Wednesday, October 28, 2009

The Week That Will Be (10.31.09)



Last Week: 5-1 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 23-24-1 (.489) ($340) ATS 33-15 (.688) SU


What we learned last week:

We learned that Alabama can block field goals with their armpits, Lane Kiffin can be a moron, Tennessee can out-gain the Crimson Tide by 80 yards and Kirk Herbstreit can say with a straight face that it was an impressive win…

We learned that if TCU can make BYU look like a total fraud, and that Gary Patterson will be a very rich man very soon…

We learned that Tim Tebow can take the media attention when they’re praising him, but runs away like a little school girl when things go rough. Take a lesson from Colt McCoy, 8lb6ozLordBabyTebow, who had a bad outing against Oklahoma, couldn’t talk because he was sick but still managed to conduct an interview on the field after the game. The media has made you and now you turn your back on them. Classy…

We learned that apparently “fat little girlfriends” are the reason that Texas Tech gave up 321 yards to a Texas A&M team that even after that game only averages 180 yards on the ground…

We learned that Todd Reesing mistakenly thought that Kansas was wearing white at home as he threw 3 interceptions in the first half against Oklahoma. Someone told him at halftime that they were wearing blue…

And finally, we learned that you don’t schedule Texas for homecoming, nor do you give the Longhorn receivers a 10 yard cushion all night…

Anyhow…

It seems appropriate that the Longhorns travel to Stillwater on Halloween weekend, because Boone Pickens Stadium has been a nightmare…for both teams.

Mack Brown’s Longhorns have traveled to Stillwater five times, and in four of those contests they have had to comeback from a significant deficit in order to win the ballgame.

In 2001, the Horns hit the road following a 14-3 loss at the hands of the Sooners. The Longhorns were down 10-0 less than 7 minutes into the game after a Rashaun Woods TD reception from OSU QB Aso Pogi. The first quarter ended and the Longhorns still hadn’t scored, but they quickly scored 31 points in the second quarter and scored 45 unanswered points until Oklahoma State ran a kickoff back late to make the final score 45-17. The game was best known as Cedric Benson’s first start, where he rushed for 131 yards on 31 carries the week after only getting one snap against Oklahoma.

In 2003, the Longhorns traveled to Stillwater, coming off a 31-7 spanking of #12 Nebraska. The Longhorns fell down 16-7 in the second quarter and trailed 16-14 at halftime. The Longhorns quickly turned that around in the second half, scoring 27 points in the 3rd quarter, highlighted by a Michael Huff 27 yard interception return for a touchdown. The Horns won 55-16 behind 309 yards rushing, led by Cedric Benson with 186 yards and Vince Young with 97.

In 2005, Texas came to Oklahoma State steamrolling every prior opponent with the exception of Ohio State. The Longhorns the week before had disposed of #10 Texas Tech 52-17, had passed USC in the BCS standings and were expected to quickly dispose of 3-4 Oklahoma State, who was 0-4 in Big 12 play. Oklahoma State scored on a 4th and 1 from the Texas 49 on their second possession with a TD pass to D’Juan Woods. Texas took the ball on the next drive and scored a touchdown, but the David Pino kick was blocked, and the Longhorns still trailed 7-6.

The Cowboys scored a touchdown on their next drive, and then scored another touchdown after a Vince Young interception. The Longhorns sandwiched two field goals around another OSU touchdown and they headed to the locker rooms at halftime down 28-12.

Early in the second half, though, it happened. One of the signature plays of the Vince Young era, as he rolled right, started to run and faked an OSU defender who jumped about 15 feet in the air as Young jogged 80 yards to a touchdown.



After that, you pretty much knew how the rest of the half was going to go, as the Longhorns scored four more touchdowns and left Stillwater with a 47-28 victory on their way to a national championship.

In 2007, Texas came into the game with 2 losses, and would have lost the week before against Nebraska were it not for a ridiculous 4th quarter by Jamaal Charles, who rushed for 216 yards and had touchdown runs of 25, 86 and 40 yards.

Texas again quickly fell behind 7-0 to Oklahoma State on a Dantrell Savage 4 yard run, and then 14-0 when Colt McCoy was picked off by Jacob Lacey and returned 39 yards for an interception. A Zac Robinson 7 yard run early in the second period made it 21-0 Oklahoma State, and it looked like the rout was on.

The Longhorns scored on two straight possessions as Jamaal Charles had a 22 yard run and Jermichael Finley caught a 20 yard pass from Colt McCoy. But Oklahoma State roared back, scoring with no time left in the first half on a 1 yard pass to Brandon Pettigrew, and Oklahoma State took a 28-14 lead to the locker room.

The third quarter belonged to Oklahoma State, who drove 94 yards and scored on a 28 yard pass from Robinson to Adarius Bowman. When the fourth quarter began, the Longhorns were down 35-14 and they appeared to be dead in the water.

But the 4th quarter belonged to the Horns. Charles scored from 18 yards out with 11:40 left on the clock, and then the Horns got the ball on their own 1 yard line on their next possession, moved it out of the shadow of their own goalposts, and Charles again scored on a 75 yard run.



The Longhorns had another 90+ yard drive in them, this one capped off by a Vondrell McGee 1 yard run as the Horns tied it up with 3:22 remaining in the game. The Cowboys had a 40 yard pass to Savage and set up for a 32 yard field goal with 1:13 left in the ballgame. Once again, it appeared the game was over, but once again the Longhorns were bailed out when the Jason Ricks field goal sailed to the right, no good.

Colt McCoy and the Horns drove down the field, highlighted by a 30 yard pass to Finley and a miraculous scramble by McCoy to give Texas a first down at the OSU 27 with 23 ticks left on the clock. A Jamaal Charles 4 yard gain later, and the Horns called a timeout with 2 seconds left on the clock and set up for their own field goal at the OSU 23. Ryan Bailey, who won a game at Nebraska with no time on the clock the year before, did it again, and the Horns escaped Stillwater with a 38-35 win.

All in all, in the 2003, 2005 and 2007 contests the Longhorns outscored OSU 110-0 after the Cowboys had scored their last point. And we haven’t even talked about the 56-35 win at home in 2004 where the Longhorns were down at one time 35-7. Add that one in, and the Longhorns outscore them 159-0.

So what does this trip down memory lane tell us? Weird things happen in Stillwater. We’re used to hearing that about Lubbock, and plenty weird happens there too, but there is no way, no how that the Longhorns can take this game lightly. Win this one, and the schedule is arguably challenge-free on their way to Pasadena.

And make no mistake this Oklahoma State team is more talented than any other OSU team that we have played with the possible exception of the 2007 squad. Where are they if they don’t have the unlucky interception returned for a touchdown against Houston? They’re probably Top 5 in the country and this game is already hyped more than it is.
But, and we have to mention this, this is Oklahoma State we’re talking about here. This isn’t Texas Tech, where Mike Leach has beaten Mack Brown twice and Bob Stoops twice as well. Mike Gundy is 0-8 against Stoops and Brown at Oklahoma State and are still looking for their signature win there in their annual Biggest Game in the History of Oklahoma State.

It could come on Saturday, but as we’ve seen before, when the chips are down, the good teams rise to the top while the untested falter. Oklahoma State seems pre-occupied this week with talk of BLACK-OUTS and what uniforms to wear and selling out Boone Pickens Stadium for the first time since it has been remodeled (by the way, why is that???).

But Oklahoma State shouldn’t need that false motivation to beat Texas. They’re better than that. Or maybe they know they’re not.

Win on Saturday, and the Longhorns are overwhelming favorites to return to Pasadena in the first week in January. Lose, and well, it is going to take an Oklahoma State-like comeback to get there.

FACEBOOK NEWSFEED

Nebraska Football hosted the event Christmas in October.

Iowa State Football attended the event Christmas in October.

Tim Tebow attended the event Christmas in October and I Can’t Handle Failure.

Notre Dame is pissing everyone off with this luck of the Irish thing.

Idaho was hoping nobody realized we gave up 70 to Nevada.

Leigh Tiffin is wondering where he is in the Heisman polls.

Texas State is wondering why everyone finds it difficult to score on TCU.

On to the games...

Indiana @ Iowa -17.5:

If you would have told me before the season that I would be writing about Indiana/Iowa on Halloween weekend I would have asked you what happened to the other 118 teams. But it is what it is…

And what it is is that Iowa is missing starting running back Adam Robinson and offensive lineman Dace Richardson for the season after injuries during Saturday’s game at Michigan State. Of course we’re talking about a rushing offense that is ranked 91st in the country, so perhaps it isn’t a huge loss.

There is a question how good Iowa actually is. The computers love them, but they also let you go to a porn site if you’re one letter off your grandmother’s sewing website, so how smart are they? Iowa has the obvious edge here, but expect a bit of a let down after three straight emotional games, the last two being of the come from behind variety.

Iowa 24 Indiana 13
ATS – Indiana
SU – Iowa

Georgia v. Florida -15:

This is a game that Georgia coach Mark Richt needs. The Bulldogs are 4-3, and a victory over the defending champion Gators (again) would do a lot to quiet down any whispers about his job security in Athens.

The problem is that Florida has absolutely owned Georgia in recent times. Georgia is 3-16 against Florida since Steve Spurrier arrived in 1990, with Richt responsible for 6 of those losses.

Florida destroyed Georgia 49-10 last year, but Georgia actually outgained Florida 398-373, but turned the ball over four times. But last year is last year, and Florida has shown to be atrocious at throwing the football, and the problems on Georgia’s defense are in the passing game. Their rush defense is actually respectable.

Florida wins, but like most of their games lately, it is closer than most think.

Florida 31 Georgia 17
ATS – Georgia
SU – Florida

USC -3 @ Oregon:

This one is going to be a barnburner. Somehow Oregon is winning without anything from the quarterback position. Jeremiah Masoli has not thrown for 1,000 yards and has only rushed for 272 yards. They’re doing it behind a running game that averages 210 yards per game and a defense that is only giving up 297 yards a game.

For USC, don’t expect Matt Barkley to be intimidated by a raucous Autzen Stadium crowd. Barkley has already won at the Horseshoe in Columbus, at Berkeley and in South Bend this year. His stats aren’t great, but they are very solid, good enough for 17th in the country in passing efficiency.

The Ducks have faced one defense this year that ranks in the Top 20 in total defense, and that was Boise State. The Ducks only managed 152 total offense that day, and if any of you think that Boise State’s defense is better than USC’s, raise your hand. USC ranks 5th in the country in rushing defense and get after the quarterback, ranking 1st in the country in sacks and 2nd in the country in tackles for a loss.

USC has had their conference loss this year. It isn’t happening again. Oregon has benefited from a weak schedule, and won’t be prepared.

USC 31 Oregon 14
ATS – USC
SU – USC

Iowa State @ Texas A&M -7:

Both teams are coming off landmark wins. I’m still trying to figure out how Iowa State didn’t score more than 9 points when Nebraska turned the ball over 8 times, but whatever, they won, good for them. Texas A&M, meanwhile, steamrolled Texas Tech.

The Aggies will continue their show here. Iowa State has a weak defense, and have injury concerns at the quarterback and running back position.

Texas A&M 38 Iowa State 17
ATS – Texas A&M
SU –Texas A&M

Kansas State @ Oklahoma -28:

This is a tough one. Oklahoma definitely benefited from three Kansas turnovers last week, making the score a little more lopsided than it probably should have been. The Sooners struggled running the ball, and they’re still not sure whether or not Demarco Murray will be able to play.

KSU QB Grant Gregory has won every game he has started this year, but Oklahoma is a different animal with their 27 game home win streak. The Sooners win here, but Stoops takes it easy on his former boss Bill Snyder.

Oklahoma 34 Kansas State 10
ATS – Kansas State
SU – Oklahoma

Texas -9 @ Oklahoma State:

First, it is important who is out for Oklahoma State. WR Dez Bryant has been ruled ineligible by the NCAA for meeting with Deion Sanders and then lying about it, and RB Kendall Hunter is going to be limited this week (if you believe Mike Gundy). Hunter ran for 161 yards and had 192 yards of total offense last year against the Longhorns, so if he can’t go that is huge, while Bryant is a dynamic player who can break open the game on one play.

That isn’t to say that Oklahoma State doesn’t have solid guys that back them up. WR Hubert Anyiam, Bryant’s replacement as go-to receiver, has 19 receptions in the last two games. RB Keith Tolston has rushed for 326 yards in the three games since replacing Hunter.

But what Oklahoma State is missing this year, partially due to the loss of Bryant and Hunter, is the lack of playmaking ability on offense. In the last three games, the Cowboys have only two plays of 40 yards or longer, and those were both against Texas A&M. The longest run since Hunter went out? A 24 yard Tolston scramble against Baylor last week. The longest play from scrimmage this year for OSU is a 69 yard run against Grambling.

Compare those numbers to the 2007 game against Texas in Stillwater, where the Cowboys had two 26 yard receptions, a 28 yarder, a 40 yarder and a 44 yarder all in one game.

And, as we are all well aware, the 2009 Texas defense is light years ahead of the 2007 Texas defense. Texas has given up exactly two plays longer than 35 yards this year, a 75 yard pass for a touchdown against Louisiana-Monroe and a 64 yard screen pass to Demarco Murray against Oklahoma.

Can Oklahoma State nickel and dime their way down the field against Texas? Certainly. But I wouldn’t bet on it. In the last five games, the Longhorns have only allowed three third down conversions in the second half. The opposing team has only crossed the 50 yard line 3 times out of 28 possessions in the last four games.

And if you are worried about Oklahoma State starting strong (and what Texas fan wouldn’t be after the last three trips up there), the Cowboys have only scored 45 points in the first quarter this year in seven games. In comparison, a Texas offense that everyone thinks has stunk in the first quarter of games has scored 71.

The key, as always, will be the Longhorns getting pressure on QB Zac Robinson, who has been sketchy in big games. The Longhorns have knocked the quarterback out in three straight games (Gabbert for Missouri and Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford to injury, Colorado’s Cody Hawkins to ineffectiveness), so they’ll be gunning for Robinson, but Oklahoma State has only allowed four sacks all season. Temper your enthusiasm with that stat by keeping in mind that they have faced only one team with a dominating pass rush (Texas A&M is ranked 11th in the country in sacks), and the highest rated team in sacks after that is Georgia at 53rd.

So we’ve established that the Cowboys will be hard-pressed to move the ball on the Longhorns consistently, what will the Longhorns’ offense do?

Texas had an offensive breakthrough against Missouri last week, racking up 21 first quarter points and looking perhaps for the first time this year like the offense that we all expected to see coming into the year.

The turnaround was a direct result of a game plan implemented by Greg Davis. Davis estimated this week that of the 77 snaps that the Longhorn offense had on Saturday, about 60 featured the “11 package”, which has one tight end, one running back and three receivers. Malcolm Williams and Marquise Goodwin got their first start of the season, and Jordan Shipley was used mostly in the slot. The receivers were better, the run blocking was better and the pass protection was better.

OSU’s defense is about the same as it was last year. They are giving up about 16 yards more this year than they were giving up last year, but they are still only giving up 20 ppg this year, good for 36th in the country. But their pass defense has been terrible, giving up 253 yards passing a game, including 366 yards to Houston, 301 yards to Rice, 273 yards to Texas A&M, 325 to Missouri and 241 yards to Baylor.

Part of the reason for that is that they have had trouble getting to the quarterback, only registering two sacks in the past two games facing predominantly passing teams Baylor and Missouri. The Cowboys will have to be better in this game, because while Colt McCoy was beaten and bruised against Oklahoma, Texas coaches estimate that he only hit the turf four times against Missouri. Give him time and he’ll torch you, as Oklahoma State found out last year when they gave up 391 yards passing.

So how does Oklahoma State defend Texas? OSU defensive coordinator Bill Young is known as an aggressor, but the Cowboys are only blitzing 27% of the time this year, and Young has said that he prefers not to disguise coverages like Oklahoma did because he doesn’t like to confuse his own defense. So while OSU will probably mix in a few more blitzes than Missouri did, look for OSU to try to make Texas beat them through the short passing game and running the football.

OSU used the same defense against Missouri, and while Missouri had 300 yards of offense in the first half, they quickly wore themselves down and started to make mistakes, dropping passes and throwing interceptions. OSU will likely hope Texas will do the same.

While Oklahoma State is worried about selling tickets and black-outs and what color uniforms they will wear, Texas is worried about preparing to win a national championship. That tells you the difference in the two programs, and will be why Texas rolls to a victory in Stillwater on Saturday. The offense will continue their roll from Missouri, with the running game enjoying a very nice game and the defense continuing their dominating run.

Texas 31 Oklahoma State 16
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

Image

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Tums (just in case).

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Six NBA Predictions - 2009 Edition (Obvious Non-Football Post)

This is a football blog and I intend to keep it that way, but if I'm going to run ESPN8 with Bill Simmons one day I need to get this out there...we'll be back to football tomorrow.




This is the fourth edition in this series. Last year I hit on my completely out of nowhere, only analyst in America pick of the Los Angeles Lakers to win the NBA title*, so let's hope for the same success this year.

* completely fabricated

1.) The Los Angeles Lakers will win the Western Conference Title. They won the title easily last year, and added Ron Artest, what could go wrong? Unless Ron Artest murders Kobe Bryant, which I've heard the LM Hotel and Casino has at 75-1 odds this year? Or Khloe Kardashian writes a tell-all memoir about her 3 month marriage to Lamar Odom which sinks the Lakers after the All-Star break (85-1)? The Lakers didn't add anyone else, but Jordan Farmar continues to improve, Derek Fisher never ages, and Andrew Bynum is bound to hit is full potential one of these years.

2.) The Cleveland Cavaliers will win the Eastern Conference. The Cavs swept through the first two rounds of the playoffs last year (4 months ago), ring sizes were being taken and Laura Miller had the parade route drawn up, and then the Cavs forgot to win 4 games against Orlando. So the Cavs responded by going out and acquiring Shaquille O'Neal, completely forgetting that this is 2009 and not 1999, but Shaq should be able to provide a nice punch like he did for Phoenix at times last year, and will step in when the annual foot breakage of Zydrunas Ilgauskas occurs.

3.) LeBron James wins the MVP Award. I know I'm really going out on a limb with these predictions, but sometimes you have to live on the edge. LeBron has to be pissed about how last year ended, so he's going to wreck shop this year. Kobe might challenge him for it, but then again Kobe might be in a chalk outline sometime in January.

4.) Kevin Durant and the OKC Thunder make the playoffs.

Western Conference

1. Los Angeles: Easy street until June
2. San Antonio: Blair might have been a bigger pick-up than Jefferson
3. Denver: If they stay out of jail.
4. Dallas: Kidd and Marion should provide some dunks not seen in Dallas since Spud Webb in the All-Star game, but let's hope nobody breaks a hip.
5. Portland: Andre Miller already bitching, but this is the year Brandon Roy goes from really good to superstar
6. New Orleans: Chandler for Okafor is a trade your fantasy buddies would laugh at you about for the next 4 years
7. Utah: They keep trying to trade their best player Boozer, will probably trade him to the Lakers for Ron Artest's expiring jail sentence.
8. Oklahoma City: Might be too soon to put them here, but you need to take some risks in life.

Eastern Conference

1. Cleveland: With LeBron and Shaq, the Cavs should lead the league in antics.
2. Boston: Adding Rasheed Wallace was a great move, if this is 2004. If not, the Celtics will have to start games at 2:00 to beat the rush to Luby's.
3. Orlando: I hate letting Turkoglu go, Vince Carter is trash, and they're paying $34 million to a back-up center. Other than that, I love them.
4. Chicago: Just to piss Ben off. And Derek Rose should start for the Eastern Conference at PG this year.
5. Atlanta: Enough talent to contend for the division, just need to put it together at some point.
6. Miami: Dwyane Wade takes this team on his shoulders, and then leaves the court on a wheelchair when those shoulders start hurting.
7. Philadelphia: The old uniforms are back, hopefully Elton Brand is as well.
8. Charlotte: The year of DJ Augustin. Maybe.

5.) Tyreke Evans wins the Rookie of the Year. The rookie has been the rage of training camp in Sacramento, but that could be because the Kings have little else and there is nothing to do in Sacramento. But the Kings will average at least 90 ppg this year, and somebody has to score when Kevin Martin does not.

6.) The Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA title. If Kobe lives until June.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Texas 41 Missouri 7

Whew.

Tell me that didn't feel good. 

I got less and less worried about the game as the week went on last week, but if the Horns had started slow, had let the crowd stay in the game and Missouri gets a break or two, then you're looking at a dogfight.  Instead, the Horns came out, took care of business quickly and efficiently, and we could all breathe easy by the end of the first quarter.

Colt was 2008 Colt, as was Jordan Shipley, and when those two are on, the Longhorns are going to win the ballgame, especially with the defense that Will Muschamp has assembled.

But....things were going swimmingly last season, too, coming off a huge victory over Oklahoma and Missouri, and the Horns had to go on the road to a hostile location and things did not go well.  This week the Longhorns travel to Stillwater to play Oklahoma State, and while the Cowboys don't look quite as formidable as they did coming into the season, they're still a very dangerous squad, and the Horns will need to be on task to win the game.

We'll be back on Wednesday to take a look at that one, as well as USC/Oregon, Georgia/Florida and much more....

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

The Week That Will Be (10.24.09)


Last Week: 5-1 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 18-23-1 (.439) ($730) ATS 28-14 (.667) SU


What we learned last week:

We learned that Alabama can pass for 92 yards, turn the ball over 4 times, commit 10 penalties for 113 yards, get a defensive touchdown and it is classified as a “gritty” win and move up in the polls. Love your double standards, voters.

We learned that Georgia Tech can complete one pass all night and still win a football game over a team that was considered to be a national championship contender. Gotta love college football this year.

We learned that sometimes you have to steal lines from the Internet. “Charlie Weis now has 2 moral victories to 3 losses in his career to USC.”

We learned that Blaine Gabbert has turned into Cody Hawkins. Yes, he’s injured, but get out of the game if you can’t do any better than 5 interceptions in 5 quarters. Earl Thomas and Aaron Williams are licking their chops….

We learned that Texas Tech can get 259 yards of total offense and still beat Nebraska in Lincoln by 21 points. What the hell? Credit Tech’s improving rush defense for the win, they held Nebraska to 70 yards on 30 carries….

And finally, we learned that at this point Earl Thomas and Aaron Williams are closer to winning the Heisman Trophy than Colt McCoy, but the Longhorns are 6-0 with a win over Oklahoma and in control of their own destiny in the Big 12 and the national picture, and I’ll take that any season.

Anyhow…

It was September of 1963.

Donald Draper, a New York advertising executive, husband and father of three, had a wandering eye, and that eye had found his daughter’s teacher, Miss Farrell. One night in post-coital bliss, she tells Don about a question a student had asked her recently:

“How do I know if the color blue is the same blue that you see?”

I am of course speaking of the AMC television show Mad Men, a television drama about Draper, the ad man from New York, and his suburban family and their lives growing up in the transition from the conservative 1950’s to the care-free 1960’s.
What seemed to be a throwaway line from Miss Farrell raises a good point. What if the color blue that I see isn’t the color blue that you see? What if these Texas Longhorns aren’t the Texas Longhorns you see?

We heard ad nauseum this off-season about how this season compared to the 2005 team’s title run. They ended the previous season with a monumental win over a Big 10 power in a BCS bowl. The favorite that season was a seemingly unbeatable team led by the Heisman Trophy winner from the previous year. The 2010 National Championship game is held at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, the same site of the 2006 championship game. The favorite coming in beat Oklahoma in the prior national championship game. We had the same conference schedule this year that we had that year.

But what if the color blue is actually the 1963 national championship team?

In 1963, thousands of miles away from the fictional Don Draper, the Longhorns were led onto the field by a sophomore linebacker from San Antonio, Tommy Nobis. Nobis went on to be a two-time All-American, made the All-Conference team three times, won the Knute Rockne award, the Outland Trophy, the Maxwell Award and finished 7th in the Heisman Trophy balloting his senior year.

The hallmark of that 1963 team? Defense.

“We didn’t just kill anybody in 1963 if you look at the scores. We had a great defense and hadn’t shown much on offense,” said David McWilliams, an offensive lineman on that team, and the future head coach at Texas.

The 52.6 completion percentage in Saturday’s game against Oklahoma was Colt McCoy’s worst since October 2007, and the 16 points and 256 yards the Longhorns gained were the worst since 2006.

The Longhorns won that game with defense, led by the efforts of sophomore safety Earl Thomas, and by sophomore cornerback Aaron Williams, who might have had the best interception I have ever seen. The fruits of two years in a Will Muschamp system are beginning to pay off in a big way.

So who are these Longhorns. This is a game they lose in 2000. In 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. 2007. Because those teams didn’t have the defensive swagger that this team has.

That 1963 team entered the season ranked fifth in the country and then beat Texas Tech early in the season. They then went on to beat Oklahoma 28-7, went on the road to beat Arkansas 17-13 and beat Texas A&M 15-13. They failed to score more than 17 points in 6 conference games and needed a miracle interception by Don Carlisle to beat Baylor.
But the defense that year was relentless. They only gave up 72 points in 11 games, holding Baylor and TCU scoreless late in the season. The most points they gave up that season? 13 points to Arkansas and A&M.

The Longhorns entered the Cotton Bowl having already secured the AP National Championship, which rewarded their national title before the bowl games, but the Longhorns still had national championship hopes to hold on to from other publications.

Their opponent? #2 Navy. Led by a young quarterback named Roger Staubach.

Heisman trophy winning Roger Staubach.

The Longhorns were a big underdog that day.

“The papers said we were up there,” McWilliams said, “but there was no way we could keep up with Staubach.”

Before the game, the usually quiet Darrell Royal entered the locker room and offered up one simple phrase…

“We’re ready.”

Were they ever. The Longhorn defense pummeled Staubach that day and the Longhorns were up 21-0 before the half. Staubach was held to -47 yards rushing and the Longhorns cruised to their first national title, 28-6.

Later in that episode of Mad Men, Don Draper is recognized as a leader in the advertising industry, receiving an award during the time that the company is for sale, his wife is unhappy with his philandering ways (and the fact that she found out this episode that he was married before…long story) and his mistress appears to be on the verge of going from casual fling to crazed stalker.

You get the impression that the writers want you to see Draper at the apex before the world comes crashing down around him, in his work life, in his home life, and with the John F. Kennedy assassination looming, the nation crumbling around him as well.

The Longhorns have nearly reached the height of the apex they reached last year before everything came tumbling down. They need to get better on offense, for sure, but this defense is good enough to win a national title, and any offense that they can get is an added bonus.

And on Thanksgiving night, the Longhorns hope to step onto the field in College Station to end the regular season, needing a victory to preserve their first undefeated regular season since 2005, with an opportunity to win the Big 12 and the national title in the coming weeks.

But that night will be special in more than one way.

The Longhorns will honor longtime head coach Darrell Royal by wearing replica uniforms from the 1963 National Championship team.

Enjoy the world as it is. They change it, and they never give you a reason. – Mad Men

FACEBOOK NEWS FEED

Bennett Salvatore[b] has joined the group [b]SEC Football Officials.

The Wild Horn Sam Bradford coming back to OU and The Balloon Boy have joined the group Worst Ideas of the 21st Century.

The Texas Offense and Opportunism are no longer in a relationship.

Iowa can’t wait to get their ass beat by USC in the Rose Bowl.

Mike Sherman is worried about his upcoming job evaluation.

Jim Tressell needs some 50 Cent on his iPod, apparently.

On to the games...

Tennessee @ Alabama -14.5:

Tennessee was off last week, coming off a very satisfying 45-19 thumping of Georgia, while Alabama had a dogfight in Tuscaloosa with South Carolina before pulling away late.

The Volunteers should be well rested, but will it matter? Alabama has won two straight in this series by a sizable margin, and held the Volunteers to just 173 total yards last year.

Tennessee’s defense will keep them in this game for a while, especially with Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy struggling lately (he has looked very pedestrian against Virginia Tech, Kentucky, Mississippi and South Carolina, all ranked in the Top 17 in pass defense), but the Alabama defense is better, and McElroy won’t kill your team like Tennessee QB Jonathan Crompton.

Alabama 27 Tennessee 17
ATS – Tennessee
SU – Alabama

TCU -2.5 @ BYU:

ESPN’s Gameday is in Provo for this one, and it is legit. #8 TCU against #16 BYU, with a Mountain West conference title on the line and a BCS Bowl opportunity on the line for the Horned Frogs. How do they handle being the hunted instead of the hunter?

TCU beat BYU 32-7 last year, ending BYU’s 16 game winning streak, and they did it with the running game, outrushing the Cougars 240-23 yards. BYU QB Max Hall had an underwhelming performance, barely completing half of his passes and throwing 2 interceptions.

This one is in Provo, but give me the Horned Frogs. Andy Dalton has been outstanding at quarterback, and BYU simply does not pressure the quarterback. Dalton will have time to exploit it, quiet the crowd, and the TCU defense will hold their own.

TCU 28 BYU 24
ATS – TCU
SU – TCU

Florida -23 @ Mississippi State:

Somehow, Florida hasn’t won in Starkville since 1985, with 4 straight losses in that time. The Gators have struggled in recent weeks, while Mississippi State has lost 3 out of 4.

The only way that Mississippi State has a chance in this game is if they can run the ball, something they have had success with this year. They ran for 209 yards against Georgia Tech, 151 yards on LSU and 167 yards on Auburn earlier this year.

Something else that the Bulldogs have going for them? New head coach Dan Mullen was the Florida offensive coordinator for the past 4 years and was with Urban Meyer at Utah and Bowling Green as well. He knows Meyer, and he knows Tim Tebow. After a rough, physical game last week, and with rival Georgia on deck, this looks like another trap game.

Florida 28 Mississippi State 14
ATS – Mississippi State
SU – Florida

Texas A&M @ Texas Tech -21.5:

Don’t you love a good rivalry game? Texas A&M fans have quieted on the notion that they aren’t rivals with Tech, and with good reason as Tech has won 8 of the last 10 in this series, including 4 in a row.

Roe vs. Wade allowed what happened in Manhattan last week, as the Aggies simply gave up and lost to a very mediocre to bad Kansas State team by 48 points, oh yeah, the same Kansas State team that Tech beat by 52 the week before.

A night game in Lubbock, where Tech is looking for momentum going into the second half of the season, where the students are hungry for a win over a big rival and where one of the teams has obviously given up.

Recipe for disaster. I only wish it were on TV.

Texas Tech 51 Texas A&M 21
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Texas Tech

Oklahoma -7.5 @ Kansas:

The question here is whether or not the Kansas offense score some points on a very good Oklahoma defense. Yes, KU lost to Colorado last week, but Todd Reesing still threw for 401 yards, they just weren’t able to run the ball (at all) and gave Colorado a short field too many times. Their offensive production is up from this point last year, but they have yet to face a defense anywhere near the caliber of Oklahoma’s.

Kansas was able to put up 491 yards on Oklahoma last year, but this OU defense appears to be better, and Kansas hasn’t played anyone near the caliber of what they will face on Saturday.

Oklahoma 28 Kansas 17
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Texas -13.5 @ Missouri:

We all remember the game last year, where Texas jumped out to a 35-3 halftime lead in which Mack Brown this week called the most dominating half of football he’s had here. The Longhorns racked up 591 total yards of offense that night, completed 30/33 passes and converted 10 of 12 third down conversions.

Missouri’s scoring average is down to 29.3 ppg this year, down from 42.2 last year. Last year at this time they were 42nd in the nation in rushing offense, 3rd in passing offense, 3rd in total offense and 3rd in scoring offense. This year they are 91st, 14th, 40th and 45th in those respective categories.

Their defense is improved, however. Last year at this time they ranked 82nd in the country in total defense and 113th in pass defense. This year they rank 45th and 48th. They held an Oklahoma State team averaging 413 yards per game to 351 total yards. They held a Nebraska team averaging 384 yards per game to 263 yards. They held a Nevada team that is averaging 479 yards per game to 364 yards. So don’t expect the same ol’ Missouri that scores a bunch of points but gives up plenty as well.

Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert has an ongoing ankle issue. He might be in trouble Saturday night against a Texas defense that A.) isn’t allowing anyone to run on them this season; B.) is forcing teams into 3rd and longs; and C.) can bring the house when a team is in third and long. Bad Ankle + Team knowing you have to pass = bad news

Missouri started with what was thought to be at the time an impressive 37-9 win over Illinois, but unfortunately Illinois has collapsed faster than Jim Zorn’s approval rating in Washington. They have only scored 29 points total in their last two games after scoring less than 29 points in only two games last year (against Oklahoma State and Oklahoma).

But the Longhorns are different, too. Brandon Collins and Quan Cosby are not on this team, and they combined for 13 catches for 150 yards against this team last year. It is time for another receiver (or two) to step up into that void. It appeared that Dan Buckner was going to be that guy earlier in the year, but he fell off, and John Chiles and James Kirkendoll are simply not getting the job done. Malcolm Williams and Marquise Goodwin get their first start of the year in an effort to jumpstart a surprisingly inefficient offense.

But the Texas defense has been ridiculous this year. Texas opponents are averaging .3 yards per carry over the last four games. Go read that again and think about how ridiculous that is. .3 yards. One foot. The length from your wrist to your elbow, Texas is giving that up per carry over four games against Texas Tech, UTEP, Colorado and Oklahoma. Will Muschamp’s defense has now given up only 32 rushing yards to Oklahoma in two years, at a clip of .667 yards per carry.

Texas needs to withstand the initial rush of excitement in Columbia. A night game in what is essentially their bowl game makes for a hostile environment, but come out early and hit them in the mouth and the crowd shuts up quickly.

Call me an idiot, but Texas has to cover sometime, right?

Texas 34 Missouri 17
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

Image

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for your Sam Bradford as Balloon Boy Halloween costume.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Texas 16 Oklahoma 13

It was by no means a pretty performance, but a win over Oklahoma is still a win over Oklahoma, and no fan that left the Cotton Bowl after those five straight losses should overlook that fact.

The offense needs plenty of work, and it all starts with Colt McCoy.  His Heisman chances took a big ding yesterday, with some of the media blaming sickness again.  Fine, you don't feel well, but at some point, the excuses have to stop and the production has to be begin.

Outside of some big plays in the passing game in the first quarter, the defense was outstanding, and is really beginning to emerge as one of the best units in the country.

The Longhorns are 6-0, #3 in the BCS (a de facto #2 behind the SEC), and will head to Missouri and Oklahoma State the next two weeks with the chance to put a stranglehold on the Big 12 South crown.  We'll be back on Wednesday to look at that game, and of course all of the others.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

The Week That Will Be (2009 TX/OU Edition)


Last Week: 3-3 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 13-22-1 (.371) ($1120) ATS 23-13 (.639) SU


What we learned last week:

We learned that Alabama QB Greg McElroy can complete less than half of his passes, not throw a ball longer than 15 yards, and not throw a touchdown pass, but Alabama can jump Texas in the AP Poll and catch them in the Harris. Let’s see if Alabama is held to the same standard if Texas beats Oklahoma, Missouri and Oklahoma State in the next three weeks while Alabama gets South Carolina, Tennessee and a bye week in the next three…

We learned that Rick Neuheisel is going to have a short stint at UCLA if he can’t find a quarterback. UCLA’s two quarterbacks combined for 145 yards passing on 35 attempts, a putrid 4.14 yards per attempt against Oregon last week. The Ducks have gone on quite a run since that season opening loss to Boise State, and their defense is a huge reason for that…

We learned that Urban Meyer risked Tim Tebow’s future health for 13 points against LSU. Congrats, Urban. The Gators now rank 78th in the country in passing offense, but we still hear Tebow, Tebow, Tebow for the Heisman. Barf…

We learned that Ndamukong Suh might single-handily bring back the Blackshirts to Nebraska. His performance against Missouri opened the eyes of the rest of the nation to a budding young defensive star….

We learned that Sam Bradford can give fiery half-time speeches and propel Oklahoma to….score 5 more points in the second half that they did in the first half. A home game against a Baylor team playing their third string quarterback making his first start in hostile territory was supposed to be the perfect return for Oklahoma’s Heisman trophy winner, and while he looked fine, something just seems amiss on the Oklahoma team, and it starts with the lack of playmakers on offense….

And finally, we learned the true meaning of the old football adage, “defense never takes days off.” The offense might have left for Dallas a week early, but the defense and special teams scored more than the Colorado offense, and the Longhorns are 5-0 and undefeated going into OU week once again….

Anyhow…

“Why those sorry bastards, I don’t trust ‘em on anything.”—Darrell Royal

It’s time.

Graham Harrell floats back in the pocket….has a receiver down field, it’s Crabtree. Got him! Touchdown Texas Tech! The Red Raiders take the lead with one second left on the clock….

The day we’ve all been waiting for…..

…and the Oklahoma Sooners beat the Texas Tech Red Raiders 65-21…

….for about 11 months now.

…and with that spin, Sam Bradford showed the heart and determination of this Oklahoma football team, as they beat Oklahoma State 61-41 and will be headed to the Big 12 Championship game in Kansas City, Missouri…

For they took what was ours…

….as they win yet another Big 12 Championship, beating the Missouri Tigers 62-21 and will likely be headed to Miami for the National Championship match-up with the Florida Gators…

….but make no mistake, it’s not revenge.

It’s a reckoning.

Twelve months and one week ago, the Longhorns left the Cotton Bowl with a Fletcher’s corn dog in one hand and destiny in the other. Unfortunately that all slipped away, but we enter the Cotton Bowl on Saturday not only looking for that reckoning, not only looking to control our own destiny yet again, not only looking to stay undefeated for a run at a national championship, but to once again get a leg up on Oklahoma.

First of all, I hope you all realize just how special this game is nowadays. Both of these coaches have a national championship this decade. Since Mack Brown arrived to the 40 Acres in 1998, Texas has won 120 games, the best in the nation. Oklahoma has won 117 in that time. Since Bob Stoops arrived in Norman in 1999, no other school in the Big 12 South has represented the South at the Big 12 Championship other than Texas or Oklahoma.

At least one of these teams is entering the game ranked in the Top 25 for the 11th straight year, and 61st time out of 73 possible games since the poll system started. This is the 33rd year that both teams enter ranked in the Top 25. As Barking Carnival pointed out this week, the Brown/Stoops coaching rivalry is in rarified air. Coaches leave, coaches get fired, coaches retire, but this rivalry lives on.

So we know what is at stake for this season, but what about long term? It can be argued that if Texas wins this game, and especially if they win it in convincing fashion, that Oklahoma will be viewed as a team with serious dents in their armor, and perhaps, a program on a downslide?

Now, don’t get me wrong. I in no way think that OU is a program in decline, a lot of programs would be very glad to have their recent problems. Texas was beginning to get that label when they couldn’t beat Oklahoma earlier this decade, and came out of it.

But success is very fickle in college football. It is very rare for two teams such as Texas and Oklahoma to enjoy success for as long as they have, especially in this era of reduced scholarships. Miami was on the top of the college football world in 2001, much like Oklahoma and Texas are now, but quickly fell off and even though they look better this year, they still got shell-shocked in Blacksburg, which showed they have a ways to go.

Nebraska was the model program (at least on the field) in the mid 90’s, but quickly hit the bottom when Tom Osborne left. Florida had a brief lull (also known as the Ron Zook era) when Steve Spurrier left. LSU won a national championship 2 years ago, but last year lost five games, and could very well lose close to that this year.

Oklahoma has lost five straight BCS bowl games, and three of those were in embarrassing fashion, getting blown out by USC in the 2005 Orange Bowl, losing to David to their Goliath Boise State in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl and getting blown out by West Virginia in the 2008 Fiesta Bowl. Not only that, but the Sooners have lost 3 out of 4 to Texas, and have a very mediocre, near .500 record outside the state of Oklahoma in the last few years.

If they lose this game, they will be 3-3, and for the first time since 2005 they will be .500 or less after six games, and for only the second time since 1998. Sam Bradford is likely to leave after this season. DeMarco Murray might follow suit and leave for the NFL. Trent Williams, their best offensive lineman, is a senior.

Nobody calls Bob Stoops “Big Game Bob” anymore. If anything, it is “Big Game Mack.” Texas is 17-3 in their last 20 games against ranked opponents. The Sooners? They are 0-3 in their last three against ranked opponents. They have gone 1-8 in their last 9 games against ranked non-conference opponents. Stoops is 4-8 in games decided by three points or less. Mack Brown? 17-3, including his last fourteen.

Saturday represents the opportunity for Mack Brown to finish out the decade with a 4-6 record against Oklahoma, which isn’t what we would have liked, but it is a lot better than what we thought it might be during the dark Octobers of the early 2000’s. But more importantly, it leaves Texas at 6-0, with an opportunity to control their own destiny with their toughest opponent behind them. To get where they thought they belonged a year ago, the national championship game.

A day of reckoning.

I can smell the corn dogs already.

FACEBOOK NEWS FEED

Deion Sanders is up in your clubhouse, getting your receivers suspended.

Bob Stoops says can’t Sergio Kindle go to Deion’s house on Friday?

Urban Meyer is watching Varsity Blues. Love Bud Kilmer.

Jonathan Crompton wrote on Cody Hawkins’s Wall: See, I told you I’m better than you.

Charlie Weis is staying up all night this week, sleeping in his office, trying to figure out how to score a touchdown this week against USC.

Major Applewhite is glad that nobody remembers he is the running backs coach.

On to the games...

South Carolina @ Alabama -17:

Which defense shows up for the Gamecocks this week? The one that held Georgia to 107 yards rushing and Mississippi to 139, or the one that allowed 207 to Kentucky last week? If the latter shows up, Mark Ingram will have a field day, and will start getting Heisman talk.

On offense, South Carolina will need Stephen Garcia to be perfect. Good luck with all of that. But, Alabama is likely due for a let-down game, and this might be a good spot with Tennessee on deck.

Alabama 27 South Carolina 13
ATS – South Carolina
SU – Alabama

Virginia Tech -3 @ Georgia Tech:

Virginia Tech won a close one last year, but the Yellowjackets were still able to run for 278 yards on that vaunted Hokie defense in Blacksburg. The two teams only combined for 157 yards passing.

Both Alabama and Nebraska ran for more than 200 yards on Virginia Tech, otherwise they have given up little on the ground this year. Georgia Tech is coming off a 400 yard rushing effort against Florida State last week.

Give me Georgia Tech in a mild upset.

Georgia Tech 21 Virginia Tech 17
ATS – Georgia Tech
SU – Georgia Tech

USC -10 @ Notre Dame:

This would be a monumental win for Charlie Weis, whose Irish are 1-18 since November 2006 against teams that finished with a winning record. Notre Dame is off to a hot start, but USC is a different animal, as none of the teams that the Irish have beaten this year have a winning record.

This one will likely come down to how well the Notre Dame defense does against the USC rushing attack. Contain them, and force Matt Barkley to beat you? Then Notre Dame has a shot at the upset. Let Joe McKnight get loose and hit a couple of big plays, then it could be another in a long series of disappointments for Weis.

I like USC here, but the spread seems a bit big for a USC team that is still going through growing pains with a quarterback.

USC 28 Notre Dame 23
ATS – Notre Dame
SU – USC

Missouri @ Oklahoma State -7:

This was the game last year where everyone started to believe that Oklahoma State might be for real, as the Cowboys prevailed 28-23 in Columbia, with 3 scoring plays of 31 yards or longer.

Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert should have been intercepted about 6 times last week, and I don’t think he’ll fare any better for an Oklahoma State team that is looking to get on a roll into the meat of their conference schedule.

Oklahoma State 34 Missouri 21
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Texas Tech @ Nebraska -10.5:

The match-up to watch here is the Tech defensive line against the Nebraska offensive line. Zac Lee struggled a bit when Virginia Tech’s defense got after him, and Tech is surprisingly ranked 12th in the country in sacks thus far this season. If the Cornhuskers can protect Lee, they can put up some points here.
Nebraska’s defense has only given up one passing touchdown all year, but Tech is a different animal. I like Nebraska to win here, but that spread is a bit big for a Mike Leach offense.

Nebraska 38 Texas Tech 31
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Nebraska

Oklahoma v. Texas -3.5:

And the one that really matters.

Texas has a chance to knock Oklahoma out of contention for anything but the Alamo Bowl here, while Oklahoma has a chance to ruin Texas’s shot at a national title, and put themselves in the driver’s seat for yet another Big 12 title.

As everyone knows, this is a game of streaks, and Texas has won 3 out of the last 4. For you real nerds out there, a 2 loss Oklahoma team has beaten an undefeated Texas team only once, in 1982.

WHEN OKLAHOMA HAS THE BALL

It all starts up front for the Sooners. An already banged-up offensive line must now go without LG Brian Simmons, meaning the Sooners will once again have to field a different five than they did the game before.

Expect right tackles Jarvis Jones and Corey Brandon to have a lot of trouble against Texas DE Sergio Kindle. The Sooner RTs have had a tremendous time against speed rushers on that side, and Kindle is probably the fastest one in the nation. And when Kindle gets to the quarterback, he delivers. Ask Taylor Potts.

Sam Bradford is back, and looked good last week outside of the red zone. The red zone has been a continuous problem for the Sooners this year. They kicked 3 field goals in the red zone against Baylor last week. At this time last year, the Sooners had scored 26 touchdowns on 27 trips to the red zone. This year they have only scored 15 touchdowns in 25 trips. If they expect to beat a team like Texas, field goals will not get the job done.

The playmaking of the Sooner offense lost a lot when Jermaine Gresham went down with an injury, and the Sooners have struggled to find a receiver besides Ryan Broyles that demands any sort of extra attention from the defense. Oklahoma is scoring 16 ppg less than they did last year.

Another problem for the Sooners has been the running game. The Sooners have rushed for 200 yards only once this season, and averaged less than 4 yards per carry in their big games against BYU and Miami. They don’t figure to get healthy against a Texas defense that ranks first in the nation against the rush.

So what’s going to happen when Oklahoma has the ball? Expect a Will Muschamp defense that is getting better by the game to confuse an Oklahoma offensive line that has struggled to make adjustments this year. BYU was able to use a delayed blitz that Oklahoma never picked up on, and Sam Bradford paid for it with an injury. I expect Sergio Kindle to put a lot of pressure on Bradford, for Oklahoma’s running game to be nullified, and if Broyles doesn’t play and isn’t effective, then it could be a long day for the Sooner offense.

WHEN TEXAS HAS THE BALL

There is a lot of hand wringing in Austin about the offense, but the fact of the matter is that the Longhorns have scored the exact same number of points through five games this year that they did last year, rank #1 in scoring offense, and rank #7 in total offense.

That isn’t to say there aren’t some problems on offense. The running game was an absolute abortion against Colorado last week, and even if the Longhorns had a vanilla gameplan, they should be able to beat Colorado off the ball on talent alone. Add to it that Vondrell McGee and Tre Newton are banged up and a veteran Sooner defensive line led by Gerald McCoy and the Longhorns’ chances of winning this game on the ground are questionable.

Of course we had doubts that Texas could run the ball last year, and the Longhorns ended up running for 161 yards on 35 carries, and we had the emergence of Chris Ogbonnaya. Speaking of last year…

Last year at this time, Colt McCoy had rushed the ball 59 times for 348 yards. This year? 34 rushes for 58 yards. So, in effect, with the loss of Quan Cosby to the NFL, the Longhorns have lost their leading receiver and leading rusher off of last year’s team.

The Longhorns must get McCoy more involved in the running game. Their offense was at the best last season when he was involved.

So if Texas can’t run the ball, can they pass their way to victory? In a word, yes. In two words, hell yes. Oklahoma gave up 329 yards in the air to BYU, 202 yards and 3 touchdowns to Miami and gave up 262 yards to Baylor last week. Oklahoma can get pressure on the quarterback, but as always, they are still giving up yards across the middle of the field, a place where Dan Buckner should be able to exploit at will against a linebacker in the base 4-3 that Oklahoma likes to run at all times.

So…if you are scoring at home, I see the game this way:

Oklahoma running the ball: Advantage Texas
Oklahoma passing the ball: Advantage Texas (if the Longhorns get a pass rush)
Texas running the ball: Advantage Oklahoma
Texas passing the ball: Advantage Texas

The Longhorns also have the advantage on special teams, where they are 11th in the country in punt returns and 1st in the country in kick-off returns (Oklahoma had a bad problem covering kicks last year), while Oklahoma ranks 15th in punt returns but only 92nd in kickoff returns.

So….

Here is what I see happening. I think Colt McCoy is finally given the leeway to run the ball in this one. Which opens things up downfield. Bradford will get a couple of opportunities, but I also see Sergio Kindle harassing him into possibly turning the ball over (Bradford has 2 interceptions in his two Texas games). I also think the Longhorns make a big play on special teams.

Texas wins their 4th game in 5 years, Mack Brown goes to 5-6 against Bob Stoops, and the Horns control their own destiny for Arlington and beyond.

Texas 28 Oklahoma 14
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

Image

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Fletcher’s corn dogs, beer in a wax cup and fried butter.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Texas 38 Colorado 14



Well it definitely wasn't a performance that the offense will point to and say that they played their best, but the defense and special teams (minus a blocked FG) were great, and Texas heads into the Oklahoma game undefeated for the 6th time in the Mack Brown era.

Jordan Shipley continues his ridiculous year, and should begin to get mentioned for the Heisman Trophy award.  He's been that good. 

Texas stays #2 in the country in the Coaches Poll, and is tied for #2 in the Harris poll.  The AP Poll has the 'Horns at #3, but the AP Poll is about as relevant as Wade Phillips' head coaching career.

There is a lot of teeth gnashing going on about the offense's performance this year, but we're still #7 in total offense, have the same amount of points as we had this time last year, and more importantly, we have the talent and the coaching staff that can get it done.

It is, of course, TX/OU Gameweek, which gives me a tingly feeling all over usually reserved for Victoria Secret commercials, and if you can focus and get some work done this week, you are better than most orangebloods. 

We'll be back on Wednesday to have a look at the TX/OU match-up, talk about any other games that matter this weekend, and much, much more....

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

The Week That Will Be (10.10.09)


Last Week: 4-2 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 10-19-1 (.345) ($1090) ATS 18-12 (.600) SU


What we learned last week:

We learned that according to Lou Holtz, Jimmy Clausen is the best quarterback in America, even though he has yet to beat a team with a winning record this year, and needed some help from the officials to beat Washington. How this guy earns a paycheck from “The Worldwide Leader in Sports” is beyond me. It would be akin to Barack Obama being named the head of the 2016 Chicago Olympics bid….

We learned that apparently the town leaders from Footloose are SEC officials, but Georgia has nobody to blame for that one but themselves. LSU gave up points in bunches last season, and gave up 23 to Washington and 26 to Mississippi State this year, two teams that won’t be confused for the New Orleans Saints anytime soon….

We learned that even the great Monte Kiffin can’t stop the Gus Malzahn offense. Auburn put up 459 yards on the Volunteers, but the schedule only gets tougher for Auburn. They still have games with LSU, Mississippi, Georgia and Alabama left on the slate….

We learned that once again that California is a fraud. We were willing to give them the benefit of the doubt after getting stomped in Oregon, but giving up 72 points and scoring 6 in the past two weeks against Pac-10 powers can’t be good for the long term prospects of Jeff Tedford. For such an offensive genius tag that he gets, Kevin Riley is no better of a quarterback than when he first stepped on campus…

We learned that speaking of frauds, we can go ahead and include Texas A&M in that category, as well. They made Arkansas look like a SEC power last week instead of the team that got walloped by Alabama the week before. Jerrod Johnson is good, but I think we can stop with the Heisman talk for now, and focus on beating an actual good team for now……

And finally we learned that Oklahoma has bigger problems than Sam Bradford being out of action. Landry Jones was very pedestrian on Saturday, but he threw for 62 yards on the first drive and then had 126 of the game. The coaches were conservative, the running game was ineffective at only 3.6 yards per carry and the defense intercepted Jacory Harris twice, but gave up 150 yards rushing to Javarris James and allowed Harris to throw for 3 touchdowns. This team used to have swagger, and it still does, but only against the Idaho States and Tulsas of the world. You can no longer go into a stadium and be up 14-0 just because your name is Oklahoma, Bob…

Anyhow…

This week Big 12 play begins in earnest, so let’s take a look at how the Big 12 is shaping up a month into the college football season, using the hierarchy of Big 12 quarterbacks to divide up the haves from the have nots…

The Cody Hawkins Division

Colorado: The Buffs enter Big 12 play at 1-3, with their best “win” a closer than expected loss at West Virginia last Thursday night. Cody Hawkins is completing 52.4% of his passes, which is good enough for 27th in the Big 12. Read that again. Yes, there are guys with 1 or 2 pass attempts included in those rankings, but at least those teams are smart enough not to have Hawkins throw the ball 52 times in a game, like Hawkins did last week at West Virginia. This is the worst case of nepotism since Fredo Corleone was given control of Las Vegas.

Iowa State: Just above Hawkins in the completion percentage rankings is Iowa State quarterback Austen Arnaud, who has completed 53% of his passes, and the sad part is doesn’t have his job because of daddy coaching the football team, rather he has it because Gene Chizik couldn’t recruit a quarterback who could hit a cornfield from the highway. And that got him the job at Auburn. Wait, what? Now they have a coach who can’t even spell “Rhodes” right, Paul Rhoades.

Kansas State: The Wildcats tried to bring the magic back by hiring Bill Snyder to coach the team, and what could go wrong, his name is on the stadium? Well the problem is he forgot to bring back Michael Bishop (who is probably available, now that I think about it), and the Wildcats lost to Louisiana-Lafayette earlier this year. They do hold impressive wins over Massachusetts and Tennessee Tech this year, which might help them in the Elo-Chess rankings, and by Elo-Chess I mean the actual game of chess, not football. K-State is another team at the bottom of the conference stuck with a bad quarterback, as Carson Coffman sounds like the name of a detective on a 1970’s cop show…look for Snyder to retire again very soon.

The Jerrod Johnson Division

Baylor: To be fair, the Bears would be higher if Robert Griffin wasn’t out for the year with a knee injury. We don’t have a really good feel for back-up quarterbacks Nick Florence or Blake Szymanski except that you have to look back and forth to make sure you have spelled SZYMANSKI correct every time you type it. SZYMANSKI (copy and paste) did throw for 400 yards three times in 2007, but unfortunately those three opponents were Colorado, Rice and Texas State, not exactly the teams they need to leapfrog in the Big 12. The Bears do have some talent on offense and their defense is improved, but their chance to move up the ladder in the Big 12 South was lost when Griffin was lost.

Texas A&M: Mike Sherman brought years of NFL experience to College Station, and then with one losing season he ditched all of that, consulted a high school coach on how to run his offense, and has now lost by 30 points to an average Arkansas team. Progress. Jerrod Johnson is nice, as are some other players on that team, but the defense is awful, Sherman inspires nobody, and fan apathy is high. The Aggies at some point need to start showing some progress, or Baylor will pass them very soon in the power rankings.

Texas Tech: Texas Tech was mired in controversy last week, struggled with New Mexico for a half, and things looked very dire when Taylor Potts left the game with a concussion, but Steven Sheffield saved the day and the Red Raiders cruised. Still, this has the feel of a disjointed team, with the locker room like an episode of Melrose Place, but unfortunately it is the new MP, not the old one. So much for the “BEST SEASON EVER.”

The Zac Lee Division

Missouri: Many expected Missouri to fall off the map after Chase Daniel took his booger eating to the NFL, but Blaine Gabbert stepped right in and picked (ahem) up right where he left off. Sure, they haven’t played anybody, but they’re still relevant, which is better than pre-Daniel territory.

Nebraska: This Nebraska team is on the rise, and unlike some recent teams that have done it all on offense, the Cornhuskers lead the nation in scoring defense, only giving up 28 points all season. Sure, their best opponent has been an up and down Virginia Tech team, but Bo Pelini seems to have things turned in the right direction up there. Now if he can just ditch the 1990’s sweatshirt that he likes to wear. Of course if you have been to Lincoln you understand that fashion sense isn’t high on the priority list. Nice town, great folks, but damn.

Kansas: The Jayhawks have a talented trio of Reesing, Briscoe and Meier, but unfortunately they don’t play defense, and Kansas can’t give up 28 points to Southern Miss and realistically expect to go anywhere this year. And is it me, or does Mangino get bigger every year? This guy could be a whole team on The Biggest Loser.

The Zac Robinson Division

Oklahoma State: The fall-off in production (the Cowboys are 29th in total offense this year; they were 4th in the country this time last year) is to be expected with the loss of….wait, OSU didn’t lose anybody. What the hell? The Cowboys are missing the explosive plays from last year, and yes, there have been some injuries, but things just don’t seem right up there, and the defense is giving up passing yards in bunches. This is one of those teams you still watch out for, but that trip to Stillwater on Halloween night looks a lot easier for Texas, especially if Dez Bryant is still suspended.

Oklahoma: Oklahoma, where the karma comes sweepin’ down the plain… We all remember 2008, where the Sooners ran it up on everyone when they got the chance and they got into the Big 12 championship game and the national championship game on a ridiculous Big 12 rule that somehow still exists to this day. Well, enter 2009, where Sam Bradford, Jermaine Gresham, Ryan Broyles, Juaquin Iglesias and Manuel Johnson are either out injured or graduated, and it is easy to see why the Sooners have struggled against every team not located in Pocatello, Idaho or a Tulsa team that is, well, Tulsa. The Sooners still have plenty of talent, but right now they are missing the playmakers and the swagger that great teams have, so this year they’ll have to settle for being a good team.

The Colt McCoy Division

Texas: It is pretty clear that Texas deserves its own division when you rank the Big 12 teams, they have performed that much better than the rest of the teams in the conference. For all of the nitpicking about the close game against Texas Tech and the slow start in Wyoming, the Longhorns still have a healthy margin of victory (Florida and Texas are 1 and 2 in margin of victory this year), and can still say they haven’t reached their potential. The running game is always in flux, but if they can find a consistent threat back there, watch out, this team could get the Big 12 title and much more.

FACEBOOK NEWS FEED

Bobby Bowden I’m about to turn 80, and my team is about #80 in the FBS power rankings. What a coincidence!

Turner Gill is wondering why he didn’t take another job and get the hell out of Buffalo while I had the chance.

Erin Andrews one creep down, 3,323,608,138 to go. Oh hell, I forgot about the lesbians and bis. I’m screwed.

Pete Carroll wrote on Mark Sanchez’s Wall: “I told you you shouldn’t have come out!”

Kenny Vaccaro You call THAT a FOUL?

Jesus has joined the group “Tim Tebow Fan Club.”

Tate Forcier I’m not the next Tim Tebow….yet.
Houston is ah, hell, keep the helmets. It isn’t like we tackle anyone anyways.

Mike Price let’s celebrate! We’re going to Juarez and taking the UTEP credit card with us!

On to the games...

Alabama -5.5 @ Mississippi:

This is Jevan Snead’s chance at redemption in the minds of college football fans and more importantly NFL scouts, but the fact is he isn’t having a great year, and will have to have his best game to beat Alabama. Not a good match-up for a struggling quarterback.

Alabama is due for a letdown game, but this won’t be it. This has been an insanely close series, with the last 4 games being decided by 13 points, but the Tide roll.

Alabama 28 Mississippi 21
ATS – Alabama
SU – Alabama

Oregon -3.5 @ UCLA:

It doesn’t look like Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli will be able to play this week, leaving Oregon about even with UCLA, who doesn’t have a quarterback worth a damn on its roster.

I could be going out on a limb here, but this game looks like a trap to me. Oregon has rolled ever since the Boise State game, but that was also their last road game. Give me the Bruins in a close one.

UCLA 24 Oregon 21
ATS – UCLA
SU – UCLA

Florida -7.5 @ LSU:

Will he or won’t he? The question around Gainesville this week isn’t whether Tim Tebow can split the Red Sea, but whether he will play this week against LSU.

It looks like a tough match-up either way for the Gators, who haven’t been road tested much lately, unless you count a trip to Kentucky as scary.

This one hinges on two things. 1.) Can LSU stop Florida’s rushing attack? The Gators rank #1 in the country in rushing, but LSU only gave up 45 yards rushing to Georgia last week; and 2.) Is Jordan Jefferson good enough to beat Florida? Jefferson doesn’t have to be JaMarcus Russell, but he needs to be a difference maker in order to beat a team like Florida.

Tebow or not, this one should be a good one in Death Valley at night, but I don’t have the confidence in Jefferson to say he can beat Florida just yet.

Florida 27 LSU 24
ATS – LSU
SU – Florida

Nebraska -3.5 @ Missouri:

Nebraska is the tested team here. They damn near beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, a feat that not many have done this decade. Missouri, meanwhile, looked impressive in beating Illinois to start the year, but they folded so we’re really not sure how good Missouri is after they beat up on the little sisters of the poor in Bowling Green, Furman and Nevada.

I hate to go against the home underdog on Thursday, but I think this Nebraska team is better than Mizzou, and will show it here.

Nebraska 31 Missouri 21
ATS – Nebraska
SU – Nebraska

Baylor @ Oklahoma -25.5:

This one was looking a little sexy a couple of weeks ago when it looked like it was going to be Landry Jones vs. Robert Griffin. But Griffin is now out for the year, Bradford might play, and Baylor is back to being Baylor.

Oklahoma 45 Baylor 17
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Colorado @ Texas -32.5:

This one will be a tune-up for the Texas defense, which will see a “downhill” running game for the first time this year and will help prepare for the Oklahoma and Oklahoma State games later this month.

Unfortunately for Colorado, they will also get run out of the house. This has the potential to be 2005 Big 12 CG ugly.
Texas 52 Colorado 10
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

Image

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Dillo Dirt to throw at OU fans.