia, and that they’re still going to New Orleans?

No matter which LSU team shows up, Georgia should be able to stay in this one. They’re allowing a little under 100 yards rushing for the season, so they should be able to stifle the LSU offense as long as they don’t see the field too often.

LSU 28 Georgia 17
ATS – Georgia
SU – LSU

Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State -3.5:

Oklahoma State is the better team here. They have a better offense, a more opportunistic defense, a healthier squad, they’re better than Oklahoma…but we all know this one is mental.

The Cowboys own a 16-82-7 all-time record against Oklahoma, and haven’t won a game in this series since 2002 despite being favorable with Oklahoma the past four or five years.

The Cowboys are going for their first Big 12 title (they never even won an outright Big 8 title)…and while this might be foolish, this Oklahoma team has struggled with the injuries and an average defense.

Oklahoma State 41 Oklahoma 34
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Texas @ Baylor -2.5:

This game starts and ends with Robert Griffin III. The guy is the most complete player Texas will see this year, ranking sixth in the country in passing and tying Brandon Weeden with 34 touchdown passes on the year. He can throw every route, has one of the best deep balls you’ll ever see, and doesn’t get rattled.

Then if you somehow stop him through the air, he’ll run it on you, rushing for 612 yards (counting sacks) and 7 touchdowns on the ground this year. Simply put, contain Griffin? No chance. You have to stop everyone else, mostly running back Terrence Ganaway, who only had 160 combined rushing yards in their losses to Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Griffin is damn good, but he can’t do it all by himself.

On offense, Texas is going to have its best game in weeks. Lucky for them, Baylor should give them every opportunity to get healthy on the ground, giving up 198 yards per game. Only three teams failed to reach 150 yards rushing against Baylor (Kansas State – 83, Texas A&M – 50, and Oklahoma – 131), but those three teams combined for 1,261 passing yards on a Baylor pass defense that ranks 107th in the country.

Five teams were able to rush for 250 on them (Stephen F. Austin – 266, Rice – 306, Iowa State – 395, Missouri – 280, Texas Tech – 360). Give the ball to Malcolm Brown, Joe Bergeron (if healthy), Jeremy Hills, Ramonce Taylor…whoever you want to, just run the ball, and run it often.

Baylor hasn’t beaten Texas in Waco since 1997, and even though the Texas defense is playing as well as any unit in the country, I’m a little worried about the possibility of getting into a shoot-out with the Bears here. But, as this season has shown, give this defense even a little bit of offense and the defense will take it from there.

Texas 31 Baylor 27
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

Image

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for drinks on the Riverwalk.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

The Week That Will Be (Thanksgiving 2011)

Last Week: 5-1 ATS 2-4 SU
For the Year: 39-33 (.542) ($210) ATS 46-26 (.639) SU


We learned last week that Arkansas plays with more footballs than everyone else, as six receivers had at least 3 catches and three running backs had at least 10 carries in a blowout win over Mississippi State.

…we learned that USC is an inexplicable blowout loss to Arizona State away from having deep, deep regret over their post-season ban this year. Take away that loss and the ban, and USC is perhaps a win over UCLA and a win at home in the Pac-12 Championship from going to the BCS National Championship game. They would certainly be in the argument with Alabama. Which is, of course, to say if I was Tom Brady…

…we learned that what a difference a year makes in Ann Arbor. After holding Nebraska to a season-low in total yards, Michigan now ranks in the top 15 in total defense and scoring defense. If Denard Robinson can improve on an inconsistent junior season, you have to think Michigan is a good candidate for the national title next season that might fly under some people’s radar.

…we learned that Baylor can actually beat Oklahoma, after Robert Griffin III led them on six touchdown drives in the last three quarters, three of which took less than a minute. Griffin’s 562 total yards are at least worth an invite to New York for the Heisman ceremony.

…we learned that Oklahoma State will never win the national championship. If they don’t win it this year, with Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon playing at a ridiculous level, with a running game that is a nice complement, and a defense that leads the nation in takeaways, they’ll never win it. Championship programs don’t fall to Iowa State, no matter where the game is or what the circumstances are. They had one game to focus on before a de facto title game semi-final and blew it.

…and finally, we learned that 18 points in two weeks will drive a fan of a college football team very, very crazy.

Anyhow…

It is that time again, the time of year where we all gather around and make small talk about how it is the holiday season already even though we all just lived through the hottest hell of a Summer that man can endure, or perhaps your cousin from Pennsylvania has somehow convinced himself that ESPN, and The Longhorn Network hoodwinked Penn State into firing Joe Paterno in order to cover-up that whole conspiracy about 1969 and you sit there with failed smile nodding your head because the time it would take to refute this argument would be better spent putting him back on the next flight to Pittsburgh.

It is also the time that we give thanks, and for that reason, I present to you what I am thankful for this holiday season…

To Tim Tebow, thanks for the food on my plate this Thursday, for ridding us of the Aggies, for lowering the price of gas by 10 cents this week, for my beautiful wife, for killing and presiding over the funeral of Osama bin Laden, and for most of all, being relevant again so the Tim Tebow Joke Series has more legs.

To Penn State school officials, thanks for being unethical buffoons (via The University of Miami and Ohio State University).

To David Stern, thanks for allowing the Dallas Mavericks to be all-time NBA Champions.

To Christine Michael, thanks for this ringing endorsement of Texas A&M University: "I want to go to A&M," Andrew Michael (a Junior recruit) said. "It would be cool but he wants me to be in a better place than him. Like he wants me to be at LSU or something like that."

To Gary Pinkel, thanks for teaching the school kids of America how NOT to recite the Alphabet.

To Lee Corso, thanks for being that crazy uncle that might say anything at anytime.

To Michael Vick, thanks for having a low pain threshold so Vince Young could win another game as a quarterback.

To Austin Beer Works, thanks for the outstanding brew.

To Urban Meyer, thanks for the one year hiatus (via @UrbanMeyer’sHeart)

To T-Baby, thanks for letting us know it is cold in the D. We were not aware.

To Time Warner Cable and The Longhorn Network, thanks for absolutely nothing.

To the readers at Friday Night Tailgates, thanks for taking the time to read this column each and every week.

To Texas A&M, thanks for humping it, for your ridiculous haircuts, for having someone stand with a chalkboard at all times showing the score to Reveille, drawing your swords on SMU cheerleaders, for Coach Fran’s newsletter, for non-sanctioned bonfires, for Dave South, for acting like you care about women’s basketball, for your refusal to have female cheerleaders, for Yell Leaders for that matter, for Mike McKinney, for “can you help me with this?”, for proudly being in the 98th percentile, for maroon carrots, for athletic directors that write “tu” in e-mails, for your undefeated record at half-time, for calling a tradition “elephant walk”, for hissing, for Hullabaloo Caneck Caneck, for having the courage to Whoop, for your jars of special sauce, for Aggie Yell Leaders singing in the car and putting the video on the Internet…and for running to a conference that kicks your ass every time you play them. Goodbye.

To Emanuel Acho and Fozzy Whitaker, thanks for not only your notable contributions on the field, but for the outstanding contributions off the field. We are proud to have you in the Longhorn nation and wish you well in your future endeavors.

To Nolan Brewster, thanks for your contributions to the program. Your dad made his mark on this program, and we know that you will follow in his footsteps closely.

To Blaine Irby, thanks for your heart and determination. We can’t tell you how proud we were when we heard you were coming back, how proud we were when we saw you back, and how emotions nearly boiled over when you scored a touchdown in your final home game. That determination will get you very far in life.

To Christian Scott, thanks for coming back from a personal setback to make a strong contribution on the field.

To Justin Tucker, thanks for your diversity and for being such a strong contributor to this team for the past few years. You were the team MVP several times, and you will be missed next year.

To Blake Gideon, Cody Johnson, Kheeston Randall and Keenan Robinson, thanks for being a part of some very notable teams, and for several years of contributions.

To Tray Allen, Jamison Berryhill, Mark Buchanan, Ahmard Howard and David Snow , thanks for sticking with it. You guys were never the guys on the front of the program, but you stuck with it and contributed where you could without taking the easy path elsewhere.

To Anthony D’Addeo, John Paul Floyd, Luciano Martinez, Patrick McNamara, John Osborn, Christian Randolph, Sam Walker, Trey Wier, Nick Zajicek, Alex Zumberge, thanks for the thankless job of being a walk-on at the University of Texas. You know you are pretty much guaranteed zero playing time when you set out on this path, yet you sacrifice your health and time each and every week in order to make this program the best in the country.

On to the games...

Notre Dame @ Stanford -6.5:

Notre Dame has played well against the pass (even holding Matt Barkley to 224 yards), but seeing them struggle against Boston College last week, in addition to their troubles on the road this season (Michigan – L, Pitt- Close W, Purdue – W, Wake Forest – Close W), I think Stanford gets back on track here.

Stanford 31 Notre Dame 24
ATS – Stanford
SU – Stanford

Alabama -21 @ Auburn:

Auburn held it together the first couple of weeks of the season, but they’ve fallen apart lately, losing by 35 to LSU, 38 to Georgia and only leading Samford by 8 going to the fourth quarter last week. Alabama should be focused on winning convincingly and then letting the dominoes fall on them going to the BCS Championship game…

But this series is always close. Look at this point differential the past 10 meetings: (1, 5, 36, 7, 7, 10, 8, 5, 10, 24). Alabama wins, but Auburn sticks around for a while.

Alabama 34 Auburn 17
ATS – Auburn
SU – Alabama

Ohio State @ Michigan -7.5:

It has been 2,922 days since Michigan beat Ohio State in football. The big musical hit was Outkast’s “Hey Ya”, Steve Bartman had just ruined the Cubs title hopes, LeBron James was a rookie for the Cleveland Cavaliers, Gmail was months away from being introduced…and Facebook was weeks away.

And with the news that Urban Meyer is on the way, Michigan had better do it this year.

Michigan 20 Ohio State 16
ATS – Ohio State
SU – Michigan

Arkansas @ LSU -13:

Oh what an interesting game. If Arkansas wins, the tidal wave of chaos that will engulf college football will be delicious…if LSU wins, we’re likely looking at LSU/Alabama once again.
Arkansas has actually won 3 out of 4 in this series, including a 31-23 win last year. They feature a high-powered offense that has scored 40 points three straight games, but they must find success against a LSU defense that has given up more than 11 points in a game since September.

This is always a great game, and I don’t see it being any different this year. LSU just has a monster of a defense, and it will come up big when needed.

LSU 28 Arkansas 24
ATS – Arkansas
SU – LSU

Texas Tech vs. Baylor -12.5:

Baylor hasn’t beaten Texas Tech since 1995, but then again they had never beaten Oklahoma, so perhaps it is their week. Tech appears to have given up on the season, and players are dropping like flies…but Baylor’s defense still has its troubles.

Baylor 44 Texas Tech 34
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Baylor

Texas @ Texas A&M -7.5:

Last meeting, Texas offense sucks, Texas defense good, Texas A&M offense good, Texas A&M defense sucks, Texas A&M dreadful in the second half of games…that about covers it, right?

The Texas defense that held Collin Klein to 4 rushing yards last week might catch a break with Cyrus Gray possibly being sidelined….Gray last year ran for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Longhorns….or is it Gray receiving a break?

How do you beat the A&M offense? Force turnovers. A&M struggled the most against Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, mostly because of Ryan Tannehill’s 6 combined interceptions in those games. They also had two fumbles in a loss against Missouri.

So you’ve forced turnovers, but can Texas convert those into points? Obviously the health of Malcolm Brown, Joe Bergeron and Jaxon Shipley factor into that. If they are healthy, then Texas can run on an A&M team that gave up 284 yards rushing to Missouri….if those guys are “limited” again, then they won’t be able to run on a team that only gave up 2.5 ypc to Kansas State, 3.17 to Oklahoma, 2.37 to Arkansas and 1.31 to Oklahoma State.

Sure, you can beat the Aggies through the air, as evidenced by them giving up 292 yards per game, but you are a better prognosticator than me if you see a Texas quarterback that will be able to exploit that.

And then it gets worse. The Aggies lead the country in sacks, averaging 3.73 a game, and they face a Texas offensive line that has shown little ability to protect the quarterback, ranking 80th in the country in sacks allowed at 2.20.

It is a broken record, but this team simply won’t get better until the quarterback position gets better. One of these guys shows something, and Texas can escape here with a win on the back of a defense and running game. Play like they did against KSU, Missouri and Oklahoma, and the Horns get blown out of the building.

Unfortunately, I think we know which is more likely.

Texas A&M 30 Texas 17
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – Texas A&M

Random Hot Dallas Chick

Image

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for post-holidays gym fees.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

The Week That Will Be (11.19.2011)

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 3-3 SU
For the Year: 34-32 (.515) ($140) ATS 44-22 (.667) SU


We learned last week that Boise State can have the all-time leader in wins at quarterback, can have the coach that everyone is the first to call, but sometimes it just comes down to whether or not you can make a kick.

…we learned that Aaron Murray might very well be the best quarterback in the SEC, while Gus Malzahn had better find a head coaching gig while the iron is still somewhat lukewarm...

…we learned that Stanford can water down the field, can let the grass grow for several days, but none of that works on Oregon’s speed. What exactly was the Cardinal working on when they had Andrew Luck still in the game during blowouts?

…we learned that Texas A&M is Sonny in The Road Goes on Forever. Life kicks ass during the first half of the song…not so much in the second half. Let’s just hope no lawmen get hurt.

…we learned that Oklahoma State’s defense is an easy mark, but if you watch them you’ll see why shutting out Texas Tech offensively isn’t that unusual. There were 55 solo tackles for OSU in that game, meaning that Tech had to drive the field most of the day, which they couldn’t do. The bend-but-don’t-break defense can work…if you don’t break.

…and finally, we learned that Ron McElvey was a play away from getting in at running back for Texas on Saturday.

Anyhow…

With three regular season games left to be played this season, most of the pre-season possibilities are still in play.

There is the 9-3 record that most of us believed might be the high water mark for a team that struggled to win five games all of last season, and still leaves that 10 win season that we all used to “meh” like crazy in reach. There is the 8-4 mark that Vegas itself thought we would reach this season, a very solid stepping stone season after a disastrous 2010 campaign with a respectable bowl berth and promise of a return to prominence next season.

There is the 7-5 mark that a few of us might have seen coming, with limited knowledge of the personnel on offense, a mostly-new secondary and a quarterback that struggled last season returning as the starter. And then there is the 6-6 record that a lot of us feared, one that showed that last season wasn’t just a fluke, that there is a system-wide problem here that could not be flushed out in the matter of one season.

Encouragement or disappointment. It could go either way.

Left on the schedule is a Kansas State squad that has been very solid this year, and is a program that has given Texas fits even when it was near the bottom of the Big 12 conference. There is the possible last meeting with Texas A&M, on the road in a hostile environment where eternal bragging rights could be on the line. Then there is an improved Baylor team that features a quarterback who can take over games…as we saw at DKR last season.

Which way will it go?

Lost in the midst of the turbulence of this season is the fact that this ranks right up there with Mack’s best coaching jobs at Texas….no, there isn’t a signature win, but to be sitting here at 6-3 in mid-November with a duo of quarterbacks that have as many touchdown passes as a quarterback who last played two months ago (Garrett Gilbert), and two wide receivers (John Harris and Jaxson Shipley) is truly remarkable.

Gone is the quit that last season’s team had. This defense has carried this offense all season, but hasn’t used the excuse of poor field position or fatigue. It has done its job without complaint and done it very well.

Sure, there are those that will fault Mack for is a recruiting philosophy that forced a true freshman into starting duty in the first place, and that would be completely fair, but we have already seen that change this season as prize recruit Connor Brewer will be joined by Tatum quarterback Jalen Overstreet next year on the 40 acres.

What do we need to see these last three games? We need to start seeing signs that David Ash is the man. Yes, all together now, he’s just a true freshman thus we can’t expect much from him, but at some point that has to stop being an excuse. We are 9 games into the season, and if you are a believer in the old adage, there aren’t any freshmen at this point of the season.

We saw the emotion after the long run against Texas Tech, we’ve heard the numerous practice reports on the Interwebz that place the guy somewhere in the middle of Tim Tebow and Joe Montana, we’ve heard that his teammates react to his leadership, but it is time to start to see glimpses that this guy can be the next one in a lineage of Vince Young and Colt McCoy, and that he’s not just a placeholder until the next great one comes along.

Football is a funny game in that if he completes even one or two of those passes against Missouri he is looked at very differently, and Texas probably wins the game, but the fact of the matter is that they were not completed. Plenty of freshmen or redshirt freshmen shine every season…we need to see glimpses of that from Ash to have a realistic shot at finishing this three game stretch with a winning record. The opportunity is there…all three of these teams have been torched through the air this season (KSU 117th in pass defense, A&M 119, Baylor 81)…show us.

This team entered this season with no identity, then it was the team with the dual quarterbacks, then it was the power rushing team, well now, if the running backs continue to be out or hindered, needs to be David Ash’s team. It needs to be his huddle, it needs to be his game plan, it needs to be his arm that wins us these games.

Perhaps he isn’t good enough right now to win them. But give him the opportunity and the game plan to be successful. If the season is going to ride on him, let’s get behind him, starting this Saturday evening.

On to the games...

Missississipi State @ Arkansas -13:
Arkansas is averaging 45 points per game in Fayetteville this season, but could be stymied by a Mississippi State defense that is only giving up 17 points per game in their last 8 ballgames…but haven’t faced nearly as potent of an offense as Arkansas in that stretch.

Arkansas 41 Mississippi State 17
ATS – Arkansas
SU – Arkansas

USC @ Oregon -14.5:

Oregon still has a shot at the national championship game, while USC is probably looking at this like their bowl game as they are ineligible for post-season play.

The health of Robert Woods is in question here, which is unfortunate because USC might need all the offense they can get. They have given up 100 points in their last two meetings with Oregon, and while their defense has been better this season, it still has had its lapses.

Oregon wins here, but Matt Barkley manages to keep it close.

Oregon 41 USC 34
ATS – USC
SU – Oregon

Nebraska @ Michigan -3.5:

Nebraska’s defense has been inconsistent, and doesn’t figure to get better against a Michigan team that has been prolific in Ann Arbor. Denard Robinson has to be better (13 interceptions on the year), and while he’s nursing a sore wrist, Michigan should get the victory here.

Michigan 31 Nebraska 23
ATS – Michigan
SU – Michigan

Oklahoma -15 @ Baylor:

For all the talk about Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, it is Baylor that has the best offensive statistics in the conference, averaging 568 yards per game. Baylor has never beaten Oklahoma in Big 12 play, and they don’t figure to here, but you have to think they can move the ball against a defense that gave up 527 yards to Texas A&M and 572 against Texas Tech.

Oklahoma wants the blowout victory, but it won’t happen here. Robert Griffin will give them too much trouble.

Oklahoma 48 Baylor 38
ATS – Baylor
SU – Oklahoma

Oklahoma State -25 @ Iowa State:

Win this one, and Oklahoma State has to only win against Oklahoma and they’ll be playing for a national championship. No pressure. Iowa State is riding a modest two game winning streak, but they don’t figure to give OSU much of a battle here.

Oklahoma State 52 Iowa State 16
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Kansas State @ Texas -9:

Let’s start on the easier side of the ball. Kansas State does what you think a Bill Snyder coached Kansas State team does: they run the ball, and they use the quarterback to run the football. Collin Klein is a 6’5” 226 lb. (Vince Young is 6’5” 232 lb for reference) former wide receiver who got his first start against Texas last year.

If you remember correctly, that is the game where they damn near took the opening kickoff back on us, and then scored a couple of plays later. Two guys touched the ball all night (Klein and now Miami Dolphins running back Daniel Thomas), no wide receiver recorded a reception all night, but yet the Wildcats still managed to put 39 points on the board…and then our coaching staff had the audacity to say that Klein starting threw them off…perhaps there is a reason Florida is 5-5 this season.

Klein is 26th in the country in rushing, and first in touchdowns with 24. Ricky Williams has the record with 27 rushing touchdowns in a season. He’ll run left, and he’ll run right, and then he’ll run up the middle, and occasionally they’ll hand it to the running back John Hubert. It’s the “See Tebow, Tackle Tebow” defense. Manny Diaz should be better prepared for it than his predecessor, but everyone should have been prepared for it this season and he’s beaten his opponent more often than not. The best to contain Klein this year? The Missouri team that just shut down our offense, held him to 45 yards on 24 carries (Kansas was the only other team to hold him under 100 this year, and that had nothing to do with Kansas and their defense).

Contain Klein and you roll KSU. But good luck with that.

On offense, who the hell knows? We don’t even know who will be playing in the game long after the opening kickoff, so your guess is as good as mine. The good news is that this isn’t the Bob Stoops/Phil Bennett defenses of old, this is a defense that allowed 690 yards to Oklahoma, 575 to Oklahoma State, 482 to Texas A&M and 580 to Texas Tech. The bad news is that those teams have a lot more weapons on offense than we do.

If you’re going to tell me that Brown, Bergeron and Shipley play, I say that Texas has a very good chance of coming out on top. If the running backs play, I think A&M last week showed you can run on KSU. If none of them play…well, baseball scores it is.

Maybe I’m just a hopeless optimist, but you’ve got to think that it will be better than last week, no matter who is playing. Texas grinds one out here.

Texas 24 Kansas State 21
ATS – Kansas State
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

Image

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Missouri’s We Need a New Field fund.

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

The Week That Will Be (11.12.2011)

Last Week: 3-3 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 32-28 (.533) ($80) ATS 41-19 (.683) SU


We learned last week that Oregon can throw for less than 170 yards, commit 9 penalties, can convert less than half of their third down conversions but can still beat a quality opponent on the road by 17…

…we learned that South Carolina is lost without Marcus Lattimore, committing four turnovers in the second half while barely managing 200 yards of offense…

…we learned that “The Game of the Century” wasn’t even “The Game That Started at 7:00 PM Central on 11/5/2011” as Alabama and LSU managed to set back offensive football about 30 years. Great theater, but I can’t handle four missed field goals, two quarterbacks on one team throwing for less than 100 yards combined and said quarterback running the wrong way on an option play…

…we learned that Oklahoma State can give up 507 offensive yards and improve upon their national ranking. Flashy stats are nice, but ask Oregon what happens when flashy offense meets tough defense…

…we learned that the Aggies can win in Norman…if you discount the third quarter. Texas A&M tried a new strategy of coming from behind in the second half, but failed miserably as Oklahoma scored on their first three drives of the half…

…and finally, we learned that the wishbone can’t be far behind at Texas, who rushed for 400 plus yards in two straight games for the first time since 1977.

Last week’s LSU/Alabama game was seen as a de facto National Championship Semi-Final, and while LSU is certainly deserving, I think we can all agree that we hope that one of the participants in the closest thing we have to a national championship game is better than what they showed on Saturday night. But can LSU trip up along the line? Let’s take a look at the BCS Championship game contenders…

LSU
Western Kentucky, @ Ole Miss, Arkansas, SEC Championship

We’ll see if LSU can get past that obvious trap game of Western Kentucky. Arkansas might provide a challenge, but with the game in Baton Rouge you have to like LSU’s chances. And Georgia or South Carolina don’t provide much of a challenge in Atlanta. Pencil in LSU for New Orleans…which drives me nuts. They seem to rise to the occasion when the game is in the Crescent City, no?

Oklahoma State
@ Texas Tech, @ Iowa State, Oklahoma

Save another spoil job by Texas Tech in Lubbock this weekend, Oklahoma State will go into Bedlam with a “win and go to the national championship” shot…and they haven’t defeated Oklahoma since 2002. That is despite being favored the last two years (47-41 in 2010 and 27-0 in 2009). In 2008 OSU was thought to be just as good as Oklahoma and lost 61-41. Get over that mental hurdle and you’re in…but that is like saying buy Alessandra Ambrosio a drink and you have a chance. It’s going to take a lot of work to get over that.

Alabama
@ Mississippi State, Georgia Southern, @ Auburn

Alabama has the advantage of not having to go to the SEC Championship game, but should they survive the Iron Bowl, they’ll have to ward off other one loss teams (or Boise State) and get past the stigma of a rematch in the title game…no matter how that first game went. If everyone else collapses, I can see it, but Alabama has an uphill climb here.

Stanford & Oregon
Oregon, California, Notre Dame; @ Stanford, USC, Oregon State

I’ll go ahead and put these two together since they are about in the same boat. Stanford wins out and OSU falls and they are in. Oregon might have a tougher lobbying job, but you have to like their chances. Notre Dame could be very tough for Stanford, while USC is playing very well right now, and either team could see them again in the Pac-12 championship game. It wouldn’t surprise me if both of these teams drop a game (yes, one of them has to lose this weekend).

Boise State
TCU, @ San Diego State, Wyoming, New Mexico

Oh, Boise is like the SEC and schedules their out of conference patsies at the end of the year…oh wait, that is their conference? Hmm. TCU and San Diego State can beat Boise…Wyoming and New Mexico have about as much chance as Rick Perry does winning the Republican Primary. Still, chances are that Boise will finish undefeated…and play Alabama in the Sugar Bowl or Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

Oklahoma; Arkansas
@ Baylor, Iowa State, @ Oklahoma State; Tennessee, Mississippi State, @ LSU

Oklahoma’s chances looked a lot better before Alabama only dropped to #3 last week. They basically need to win out, have Stanford and Oregon both drop one, beg that Alabama doesn’t get the rematch vote and beg that Boise State plays late at night and nobody notices that they finish undefeated. There is still a chance…but they need a lot of help. But let’s not kid ourselves, this is Oklahoma, these things happen for them. Arkansas has an interesting road…win out and they are in the SEC Championship game, win that….and does anyone keep them out of New Orleans? Sure, they got manhandled by Alabama, but they would have beaten #1 LSU and a Top 12 Georgia or South Carolina team…they would certainly have as good of an argument as any of these other teams mentioned.

So who makes it? Well I’ve offered my prediction twice this year only to have one of the teams lose that very week. I’ll abstain.

On to the games...

TCU @ Boise State -15.5:

Defense is a TCU mainstay, but this year that hasn’t been the case. The Horned Frogs rank only 38th in the country in total defense and gave up 1,018 yards in their two losses to Baylor and SMU. Boise comes into this one a little banged up, and coming off very lackluster wins against Air Force and UNLV.

Boise’s weak spot in those games was the rushing defense, and if there is one thing that TCU does well this year it is run the football. Boise wins…but close well into the fourth quarter.

Boise State 34 TCU 24
ATS – TCU
SU – Boise State

Auburn @ Georgia -12.5:

Well, I originally had the Penn State/Nebraska game in this slot, but with Wednesday night’s events it is apparent that there are far more serious concerns in State College than football.

Georgia has had an interesting strategy this season, dropping their first two games to drop off the national radar before winning their last seven. They’ve done it with defense, only giving up 20 points twice in that span.

Auburn has struggled against the top teams, but have held their own against the next tier. I think they stay in this one.

Georgia 28 Auburn 24
ATS – Auburn
SU – Georgia

Oregon @ Stanford -3.5:

The winner of this game likely has the inside lane to New Orleans should Oklahoma State fall before season’s end, and if it is anything like Oregon’s 52-31 win last year in Eugene, it should be entertaining (if you like scoring with your football games).

With Stanford’s problem with injuries (Two of Andrew Luck’s top four targets are out), their lack of team speed and the fact that Stanford has yet to play an opponent of this caliber yet, I see Oregon winning this one with a little comfort.

Oregon 37 Stanford 28
ATS – Oregon
SU – Oregon

Texas A&M -5 @ Kansas State:

Both of these teams have lost two games in a row…kind of expected for Kansas State, disastrous for Texas A&M. This week is a slightly better match-up for the Aggies, as Kansas State struggles to defend the pass while struggling to throw the ball downfield themselves.

I will probably regret this, but looking at this match-up, this is a game the Aggies should win and win comfortably. If they haven’t given up on the season, that is.

Texas A&M 31 Kansas State 24
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – Texas A&M

Oklahoma State -17 @ Texas Tech:

The over/under on this game is 78.5 points…which is a little high based on recent history (51 total points in 2010; 41 in 2009). This one looks to be higher scoring, as Texas Tech hasn’t given up less than 34 points since Week 2 against New Mexico, while Oklahoma State hasn’t given up less than 24 points since….Week 2 against Arizona.

You also have to wonder about the pressure mounting on the Cowboys…they are three victories (and will likely be favored in all three) from the national championship game…can they go into a historical tough place to play in the Big 12 and win?

Oklahoma State 42 Texas Tech 31
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Oklahoma State

Texas -1.5 @ Missouri:

Sure, Missouri is 4-5, but the teams that have beat them have a combined record of 35-9 on the season…and two of those teams have beaten Texas as well.

Missouri likes to run the football, averaging 244 yards per game on the ground this season (just behind Texas and their 246), but can also pass the ball as well, throwing for 291 against Oklahoma and 319 against Arizona State earlier this season. For the first time this season, Texas will face a mobile quarterback, as first-year starter James Franklin has rushed for a gross of 735 yards this year. Franklin has been efficient as well, combining 6 of his 7 interceptions into three games, losses to Oklahoma State and Kansas State and a win over Iowa State.

On defense, the Tigers have a nice front, but they struggle. They gave up 686 yards to Baylor, 500 to Texas A&M, 533 to Oklahoma State, 592 to Oklahoma and 492 to Arizona State. The problem being, of course, that most, if not all, of those teams have a better offense than Texas.

That Texas offense is on a roll, rushing for 880 yards the last two games while only giving up 28 rushing yards. That is video game quality right there.

Texas is going to have to be better here. While the running game is fun, at some point David Ash is going to have to make a play with his arm, and that very well might be this game against a Missouri offense that can get you in shootouts.

With an early start time that should take the crowd out of the game, and a running game that can control the clock better than the opposition, Texas comes out on top here…but it might get dicey.

Texas 27 Missouri 24
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

Image

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for new SEC! t-shirts.

Thursday, November 3, 2011

The Week That Will Be (11.05.2011)

Last Week: 4-2 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 29-25 (.537) ($110) ATS 36-18 (.667) SU


We learned last week that a game with 186 passing yards between the two teams (Michigan State/Nebraska) is about as exciting as it sounds, and we didn’t even have Grantland Rice around to spice it up...

…we learned that Clemson is Clemson and the ACC is the ACC…Texas Tech would be a nice fit if realignment should choose…

…we learned that Andrew Luck is fallible, but not by USC, and that the officiating crew in this game pulled a nice double duty as the home plate umpire in Game Seven of the World Series…

…we learned that Baylor is not the nation’s leader in yardage efficiency as the Bears actually out-gained Oklahoma State 622-599, but had only 3 points through three quarters. Yardage Efficiency is a complete made-up stat…I think. Don’t look that up.

…we learned that no, Toto, Kansas State is not in Kansas anymore as Oklahoma kicked their ass all the way to Saskatchewan (spelled it correctly on the first try, score). Oklahoma gained nearly as many yards as from Manhattan to Saskatchewan, 690 in all (In actuality Manhattan, KS to Saskatchewan is 2,299,868.67 yards).

…And finally, we learned that for at least one night, Texas can dominate a conference opponent once again.

Anyhow…

With Halloween over and Thanksgiving fast approaching, we here at The Week That Will Be want to take some time this week and help you make those holiday plans a little easier by giving you our annual Bowl Projections…

The Tired of Hearing About It Bowl – Conference Realignment vs. Conference Realignment

Screw it, we’re going intrasquad here, because honestly when has so much been made about so little? When the biggest move is Boise State joining the Big East, something is wrong here. Texas A&M was allowed to hold college football news hostage for the last three months when they’re going to have to fire yet another coach for pulling a Franchione here pretty soon. Missouri has the football tradition of Prairie View and they’ve dominated the headlines the last month. Just get it over with already.

The It’s Me, Not You Bowl – TCU vs. Kim Kardashian

TCU was a member of the Big East for almost a year—Kim Kardashian was married to Kris Humphries for 72 days…but TCU never actually played any games in the Big East, so these have to be about the equivalent, right? Kardashian’s deal with E! to televise her wedding might have been more than the Big East’s football television contract, especially when the networks notice that Houston, Air Force, SMU and Navy have been added to the roster.

Let’s just hope that TCU doesn’t run back to Reggie Bush. That might be awkward.

The Inevitable Bowl – Oklahoma vs. Kim Kardashian

Oklahoma looks like they had Kourtney and Khloe Kardashian playing in the secondary against Texas Tech…Texas Tech goes out, starts Bruce Jenner and Kendall Jenner at linebacker against Iowa State, gets reamed by an Iowa State team that couldn’t stay within 16 points of any other conference team, but yet Oklahoma moves up to 7th in the human polls and 5th in the computer polls because Kansas State’s magic finally ran out. They’ll likely win out since Oklahoma State urinates all over themselves at the mere sight of an OU logo…which will put them in the BCS Championship Game shall Stanford fall along the way somewhere.

And you know Kim Kardashian will be on with Barbara Walters and Diane Sawyer next week balling her eyes out, meanwhile she probably couldn’t even tell you her husband’s first name or which team he used to play basketball for when there was an NBA. She’ll get back with Reggie Bush, or start dating Cam Newton or somesuch and we’ll have to hear the dumb broad’s story again, which E! will gladly fork over $30 million to show her next wedding.

There has to be some Vegas casino taking prop bets on this. Someone check into it.

The Opposite of the Midas Touch Bowl – Will Muschamp vs. the cast of Boardwalk Empire

While this season of Boardwalk Empire is all about what happens when everything goes to the dumper, Will Muschamp is quickly finding out in Gainesville that yelling and screaming and cussing and chest bumping and getting a lot of views on YouTube doesn’t win football games, nor does half of your team getting kicked off the squad for (not even synthetic) marijuana possession or other assorted mischief. Muschamp will get a couple of years to install his system, of course, but there is already some rumbling going on in Florida, and Mack Brown’s voodoo doll might just work again.

The Let’s See How Many Times We Can Mention Kardashian Bowl – US Weekly vs. HornMafia
Last mention, I promise.

The Alamo Bowl – Texas vs. Arizona State

I figure Texas drops one more the rest of the way, setting up a rematch of the 2007 Holiday Bowl. Texas fans chant “Rudy” out of habit.

The Orange Bowl – Clemson vs. West Virginia

The nation is shocked that the Orange Bowl doesn’t sound like it will suck for the first time since Tom Osborne was coaching.

The Sugar Bowl – LSU vs. Boise State

LSU gets yet another home game while Boise completes an undefeated season with a trip to New Orleans…a week earlier than they wanted.

The Rose Bowl – Nebraska vs. Oregon

Nebraska tries to downplay their last trip to the Rose Bowl, a shellacking in the championship game against Miami, but then promptly get their ass handed to them by Oregon. Tom Osborne moves to get Pasadena banned from college football and changes conferences again.

The Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma State vs. Stanford

Stanford tries to replicate Miami’s 1987 Fiesta Bowl swagger by getting off the plane wearing….pocket protectors. Oklahoma State still loses.

The BCS National Championship Game – Alabama vs. Oklahoma

Pork rinds are at a premium in New Orleans this week as Oklahoma backs into yet another BCS Championship Game…and promptly gets their ass handed to them again.

On to the games...

Oregon -16.5 @ Washington:

It is the last game at Husky Stadium…at least this iteration of it before it undergoes a $250 million renovation, but don’t expect any heroics from the home team.

Washington has held serve with most on its schedule (thus the 6-2 record), but has given up 116 points to the two powers it has faced this year, Nebraska and Stanford. Don’t expect any less from an Oregon team that is averaging 526 yards per game.

Oregon 48 Washington 27
ATS – Oregon
SU – Oregon

South Carolina @ Arkansas -5:

South Carolina has been somewhat lackluster on offense, especially since the dismissal of Stephen Garcia, but their defense has been nails, only giving up 37 points in five games, albeit against Vanderbilt, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Tennessee. The Gamecocks boast the 3rd best pass defense in the country, but I think they’ll be out of their element here against an Arkansas team that has struggled somewhat, but should be looking forward to being home again.

Arkansas 31 South Carolina 17
ATS – Arkansas
SU – Arkansas

LSU @ Alabama -4.5:

This year’s version of the “Game of the Century” matches these two SEC powers, one of which leads the country in scoring defense at just under a touchdown a game, the other one that allows about 11.5 points per game.

So you know about the defenses…but Jarrett Lee at LSU was supposed to be an afterthought this year, but he leads the country in TD/INT ratio (13/1) and leads the SEC in passing efficiency. The Tigers also feature a pair of physical running backs in Spencer Ware and Michael Ford.

For Alabama, A.J. McCarron has been a Greg McElroy starter kit, throwing for 10 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions, and executing perfect handoffs to Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy.
This should be a close out throughout, but it just comes down to me that I trust Alabama’s skill players more than I trust LSU’s. Alabama’s only home loss since 2007 was a one-point loss to national champion Auburn last year, so it will be a feat for LSU to come in there and get a victory.

Alabama 24 LSU 17
ATS – Alabama
SU – Alabama

Kansas State @ Oklahoma State -21:

Oklahoma State’s offense gets all the accolades, and while their defense doesn’t have the prettiest numbers, it does lead the country in turnover margin at 2.38.

The key here is if the Cowboys can stop Kansas State’s running game and get their offense back out on the field.

The Cowboys seem to be on a mission this year, and although K-State could certainly run the ball and keep it close, in Stillwater I expect OSU to step up on both sides of the ball.

Oklahoma State 48 Kansas State 21
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Texas A&M @ Oklahoma -13.5:

The Aggies entered the season ranked among the Top 10 best teams in the country, but they enter Norman unranked with a record of 5-3 and staring at a .500 record with Kansas State next week. I don’t see the nation’s worst pass defense (giving up 318 yards per game) getting healthy against the nation’s second best pass offense (averaging 396 yards per game).

A&M won’t have to worry about blowing a second half lead this game, as they won’t be in it.

Oklahoma 45 Texas A&M 23
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Texas Tech @ Texas -14.5:

Let’s get two things out of the way quickly here: 1.) I don’t know how the hell Texas Tech beat Oklahoma looking at their other games this year; and 2.) Quit it with this notion that Texas Tech will be “angry” coming into DKR and looking to atone for last week’s blowout loss to Iowa State.

The former first: Tech doesn’t get “angry”, they get “drunk”, eat balls of bovines and then pass out in the yard of some frat house. They’re good for about one spoiler victory a year, but then they go back into their shell and meander through the rest of the season only to end it in a mid-tier bowl game, where they apparently get drunk the night before the game and then get blown out.

The latter next…In their season opener against Texas State, they were down at the half and gave up 256 rushing yards; against Nevada in Lubbock they needed a touchdown with :36 seconds left and gave up 562 offensive yards in the process; against Kansas they were down 20-0 almost immediately and gave up 478 yards to that team we saw last week; against Texas A&M they gave up 31 first half points; Kansas State put up 27 points in the second and third quarters; and finally, if you take away the one sack, three Iowa State rushers had 100 yards.

Tech is as dangerous as ever in the passing game, but their running game has been DOA since the injury to Eric Stephens…contain Seth Doege and you beat Tech, simple as that.

On offense, I would be disappointed if the Longhorns don’t run for 200 plus yards. Iowa State was able to hold on to the ball for more than 40 minutes last week (which Texas did against Kansas as well). Run the ball, control the clock and hit their receivers in the mouth. Tech has six turnovers in their last three games, so they like to give it to the wrong jersey, too.

This one could be dicey, but c’mon, does anyone expect Tech to show up for two road games?

Texas 31 Texas Tech 20
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

Image

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for your date with Kim Kardashian. Oops.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

The Week That Will Be (10.29.2011)

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 3-3 SU
For the Year: 25-23 (.521) ($50) ATS 32-16 (.667) SU


We learned last week that we learned that instant replay does work in major sports (Wisconsin/Michigan State)…I’m talking to you, MLB.

…we learned that Stanford can run all over Washington like a LMFAO song, to the tune of 446 yards.

…we learned that Notre Dame = me and USC = my wife and our closet = Notre Dame Stadium.

…we learned that the Aggies were about as interested in playing Iowa State as Tony La Russa was in seeing Lance Lynn pitch for the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday night.

…we learned that Oklahoma State defenders might as well be waving the wheat at opposing running backs, but it doesn’t matter when you run 2 for 1 specials on the opposing defense.

And finally, we learned that 39 game home winning streaks are made to be broken.

Anyhow…

If it wasn’t for Texas…

The last Big 12 win for Texas at home?

You remember it. You probably remember it very well.

You might remember the bomb to James Kirkendoll in front of Section 1 for a touchdown. Perhaps you remember Jordan Shipley tip toeing down the sideline on the north end of the stadium. Then there was the bomb over the middle to Malcolm Williams for a 61 yard score. And finally, there was another score for Kirkendoll in the fourth quarter.

Then you certainly remember the dogpile by all the seniors at mid-field after the game…all except for one.

Colt McCoy took his own lap that night, Senior Night of course, glad-handing those that might have doubted him in the beginning, thanking those that came to love him in the end. He just came off a glistening performance of 396 yards passing, four touchdowns and only nine incompletions in 41 attempts. As he stopped to take a picture with the cheerleaders, with the crowd chanting Texas….Fight….…his favorite song rang over the PA system, George Strait’s Texas.

Unfortunately, in many ways that would be McCoy’s last hurrah. Texas won a Big 12 Championship Game where McCoy was on the ground more than he was making plays on it. And of course we all know the atrocity that occurred in Pasadena.

More than 700 days have passed since that cool November night, but the joyful aura that surrounded the stadium that evening was seemingly 1400 days ago.

Championship dreams turned to utter disgust in 2010, and while there is more promise in 2011, one must consider the fact that last year’s team sat right here with the same record before losing five out of its final six games, with another twenty-plus underdog opponent coming to Austin that nobody outside of that opposing city thought that they could ever lose to.

2009 was an eternity ago in more ways than one. But if you really want to show the progress that hasn’t been evident around here since the first half against Iowa State earlier this year, pound the hell out of Kansas.

With all due respect to Turner Gill and his squad, the Longhorns are served a meaty dish on their plate this week after getting pushed around for two weeks by teams that were simply better than they were.

Do what good teams do and run this team into the ground.

This Kansas squad has yet to give up less than 42 points to a FBS opponent, including a Northern Illinois squad that would love to have the talent that we have on our roster. Kansas State and Texas Tech would probably love to have the talent that is on our roster as well.

It is time for youth to stop serving as an excuse and start serving as a threat.

Throttle the opponent before you on Saturday, and while it won’t cause any shockwaves throughout the conference, it will at least service notice that you can take care of the business that is before you…something that wasn’t done last season.

Then maybe, just maybe, we can start to envision a joyous aura returning to this stadium one day.

And that ridiculous streak will be no more.

On to the games...

Michigan State @ Nebraska -4:

The challenge in this one is how does Michigan State react to be the hunted instead of the hunter? They’ve ventured on the road twice this season, getting hammered by Notre Dame (31-13) and holding down Ohio State (10-7). Add to those two factors that this is the last of a gauntlet of emotional games (@ Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin), and you wonder how much they have left in the tank.

With each team playing into the other’s defensive strength (Michigan State can’t run but can pass, Nebraska can’t stop the run but can stop the pass; Michigan State’s defense is ranked second nationally), expect a low scoring game with MSU being the better team here.

Michigan State 20 Nebraska 16
ATS – Michigan State
SU – Michigan State

Clemson -3.5 @ Georgia Tech:

As a great man in movie lore once said, “it’s a trap.” How in the world does Clemson only enter this game as a little over a field goal favorite when Georgia Tech was defeated soundly by Miami last week? Tech averaged a pitiful 2.8 yards per carry and had only 211 total yards, meanwhile Clemson enters this game averaging 40 points per game?

Georgia Tech does have a good pass defense thus far (giving up only 170 yards per game through the air), but haven’t faced anyone like Clemson. There is always the potential to “pull a Clemson” here (especially with a defense that has given up 83 points in the last two games), but the Tigers should roll.

Clemson 41 Georgia Tech 31
ATS – Clemson
SU – Clemson

Stanford -7.5 @ USC:

There wasn’t much thought of USC staying in this one until last week’s victory over Notre Dame, but realistically there still shouldn’t be much talk. Yes, the Trojans earned that victory with 443 total yards, but Notre Dame didn’t help themselves with 3 turnovers.

Southern Cal is looking at the best offense they’ve faced all year as well as the best defense they’ve faced all year. That doesn’t bode well.

Stanford 41 USC 24
ATS – Stanford
SU – Stanford

Baylor @ Oklahoma State -14:

I want to like Baylor. Robert Griffin is a special, special player. But then I look at that defense that has given up at least 26 points to every FBS opponent they have faced this season, is giving up 425 yards per game, 33 points per game and couldn’t even force Texas A&M to punt, and I’m wondering how they give the ball enough to RGIII to win this game.

Baylor should be able to put some points up late, but Oklahoma State might go for 60.

Oklahoma State 52 Baylor 28
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Oklahoma -13.5 @ Kansas State:
This is not a good match-up for Kansas State. Sure, if the Oklahoma that dropped pass after pass comes into Manhattan and pulls that act again, or if On the Road Landry shows up they have a shot, but to this point, Kansas State has relied on a somewhat healthy running game, virtually nothing from the passing game, a stout run defense and timely turnovers. Those don’t last forever.

Robert Griffin threw for 346 yards but Baylor had 3 turnovers. Seth Doege at Texas Tech was about to throw for 446, but Tech turned it over 4 times and lost. Is this Kansas State defense opportunistic…or lucky?

Oklahoma isn’t as good as they were against Texas, but whatever warts they showed against Texas Tech, Kansas State doesn’t have the offense to exploit them.

Oklahoma 37 Kansas State 17
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Kansas @ Texas -28:

I don’t want to beat a dead horse here, and others on this site have told you similar things, but I really don’t think it can be over stated how bad this Kansas defense has been this year.

You know they are allowing opponents half a hundred points per game, you know they are giving up 550 yards per game (to put that in perspective, 550 yards on offense would rank you second in the country in total offense; 50 points per game would lead FBS). They’ve also allowed two opponents, Georgia Tech and Kansas State, to nearly double their season average in points per game.

It’s like they give you a menu at the beginning of the game and ask whether you would like to run all day or pass all day, or splurge and do both.

Their offense isn’t terrible. Quarterback Jordan Webb is 16th in the country in passing efficiency, but you have to wonder if that is because teams like Oklahoma State took out their starters in the second quarter and didn’t really care if Jordan Webb marched his team up and down the field because they could get this game over faster.

On a team full of freshmen and sophomores, one that hasn’t experienced a win in nearly a full month, you have to hammer them and gain confidence going into the second half of the season.

Show us what you got.

Texas 48 Kansas 13
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

Image

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for souvenir coal in West Virginia.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

The Week That Will Be (10.22.2011)

Last Week: 4-2 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 23-19 (.548) ($170) ATS 29-13 (.690) SU


Last week we learned that…well we didn’t learn much about LSU that we didn’t already know. They like to run the ball (260 yards), don’t like to pass the ball (123 yards), but like it even less when you do either (339 total offensive yards for Tennessee).

…we learned that Michigan State’s defense is for real, holding Denard Robinson to 165 total yards and Michigan to a total of 250 yards as a team.

…we learned that you can take LaMichael James and Darron Thomas out of the game, but you can’t take Oregon’s offense away.

…we learned that despite being outgained by nearly 250 yards, Kansas State wins ballgames by running the football (193 yards) and not turning the ball over (0 turnovers to Texas Tech’s 4).

…we learned that it is hard to win ballgames, on the other hand, when you give up 415 yards passing, 6 touchdowns, 35 first downs and don’t force the opponent to punt the football all day. RGIII or not, Baylor isn’t going to improve upon the Texas Bowl until they turn that around.

…and finally, we learned that you can cut Brandon Weeden’s passing yards in half from one year to another, but it doesn’t matter if you allow the back-up running back to rush for 140 yards and you only average 2.2 YPA on your side of the football. A much better performance than last week, but moral victories aren’t counted on the Freddie Steinmark scoreboard.

Anyhow…

Believe it or not we are now halfway through the season so it is time to do our annual mid-season awards, for which you get no trophy, but you might get a snarky comment or two.

The Chaps Girl Award (MVP): Not only is there not a clear winner this year, but you might have trouble narrowing down a list of who gets to go to New York and dodge large piles of trash on the sidewalks and gets to pay $14 for a cocktail. You have great candidates like Robert Griffin III, Kellen Moore, Trent Richardson and Landry Jones, but to me the winner is Andrew Luck. Stanford is winning games by an average of 26 points, haven’t scored less than 37 points and don’t have another marquee player on that offense.

The Herschel Walker Award (Freshman of the Year): It isn’t a great year for freshmen in college football. We could have talked about De’Anthony Thomas for Oregon or Isaiah Crowell at Georgia, but we’re homers so we’re going to pick Jaxon Shipley. He’s trailed off as of late, but the kid looks just as good as his brother did in his upperclassman years. And he’ll only get better.

The Eric Taylor Award (Coach of the Year): Gulp. Okay, we’ll tell you how good Clemson and Dabo Swinney has looked thus far this year, but those impressive wins over Auburn, Florida State and Virginia Tech look pretty meh right now. Bill Snyder at Kansas State has done a great job, but would we really be surprised if they finish at 8-4? No, it is with great apprehension that we go with Les Miles, who might be that “special” kid in the cafeteria, but he’s beaten Oregon, West Virginia and Mississippi State when that was still an impressive thing to do. The only thing between LSU and an undefeated schedule is a road trip to Tuscaloosa in early November.

The Rich Kotite Award (Worst Coach of the Year): Look no further than Jumbo Fisher at Florida State, who did lose his quarterback against Oklahoma, but what is a Top 5 pre-season team doing losing to Wake Forest?

The Better Go To Walgreens Award (Surprise of the Year): See above. Florida State losing to Wake Forest was a setback, but then again, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised…the Seminoles have now lost 4 out of 6 to Wake.

The (Insert Failed Sound From The Price is Right Here) (Disappointment of the Year): You have Ohio State and Mississippi State falling completely on their faces, but once again, we must look at pre-season champion Texas A&M, who sit at 4-2 with come from ahead losses to Oklahoma State and Arkansas. At least with their move to the SEC the Aggies won’t have to worry about high expectations.

The Betty Ford Award (Outstanding Achievement For Wasted Talent): The good news for others hoping to take this award home is that [b]Stephen Garcia appears to be out of chances at South Carolina. Like his other suspensions at South Carolina, Garcia’s latest this off-season didn’t cost him any games…he managed to work his way from the bench, threw 9 interceptions in 5 games, turned to the dark side again and was promptly kicked off the team.

The Les Miles Award (LSU’s Punter): I’m not even going to bother looking up the kid’s name, and the taunting call was BS, but still, you’re a punter, run into the endzone, put down the ball and go to the oxygen tank.

The Chris Rock Award (Most Cussing on the Sidelines): Will Muschamp had to apologize to the media this week for his antics on the sidelines during a 17-6 loss to Auburn earlier this month. Perhaps Muschamp should realize that is isn’t the official’s fault that his team is 4-3.

The Lock That Isn’t a Lock To Get to the National Championship Game: With the Honey Badger getting suspended and LSU running out a fast food contest winner every week at quarterback, give me Alabama and Wisconsin in New Orleans for the championship game. Where we go from there is anyone’s guess, but it might set a record for the number of fat white people in New Orleans at one time.

On to the games...

Wisconsin -7.5 @ Michigan State:

Tale of two ballgames here: (1) Russell Wilson has thrown 4 4th quarter passes all season…is Wisconsin prepared to face a quality opponent on the road? ; (2) Yes, we learned last week that Michigan State’s defense is for real, but they’ll have their biggest test yet this week.

Wisconsin’s offense gets all the accolades, but the defense is allowing a shade under 10 points per game. Michigan State’s offense is solid, but they’ve also struggled against mediocre defenses thus far.
The defense might help the Spartans for a while, but I think Wisconsin eventually wears them down due to the inability of Michigan State to move the football.

Wisconsin 31 Michigan State 17
ATS – Wisconsin
SU – Wisconsin

Washington @ Stanford -20.5:

Washington doesn’t do much great, but they are 5-1, with that one loss a 13 point loss to Nebraska in Lincoln. Stanford has been great, but this is their first opponent with much of a pulse. The Cardinal win, but Sarkisian keeps it close.

Stanford 41 Washington 27
ATS – Washington
SU – Stanford

USC @ Notre Dame -9.5:

USC can’t stop anybody, giving up 84 combined points to the state of Arizona and ranking 105th in the country in pass defense, but Notre Dame is getting a bit too much credit here for a four game winning streak where they have been outgained in two of those wins.

It has been 10 years since Notre Dame beat Southern California in South Bend. That will change this year, but not before the Trojans give them a scare (ahem).

Notre Dame 31 USC 28
ATS – USC
SU – Notre Dame

Texas A&M -20.5 @ Iowa State:

Since starting the season 3-0, Iowa State has been outscored 138-57 in three straight losses. It doesn’t get any better this week.

Texas A&M 51 Iowa State 17
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – Texas A&M

Oklahoma State -7 @ Missouri:

Two things here: (1) Oklahoma State is playing the last of a 4 out of 5 games on the road, with a start time of 11 AM…are they due for a letdown here? ; (2) Missouri’s best games this year are both losses, a valiant effort in Norman against Oklahoma and an overtime loss to Arizona State in Tempe. How good are they?

The Cowboys will struggle for a half before pulling away after the half. There is too much on the line for OSU this year to trip up here.

Oklahoma State 38 Missouri 23
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma -29.5:

2000: Oklahoma 27 Texas Tech 13
2002: Oklahoma 60 Texas Tech 15
2004: Oklahoma 28 Texas Tech 13
2006: Oklahoma 34 Texas Tech 24
2008: Oklahoma 65 Texas Tech 21
2010: Oklahoma 45 Texas Tech 7

Oklahoma might not be able to win in Lubbock (haven’t won there since 2003), but there are death, taxes and Oklahoma kicking the crap out of Texas Tech in Norman.

Let’s average the points out, give Oklahoma an extra 10 points to account for a Texas Tech defense that has given up 154 points in the last four games, can’t pressure the quarterback and can’t stop the run and take away a point from Texas Tech for starting a quarterback that has a bad consonant/vowel ratio and we have a final.

Oklahoma 53 Texas Tech 14
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Random Hot Dallas Chick

Image

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for World Series tickets in Arlington.