Wednesday, September 22, 2010

The Week That Will Be (09.25.2010)

Last Week: 3-2-1 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 8-7-3 (.533) ($10) ATS 15-3 (.833) SU


What we learned last week:

We learned that John Brantley is no Tim Tebow, and he’s also no Doug Johnson or Ingle Martin, as the youngster is doing enough to get by, but that won’t be enough when they travel to Tuscaloosa next Saturday night…

We learned that Texas fans had better start the Mark Richt Fan Club because things could get ugly in Athens this season…

We learned that Nick Foles belongs in the talk of upper echelon quarterbacks this year, and that Arizona can save me from a bad afternoon in the sports book…

We learned that you never, never bet on Baylor, and we also learned that if Andy Dalton has to say that TCU came out “with a lot of emotion” and wanted to beat “an in-state rival”, then that tells you all you need to know about TCU’s college football identity…

We learned that Boyz II Men must have a hit record out because Nebraska is running for 383 yards and has a stout defense again…

And finally, we learned that a 22 play drive is possible, that Neal Brown is no Mike Leach and that you never feel bad about a win in Lubbock.

Anyhow…

My family was in town. It is still the only game my dad has ever seen in that stadium. I remember watching my 60 year old aunt climb the stairs to the next to last row of the upper deck and thinking that she couldn’t feel any worse than I do on this day.

All the hopes, all the dreams? All I could hope for is a cool breeze and all I could dream of were the Ranchiladas from On the Border after the game.

Not only could an outsider question my choice of Tex Mex, they could question my sanity about following a football team as bad as this one.

When my family looked at me with sweat dripping off their brows after a Skip Hicks two yard run made it 52-3, I shrugged my shoulders and betrayed the memory of fighters of the Alamo and said, “Let’s go.”

Who knows what I would have written about if I did this column back in the late summer of 1997. I might have written about building upon the miracle in St. Louis by leaning on quarterback James Brown and running back Ricky Williams, and riding them to another South Division title. I might have written about how John Mackovic’s 4th and 1 call the year before might have turned a corner in the annals of Texas football, about how this was the year that we will build upon with Casey Hampton and Quentin Jammer ruling the defensive side of the ball.

I might have written about how Penn State was bound to fall from #1 with a 70 year old coach, and about how Steve Spurrier could never win the big one at Florida, so the opportunity was there to take the next step.

But in no way did I see what was to happen next, that the best thing to come out of the whole ordeal was that Marty Cherry would get a modeling contract.

As I walked down the ramps of Royal-Memorial Stadium, the Sons of Westwood ringing in my ears, I might have even talked myself into believing that this was a fluke, and that this team would gather their pride and finish the season out in fine fashion and go get that national championship in ’98.

Yeah, that 38-31 win over Rice the next week lacked fire, but we rallied from a 14-0 deficit, dammit. Then a 42-16 loss in Stillwater. Then a 27-24 win in Dallas over OU…you know, if we can beat Missouri next week…

They tore down the goalposts. As did Baylor two weeks later.

The only place Texas football was popular that year was the opposing locker room, field goal posts manufacturing facilities and airplane banner companies that flew the infamous “Flush the John, Dump Deloss” banners across game locales.

Mackovic was put on the important task of golf course designing and in came a brown haired fellow from tobacco road that couldn’t win the big game and had zero pressure at a school obsessed with an orange ball, not a brown one.

But it didn’t take long for Mack Brown to win over the hearts of Texas fans, and the rest, as they say, is history. 131 wins. 2 conference championships. One crystal trophy.

An athletic department that makes more money than a gold mine. A stadium that Joe Jamail is proud to have his name on, unlike in 1997 when he told Deloss, “how much … money will it take to get my name off that … field?”

Now it is unfathomable that anyone would want to fire Dodds, who has built the strongest athletic program in the country fueled by the strongest football program in the country.
So why the trip down bad memory lane? I guess it is just impossible to think of a UCLA/Texas game without thinking about that game, a game that in an odd way was a turning point of Texas football, even if it didn’t appear so to the fans filing out of the stadium looking for somewhere better to eat than On the Border.

Even though Mack Brown had his own 63-14 and 65-13 games that seemed so much worse than that September day, his teams always rallied to finish out the seasons strong, just as I had wished while looking at the bird excrement on the ramps down Belmont Hall.

And yes, there is that national championship as well.

So even if you get the shakes at the sight of those UCLA uniforms once again inside the confines of DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, take a moment to ponder how far this program has come since then, and if you could have ever imagined that when you walked out of the stadium that day.

We’re lucky, folks. Enjoy the ride, because you never know when it will come crashing down amid a plate of Ranchiladas.

On to the games...

South Carolina @ Auburn -3:

South Carolina hasn’t beaten Auburn since 1933, so the latest trends aren’t good for the Gamecocks, but Auburn had a lot taken out of them in an overtime win over Clemson last week, while South Carolina comes into this game playing really well.

South Carolina 27 Auburn 21
ATS – South Carolina
SU – South Carolina

Oregon State @ Boise State -17.5:

Yawn. Another “statement” game for Boise, which reminds me of Andy Dalton’s quote above. Oregon State is a nice program, but the fact of the matter is that they are 1-1 with a loss to TCU and an unimpressive win over dreadful Louisville last week.

The Beavers gave up 453 yards to Louisville in Corvallis last week, and spent this week painting their practice field blue instead of fixing the pass defense. Boise rolls at home, ESPN drools and America rolls their collective eyes.

Boise State 48 Oregon State 24
ATS – Boise State
SU – Boise State

Alabama -7 @ Arkansas:

Alabama spanked Arkansas 35-7 last year at Bryant-Denny, and while this one is getting hyped as a classic SEC match-up, it smacks to me of contender vs. pretender. Until Arkansas shows something against a quality opponent, I have to go with the proven commodity.

Alabama 28 Arkansas 13
ATS – Alabama
SU – Alabama

Stanford -4.5 @ Notre Dame:

Stanford has quietly rolled out to a 3-0 start in the darkness of West Coast late night starts, with an impressive 35-0 victory over UCLA and 68-24 drubbing of Wake Forest last week.

Andrew Luck is third in the country in passing efficiency, and this is the game where people start to talk seriously about him and post-season awards.

Stanford 34 Notre Dame 24
ATS – Stanford
SU – Stanford

Oklahoma -13.5 @ Cincinnati:

On a completely unrelated note, don’t ever bet on Oklahoma against a service academy. You’ll feel dirty, and OU will end up screwing you in the end.

A great start by DeMarco Murray has helped Oklahoma avoid dropping an embarrassing one to Utah State or Air Force, games which the Sooners have won by a total of 10 points. Utah State lost by 17 to Fresno last week, while Air Force is a nice team, but won’t remind anyone of Texas or Nebraska anytime soon.

So what’s wrong with the Sooners? Let’s start with a defense that has allowed an average of 408 yards per game, good for 89th in the country, and a running game that goes nowhere with anyone but Murray running the ball. Add in a largely ineffective Landry Jones, and the Sooners look shaky at best right now despite a blowout win over Florida State.

But the Bearcats don’t have much either, dropping two of three to start the season due to an offense that is only 84th in the country and a pass defense that is giving up 247 yards per game. One thing Cincinnati does do right is keep the ball in their own hands as Zac Collaros has yet to throw an interception this year.

Cincinnati will be able to hit a couple of big plays, keeping the ball away from Oklahoma. It won’t be enough to win, but I’m not sure Oklahoma is good enough to beat solid teams away from Norman in convincing fashion.

Oklahoma 31 Cincinnati 20
ATS – Cincinnati
SU – Cincinnati

UCLA @ Texas -15:

The offense might have been mediocre last week, but the defense was anything but, only giving up 144 total yards, a number that Texas Tech might have gotten in the first quarter against Texas in recent years.

But oh that offense. 4 turnovers and 3 sacks after not allowing either all season. 93 yards rushing against a Red Raider defense that gave up 109 against SMU and 97 against New Mexico.

What is this offense? Is it a running team? Obviously not, only averaging 152 yards per game on the year, good enough for 65th in the country. Is it a passing team? No, the passing game has been worse at 71st in the country. Not one single running back has stepped up. Not one single receiver has established himself as the go-to guy on offense.

With all due respect to UCLA and the talent they have on defense, they gave up 313 yards rushing to Kansas State, 211 rushing yards to Stanford and 252 passing yards to four different Houston quarterbacks last week. This is the last “warm-up” act before facing Oklahoma and Nebraska.

Oklahoma’s defense has struggled thus far, but you’re kidding yourself if you don’t think they won’t be at their best against Texas. Nebraska’s defensive numbers are down, but they’ll be amped up with their lame one second BS and will be ready to play as well.

If the Longhorns don’t get their … together this week, then this offense has major problems that might not be fixed all season.

When the Bruins take the field, they’ll be led by Kevin Prince, who missed most of fall practice with an injury and it shows, as he’s thrown 4 interceptions to 1 touchdown pass as the Bruins average only 100 yards of passing yards all season.

The Longhorns absolutely tee off on one dimensional offenses, and UCLA has that, running for 266 yards last week and only throwing for 99 against Houston.
In fact, it is hard to see the Bruins doing much at all on offense. Let us hope that isn’t the case for Texas.

Texas 34 UCLA 6
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas


Random Hot Dallas Chick

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For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Maudie’s.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

The Week That Will Be (09.18.2010)

For those of you that don't know, I am now writing these at Barking Carnival,  you can also find my writing about the Dallas Cowboys at www.ringofhonor.fantake.com

Last Week: 3-3 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 5-5-2 (.500) ($70) ATS 10-2 (.833) SU


What we learned last week:

We learned that Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson must have idolized Vince Young, as his 502 total yards were enough to beat Notre Dame. Robinson is the nation’s leading rusher as a QB…

We learned that Mark Ingram is not missed in Tuscaloosa, as Trent Richardson accounted for 193 total offensive yards and a touchdown as Alabama stomped Penn State and their 104 year old coach…

We learned that Jacory Harris needs a refresh on which team he plays for, and Terrelle Pryor does a mean Denard Robinson impression, throwing for 233 and rushing for 113….

We learned that Oregon doesn’t give a damn about flying across the country nor about playing in front of 100,000 plus, while we also learned that Tennessee has a long, long way to go to get back to respectability…

We learned that Florida State is not nearly as good as Utah State as Oklahoma scored touchdowns on their first four drives and gained 294 yards on those drives against the Seminoles…

And finally, we learned that the next time Texas plays Wyoming that the Cowboys will take the lead late in the second quarter before Texas wakes up and puts it away…

Anyhow…

It is RIVALRY week around the University of Texas campus as the Longhorns travel to play Texas A&M, er, Oklahoma, er Texas Tech? Rivalry week? The designers of the popular video game NCAA Football 2011 might be the only people on the planet that thinks this is actually a rivalry game, including the people living on the south plains, but isn’t that the gist of this game over the years?

As of Wednesday night 1,600 students were skipping class, showers and any chance of getting a date the rest of the semester by camping out in hopes of getting the best seats for Saturday night’s game at Jones AT&T Stadium.

Why?

Because this is the game they have had circled on the calendar since the last time these two teams met. To Texas Tech, this is their BCS game, their Big 12 Championship, since they have never experienced either one, while to Texas, this is just an annoying field trip that they have to make every other year.

Perhaps it is time to start taking the red-headed stepchild seriously.

The Red Raiders are 41-6 in Lubbock since 2003. Mack Brown’s Longhorns are 3-3 at Jones Stadium. Texas has won the Big 12 South outright four times under Brown and none of those seasons included a win in Lubbock. Oklahoma hasn’t won there since 2003, when Jason White and BJ Symons squared off. The Aggies won once there last decade. Nebraska gave up 70 in 2004. Oklahoma State went there in 2008 ranked #9 in the country and left with a 56-20 defeat.

Lots of teams need “revenge” once they leave Lubbock.

The Longhorns should know better than anybody. In 2008 a Vondrell McGee 4 yard run with 1:29 left gave the Longhorns the lead, but it was short-lived as Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree ended the hopes of the Horns to reach the national championship game.

In 2002 Texas entered the game ranked #3 in the country, but a Chris Simms interception with 5:21 left sealed the fate for the Longhorns, who lost 42-38. Both times, the Red Raiders set themselves up for a chance to win the South, or in the case of 2008, perhaps play for the national title.

Both times, Oklahoma in Norman was next on the schedule. The combined score of those two games was Oklahoma 125, Texas Tech 36.

So this isn’t the case of Texas Tech slowly getting better, building a program and taking care of things on the home turf while winning some tough ones away from home.

Nope. They simply want the game more than their opponent does.

Focus shouldn’t be a problem for the Longhorns on Saturday night, as Garrett Gilbert makes his first start in a game that isn’t a Texas home game in disguise. In fact, if you are looking for some good news in all of this, Vince Young and Colt McCoy both won their first start in Lubbock.

Take the game seriously. Take the opponent seriously. Don’t let one misstep in Lubbock cost you the shot at something special later on in the year.

Otherwise, in 2012 when I sit down to write this article I’ll just have to add a couple of paragraphs and be done with it.

On to the games...

Florida -14 @ Tennessee:

Well isn’t this deciding whether to take the valedictorian or the drum major to the prom…Tennessee still has duck imprints on their jerseys while Florida has looked about as smooth on the football field as Chris Rainey is smooth with the ladies.

(Side note: Would Rainey be in more trouble with the law with his ‘Time to Die’ text message, or more trouble with the girlfriend if the text message had said ‘Time to Diet”. Discuss.)

Well the title of this column isn’t The Week That Who Knows Will Be, so we have to pick a winner here. Give me Florida and their superior talent (even if it hasn’t made an appearance in 2010) over Tennessee and their no talent.

Florida 31 Tennessee 14
ATS – Florida
SU – Florida

Arkansas @ Georgia -2.5:

Georgia looks to avoid going 0-2 in conference in conference play as 61 yards rushing on 26 attempts doomed their chances against South Carolina last week. Arkansas is ready to join the 2010 college football season after pre-season wins over Tennessee Tech and Louisiana-Monroe.

Arkansas is the better team here, but Georgia is desperate, Arkansas might be looking forward to Alabama next week, lots of opportunities for Georgia to get up and sneak one out here.

Georgia 23 Arkansas 20
ATS – Georgia
SU – Georgia

Iowa -2 @ Arizona:

Well if you guessed that this is the only game on the slate this week between ranked teams you win a cookie, as Iowa travels to the desert for a late night match-up with the Cats.

Iowa performed well on the road last year, defeating Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan State while losing in overtime to Ohio State. But something strikes me about traveling to the west coast, playing a late game in front of a raucous crowd, against an experienced quarterback and a solid defense.

Arizona 27 Iowa 20
ATS – Arizona
SU – Arizona

Baylor @ TCU -21.5:

It is an old-fashioned SWC match-up as Baylor travels to Fort Worth to take on TCU, who rolled Tennessee Tech (TT gets two mentions in TWTWB, woo-hoo!) one week after defeating Oregon State in impressive fashion.

Baylor’s best chance of an upset lies in the legs and arm of Baylor QB Robert Griffin, who has 7 touchdowns in the first two games of the year.

I look for Baylor to extend the game a bit here, keep the ball in Griffin’s hand and out of the hands of TCU.

TCU 31 Baylor 17
ATS – Baylor
SU – TCU

Nebraska -3 @ Washington:

Well, well, well…if any of you were worried about Nebraska traveling to the Great Northwest and playing in front of one of the loudest crowds in the country, never fear, because quarterback Taylor Martinez has seen all of this before:

“I played in high school in big games, the crowd doesn’t bother me very much.”

Yes, he actually said that.

Wow.

The arrogance of the young signal caller aside, the question here is whether Martinez will be able to pass the ball if Washington is able to take away the run, not that there is any evidence that they will able to do so.

Jake Locker could use this game for his Heisman candidacy, but Nebraska’s defense is too stout while Washington’s is too porous.

Nebraska 34 Washington 24
ATS – Nebraska
SU – Nebraska

Texas -3 @ Texas Tech:

The one thing that jumps out at you when you look at Texas Tech this year is that their offense isn’t as explosive as the Mike Leach offense was, albeit with a small sample size of two games.

But last year through two games the Red Raiders were 1st in the country in passing offense (456.5 ypg) and 16th in the country in total offense (502.5 ypg). This year they are 11th in passing (334.5 ypg) and 29th in total offense (446.5 ypg).

Still impressive, but not Mike Leach Hide the Women and Children Grab a Receiver and Hold On Offense that we’ve grown accustomed to. Tech is making a concentrated effort to try to run the ball more, and while they aren’t having much success (93rd in the country with 112 ypg), they have some talent back there with Baron Batch and Eric Stephens.

Offensive coordinator Neal Brown comes to Tech from Troy University, and while I respect his efforts there, if you’re asking me to pick between Neal Brown and Will Muschamp, I’ll take Muschamp 100 times out of 100.

On defense, Tech is undergoing a rehaul from the base defense philosophy of Ruffin McNeil to the multiple sets of James Willis (the former Philadelphia Eagles linebacker and linebacker coach at Alabama last year). The transition has not been a smooth one, as Tech ranks 80th in the country in total defense and 105th in passing defense after facing SMU and New Mexico.

The Lobos managed to throw for 336 yards and had 146 rushing yards before sacks. The week before, they managed 82 yards passing and 83 yards rushing against an Oregon team that will never be confused with the Steel Curtain.

This one will depend largely on the Texas offense. Will Gilbert and his receivers use this opportunity to get on track and put up some big numbers for the first time this year? Will a running back step up and be consistent for an entire game…or half? Will the offensive line be able to handle a defensive front that has already recorded 9 sacks this year?


Yes. No. Yes.

Call me foolish, but the Longhorns are simply better, and significantly better at that.

Texas 34 Texas Tech 21
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

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For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Bleachers.

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

The Week That Will Be (09.11.2010)

Last Week: 2-2-2 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 2-2-2 (.500) ($40) ATS 5-1 (.833) SU


What we learned last week:

We learned that Pitt quarterback Tino Sunseri is named after Santino “Sonny” Corleone from The Godfather, which I’m glad I didn’t know beforehand because I totally would have went Pitt’s way…

We learned that Notre Dame can win in Brian Kelly’s first game and absolutely nothing noteworthy can happen in that game…

We learned that Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer needs to put on his job evaluation “must improve time management” after throwing the ball on 3rd and 8 and giving Boise State the ball with 2:00 to go in the game. Who didn’t know what was coming there?

We learned that Kyle Padron thought he was part of the Texas Tech quarterback battle by throwing to Red Raiders all day long, but SMU still held tough with Tech, which either bodes well for SMU or spells doom for Tech…

We learned that Texas might be able to run against UCLA, as Kansas State ran for 313 yards against the Bruins, with Daniel Thomas getting 234 of those…

And finally, we learned that Keenan Robinson is going to win the Nagurski Award…

Unless you spent Labor Day weekend in Devil’s Cove getting sunburned and lost your phone going down a slide, you know that college football kicked off last weekend, but we can still do a college football preview a week in, it isn’t like anyone of importance lost last weekend (with all due respect to Kansas and Mississippi).

The Summer of 2010 was an eventful one, as we had guys kicking balls back and forth to each other and a riveted globe watching guys kick balls back and forth to each other, we had BP threatening Tiger Woods for A-Hole of the Year and speaking of Tiger Woods we had US troops pulling out of Iraq, 7 years after the war began.

Let’s look at the top contenders for the national championship trophy, and how they might compare to the top news stories of Summer 2010.

The World Cup Division

They might be a big news story, but most of America couldn’t care less about Boise State and TCU. The arguments have been told a thousand times, but honestly, let’s take a look at Alabama’s schedule this year: San Jose State (stay with me), Penn State, @ Duke, @ Arkansas, Florida, @ South Carolina, Mississippi, @ Tennessee, @ LSU, Mississippi State, Georgia State (what the hell), Auburn (who hates you with a passion).

Either one of those teams loses at least 2 in there somewhere.

I suppose they are a nice story, but to hear Pat Forde have a kid with Boise State beating a potential 3-4 loss Virginia Tech and seeing Boise State high five their fans after winning a game they were favored in was a bit ridiculous.

But whatever, they won their one game a season again, let’s party.

The Wikileaks Division

Ohio State is 75 percent of the country’s pick to win the national title solely due to the fact that Terrelle Pryor “arrived” after throwing for 266 yards and rushing for 72 in the Rose Bowl against an Oregon team that gave up 306 yards to Sean Canfield of Oregon State, 314 to Nick Foles of Arizona and 223 yards to Toby Gerhart, all after Halloween.

If Terrelle Pryor “arrived” at the Rose Bowl, then what the hell did Vince Young do, enter the ring, hit everyone over the head with a steel chair, give them the Stone Cold Stunner and down a Budweiser with his foot on Michigan and USC’s chest? Actually, he kinda did…

And apparently news hasn’t leaked that Nebraska still doesn’t have a quarterback. Last year’s starter Zach Lee could barely get off the bench last week against Western Kentucky while some guy named Taylor Martinez barely completed 50 percent of his passes against that fearless Hilltopper defense. Add to that the fact that they lost the heart of their defense in Suh, Asante and O’Hanlon, and Nebraska is nowhere near the 6th best team in the country.

The Chelsea’s Wedding Division

Well both certainly had a guy with heart trouble and an ugly duckling, as Florida’s offense managed 25 yards through three quarters of play against Miami of Ohio on Saturday. Yikes. John Brantley is going to have to get better, quick, or Florida will be spending New Year’s in Atlanta at the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

The Larry King Retires Division

Penn State isn’t really a contender, I just wanted to make fun of Joe Paterno some more. But I can’t even do that anymore…give it up, Joe! Your younger brother Larry King is retiring, it is time for you to do the same…

The Inception Division

Yeah, Texas fans would like to think it was a dream without that crazy wife with the knives coming after you (well, most of us), but I’m not sure I see anyone beating Alabama again this year. They have the defense, the offense last year was adequate enough last year and is back, and even though Boise & TCU might drop a couple with that schedule, the Tide get their toughest games at home.

On to the games...

Michigan @ Notre Dame -4:

All eyes on the Big Ten this week as they have three premier match-ups, starting with this one. It tells you how far Michigan has fallen that people are impressed by a victory over Connecticut, but it is what it is. Notre Dame had that win over Purdue that I still can’t tell you anything noteworthy from that game.

Michigan is better, but the defense still gave up 343 yards to a middle of the road UConn offense, while Notre Dame looked fairly impressive on both sides of the ball…I think.

The home team has won 8 of the last 10 in this series, and I don’t see any reason to see this one any differently.

Notre Dame 31 Michigan 24
ATS – Notre Dame
SU – Notre Dame

Penn State @ Alabama -12:

I don’t see Penn State having much of a chance here. They struggled much of last week, freshman quarterback, not a good game to get your sea legs.

Alabama 31 Penn State 14
ATS – Alabama
SU – Alabama

Miami @ Ohio State -8.5:

Ah yes, “revenge” for the 2003 Fiesta Bowl and the controversial pass interference penalty that led to Ohio State being the worst national champions in recent history (yes, including 2 loss LSU).

But that is ancient history to the guys that will take the field on Saturday. Pryor gets all the hype, but Jacory Harris is the better player, finishing 30th in the country in passing efficiency last year while Pryor finished 59th.

I’m not sure that Miami has enough help on offense against an always stout Ohio State team, though.

Ohio State 23 Miami 16
ATS – Miami
SU – Ohio State

Oregon -12 @ Tennessee:

Oregon treated New Mexico last week like John Blake treats FBS programs, destroying them 72-0.

I think Vegas got a little carried away with that win. Yeah, Tennessee isn’t going to be much this year, but Oregon isn’t going to remind everyone of 1995 Nebraska, either.

Oregon wins, but barely. Going across the country and playing in front of 100,000 isn’t easy.

Oregon 34 Tennessee 28
ATS – Tennessee
SU – Oregon

Florida State @ Oklahoma -7.5:

Oklahoma fans spent the better part of the week convincing themselves that the Sooners spent all of their practice time this summer preparing for Florida State, and they might have even convinced themselves of that by today, but one stat line would scare the hell out of me as a Sooner fan:

Jones, L 17/36 217 YDS 2 TD 2 INT

Sooner fans are used to their heralded quarterbacks blowing the doors off the opening day opponent (except last year when Sam Bradford got his door blown off), but Jones struggled with his reads and appeared to have spent more time on his mustache in the off-season then he did refining his game.

The Sooners also gave up 341 passing yards to Utah State, making you wonder if the attrition on defense might dent that reputation this year.

But…when it is this obvious, I’m sensing a trap. Being a Texas fan, I hope I’m wrong.


Oklahoma 34 Florida State 24
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Wyoming @ Texas -29:

Texas brings a 15 game home winning streak into this one, and while Wyoming kept it close for a half last year, they’ll be hard pressed to replicate that in Austin.

Austyn Carta-Samuels might bring a terrible name into the game, but he does have a good arm and an athletic style of play, throwing for 1900 yards and 10 TDs in limited duty last season.

Their leader on defense is the linebacker Brian Hendricks, who you might remember had 14 tackles against Texas last year and matched that with 14 tackles last week against Southern Utah. One man theoretically can’t beat you on defense, but Hendricks will wreck shop if the Longhorns don’t get serious about hitting the holes in the running game.

I see the Longhorns winning comfortably here, but the offense was too iffy last week to see them coming out and scoring in bunches…but we’ll see.

Texas 41 Wyoming 13
ATS – Wyoming
SU – Texas

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Alumni Center whiskey.

Sunday, September 5, 2010

Texas 34 Rice 17

Not sure what to think of this one.

On one hand there were a lot of good individual performances (K. Robinson, Whittaker, M. Williams), and there were no turnovers, not a lot of penalties, but on the other hand we won by 17 over frickin Rice.

We were a couple of plays away from making it a 48-10 game, but they didn't happen. I think for now I'm going to write it off as a glorified scrimmage, but if it continues into Wyoming then it will be a concern.

At least we aren't Kansas, Mississippi or Oklahoma today.

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

The Week That Will Be (09.04.2010)



Last Week: 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU
For the Year: 0-0 (.000) $0 ATS 0-0 (.000) SU


We sat on the golf course, under the trees along the cart path, about 150 yards off the tee box where one of my errant left hook drives might have ended up waiting for traffic to clear out. We sat there in silence, wondering how the hell anyone was supposed to get out of this “parking lot”, knowing that we didn’t have the patience to try it ourselves anytime soon.

So we waited. And waited.

Cell phones rang, text messages buzzed. If you listened carefully between the bangs of the Alabama students next to us kicking the fender of their rental car “because it had insurance”, there was one common theme…

What can you do?

What can you do when the quarterback that has won 45 games, the most wins of any quarterback to ever play at this level, gets hit on a freak play and is suddenly rendered unable to play? What can you do when his back-up is a kid fresh out of high school who can’t even find his helmet?

You would have thought that the cool Pasadena air held the answer to that question, as fans in burnt orange fleeces drank the last of their beer, threw it in the trash bag and stared up at the sky, wondering what might have been.

As the glut of cars eased and the rental car became visible, we filed out into the Los Angeles highway system, hoping against all hope that a little In and Out would make it all better.

And then in our exhaustion we never made it to In and Out.

What an terrible ending to a terrible night.

Two days later, as I sat on an American Airlines jet somewhere over the great state of Arizona, the feelings of disappointment and helplessness turning into sadness, I pulled out my phone and just had to write some of these thoughts down.

Some words from that essay: Fate. Why? What if? Fateful.

The common theme in my head, and plenty of others, was that this was an act of fate, that something above intervened and it was karma for making fun of Tim Tebow all of these years.

What can you do?

Don’t wait on fate to repay you.

Get better.

Fix a running game that ranked 61st in the country and gained only 99 yards against Nebraska and Alabama’s defenses combined. It might be lip service, because honestly we’ve heard it before around these parts, but Mack Brown knew early on that being able to run the ball when you needed to, against anybody in the country, is what won a national championship for Alabama (205 yards rushing against Texas) and Florida (249 yards against Oklahoma) in recent years.

When you have the passing attack that Texas has you will of course lean plenty on getting the ball downfield quickly, but getting under center and getting more physical at the point of attack was probably the most important emphasis of the off-season. A possible indication of the direction the team would like to go is the naming of Cody Johnson, as the starting tailback against Rice on Saturday. Although he is slimmed down, Johnson is still the bruising type of rusher that you want to see if your goal is to get meaner up front.

A significant piece of the pie in that re-worked running game is a revamped offensive line, one that has been described as “physical” and “nasty”, the traits you don’t want in your daughter’s boyfriend but do want in your offensive line. Again, it will take more than talking about it to get the job done, but any hint of a return to the nasty offensive line such as the one led by Kasey Studdard on the 2005 championship team is welcome.

If it is possible to fix a defense that finished 3rd in the country and 1st against the rush, Texas aimed to do that in the off-season after Texas A&M (190 yards) & Alabama (205 yards) were able to find significant running lanes down the stretch run last year.

What has emerged in camp is a defense that Mack Brown isn’t shy to call the best that he’s had here, which is certainly saying something. The loss of Earl Thomas stung, but Texas promises to be more physical with Christian Scott delivering hits from the safety position. Talent wins out over scheme, as Alex Okafor moves to defensive tackle to help shore up depth problems there, leaving defensive end to Sam Acho, Eddie Jones and true freshmen Jackson Jeffcoat and Reggie Wilson.

Texas loses Roddrick Muckelroy in the linebacking corps but Keenan Robinson (10 tackles against Nebraska; 7 against Alabama) showed promise late last season and will fill in nicely. Those of us that have wondered what Derek Johnson might have looked like in a Will Muschamp coached defense might get their wish when Jordan Hicks takes the field…as a back-up.

But of course we all know what helps an already great defense…a consistent offense.

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the Garrett Gilbert Era.

How do you follow up a quartet of quarterbacks (McCoy, Young, Simms, Applewhite) that established a win-loss record of 123-24 in their tenure at Texas? How do you replace a quarterback that won the school’s first national championship in 35 years, or the quarterback who won the aforementioned 45 games and broke 47 school records?

By going and getting the guy that could be better than them all.

Name every quarterback in Texas high school football history and Gilbert threw for more yards than any of them, 12,537 of them to be exact. He guided Lake Travis to thirty straight wins in the process of winning two state titles his junior and senior years. He won numerous player of the year awards on the state and national level. But the best of all?

He’s been a Longhorn since elementary school.

It took less than 24 hours after he received his offer from Texas to commit here, the first commit in his class. His dad, former NFL quarterback Gale Gilbert, asked Garrett to consider other schools, but Garrett refused. Why would you look at other schools when your boyhood idol, Major Applewhite, is on the coaching staff at Texas?

And after finding his helmet in Pasadena, despite only throwing 15 completions all year, Gilbert persevered and threw for 186 yards, 162 of those coming in the second half, almost cementing his legacy without starting a game in his career.

But this is Texas and to be frank that is probably the last free pass he’ll get. With the gaudy stats and lineage of successful quarterbacks comes the price of success: Expectations.

Pressure won’t be a problem for Gilbert. Word came early in the spring practice sessions that Gilbert handled the huddle like a seasoned veteran. Intimidating defenders Aaron Williams (perhaps the next Thorpe award winner at Texas) and Chykie Brown tried to rattle the sophomore in informal practice sessions over the summer, only to get their trash talk thrown right back in their face by the normally laid back Gilbert.

Will he be able to put all of that together? Time will tell. There are plenty of heralded quarterbacks who have fallen by the wayside.

But I’m not going to bet against the kid with the rocket arm and honor roll intelligence, the kid with the NFL pedigree and championship experience already under his belt.

What Can You Do?

The process of answering that question begins Saturday in Houston.

I can’t wait.

On to the games...

Pittsburgh @ Utah -3:

Pitt is the favorite to win the Big East this year, but traveling to Salt Lake City to start the year isn’t the perfect recipe for success.

The Panthers are of course looking to avenge the 35-7 loss in the 2004 Fiesta Bowl at the hands of the Utes (no, not really). Dion Lewis is a game changer in the backfield for Pitt, but Utah’s strength of a rebuilding defense is their defensive line.

Look for a gritty, hard fought game, but I’m not sure that a Dave Wannstedt coached team has the ability to go into an environment like this and get the W with an inexperienced quarterback.

Utah 27 Pittsburgh 21
ATS – Utah
SU – Utah

Purdue @ Notre Dame -11:

Brian Kelly had better go to Costco and get the biggest eraser he can find if he wants to erase Charlie Weis from the memory of Notre Dame fans.

Jimmy Clausen is gone, and junior Dayne Crist is the new signal caller in South Bend. Crist has only passed for 130 yards in his collegiate career, so Kelly certainly has his work cut out for him there.

Purdue is seemingly the only team in the country that can’t beat Notre Dame, having lost four out of the last five in this series, and while I see that trend continuing on Saturday, Purdue keeps this one close.
Notre Dame 28 Purdue 24
ATS – Purdue
SU – Notre Dame

Boise State -2 v. Virginia Tech:

Here’s to you, Mr. Taylor, the nation turns its lonely eyes to you…

The only way in which “Can Boise State make the BCS title game?” doesn’t approach “Brett Favre, retiring or one more year?” status and we have Rachel Nichols renting a weekly hotel room in Boise for the next 4 months is for Virginia Tech to end our long national nightmare…and beat Boise State.

This is only the third time since 1996 that the Hokies will play a regular season game on the East Coast, the last being a 48-13 loss to Georgia (hey, Georgia has a coast!) in 2005.

The question for the Hokies last year at this time was what would they do without running back Darren Evans, who tore his ACL and would be out for the year. His back-up Ryan Williams ran for 1,655 yards, putting those fears to rest, and now they get to team up to form one of the most formidable backfields in the country.

They’ll need them unless quarterback Tyrod Taylor shows this year that he can indeed hit the broad side of a barn.

When Boise State isn’t making a mockery of football with their blue turf, running trick plays or proposing to their girlfriends on the sidelines they run out a stout defense to go along with quarterback Kellen Moore, who has thrown for 7,022 yards in the past two seasons.

This game is at Fed Ex Field in Landover, a virtual home game for the Hokies. I look for that to put them over the edge, as how often does Boise really play in front of a true hostile crowd?

Virginia Tech 24 Boise State 17
ATS – Virginia Tech
SU – Virginia Tech

SMU @ Texas Tech -13.5:

The line tells you that these two programs have gone in different directions since 2008, the last time these teams met. Tech was a 36 point favorite that night, and ended up winning the ballgame 43-7.

June Jones has the Mustangs on an uptick while Tech is shrouded with uncertainty after Mike Leach was fired this off-season and Tommy Tuberville took over head coaching duties.

Of course Tech still has the upper hand and could very well win this one handily…but something tells me that SMU kicks it in high gear this season while Tech might stumble out of the gate with the new coaching staff.

Texas Tech 31 SMU 24
ATS – SMU
SU – Texas Tech

UCLA @ Kansas State -1.5:

Is this the year Rick Neuheisel turns things around in Westwood? A 11-14 record in his first two years on campus haven’t exactly lit a fire under the alumni base, but a couple of strong recruiting classes and the troubles across town at USC have the Bruins thinking that things are turning around.

It all starts and ends with the quarterback position. The Bruins have been killed at that position in recent years with lack of talent and injuries to whatever talent they have, and that continues this year with favorite Kevin Prince a game time decision. Add to the injury issues the fact that the Bruins are implementing a new pistol offense this year, and the UCLA offense is a mess.

The defense is better with Akeem Ayers and Rahim Moore able to play anywhere in the country, and it will have to be to contain Kansas State running back Daniel Thomas.

UCLA won this one last year 23-9 at the Rose Bowl, but with the uncertainty on offense, I don’t see how they stay in the game here.

Kansas State 24 UCLA 16
ATS – Kansas State
SU – Kansas State

Texas -30.5 @ Rice:

Texas blowing out Rice is a yearly tradition going back several years, so I’m not going to bore you with breaking down the Texas MLB v. Rice’s running game, because we all know that Texas is going to win, and they’re going to win big.

So what would we like to see from the Longhorns on Saturday?

I’d like to see the running game get established. Yes, it is just Rice and their pathetic defense, but you have to be able to run against these teams in addition to the Nebraskas and Oklahomas on your schedule. I want to see an offensive line that is less interested in cutting jokes during press conferences and more interested in kicking the ass of the guy in front of him.

I’d like to see Garrett Gilbert establish himself. Come out and shine and the kid has confidence beaming from his ears. Come out shaky and the Horns faithful will wonder if we’re in for an inconsistent year from the quarterback position. Put those fears to rest with a nice yardage, good TD to INT ratio game.

I’d like to see the defense unleash hell. Again, it is just Rice, but I want to see all these new tools and how they’re going to fit into this defense going forth, and I want to keep a bad team down and stay that way, no giving up 20 points ala Louisiana Monroe last year.

That’s not too much to ask, is it?

Texas 55 Rice 10
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

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