Thursday, October 30, 2008

The LM Blog: Texas Tech preview

Find Drew's thoughts on Texas/Texas Tech, as well as excellent commentary from former Longhorn great Rod Walker here.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

The Week That Will Be (11.01.08)

Last Week: 3-3 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 33-20-1 (.623) ($1100) ATS 45-9 (.833) SU


What we learned last week: We learned that either Georgia is finally reaching their potential, or we learned that LSU’s defense is absolutely horrid this year. After giving up 50+ points to Florida, LSU gave up half a hundred in another big game. Somehow I can’t really bring myself to feel sorry for LSU or their fans, however…We learned that Alabama might not have the biggest names or the biggest stats, but they keep winning with a tough defense and efficiency on offense. Think of them as college football’s The Office…Speaking of The Office, the Penn State/Ohio State game on Saturday reminded me of a mud wrestling match between Phyllis and Meredith, as in completely unwatchable. Is there a sane football mind out there that would put their next paycheck on either of those teams against a Big 12 or SEC powerhouse?....We learned that yes, it is possible to have a 4 incompletion to 3 touchdown ratio in a quarter as Todd Reesing put his team square behind the 8 ball against Texas Tech. You do that in a video game and you re-set the console. You do that in real life and you blow your inside lane to the Big 12 Championship game…We learned that Oklahoma can score 55 points in one half and 3 in the next, and somehow Kansas State can look like a big time contender and the worst team in the Big 12 in the course of one game….And finally we learned that Texas is still the class of the nation, but that the team they beat on Saturday is no slouch. That might end up being the Longhorns’ biggest quality win of the year, including the bowl game.

Anyhow…

The Longhorns have a big game this week. Stop me if you’ve heard this before.

And that’s the end of the column. No, not really.

Texas ventures out to scenic Lubbock, TX on Saturday night to take on the #5 Texas Tech Red Raiders. Last week it was the #8 Oklahoma State Cowboys. The week before it was the #12 Missouri Tigers (who were #3 the week before). And the week before that it was the #1 Oklahoma Sooners.

Never before had the Longhorns beaten three ranked teams in three weeks before last week’s victory over Oklahoma State, but it’s going to have to be four out of four if they are going to get the job done here.

Much has been made this week about going to Lubbock and playing a game at night in the venerable Jones AT&T Stadium in front of a massive crowd of 53,000 that have decided in their infinite dork-dom to wear black this week, because they are going to “black-out” Texas.

And therein lies your problem, Texas Tech.

Top teams, true contenders for the national title, don’t need false motivation to get themselves going. Last week, when #8 Oklahoma State came to town, you could feel the buzz around town all week, and a sell-out crowd (and the biggest crowd to ever see a game in the state of Texas) didn’t need to be reminded how big the game was. It was loud and proud, and let the team do the talking on the field.

You’ve heard all week that Texas has a problem on the plains, but it is simply not true.

Yes, Mack Brown has lost twice in Lubbock in 5 tries, but let’s take a look at those games.

1998:

The Horns traveled to Lubbock in mid-November, coming off a 6 game winning streak that saw them take down #7 Nebraska in Lincoln, their first home loss in quite a while.

They lost to Tech despite Ricky Williams rushing for 141 yards and Wane McGarity’s 4 touchdowns. The Longhorns led 21-20 going to the fourth quarter, but the teams traded touchdowns in the fourth quarter, and unfortunately Tech was last in the trading, as they came out ahead, 42-35.

But how good was that Texas team? They finished 9-3 and were blown out by UCLA and Kansas State early in the year. They were a team that was just getting used to winning again, and had a freshman quarterback by the name of Major Applewhite. They won six straight games in the middle of the year (some of those very close wins), and probably over-achieved that year.

Tech finished the season 7-5.

2002

The Horns again traveled to Lubbock in mid-November, this time ranked #4 in the nation and riding a four game winning streak after losing to Oklahoma earlier in the year. Tech was 7-4, mired in mediocrity.

The Longhorns jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead, but the Red Raiders quickly tied it up in the second quarter behind Kliff Kingsbury and Wes Welker. The teams went to the half tied at 21, but Tech scored early in the third with another touchdown pass to Welker (who finished with 240 all purpose yards). The Horns tied it up with an 80 yard drive and the teams went to the fourth quarter tied up at 28.

Texas got a field goal, Tech answered with a touchdown, but the Horns appeared to have broken the Red Raiders’ back on the next drive, as all it took was one play for Chris Simms to hook up with BJ Johnson for a 84 yard touchdown pass to give the Horns a 38-35 lead with 9:26 left. That was not the case, however, as Tech answered with a 25 yard pass to Taurean Henderson with 5:41 left. Simms was intercepted on the next drive and Tech ran out the clock to close it out.

Yes, the Horns entered the game 4th in the country, with a defense ranked 5th nationally. But the Horns were also without the services of DT Marcus Tubbs and DE Kalen Thornton.

Did the Red Raiders catch the Horns sleeping? Perhaps. The Longhorns finished out the season with a win over Texas A&M and a Cotton Bowl win over LSU to finish the season 11-2, while Tech went on to again finish 7-5.

So what do those two games tell us? Yes, we can have trouble on the plains….if we don’t take Tech seriously.

In 2006, Texas fell down 21-0 before they rallied to win 35-31. Texas entered the game #5 in the country, while Tech entered unranked.

But consider this. When Texas and Texas Tech enter this game ranked, Texas is 3-1 against the Red Raiders.

Last time the teams were ranked? 2005, when the Horns beat #10 Texas Tech 52-17 in Austin. The year before #8 Texas took down #24 Texas Tech in Lubbock, 51-21.

The Red Raiders are a very talented team that is very dangerous, but let’s get real here. They are still Texas Tech, a wannabe program that has never faced the pressure that will face them on Saturday night.

Who do you trust more in a big game? Mack Brown, whose team is now 16-2 against ranked opponents going back to mid-October 2004, or Mike Leach, the drunken malcontent who is fascinated with pirates and picks his kickers from the Chick-fil-A Kick Around the Country contest?

Who would you want as your quarterback? Colt McCoy, who is making video game quarterbacks look ordinary, or Graham Harrell, who had to rally to beat Virginia in the Gator Bowl and threw 9 interceptions in his four losses last year and acts like a petulant punk?

What about your defensive coordinator? Will Muschamp, who has been a coordinator in the NFL and national championship games, as well as the toughest venues in the SEC? Or Ruffin McNeil, where Texas Tech is the big-time for him, and it is seen as a massive improvement that Tech is ranked 58th in the country in total defense?

Let’s face it. If history has taught us anything, in order for Texas Tech to win, Texas has to be an average team that makes mistakes while Texas Tech needs to be perfect. Which one do you see happening on Saturday?

Texas will have to come to play, of course. Tech can hit you in the mouth if you aren’t looking. Michael Crabtree is more talented than anyone they’ve had in years. Harrell has run the offense going back to middle school. There is some individual talent on defense.

But the Horns won’t be caught sleeping here, nor are they an underachieving bunch. Quite the contrary. They’ve fallen behind Tech and know they can still win, and they’ve gone out to a big lead but held on against this same group.

The Red Raiders will give the Horns their best shot on Saturday, but the problem is that Texas will give them theirs as well.

Six.

Facebook Status Messages

LSU has removed defense from their interests.

North Texas is looking into a new drug enforcement program.

SMU is crying about wasting time practicing for the Navy passing attack last week.

Penn State is headed to the cupcake store.

Mike Singletary is busting out the old Ouiji board again.

Todd Reesing just threw another interception.

Chris Fowler is wondering how many stops you have to make to get to Lubbock, TX.

Phil Fulmer and Tennessee have changed their relationship status to “it’s complicated.”

Washington State has joined the group We’re Actually 30 Point Underdogs to Stanford.

On to the games...

Florida -6 v. Georgia:

Much of the talk this week has centered around that ridiculous endzone celebration that Georgia performed last year when the focus should be how well both of these teams are playing right now.

After “struggling” on offense earlier in the year, Florida has scored 114 points in their last two games. The defense has been strong all season, as they’ve allowed the opponent single digit point totals 4 times this year.

If there is a weakness in the Florida defense, it is the run defense. They’ve had some great games to make it up statistically, but they gave up 141 yards to Kentucky, 141 yards to Arkansas and 140 to Mississippi. Knowshon Moreno should be able to find some running lanes against this team.

I’m expecting a low scoring SEC game here, with Florida a little better than Georgia.

Florida 21 Georgia 17
ATS – Georgia
SU – Florida

Florida State @ Georgia Tech -2:

The Seminoles are 6-1, and unlike past recent seasons, they might stay there because of their defense, ranked 3rd nationally. Georgia Tech has a pretty decent defense themselves, ranked 12th in the country.

But who has Georgia Tech played? Jacksonville State? Mississippi State? Duke? Gardner-Webb? Yuck.

Give me the Seminoles, as they’re a little more battled tested.

Florida State 24 Georgia Tech 16
ATS – Florida State
SU – Florida State

Arkansas State @ Alabama -23.5:

The fact that I have an Arkansas State game in here tells you the quality of the match-ups here this week.

Last we heard of Arkansas State, they were upsetting Texas A&M at Kyle Field. Can they shock the nation here? No. They have some decent numbers, and Alabama has probably used this whole week practicing for LSU, but let’s not be ridiculous.

Alabama 38 Arkansas State 17
ATS – Arkansas State
SU – Alabama

Missouri -20.5 @ Baylor:

Missouri got healthy in a big way with a 58-0 win over Colorado last week. Baylor has been better under first year head coach Art Briles, but Missouri is desperate to make up some room in the Big 12 and the national at-large picture.

Missouri 49 Baylor 17
ATS – Missouri
SU – Missouri

Nebraska @ Oklahoma -22:

Ah, Nebraska and Oklahoma. Those of us older than 27 know this as a big rivalry game that has been hampered somewhat by the move to the Big 12 scheduling.

Oklahoma has been giving up yards in bunches, as they gave up 438 to Texas, 491 to Kansas and 550 to Kansas State.

Enough for the upset? No, but Joe Ganz is a good one that should be able to keep the Cornhuskers respectable.

Oklahoma 45 Nebraska 28
ATS – Nebraska
SU – Oklahoma

Texas -4 @ Texas Tech:

You can really just cut and paste any game analysis from the past several years here.

Can Tech stop the passing of ________? __________ is going to throw for some yards against Texas, that’s just how their offense works. But can Tech stop anyone enough to keep scoring? Just mention the night game at Lubbock here and you are set.

Texas won this game last year by controlling the clock and the ball. They ran 91 plays to Tech’s 55, eventually wearing down the Tech defense while keeping Graham Harrell off the field.

Texas is poised to do the same this year. The Longhorns have five scoring drives of at least 90 yards this season, and 12 more in the 80+ yard range. As a reference point, the 2005 team, the most prolific in college football history, had 4 drives of 90 yards or longer, and just 3 in the 80 yard range.

On defense, the Red Raiders are better, but how are they going to stop Colt McCoy and the Texas offense? They do rank a healthy 25th in the nation in sacks, but only 105th in tackles for losses, 98th in pass defense and gave up 341 yards passing to the likes of Eastern Washington and nearly 500 yards to Nevada.

They rank 10th in the country in turnover margin, but that is a bit skewed as well, as they are +8 against SMU and Kansas while just +1 against the rest of their competition.

They’re a little more balanced on offense than the past few years, but still aren’t don’t run the ball as Missouri, Oklahoma and certainly Oklahoma State, who Texas has more or less contained in the last three weeks.

And don’t you have to feel a little good about things if it comes down to the kicking game?

This one will require the full focus of the Longhorns, and I think we get it. Texas is 42-5 in Mack Brown’s tenure against Texas teams (those five losses are by a combined 28 points, by the way), and I don’t see the letdown coming here….no matter what the national media pundits say.

They were never history majors, anyhow.

Texas 51 Texas Tech 37
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick



For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Bailout the Blackout t-shirts.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Come and Take It


The Horns win another close one against Oklahoma State. A pessimist might look at the game and see Texas had some things exposed, but I choose to look at it as Texas can beat a Top 10 team when they aren't perfect, which they certainly weren't on Saturday.

But the Horns are still #1 in the BCS by a wide margin, and if you are #1 you don't have to play perfect games to stay that way.

Kudos to Oklahoma State, by the way. I gave them very little credit in this space last week, and they proved me wrong (yes, it does happen). I can easily see them running the table the rest of the way. They have to go to Lubbock, but get Oklahoma at home and two very winnable games against Iowa State and Colorado mixed in.

They deserved the standing ovation that the DKR crowd gave them on Saturday.

Next up for the Horns are the Texas Tech Red Raiders, and we all know how tough of a game that will be. ESPN's College Football Gameday will be making its first ever trip to Lubbock as the #1 Horns and the #7 Red Raiders clash. This game will likely decide the Big 12 South, and the winner takes an inside lane to the national championship game as well.

But make no mistake, the Horns will be ready. This isn't 1998 or even 2002 where the Red Raiders might catch the Horns napping.

Who wants some?

Thursday, October 23, 2008

The LM Blog: Oklahoma State preview

Go read Drew's preview of Texas/Oklahoma State here.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

The Week That Will Be (10.25.08)

Last Week: 5-1 ATS 6-0 SU
For the Year: 30-17-1 (.638) ($1130) ATS 41-7 (.854) SU


What we learned last week: We learned that perhaps you should leave the state of Utah more than once before mid-October if you want to entertain thoughts of crashing the BCS party. This is the problem with letting these non-BCS teams into the mix, there is no way a Texas, or Alabama, or Florida lose in Fort Worth…We learned that Alabama might not lose in Fort Worth, but a 4 point win over Mississippi and a 3 point win over Kentucky wouldn’t exactly have me reserving a room in Miami if I were a Tide fan. Alabama is young, and do a bunch of things well, but nothing great, which will catch up to them at some point….We learned that Javon Ringer doesn’t need to be making any dinner reservations in New York on Heisman ceremony weekend after throwing up 67 yards in his biggest game of the year Saturday afternoon…We learned that Mike Sherman shouldn’t be making any reservations past this year, period. The score was a lot closer than most predicted, but 2 points in the second half of a very winnable game over a highly ranked opponent won’t do your resume any favors. It was so bad that they are now 3 point underdogs to 2-5 Iowa State…We learned that Kansas might be as good as they were last season, but they aren’t going anywhere, and a lot of contenders would kill to have Todd Reesing as their quarterback…And finally we learned that we still don’t miss Chase Daniel in these parts. We’ll take Colt McCoy and run with it, thanks.

Anyhow…

Seven down, five to go.

It sounds so simple, until you realize that part of the seven was Florida Atlantic, UTEP and Rice. And oh yeah, an extra two games will probably be added to that schedule if we get where we want to get to. So seven more games.

So halfway. I think we can agree that we underestimated this team this year, and that if we get the effort and focus for every game the rest of the way, they have a very good chance of getting to where they want to be.

Seven. The name of a pretty good Brad Pitt movie. The number of Mickey Mantle, and perhaps the name of George Costanza’s daughter out there somewhere. The number of deadly sins. Designer jeans. The magic number on slot machines.

A magic number indeed. In baseball, teams talk about “magic numbers” when they are counting down the end of the regular season, and their magic number is a combination of how many wins they need and how many losses they need by their closest opposition to win the division or wild card.

But in college football, without a playoff system, the Longhorns now have a magic number of 7.

Jordan Shipley said this week that they don’t give you awards for being 7-0, but go 7-0 again this year, and we’re talking about a special team, and a special program.

And does anyone want to bet against this group of guys getting the job done? The chemistry and focus that this team appears to have is truly special.

Focus. We’re rolling downhill now.

But now it is time for the fourth annual HornMafia Mid-Season Awards.

The Chaps Girl Award (MVP) – Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

Duh. You know you have made it big when everywhere you turn they are talking about your girlfriend. And he’s having a pretty good season on the field, too with a nearly 2 to 1 ratio of incompletions to touchdowns. Ridiculous.

The Herschel Walker Award (Freshman of the Year) – Terrelle Pryor, QB, Ohio State

The numbers aren’t outstanding (59/90 653 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT; 411 rushing yards), but he’s 5-0 as a starter and has Ohio State poised to get their ass kicked by a SEC team in a bowl team once again.

The Eric Taylor Award (Coach of the Year) – Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State

Sure, they haven’t played much, but the Cowboys are off to a 7-0 start in who knows how long. Sure, they’ll probably finish with 3 losses, but even that is progress for OSU. And no, I’m not going to make any MAN jokes. It’s tired.

The John Blake Award (Worst Coach of the Year) – Paul Wulff, Washington State

Wulff came from FCS’s Eastern Washington, and I’m not sure that Washington State could beat Eastern Washington this year. The Cougars have given up 60 points four times this year, and are 118th (out of 119) in scoring offense and 118th in scoring defense. Texas A&M is scrambling to schedule Washington State before the end of the year.

The Northwestern Award (Surprise of the Year) – Ball State

Ball State entered the Associated Press Top 25 for the first time in their 82 year history this month, as the Cardinals are 7-0 and now 20th in the BCS standings. And yes, the Aggies are officially jealous of Ball State.

The Clemson Award (Disappointment of the Year) – West Virginia

The Mountaineers returned QB Pat White and RB Noel Devine, but early season losses to East Carolina and Colorado leave them unranked. Even their wins have been unimpressive (beating hapless Syracuse by 11, beating equally hapless Rutgers by 7). Bob Stoops has been talked off the ledge numerous times for losing to this outfit last season.

The We’re Not Relevant Award – Texas A&M

The Aggies lose to Arkansas State at the beginning of the year, and ESPN’s list of big upsets for the week doesn’t even list it. Yikes. The Aggies have now been dropped by the Houston Chronicle, who will now cover them with a pool reporter. Yes, we have lost to this team two years in a row, but we’re not talking about us right now.

The We Need Barack Obama Award – Michigan

Michigan desperately needs to change something, as a home loss to Toledo coupled with a home loss to Appalachian State last year have Wolverines fans wondering just how in the hell they were being considered for BCS bowls in the not so distant past. Now you have Michigan players guaranteeing wins over Michigan State, who they have beaten 8 of the last 10 times. Michigan fans hopey hope that the Rich Rodriguez era isn’t an epic failure.

The Drunken Tailgater Award – Leonard and Pope (tie)

Leonard was thrown out of Scholz’s for “harassing the barstaff” when he was sitting at the table for most of the night, while Pope destroyed my tailgate chair and proceeded to pick it up and throw it down to the ground like a professional wrestler. This ends Jeremy’s three year run as Drunken Tailgater at the mid-way point.

The Don Draper Award – Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas

Don Draper is a man’s man, and Brian Orakpo will bench press you and me put together. Orakpo could probably drink while he is at work and still wreck havoc on opposing quarterbacks.

The What The Hell is Your Problem? Award – Colorado, Iowa State

Colt McCoy, Texas. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma. Graham Harrell, Texas Tech. Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State. Robert Griffin, Baylor. Jarrod Johnson, Texas A&M. Chase Daniel, Missouri. Todd Reesing, Kansas. Joe Ganz, Nebraska. Josh Freeman, Kansas State. How many teams would kill to have any one of these guys at quarterback? Get with the program, CU and ISU.

The Texas Karma Award – Tim Brewster, Minnesota

The former Texas coach (and father of Texas safety Nolan Brewster) has the Gophers at 6-1 (after going 1-11 last year), with the lone loss coming in Columbus to Ohio State. With no Penn State on the schedule, Minnesota could be looking at a 10 win season, which might get Brewster some looks at the bigger schools out there. You think the Aggies could have hired him?

The Let’s Just Pretend This Never Happened Award – Todd Dodge, North Texas

North Texas is 0-7, have given up 77 points to Rice and 59 to Louisiana-Lafayette, and Dodge’s high paced offense is 113th in the nation. Meanwhile, his old stomping grounds, Southlake Carroll, actually lost a regular season game this month. Oh, the humanity.

Facebook Status Messages

Dabo Swinney joined the group I Have a Retarded Name and I think I am Will Muschamp.

T Boone Pickens is sad that $186 million doesn’t go as far as it used to.

The Pac-10 is trying to get Texas A&M in the conference.

Houston Nutt is trying not to use the phone this week in Fayetteville.

SEC Officiating is thinking of hiring Tim Donaghy and Ray Lewis.

Roy Williams is glad to be in DALLAS! Sunday 11:14 AM

Roy Williams is oh shit. Sunday 3:45 PM

The Guys Smoking Marijuana in the Creek are glad that the LMFZ keg wasn’t 2 feet to the left.

On to the games...

Georgia @ LSU -2:

Who really knows what either of these teams are about? In their biggest games of the season, both have fallen on their face. Georgia lost 41-30 to Alabama (after being down 31-0), and then LSU lost to Florida 51-21.

Both have okay to good offenses, and Georgia has a slightly better defense. But this game is in Baton Rouge, where the Bulldogs haven’t won since 1998.

I’m inclined to pick Georgia because of the better defense and better quarterback, but the game being in Baton Rouge and Les Miles somehow being a better coach than Mark Richt has me leaning towards LSU.


LSU 24 Georgia 17
ATS – LSU
SU – LSU

Alabama -6.5 @ Tennessee:

Tennessee has been getting hammered by their fans and the media all season, but Alabama hasn’t won in Knoxville since 2002, it’s at night in a stadium where fans know this is their biggest game of the year, and the Volunteers have a pretty damn decent defense, 11th in the nation in total defense coming into this one.

Good enough for the upset? Probably not. Alabama schooled the Volunteers last year in Tuscaloosa 41-17, and Tide fans are probably letting Nick Saban know this week that Phil Fulmer is widely recognized as the person that ratted them out to the NCAA and got them on probation. They would like nothing better than to embarrass Fulmer in what could be his last game against the Tide.

Alabama 27 Tennessee 20
ATS – Alabama
SU – Alabama

Penn State -2.5 @ Ohio State:

The Buckeyes have only lost one game at The Shoe at night…

But it’s about to be two. These teams give up about the same yardage, but Penn State and their “Spread HD” offense is averaging 160 more yards than Ohio State. This Ohio State defense will be the best Penn State sees all season, but Penn State just has too many weapons for an Ohio State team that is winning…but barely (until last week).

Penn State 31 Ohio State 21
ATS – Penn State
SU – Penn State

Texas Tech @ Kansas -1.5:

The fact that the #6 team in the country is an underdog to the #18 team tells you what Vegas thinks about Texas Tech…good, but living on borrowed time.

Their offense, while statistically good, just doesn’t seem as potent as years past, and the defense is well, Texas Tech. Kansas has the defense to put pressure on Harrell, the question is whether anyone out there can cover Tech’s receivers.

I think Tech gets caught napping the week before a big match-up with Texas.

Kansas 38 Texas Tech 34
ATS – Kansas
SU – Kansas

Oklahoma -19.5 @ Kansas State:

Nobody has stopped the Sooner offense this year, it is just a matter of keeping the ball away, getting timely stops and having enough offense to keep up.

KSU quarterback Josh Freeman is quietly having a very good year, ranked 21st in the nation in passing efficiency and 16th in the country in total offense. So we know that KSU has a somewhat decent enough offense to score some points on OU.

But do they have the defense? In a word, no.

The Wildcats are giving up 429 yards a game, and let the Aggies roll up 540 on them. Perhaps if this game was at night the Wildcats might stand a chance ala Texas in 2006, but it’s not.

Oklahoma 48 Kansas State 24
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Oklahoma State @ Texas -13:

And Texas, for the third straight week, is involved in the best game of the week.

As you’ve heard numerous times already, Colt McCoy is just putting up silly numbers this season. Mack mentioned in his press conference last week that at this point last season, McCoy had 160 completions. This year, he has 160 completions. In 44 less attempts.

Want more gaudy stats? In Texas home games this season, McCoy has 12 touchdown passes and 14 incompletions.

Read that again.

McCoy’s efficiency has propelled an offense that some were wondering if it would struggle all season into a juggernaut. 11 different players have scored touchdowns for the Longhorns this year. Both Quan Cosby and Jordan Shipley are on pace to get 80 receptions…Quan might get 100.

Oklahoma State has a pretty damn good offense themselves. The Cowboys are 4th in total offense and 7th in scoring offense. Running back Kendall Hunter is 6th in the nation in rushing. Quarterback Zac Robinson is 3rd in the country in passing efficiency. So the Cowboys are a rushing team, stop the run and you win, right? Wide receiver Dez Bryant is 2nd in the country in receiving yards per game and has 13 total touchdowns this year (11 receiving and 2 punt returns).

There is some question about the level of competition for Oklahoma State, but this team put up 594 yards of offense on the Longhorns last year…they know they can move the ball.

But I’m about to go against a lot of what I just said up there and tell you this…if Texas contains OSU’s rushing offense, we win this one going away. Texas is giving up a ridiculous 48 yards per game on the ground, and really, do you think they’ll be intimidated by Oklahoma State after playing Oklahoma and Missouri in consecutive weeks?

Hold OSU on the ground to around the 150-200 yard marker…and give up the 66 yards you gave up to Jeremy Maclin last week to Dez Bryant this week…and the Horns win going away.

Because Oklahoma State isn’t going to stop us. They gave up 390 passing yards to Chase Daniel. 400 yards of offense to the Aggies. 416 to Troy. 483 to Houston.

Horns get 450 yards and roll in front of a home crowd.

Texas 41 Oklahoma State 17
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick



For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for the Lauren Conrad after-party.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Is it the 1960's again?

Those of us out there (myself included) that think it is good for college football when the traditional powerhouses are playing well are happy this week, as the first BCS standings of 2008 have been released, and the Top 5 read like this:

1. Texas .9958
2. Alabama .9446
3. Penn State .9232
4. Oklahoma .8270
5. USC .8270

Full BCS rankings can be found here.

You would swear that Darrell Royal, Bear Bryant and Joe Paterno are still coaching. Oh.

The schedule doesn't get any easier this week for Texas as Oklahoma State heads to town, but despite their recent troubles with OSU, if the Longhorns continue to play like they did last night, it won't matter who lines up on the opposite side.

My new motto for the rest of the year:

"Who wants some?"

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

The Week That Will Be (10.18.08)

Last Week: 3-3 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 25-16-1 (.610) ($740) ATS 35-7 (.833) SU


What we learned last week: We learned that if you followed my Georgia/Tennessee pick, you have no house, but if you’re a Longhorn fan you probably don’t care about that right now. How Georgia was ever ranked #1 is beyond me…They’re still looking for the truck that ran over LSU the other night. Giving up 265 yards rushing to a team that is still only averaging 193 after Saturday doesn’t bode well for LSU, and nobody in the SEC is going to feel sorry for them…That truck also made its way up to Madison, Wisconsin, where the Badgers got run over by Penn State, who is looking to send Joe Paterno to the grave on a good note…We learned that Texas Tech is very lucky to still be undefeated, as Graham Harrell throws for a very pedestrian 284 yards against Nebraska. Perhaps Tech spent all week practicing for the formidable Aggies…We learned that perhaps Missouri has trouble with the spotlight, as they once again falter in a prime-time national game. Chase Daniel is good, but he can be rattled, which makes him the second best quarterback in this conference right now, right behind….Colt McCoy. Now say it like Brent Musberger “Colt McCoy.” Fun, eh? Texas fans are having a lot of fun right now, as the Longhorns not only have a nice hold over their chief rival, but they’re also ranked #1 in the regular season for the first time since 1984. Over/Under on the number of shots of Matthew McConaughey on the sidelines Saturday night? 4.5.

Anyhow…

My hand slammed down on the snooze button, stopping the worst noise I had heard all weekend outside of Boomer Sooner. I turned over and nestled into the cloud-like mattress, enjoying the comfort of black-out curtains and quite possibly the softest pillow known to man.

As I got over the annoyance of the alarm clock barging through my much needed sleep, a smile came upon my face as I looked around the room and realized it wasn’t a dream. We had just beaten the #1 team in the country, and oh yeah that team was the hated Oklahoma Sooners.

I threw my legs over the side of the bed and wandered over to the window, opening the curtains and seeing the dejected Sooners filing out of the hotel, making the long 188 mile drive back to Oklahoma with the realization that their dominance over the Longhorns and the national scene was officially over.

After a quick shower and checking out of the hotel, the fiancée and I headed out for brunch at the famous Dallas restaurant Mia’s, receiving “We’re #1” text messages along the way.

Nestled into a rather un-descript area of Dallas that you won’t find on any travel brochures, Mia’s is most famously known as the place where Jerry Jones and Jimmy Johnson were snapped eating dinner before Jerry Jones shocked the NFL world by buying the Dallas Cowboys and replacing long-time legendary coach Tom Landry with Johnson, who had a collegiate dynasty of his own at the University of Miami.


Something tells me Jerry took Chan Gailey to Taco Cabana.

Anyhow, as I strode through the restaurant, which won’t win any architectural awards but it doesn’t matter when you have brisket tacos like this, we were seated at a table right along Lemmon Avenue. As we were served Diet Cokes in cans and I looked around for Ivan Maisel scrambling to take my picture at Mia’s, I saw it.

An autographed picture of Pat Morita. Mr. Miyagi for those of you less versed in 1980’s classic cinema.

Trying to get your fiancée to take a picture of a picture in a crowded restaurant doesn’t always go over so well, for future reference.

We went through the rest of the day, watching the wretched performance the Cowboys through up against the Arizona Cardinals, and then made the long trek home to Austin.

Somewhere between Hillsboro and Waco, we saw it.

An antique car. Yellow. Wax on, wax off.

Like the drunk chick at the party that forgets the social norms and stares at you through glassy eyes with what she thinks is a “come hither” look but really just looks like she stubbed her toe, the intentions couldn’t be any more clear, could they?

These Longhorns, and specifically Colt McCoy = Daniel LaRusso.

Colt McCoy and the Longhorns enjoyed a stellar beginning to the 2006 season, when it appeared that they were a cinch to repeat as Big 12 champions and go to another BCS bowl game. But then one night in Manhattan, Kansas they ran into Johnny Lawrence, and they were shown no mercy by the Wildcats that night or the Aggies the game after that.

Johnny made the Longhorns life hell in 2007, as Kansas State once again tripped up the Horns, as did Oklahoma and Texas A&M. Then Mr. Miyagi came to their rescue.

As I touched on last week, Will Muschamp and Major Applewhite were brought in to reverse the tide, to stop the senseless losses to the Wildcats and Aggies of the world, and make the Longhorns a tougher team, both physically and mentally.

The Longhorns went to work. And not work in Spring and Summer. And not after a nice breakfast. Their waxing on and waxing off was nearly 100 percent participation in off-season workouts that began at the ungodly hour of 6 AM. Their painting a fence was several recruits (among them phenom safety Blake Gideon) registering early in the Spring semester so that they could hit the ground running. Their sanding the floor was seniors on the team taking on a leadership role, as many of them were old enough to have sniffed a national championship run in 2005, but young enough that now they wanted hardware that they could truly call their own.

Through the training in the Karate Kid, Daniel LaRusso not only learns karate from his teacher, but also learns life lessons, such as balance and the importance of not only physical strength, but the strength of the mind as well.

Colt McCoy went to work. Knowing that the Longhorns would enter this season without an established running back, and disappointed in his performance in 2007, McCoy not only bulked up in the weight room, but he also spent as much time as he could in the film room, strengthening his mind, knowing that you can’t win in the Big 12 on talent alone.

Not unlike Daniel LaRusso in the All Valley Karate Tournament, the Longhorns went through the beginning of the 2008 season easily, but everywhere they turned, they heard the criticism.

“When are they going to play someone with a pulse?” “UTEP isn’t exactly Missouri.” “What is going to happen when they play Oklahoma?”

The Cotton Bowl was at the middle of the karate mat, where the Longhorns would earn respect and credibility if they won…if anyone actually gave them a chance to win. College Gameday’s Lee Corso and Kirk Herbstreit acted incredulous that anyone but the Sooners could win this ballgame. Every writer in the Dallas Morning News picked Oklahoma to come out on top, and most of them picked the Sooners to cover the 6.5 point spread as well.

The Sooners jumped out to a 7-0 lead in a drive that took just over three minutes, and while the Longhorns jumped right out there and cut the lead to 7-3, it appeared that Oklahoma was going to roll the Horns when a pass intended for OU tight end Jermaine Gresham ricocheted off his hands into the waiting arms of his teammate Ryan Broyles, and just like that the Sooners led 14-3.

The Sooners had the Longhorns on the ropes. The same stadium that saw the Longhorns lose 5 in a row earlier in the decade seemed like it was going to be the site of yet another Longhorn season going down the drain. Bob Stoops owned Mack Brown, and the Sooners were about to sweep the leg.

And then, it happened.

Oklahoma kicked off, and Longhorn WR Jordan Shipley received the ball at the left hashmark. He ran straight ahead. Chris Ogbonnaya and Eddie Jones opened a huge hole, and the only thing Shipley saw was green grass and crimson and cream fans in the stands. Touchdown, Texas.

The Texas Longhorns are gonna fight!

The Longhorns were the team with the surprise gameplan. The Longhorns were the most physical team. And the Longhorns were the more mentally tough team.

By the time Chris Ogbonnaya delivered the crane kick near the end of the ballgame, there was a seismic shift not only in this rivalry, but also in the national college football mindset.

There would be no body bags on this day.

But there will also be no end credits. Sure, Mack Brown and the rest of the coaching staff will beam much like Mr. Miyagi, but there are more battles to be won, and a hell of a lot of football left.

But know this. The Texas Longhorns are the #1 team in the nation in the regular season for the first time since 1984. The Horns always have a bit of a target on their back, but now they are the top dog, the one that stood up to Cobra Kai and came out victorious, and the road doesn’t get any easier from here.

But this team is different. They are not as talented as the 2005 squad, but they made up for lack of talent with mental toughness and good old fashioned chemistry. And one other thing.

Balance. Balance on the football field. Balance in the weight room. Balance in the film room. Balance in the mind.

Now go fight for the honor of #1.

Facebook Status Messages

Mike Knall has sent you a piece of flair! An 2009 Academy Award! Send a piece of flair back to Mike!

Colt McCoy has joined the group Chief Big Nuts.

Tommy Bowden has cancelled the event Family Reunion at Clemson/FSU.

The Auburn Alumni Group is wearing a big brown bag on their heads.

Tony Franklin is very happy.

Pac Man Jones is making it rain in the future unemployment line.

Roy Williams has joined the group First Plane out of Detroit.

Texas A&M is glad their games aren’t on television.

Rich Rodriguez is looking forward to the end of the season.

Mike Stoops has joined the group Defensive Coordinators but Not Head Coaches.

Sam Bradford just realized we lost this weekend.

Chase Daniel is a class act for wearing #25.

On to the games...

BYU @ TCU (PK):

Well this was going to be an upset special, but the line keeps falling from an already miniscule 2 points. So why is a Top 10 team in the country now a pick ‘em against TCU?

Because:

A.) It’s a Thursday night game. Outside of Wake Forest/Clemson last week, I believe the underdog has won every game on Thursday night football this year.

B.) BYU has yet to play a team with a defense. UNI is FCS. Washington is 118th in total defense. UCLA is 75th. Wyoming is 38th (but 95th in scoring defense). Utah State is 105th. New Mexico is 69th. TCU is 1st.

C.) Because 69% of the money is on BYU at covers.com. Prime upset territory.

D.) TCU held BYU to 27 points in Provo last year.

The only question is whether or not TCU can come up with enough offense. Their passing game has been beyond horrible, but they do have a better than average rushing attack.

Another Top 10 falls.

TCU 31 BYU 28
ATS – TCU
SU – TCU

Mississippi @ Alabama -13:

This one has been a close series of late, as Alabama has won the last three in the series by 3 points each time. Both teams are coming off bye weeks, so they should both be well rested for this match-up.

Ol Miss has the defensive line to give Alabama fits, only giving up 112 yards per game on the ground, and Jevan Snead has been more than adequate for the Rebels.

Alabama had a lackluster performance against an underrated Kentucky team, but that will probably be enough motivation to come out roaring in this one…but I’m not sure they have enough offense to get a blowout.

Alabama 34 Mississippi 24
ATS – Mississippi
SU – Alabama

Ohio State -3.5 @ Michigan State:

Michigan State hasn’t beaten Ohio State since 1999, but this year reasons to be their best chance in a while with Javon Ringer 2nd in the nation in rushing.

Ohio State is winning games in their typical, plodding style, but there is talk that some on the team are upset that Terrelle Pryor is getting all of the snaps at quarterback.

It’s about time for Michigan State to make their annual fall to the middle of the Big 10 pack. Ringer is good, but Senior QB Brian Hoyer looks like the worst QB in this match-up.

Ohio State 23 Michigan State 14
ATS – Ohio State
SU – Ohio State

Texas Tech -21 @ Texas A&M:

The Red Raiders let us down in 2006, needing a Graham Harrell bomb with under a minute to go to beat the Aggies, but Tech has won 10 of 13 in this series (which makes the Aggies’ “We’re not rivals” mantra even more amusing).

Lost in the horrible Aggie team of this year is the play of Jerrod Johnson, who is completing 60 percent of his passes and has a very respectable TD/INT ratio of 11 to 4. The Aggies are also playing pretty good pass defense, only giving up 162 yards through the air on the season.

I’d really like to see a blowout here, but the Aggies have played this game well at Kyle Field, losing by 4 in 2006, winning by 7 in 2004 and losing by 1 in 2002. They’ll be fired up to play Tech, who outside of a few quarters against KSU hasn’t looked that impressive against teams not known for their NCAA basketball tournament runs.

Texas Tech 41 Texas A&M 28
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – Texas Tech

Kansas @ Oklahoma -19.5:

Oklahoma hasn’t lost in Norman since John Blake was there it feels like. Kansas hasn’t been nearly as impressive as they were last season. Okay, so we’re pretty damn sure that Oklahoma is going to win, but by how much?

The Jayhawks have been struggling to run the ball all year, and it isn’t going to start in Norman. The Sooners only give up 107 yards per game on the ground, and that stat is inflated from the Texas game last week. The Jayhawks do have a decent defense, but did let Iowa State throw for 268 on them, let Sam Houston throw for 340, and let South Florida throw for 338.

Sam Bradford is about 10 times better than those guys combined.

Oklahoma 48 Kansas 24
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Missouri @ Texas -6:

Another week, another epic match-up for the Longhorns.

Oklahoma State gave the blueprint to beating Missouri last week, getting enough pressure on Chase Daniel without giving up too many of your front seven. If the Longhorns are able to get a rush without blitzing (like they were able to do with enough success against Oklahoma), then the Tigers will be in trouble.

And at the risk of sounding like Norm Hitzges here….stop the middle screen. Stop the middle screen. Stop the middle screen. Stop the middle screen. Stop the middle screen. Stop the middle screen.

Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin were DROOLING after watching the OU film where Manuel Johnson repeatedly ran the middle screen for effectiveness (of course it helps when you have linemen 5 yards downfield, but whatever). I really think you have to look into keeping Jared Norton or Rashad Bobino in the middle of the field just to take that play away.

On offense, get ready for Colt McCoy to have a HUGE game. Juice Williams, who will never be confused with a passing quarterback, threw for 451 yards and 5 touchdowns on Missouri’s pass defense, which ranks 113th in the nation. SE Missouri State threw for 250 and 1 TD. Nevada threw for 180 and 1 TD. Buffalo threw for 237 and 2 TD. Nebraska threw for 293 and 2 TD. Oklahoma State threw for 215 and 2 TD.

Mack Brown said in his Monday press conference that Missouri’s defense blitzes an astounding 50% of the time. If Colt McCoy gets time in those blitzes (and he will), school records might be set.

And then there are the intangibles.

Missouri will be pissed off. They’ll play a lot better than last week. But how good are they? They certainly aren’t as good as OU, so if Texas keeps up the intensity and the focus, Missouri shouldn’t be a problem.

In football, right after a turnover, one of the favorite tactics of an offensive coordinator is to catch the defense in a down mode and throw the ball deep on the very next play. Throw the ball deep. Not literally (although that could certainly help), but come out and be aggressive. Hit Missouri in the mouth just like you hit Oklahoma in the mouth. I guarantee you they aren’t as tough.

And THIS is the game where those North End Zone renovations pay off. Be loud, Texas fans. It’s not often you get to see your team as #1 against a ranked conference opponent in a national broadcast game. It’s going to be a hell of a ride.

Look for McCoy to solidify his Heisman run, and for Missouri’s porous defense to catch them in a second straight game.

Texas 41 Missouri 31
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick



For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for we’re number one foam fingers.

Monday, October 13, 2008

How Sweet It Is


A victory over a huge rival on a glorious Saturday afternoon, and the ensuing game of dominoes lands the Longhorns at the coveted #1 spot in the polls.

The first BCS poll comes out next Sunday, right after the Horns play Missouri as the #1 team in the regular season for the first time since 1984.

A LOT of football to be played, but it's enjoyable to have destiny in your own hands.

Get your Horns up.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

The LM Blog: TX/OU Preview

Drew's take on the Red River Rivalry, and a CANNOT miss excerpt from former Longhorn great Stoney Clark, can be found here.

Go read it. Now.

The Week That Will Be Red River Rivalry 2008 Edition

Last Week: 4-2 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 22-13-1 (.629) ($770) ATS 30-6 (.833) SU


What we learned last week: We learned that perhaps Vanderbilt isn’t that bad after all, but keep in mind that Auburn isn’t exactly 2004 Auburn and there is just something strange about seeing a big game played at a place that holds 33,000 people, but congrats to the COMMODORES for a big win…We learned that perhaps Terrelle Pryor has some worth this year after all. The overall numbers weren’t great, but he got the job done in a hostile territory, which is what we all want out of our quarterbacks…They were a bit like a lawnmower that hadn’t been used in a few months, but once USC got going, they did what they did best, trounce a good team like they were supposed to do…Speaking of beating a good team like they were supposed to, Texas Tech proved that perhaps they are better than they have been. I’m not sure other Tech teams go out on the road and perform like that. How fun is this conference this year?...Chase Daniel spit-shined the Heisman Trophy this week with a blowout win over Nebraska. Just 52 points away from the shut-out, Pelini. Jeremy Maclin is f’ing ridiculous….If Colorado was a barometer game for the Longhorns, a high pressure system moved over Boulder Saturday night. The Longhorns still have to find a running back that they know can get them 4 yards on first down, but who needs a running back with the way Colt McCoy is playing?

Anyhow…

I don’t need any melodramatic intro to this game.

The Cotton Bowl. Corn dogs. Beer in wax cups.

The tunnel.

Quote:
"All I can remember is this massive stare down of players, almost like a heavyweight championship fight," Keith Jackson, former Oklahoma tight end


Quote:
'Walking down the tunnel and standing next to the guys you're about to face on the field is awesome. Then you hear the (guns) shooting and you hear the crowd " half is screaming for OU and the other half is booing. It gives you a rush.'
- Josh Norman, Former Sooner


And that was before they added 16,000 seats.



If those few paragraphs don’t get you fired up, you’re either not a Texas football fan or you only witnessed the 2000-2004 games and you gave up sports forever, which would be understandable.

But, if you still need a little help (what the hell is wrong with you?) watch this. Watch it a few times. I’ll still be here.

”We own the Cotton Bowl!”

Shivers? Chills? Did you just run through your wall like the Kool-Aid mascot?

Yeah. It is Texas/OU week, baby.

I read in the great Adam Jones’s column today that 10 times since 1947 both of these teams have entered the game ranked in the Top 5. Four of those games have been played in the last 8 years, including Saturday’s game.

This has always been a game of streaks. The most famous streak in Texas history is the improbable one of Peter Gardere, who beat a ranked Oklahoma team four years in a row, but otherwise enjoyed a rather unremarkable career on the Forty Acres.

But going back to the mid 1900’s, legendary Oklahoma coach Bud Wilkinson won 9 of 10 games against Texas at one point in his career, to which Texas responded by hiring a young Oklahoma coach named Darrell Royal. Royal turned the tables on OU, winning 12 of 13 games during one stretch.

Then along came Barry Switzer in the 70’s, who ran Darrell Royal out of football with his outlaw ways, and Oklahoma rose to the top of the college football world, while Texas once again had to worry about beating Baylor every year.

Saint Peter rescued the Longhorns in the early 90’s, but both teams went through tail-spins in the mid-nineties. Then Texas hired Mack Brown, who early in his career was an OU assistant coach, and Texas appeared poised to make another run in the rivalry.

Then Bob Stoops came along.

Brown beat Stoops in the first meeting between the two in 1999, but then one of the most painful moments in Texas history came about as Texas lost five in a row until Vince Young saved them in the national title run in 2005 and OU had a WR playing QB in the 2006 game. Last year, Oklahoma again came out on top in a hard fought 28-21 game where the outcome was in doubt for most of the ballgame.

So what does that meandering, quick jaunt through the history of Texas/OU tell us?

Youth wins.

Young Wilkinson beat old stodgy Texas. Young Royal turned the tables. Young Switzer did what Royal and his replacement Fred Akers better. Young Stoops beat Mack Brown with fresh new schemes and by being one of the first to use the spread offense which would become a staple in college football in this decade.

Hell, Vince Young turned the tables on Stoops.

Texas fought complacency for a good two years after their national title, until finally the team turned over a new leaf and brought a new attitude to its (what’s up now Drew) Holiday Bowl match-up with Arizona State last year. Texas was the more aggressive team. Texas was the hungrier team. Texas was the angrier team.

So what did the Longhorns do in the off-season? Did they rest on their laurels and pat themselves on the back? Nope.

They fed the fire.

Fiery defensive wizard Will Muschamp was brought in. Legendary fan favorite Major Applewhite was brought back.

A nice injection of youth.

In every Big 12 championship game this decade, Texas or Oklahoma has represented the South, but it is no secret that Oklahoma’s 5-1 edge in Big 12 titles in the Brown/Stoops era eats at the hide of Texas fans.

But ask Oklahoma fans, and they are still nervous about a team that can look so dominating at times, and so beatable at others. Losses to Kansas State, Colorado, TCU and four straight losses in BCS bowl games have Oklahoma fans wondering what the hell is going on in Norman.

2008 appears to be a cross roads in this rivalry. Win this ballgame, and Mack Brown is 4-6 against Bob Stoops, a respectable record given the run that this Sooner team has had. Texas would have also won 3 out of 4 in the series, a nice start to a new streak. Lose, and he’s 3-7 and Texas fans are wondering if 2005 and 2006 were just down years for the Sooners.

So can Muschamp and Applewhite be the duo that turns this rivalry, and by association the Big 12 and the national picture in the favor of the Longhorns?

Muschamp has coached against Stoops one time in his career, in the 2004 Sugar Bowl, where Muschamp’s LSU defense hounded Oklahoma quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Jason White into a 13 for 37 passing effort where he threw for 102 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. The Sooners also ran the ball 33 times that day, averaging 1.6 yards per rush. Advantage Muschamp.

And Applewhite? Yes, he’s technically the running backs coach at Texas, but he’s also known for taking Longhorn quarterback Colt McCoy under his wing and possibly saving his college career. McCoy, who defined the term “sophomore slump” last season, enters this week with legitimate Heisman buzz. As McCoy goes, so do the Longhorns, and this year Texas fans are more than happy to take that and run with it.

But more importantly, Applewhite knows this game. He’s been in a shouting match with the drivers of the Sooner Schooner. He knows what it is like to run down the tunnel and hear boos and then reach the 50 yard line and hear Texas Fight and an eager Texas crowd. He knows that this game turns role players into heroes, and school record setters into goats.

And just like Wilkinson, Royal, Switzer and Stoops before them, Muschamp and Applewhite are damn fine coaches to boot.

In that video above, Vince Young shouts out, “We own the Cotton Bowl,” when in actuality, Texas had lost 6 of 7 games played there to that point in the decade. But, win on Saturday, and Texas will own the Cotton Bowl.

Again.

Facebook Status Messages

The University of Wisconsin Band says take the term band nerds and shove it up your…

South Florida is un-invited to the Cinderella Ball.

Ball State is invited to the Cinderella Ball.

Notre Dame is back!
Everyone but Lou Holtz says no you’re not.

Dave Lapham is driving his wife nuts by rehashing the same crap over and over.

Darrell Scott is still insignificant.

Tony Franklin has joined the group Auburn Sucks.

OJ Simpson has canceled the event Acquittal Party ‘08.

On to the games...

Tennessee @ Georgia -12.5:

The Volunteers put up a spirited effort against Illinois last week, winning 13-9…what? Northern Illinois? Seriously?

Tennessee has scored 31 points in the last three games, and Georgia has had two weeks to think about how they were embarrassed on national television by Alabama.

Bet* your house on Georgia, you’re probably going to lose it with all this bank mess anyhow.

* - Make sure you read the last sentence of this column. There is no TWTWB Bailout package

Georgia 31 Tennessee 13
ATS – Georgia
SU – Georgia

LSU @ Florida -6:

Is this line strange to anyone else? Is the Swamp worth like a 10 point home advantage?

Because I think the wrong team is favored here. Maybe Florida wins. Maybe they even win by a touchdown. But this has been a close series (no team has won by more than 13 since 2002), LSU has had two weeks off, and Florida’s offense has been iffy at best and well, LSU’s defense is LSU.

Florida 23 LSU 20
ATS – LSU
SU – Florida

Penn State -5.5 @ Wisconsin:

Penn State beat Wisconsin by 31 in Happy Valley last year, but this is a different Wisconsin team.

No, they’re really not.

Penn State 31 Wisconsin 17
ATS – Penn State
SU – Penn State

Nebraska @ Texas Tech -21:

The last time Nebraska went to Lubbock, they lost 70-10. Root canal surgeries have been less painful than that.

Nebraska seems to take one step forward and two steps back at every turn the past couple of years. They gave up 52 to Missouri last week, and yeah, it was as bad as it sounds.

Pelini might be the answer, but he’s not the answer this year.
Texas Tech 48 Nebraska 17
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Texas Tech

Oklahoma State @ Missouri -14:

This has the potential to be what they call a “barnburner.”

Missouri is 2nd in the nation in scoring offense and 3rd in total offense, while Oklahoma State is 3rd in scoring offense and 6th in total offense.

Oklahoma State has a small chance of an upset here (stranger things have happened and OSU has the offense to do it), but OSU needs to beat someone before I start throwing them out as serious contenders.

Missouri 45 Oklahoma State 34
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Missouri

Texas v. Oklahoma -6.5:

And here we go.

First you have to look at the quarterbacks. You would think that Texas has the edge here. Colt McCoy is starting his third Red River Shootout game, which is HUGE. McCoy had a good game last year, throwing for 324 yards, 2 touchdowns, but 1 very costly interception. But Sam Bradford didn’t show any freshman jitters at all last year, throwing for 244 yards and 3 touchdowns. Like most football games, the quarterback that plays the best will probably be on the winning team.

But the problem for the Horns last year, and one that has the potential to be the biggest problem for them this year, is the running game. The Longhorns have a good running game, statistically, but when your leading running back is rushing for 38 yards a game, you have some problems. Sure, you can beat OU by throwing the ball, but having a back to run down the clock with a lead would be huge.

Oklahoma has their own problems on the ground, however. Demarco Murray has been slow to recover from a knee injury sustained last season, and with the Longhorns only giving up 51 yards a game on the ground, he will be hard pressed to match the 128 yards he gained on the ground last season.

On defense, the Sooners are better statistically, but they haven’t played many offenses with a pulse. Tennessee-Chattanooga (110th in total offense in FCS), Cincinnati (35th in total offense), Washington (105th in total offense), TCU (33rd in total offense) and Baylor (42nd in total offense) won’t strike fear in anyone, but give the Sooners credit for stopping the teams they should stop. The Longhorns still lead the nation in sacks, which will get a good test with an Oklahoma offensive line that many think is the best in the nation.

If it comes down to special teams, you like the Horns’ chances. Oklahoma ranks 102nd in the nation in net punting and have been getting burned on kickoff returns this season.

I hate to be generic football man here, but the Longhorns have to force turnovers. Oklahoma hasn’t lost a fumble since a loss at Texas Tech on November 17, 2007. They have carried the ball 692 times since then. They have to be due, right? In the Texas/OU game, a turnover is tantamount to a score. Keep the pressure on Bradford, a quarterback that is not used to pressure, and see what happens.

The Longhorns have said this week that Muschamp has things that he has kept secret just for the OU game…and unlike other years where Texas coaches have said similar things, I’m expecting it to be good things.

Call it a feeling, call it being a homer, but I see Texas coming out and having a complete ballgame on Saturday which propels guys like McCoy, Shipley and Orakpo to the national stage.

Get your Horns up.

Texas 28 Oklahoma 24
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick



For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for chicken fried bacon.

Friday, October 3, 2008

The LM Blog: Colorado Preview

Check out Drew's look at Colorado here.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

The Week That Will Be (10.04.08)

Last Week: - 3-3 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: - 18-11-1 (.621) ($590) ATS 26-4 (.867) SU


What we learned last week: Auburn’s new spread offense is about as formidable as a August cold front, but I’m not really sure what that makes the abortion that is Tennessee football these days. Note to bettors the rest of the year, Auburn has to actually be able to score 6 points to be favored by 6…We learned that Mark Richt might be a fashion expert, but perhaps Georgia should have spent more time looking at film of Alabama and less time having fashion shows in the locker room. Alabama looks downright scary and has two road games the rest of the year (10/25 at Tennessee and 11/8 at LSU)…We learned that two of the nation’s best receivers actually reside in the skill position graveyard that is the Big 10. Penn State’s Derrick Williams and Illinois’s Arrelious Benn put on a show, and college football fans should take note of them for the rest of the year…We learned that Colorado can give up 259 yards rushing to a Florida State rushing attack that was last worth a damn when Warrick Dunn was on campus. West Virginia rushed for 311 the week before, leaving Texas fans drooling at the match-up…We learned that Oklahoma has no rushing attack this year (Demarco Murray doesn’t look the same coming off an injury), but it might not matter with Sam Bradford back there…And finally we learned that you can spend the day with friends, can drink some beers, can even watch some football, but nothing makes your day like kicking the crap out of Arkansas.

Anyhow…

The Big 12 finished the first month of the season with four teams in the Top 10, but as we turn the calendar to October we find ourselves entering conference play, so all of those teams get to beat up on each other. Who will rise to the top and meet in Kansas City? Who will fall to the bottom? Let’s find out…

THE DENNIS FRANCHIONE DIVISION

Iowa State Does anyone else think that Gene Chizik was bullied every day by the other members of the coaching staff and decided to take the first coaching job that came his way? Did the other coaches tie him to the goalposts and write funny comments on him? The Cyclones have no offense, no defense and no chance in hell of winning more than three games the rest of the way.

Texas A&M Oh the Aggies. It’s an embarrassment to Mack Brown’s coaching resume that he has lost to this team the last two years. The Aggies beat Army by 4 this weekend, prompting members of Texags.com to speculate that the Aggies didn’t want to embarrass Army so therefore kept the game close. I’m guessing that is what Aggies say what other teams in the country do to them. The Aggies have a somewhat easy schedule the rest of the way (they have the Iowa State/Kansas State/Colorado triumvirate out of the Big 12 North this year), but Mike Sherman looks well on his way to becoming the target of Aggie scorn in the not so distant future. And I think we all know that is not a good place to be, unless you enjoy milkmen and guys with tall boots and short haircuts giving you the finger all the time.

Baylor It’s been a while since Baylor has been the most respectable out of this group. And Baylor actually has a playmaker on offense, quarterback Robert Griffin. When is the last time that happened? And more importantly how did that happen? The same way Baylor is all of the sudden getting all of these top notch basketball recruits? Someone needs to check the players parking lot.

THE MARK MANGINO DIVISION

Kansas State What do these three teams have in common? They got a little fat and too happy and now are destined to fail. Who knows if Mangino is content, but the analogy sort of works so I’m going to run with it. Kansas State has started 3-1, but they are about due for their annual 6 game losing streak, but good for them they have the Aggies coming to town (great scheduling). And also good for them they tied up Ron Prince to a contract through 2012 at the beginning of this season. It was only a matter of time before Kent State came calling for a new coach.

Nebraska Who doesn’t hope that Bo Pelini can turn around this Cornhusker program? College football is just better when Nebraska is good, and their fans are perhaps the best in the sport. We can just do without the star running back throwing his girlfriend down the stairs bit this time. Which brings up the question, who do you think is doing better right now, Lawrence Phillips or Ray Pruitt? Pruitt did come back and play the Peach Pit After Dark and had a wife though, so my money is on him. And Thunder Collins would probably kill them both.

Colorado The Buffs are showing signs of life, but they don’t really do anything that well. In fact their only reputation is having the worst fans in the Big 12, which seemed to work out for Motley Crue, but not so much for a football team. And hey, the coaches son plays quarterback, so you just know there is nobody better for the job out there than him.

THE MIKE LEACH DIVISION

Kansas Have you heard a damn thing about the Jayhawks this year? Are we sure they’ve played a game? About the only thing I heard was when they lost to South Florida, but hey who doesn’t do that. Kansas isn’t quite as good as they were last year, and that will cost them down the stretch where they play at Oklahoma and have Texas and Texas Tech at home. Probably just as well anyhow, the Jayhawk fans don’t need to be bothered during basketball season two years in a row.

Oklahoma State One of these years Oklahoma State is going to put it all together and have a team that actually makes it to a decent bowl. This might be the year, as the Cowboys have the #1 rushing attack in the country and a very efficient Zac Robinson under center. The Cowboys do get Missouri, Texas Tech and Texas on the road, which is not only not good for season ticket sales but also not good for your football team. Okay maybe this isn’t the year.

Texas Tech Hey you remember that Tech team that could score a bunch of points but also gave up a bunch of points? Yeah.

THE PETE CARROLL DIVISON

Texas I said this earlier in the week, but if Texas wins their next three games (@ Colorado, Oklahoma in Dallas and Missouri at home) they could be staring #1 in the face with the “tough” part of their schedule done. And we of course all hope that Colt McCoy keeps up his Heisman-like play, but I’m rubbing my hands together just to see what excuse Texas fans could give for not giving Greg Davis any credit on this one, too.

Missouri Okay Missouri you can wake up at any moment now. Chase Daniel is great, but he’s not going to be able to help a defense that is currently ranked 79th in the country. When the Tigers play teams that can score with them (Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Texas are next up, and they can all put up points), they might have some trouble. We’ve seen this formula before, and it usually doesn’t work.

Oklahoma The Sooners have been great (averaging 49.75 points per game while allowing 13) but you have to wonder if their running game will catch up to them at some point. The Sooners have also given up some passing yards, but a good defensive line and Bradford at quarterback have been enough to shore that up. Wait, are we sure we’re not talking about Texas here?

Facebook Status Messages

Mark Richt is burning his laundry.

Les Miles has made a pact with Satan.

Pete Carroll is trying to get Oregon State out of the Pac-10.

Kirk Ferentz is now friends with Greg Schiano and Vincent Chase.

Greg Robinson and Dave Wannestedt have joined the group Defense Coordinators, not Head Coaches.

Jevan Snead has written on Urban Meyer’s Wall: “Boo-yah!”

The Florida State/Miami Game is now friends with The Notre Dame/Michigan Game.

Leonard Ledford is no longer in a relationship with Scholz Beer Garten.

Todd Dodge is wondering if Southlake Carroll would have him back.

Matt Craig is now engaged to Robbi Driggers.

On to the games...

Auburn -4.5 @ Vanderbilt:

Wait, how in the hell did Vanderbilt get into this column? Is this a chess match? What? They are 4-0 with wins over Mississippi and South Carolina? What the hell…

Vandy is 4-0 because they’re #1 in the nation in turnover margin. They intercepted Jevan Snead four times and forced two more fumbles against Mississippi, and they forced South Carolina to turn the ball over three times.

Now is that because they are being opportunistic, because they have a hard hitting defense, or because they have been a bit lucky?

The (what the hell is Vanderbilt’s mascot???) haven’t been 5-0 since Adolf Hitler was ruling Germany. Something tells me it isn’t going to happen this year, either.

Auburn 14 Vanderbilt 7
ATS – Auburn
SU – Auburn

Ohio State -2.5 @ Wisconsin:

Wisconsin somehow blew a 19 point lead last week to Michigan, who is about as likely to make a comeback as Gene Upshaw, while Ohio State bored us all to death last week against Minnesota.

These two teams might as well be playing to see is more overrated, and I like Wisconsin at home…at night.

Wisconsin 23 Ohio State 17
ATS – Wisconsin
SU – Wisconsin

Oregon @ USC -16.5:

There is one thing Pete Carroll does not do…beat Oregon State in Corvalis. Kidding. No, it’s lose two games in a row. Oregon is the sacrificial lamb, and at this point they might have an actual lamb playing quarterback for all I know.


USC 44 Oregon 17
ATS – USC
SU – USC

Texas Tech -7 @ Kansas State:

KSU’s Josh Freeman has been good this year, but Kansas State gave up 38 to a Louisville team that isn’t as good as they were a few years ago, and 37 to Louisiana Lafayette, who is Louisiana Lafayette. Tech rolls.

Texas Tech 41 Kansas State 24
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Texas Tech

Missouri -11 @ Nebraska:

Nebraska coach Bo Pelini has said the goal is to shut out Missouri this week, which might be a good goal for SE Missouri State, but probably won’t work against the #2 scoring offense in America. Nebraska gave up 35 to a Virginia Tech team that ranks 108th in the country in total defense…not good foreshadowing.

Missouri 45 Nebraska 27
ATS – Missouri
SU – Missouri

Texas -13.5 @ Colorado:

The Buffs are giving up rushing yards like a mid-nineties Texas defense in their past two ballgames, so if the Texas rushing game is going to get healthy, this might be the game. Fozzy Whitaker might even play this game, which would be helpful against a Buffs defense that isn’t very fast.

Colorado also doesn’t blitz very much (only 14% of the time this year) so Colt McCoy doesn’t really have to worry about different looks and blitzers in his face.

On defense, the Longhorns lead the nation in sacks, and get to play a Colorado offensive line that has lost two starters since the beginning of the season and now start two freshmen in their place.

Colorado has talked this week about a break-out game for Darrell Scott, and have talked about trying to avenge the 70-3 loss the Horns put on them at the 2005 Big 12 Championship Game.

Good. Let them do the talking, and as Roy Miller said this week, “we’ll put our hands in the dirt” and let it do the talking.

Playing in Boulder at night scares me, but not as much as a Texas team loaded and with a Muschamp-like attitude should scare the Buffs.

Texas 44 Colorado 21
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick



For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for the Darrell Scott Transfer Fund.