Tuesday, November 23, 2010

The Week That Will Be (Thanksgiving 2010)

Last Week: 2-3-1 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 29-38-5 (.433) ($1240) ATS 47-25 (.653) SU


What we learned last week:

We learned that Ohio State can keep motoring along and Terrelle Pryor doesn’t need to be great with that defense…

We learned that Houston Nutt can play some good football against LSU, as the Tigers score late to keep their BCS hopes alive…

We learned that Andrew Luck has a mean stiff-arm…

We learned that Oklahoma might be a bad road team, but all of that goes out the window when you travel to apathetic Waco…

We learned that Bo Pelini can blow a gasket because of a 16-2 penalty discrepancy between the Cornhuskers and Aggies, but the Aggies can only take advantage of that to the tune of a 3 point victory…

And finally, we learned that yes, it is possible for Texas to blow out an out-matched opponent once again.

Anyhow…

It is that time of year again, the time for turkey, dressing, football and getting high on Ambien and running your Cadillac Escalade into your neighbor’s tree while your wife runs after you shattering your windows with a five iron.

So on this day of Thanks, it is time for me to give thanks to all of you that make my life better each and every day:

To Cam Newton, thanks for taking over the headlines and covering up the fact that Texas has gone from the BCS National Championship Game to needing to win their last game in order to go to a crappy bowl game.

To Notre Dame, thanks for not killing anybody today.

To Deloss Dodds, thanks for saving me the money that it would take for me to travel to Los Angeles, Tempe, Palo Alto, Berkeley, Seattle, etc. and not going to Manhattan, Lawrence and Ames.

To Bo Pelini, thanks for making me realize that football really doesn’t make me angry at all…compared to you.

To Four Loko, thanks for the Oklahoma State tailgate shenanigans.

To Sofia Vergara, thanks for wearing those dresses on Modern Family.

To ABC, thanks for broadcasting in HD.

To Northwestern Football, thanks for letting us know what Wrigley Field looks like in November.

To Joe Paterno, thanks for letting us know what was on the site of Wrigley Field before it was built.

To Texas A&M, thanks for letting me re-live my high school days by being good again.

To The Old 97’s, thanks for a great album after a string of bad to mediocre ones.

To Wade Phillips, thanks for claiming that you had “as good of a record as Tom Landry” and verifying to everyone that you needed to be fired.

To the TSA, thanks for making public fondling okay and something we can all watch.

To Dancing With the Stars, thanks for keeping Bristol Palin on the show, giving America something to bitch about over those unimportant things such as, you know, the economy, national security and the new Congress.

To @chrissyteigen, thanks for the entertaining tweets.

To Sam Acho, thanks for the great play on the field, but more importantly for being someone on the team to look up to, as a two-time Academic All-American.

To Chykie Brown, thanks for the solid career and the 29 starts on teams that lost one game from 2008-2009.

To Curtis Brown, thanks for your 26 career starts, the touchdown against Oklahoma State last year and for your solid special teams play. We’ve had our share of problems back there, too, but we all know it wasn’t for a lack of trying. Most importantly, I hope your daughter is fully recovered.

To John Chiles, thanks for a career that was never boring and the teaching of the young receivers on the team this year.

To Dustin Earnest, thanks for the flexibility of playing all three linebacker positions and for the solid contributions to special teams.

To John Gold, thanks for keeping on kicking, and for the very good year this year.

To Kyle Hix, thanks for the 38 career starts and for the solid contributions all through your career.

To Michael Huey, thanks for the 20 career starts and solid contributions all through your career.

To Blaine Irby, thanks for trying to make it back if this is it. You had a bright future before the injury, and took it in stride and kept going despite the seriousness of the injury. If we see you next year, fantastic, but if not, thanks and good luck in everything you do.

To Eddie Jones, thanks for only missing two games in four years, and for sticking with it behind guys like Brian Orakpo and Sergio Kindle. You probably could have gone somewhere else and started more games, but you chose to stay here, and for that we are proud.

To James Kirkendoll, thanks for the 27 career starts and those two touchdowns against Texas A&M last year, and for being the most consistent receiver this year.

To Britt Mitchell, thanks for the conversion to tight end and the 11 career starts.

To Steve Moore, thanks for your contributions at guard and on special teams through your career.

To Jared Norton, thanks for fighting your way back from injury. You were one of my favorite players before the injury, but although the injury might have robbed you of a dominating end to your career, the perseverance and dedication to the organization will not go unnoticed by the Longhorn nation.

To Greg Smith, thanks for your versatility. Numerous injuries to other players and what not have forced you to play every single position on the offensive line and tight end, and I’m not sure that didn’t hinder your career. Your dedication is noticed and appreciated.

To Mark Fisher, Michael Summerville, Chris Torbert and Ryan Zych, thanks for walking on and showing the ultimate dedication to this team. Your efforts are never recognized, but the role is important and appreciated.

To Aaron Williams, thanks for being one of the best this program has seen if this is it. The interception against Oklahoma was the best I have ever seen last year, and the sack was a game changer. Again, if this is it, good luck at the next level, and if not, let’s kick some ass next year.

To Keenan Robinson, thanks for being a game changer if this is it. From Nebraska and Alabama last year to Oklahoma last year, you seemed to save the best for the largest stage, and it is much appreciated. If you are back next year, we’ll have a great rock in the middle of the defense, and if not, good luck at the next level.

To the Longhorn coaching staff, thanks for an outstanding run. I know we all like to be cynical and snarky, but the fact of the matter is that nobody else has done what we’ve done in the past ten years on this level, and for that we should all be proud. It might be time for a shake-up, but we all appreciate the good run that we’ve had and we know that times will once again be good in short time because of a lot of the people on this staff.

To Greg Davis, thanks for giving us one of the country’s best offenses for the past 12 years. The great run that we’ve had for that time period has been this program’s richest in terms of offensive success, and even though everyone likes to pretend that Vince Young and Colt McCoy came from spaceships, I know that it was hard work on your part and their part to make those relationships thrive and make them the special players that they were. It is probably time for some fresh ideas, so if this is it, thanks for your contributions and I appreciate the class and the humbleness you exhibited in the good times and bad.

To Sailor Ripley, thanks for giving me the opportunity to write for the best Longhorn site on all of the Internets, Barking Carnival. It means a lot to me to be recognized, and I hope that I have brought value to the site.

To Barking Carnival, thanks for giving me a vessel for my thoughts and for commenting on my columns each and every week. Being a writer, I think that every column I write sucks and it is good to know that my efforts are appreciated out there.

To the tailgate crew, thanks for another great season of camaraderie and good times. It wasn’t the best of seasons on the field, but our dedication and support never wavered. I can’t see my family as much as I would like to these days, and you guys provide me with a second family. Other than at home, I can’t imagine a better place to spend a holiday full of togetherness than with you guys underneath a tent in a state parking lot. You never know when it is going to end, so I’m going to enjoy the ride.
I hope that you all have a happy and joyous Thanksgiving holiday, but most of all I hope that you all stay safe, stay warm, eat well and that we beat the hell out of A&M.

On to the games...

Arizona @ Oregon -19.5:

This one has been a good one in recent years, with Oregon winning last year’s game in Tucson 44-41 in OT; Oregon winning 55-45 in 2008 and Arizona winning 34-27 in 2007 in the game that ended Dennis Dixon’s career at Oregon.

This year’s game could be more of the same, but Arizona hasn’t played well as of late, losing their last game at home to USC 24-21 and getting routed by Stanford 42-17 the week before that.

My brain tells me that Arizona will keep this close, but then I look at the fact that Oregon has blown out everyone that has come to Autzen this year, including Stanford, who is better than Arizona.

Oregon 47 Arizona 24
ATS – Oregon
SU – Oregon

Boise State -14 @ Nevada:

Lost in all the hoopla of Chris Petersen and Kellen Moore is the Boise State defense, which got its third shutout of the year against a solid Fresno State team and ranks second in the country behind TCU in total defense and ranks first in rushing defense, sacks and tackles for loss.

They will have their hands full with Nevada, who is led onto the field by three years plus starting quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Nevada would like nothing better than to ruin Boise State’s title hopes, after losing to Boise State by 11 points in 2009, 7 points in 2008 and 2 points in 2007.

Kaepernick has thrown for 7 touchdowns and no interceptions lifetime against Boise State (with two rushing touchdowns thrown in as well), so he’s not fearful of the mighty Broncos.

I think Kaepernick gets the job done here. Boise State has an a great run at it, but the Wolfpack knocks them off their pedestal.

Nevada 37 Boise State 34
ATS – Nevada
SU – Nevada

Auburn @ Alabama -4.5:

One team has two losses, while one has none, but the one with two losses is the decided favorite in this game.

There are a couple of reasons for that. First, Alabama has won the last two games in this series, including a 36-0 victory the last time these two teams played in Tuscaloosa.

Second, Auburn has been vulnerable on the road this season. They won by 3 at Mississippi State and Kentucky before winning by 20 at Mississippi but also giving up 31 points in the process.

It isn’t a secret that Auburn’s defense has been shaky, and now they have to face seasoned veterans Greg McElroy, Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson (most likely) and Julio Jones….and oh yeah face the best defense they will play all year.

And if none of that convinced you…Saban v. Chizik.

The Tide will roll.

Alabama 31 Auburn 24
ATS – Alabama
SU – Alabama

LSU @ Arkansas -3.5:

Another good rivalry game..on Rivalry Weekend of all things. Weird. Anyhow, the last time this game was decided by more than 5 points was 2004, when LSU beat Arkansas 43-14.

Since then it has been back and forth, with LSU winning 3 games and Arkansas 2. To even up that match-up Arkansas will have to do it on a pass defense only giving up 151 yards per game.

Arkansas has a good enough defense to keep LSU at bay, and a good enough offense to score on that defense. Add to it the game is in Little Rock and I think you have to go with Arkansas here.

Arkansas 28 LSU 24
ATS – Arkansas
SU – Arkansas

Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State -2.5:

Bedlam. It has been bedlam for Oklahoma State in recent years, with their most recent victory against Oklahoma coming in 2002 in Stillwater. They were supposed to compete in 2008 and lost by 20; in 2006 they were also supposed to compete and lost by 6.

Can the Cowboys avoid the Poke Choke and make their first ever Big 12 game?

I think so. I’ve watched both of these teams in almost every game they have played this season and Oklahoma State looks better. Brandon Weeden has been slightly better than Landry Jones (numbers very similar but Weeden has decided edge in passing efficiency). Justin Blackmon has been slightly better than Ryan Broyles (Broyles averages more receptions but Blackmon averages more yards 156-119 and 17 touchdowns to 12 touchdowns). Kendall Hunter has been better than Demarco Murray.

But of course none of that matters because they aren’t facing each other, it will come down to which defense can stop which offense…and I think in this situation, Oklahoma State’s will be better.

Oklahoma gave up 33 to Texas A&M. 36 to Missouri. 29 to Cincinnati. Oklahoma State’s offense is a lot better than all of those teams.

Oklahoma State, meanwhile, gave up 14 to Kansas and 16 to Texas. 14 to Kansas State. The OSU defense has been better as of late, and I think they do enough here to allow OSU to outscore Oklahoma.

Oklahoma State 38 Oklahoma 34
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Texas A&M -3 @ Texas:

The last time Texas was an underdog in this series? 1999. The last time they were a home underdog? 1998. The first two years of the Mack Brown era.

Texas A&M looks to win their third game against Texas in five years, and many would ask why not after the Aggies dominated Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Baylor and handled Nebraska last week, while Texas was losing to Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas State and Oklahoma State in that same time period.

The Aggies have the edge in offense, of course, with their rejuvenation being led by Ryan Tannehill, who has thrown for 1,300 yards and has a touchdown/interception rate of 10/3. Tannehill has thrown for 9 percentage points better than Garrett Gilbert, while throwing for 1.5 yards more per attempt as well.
The hope that the Horns have in this one comes from their defense, which is somehow still ranked 8th in the country, but who we have seen lit up by Oklahoma State, Baylor Kansas State and Oklahoma in recent weeks.

The Aggie defense is improved in this stretch as well, with Von Miller coming on after a slow start with five sacks in four games.

Looking at the numbers this one is going to be tough for the Horns. Contain Tannehill and Jeff Fuller, hold Cedric Gray to around or less than 100 yards, and they have a shot. Let anyone of those guys go wild, and it could be a long, cold night.

Texas A&M 34 Texas 21
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – Texas A&M

Random Hot Dallas Chick

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For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for trips to Ames, Waco, Columbia and College Station.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

The Week That Will Be (11.20.2010)


Last Week: 2-4 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 27-35-4 (.435) ($1110) ATS 43-23 (.652) SU


What we learned last week:

We learned that Marcus Lattimore is fully healthy after he gouged the Gators for 248 total yards and three touchdowns…21 yards and two more touchdowns than the entire Gator offense…

We learned that Oregon’s offense can be stopped…if you fake more injuries than WWE’s Monday Night Raw. You might as well don a mask and steel chair, Tedford…

We learned that Auburn says “screw it we’ll just take the AP national championship”, thank you, continuing to play Cam Newton despite all the evidence that he will one day be Reggie Bushed. But I guess you can’t blame them at this point…

We learned that Baylor can score 30 points in one half, and do an impersonation of the Texas offense in the second half and lose to Texas A&M…

We learned that Tommy Tuberville’s Tech can do the same as Mike Leach’s Tech…go up to Norman and get their ass kicked…

And finally, we learned that Justin Blackmon > Aaron Williams, Brandon Weeden isn’t bad for a 40 year old and Four Loko makes the ass beating a little easier to take.

Anyhow…

Okay, let’s stop one thing right now.

As if the poor offensive performances weren’t already reminiscent of the Longhorns of the early 2000s, now we’re going to bring back the embarrassing way in which we treated our starting quarterback?

Are we really going to turn this into a Longhorn Fan base v. Garrett Gilbert kind of crap again?

Thankfully the more educated faction of our fan base hasn’t latched on to this mindset quite yet, but a quick scour around the Longhorn message boards and it is embarrassing how many people take their angst for the pathetic showing from the Longhorns and project it upon a 19 year old kid who has shown nothing but class in a year where very few of us can say that.
As if we didn’t already have the reputation of a spoiled, petulant child fan base that turns on their own on a dime, this season’s performance could go into the Smithsonian Natural Museum of Whininess.

Waahhh, Garrett Gilbert isn’t Vince Young or Colt McCoy!!!!11!!1!!

Well Boo-fucking-hoo.

Who is?

You’re talking about a quarterback that won the school’s first national championship in 35 years, and a quarterback that had four years of work and won the most collegiate games in history against a quarterback with less than a full season of experience surrounded by the worst collection of offensive talent in the Mack Brown era?

To quote a very hot chick in a Windows phone commercial, “really?”

Now, we can all agree that Garrett Gilbert hasn’t been adequate this season. The interceptions are too high (although 11 of those have come in three games), the signature throw that we’ll all remember hasn’t been there, and he probably should have been pulled in Manhattan to save his confidence if nothing else.

But I’m not going to blame a kid that spent all off-season learning a completely new offense than what he’s learned in his entire life, learned a new offense than what he learned last season, is also the leading rusher on the team because the running game has given him no help, and is throwing to receivers that look like they slam Four Loko on the sidelines.

But maybe that is just me.

And through it all, through the worst season that a lot of this fan base has ever had to endure, the guy has been nothing but class.

He’s blamed himself. Said he has to get better. Said that the team has to rally and get better. Said that they’ll keep working until they get it right.

He didn’t blame his teammates for dropping passes or not protecting him in the pocket, or for giving him a deficit to come back from. He didn’t pass blame to the coaches for not letting him do enough. He didn’t say that these things happen and if the worst thing that ever happens in life is he loses a football game he’s okay. He didn’t complain about the lofty expectations hoisted upon him from his first start.

Nope, he’s just promised to get better…and what more can you ask than that?

Garrett Gilbert didn’t forget how to play football when he stepped on the Forty Acres. He didn’t set all sorts of records in high school because he was woefully inaccurate and lacked field vision.

And he damn sure didn’t almost come back to win us the national championship last season because he was a poor quarterback.

Do you remember that fateful night at the Rose Bowl, ten months ago?

That night where all of our shoulders did a collective slump when Colt McCoy came out, when Gilbert couldn’t find his helmet, when the rest of the first half looked admittedly a lot like this year? Where we couldn’t move the ball to save our life, and Gilbert threw a couple of interceptions? When we were down 24-6 at halftime?

Well do you remember the second half, too? The half where Gilbert threw for 162 yards and two touchdowns, and completed seven out of eight passes and threw for 64 yards on the scoring drive that brought them to within 24-21? Do you remember that we had a chance to win a national championship with 90 yards and three minutes to go, and how he was pulling his arm back to pass to a wide-ass open Jordan Shipley streaking down the sidelines before being hit from the blind side?

All done against an Alabama defense that allowed only 166 yards passing per game last season and only 244 yards total. The Crimson Tide defense allowed 11 points per game last season. The only quarterbacks to throw for more yards against Alabama last season were Paul McCall (FIU), Stephen Garcia (USC), Jonathan Crompton (TN) and Tim Tebow (FL).

Gilbert didn’t talk after the game about how excited he was just to get the opportunity. He didn’t make excuses about how he was short-handed, only throwing 26 passes all year before that moment. He didn’t gush about how it was really neat to get out there on the field.

He talked about his turnovers and how they cost his team the national championship.

He needs to get better on the field. He needs to get better in the film room. He needs to progress from a thrower to a quarterback. He needs to be more vocal. He needs to be that leader and iron rod in the huddle that his two predecessors were.

But this is the guy that wanted to be a Longhorn when he was 7 years old, whose hero was Major Applewhite and didn’t even entertain the thought of going to any other school.

Maybe the coaches will open up the quarterback position to competition this Spring. That might even be good for Gilbert, to show him that nobody here can be anointed anything after a season like this. But you know what? He’ll win that job because he’s the best man for the job.

He is going to work his ass off in the off-season to get better, because he’s lived his whole life to be the starting quarterback for the University of Texas.

Jump off the bandwagon if you must, but you can sit right over there on the couch with the Vince Young doubters and the Colt McCoy doubters.

On to the games...

Ohio State -3 @ Iowa:

Iowa hasn’t beaten Ohio State since 2004, but came close last year when the Buckeyes won in OT 27-24. Terrelle Pryor was held in check that day, throwing for only 93 yards and rushing for 29.

Iowa has struggled as of late, losing to Northwestern for the third straight year last week and skating by Indiana the week prior.

Ohio State owns the month of November, and own the Big 10. They win here.

Ohio State 24 Iowa 13
ATS – Ohio State
SU – Ohio State

Mississippi @ LSU -16:

Jeremiah Masoli hasn’t been much of a pick-up for the Rebels this year, throwing for more than 200 yards only twice on the season and rushing for 100 yards twice as well. Add to that a defense that is allowing 35 points and 382 yards per game, and it isn’t hard to tell why Mississippi is at 4-6.

LSU has won nine games and lost by a touchdown to what many consider the best team in the country (Auburn). But I’m not sure they have the offense to run away and hide from Mississippi…if they haven’t given up already.

LSU 28 Mississippi 16
ATS – Mississippi
SU – LSU

Stanford -6.5 @ Cal:

Cal sits at 5-5 but have played well at home, holding Oregon to a season low 15 points last week and only 34 combined points in four other home games.

Stanford was held to a season low 17 points last week against Arizona State, which was 14 points below their previous season low. Jeff Tedford is 7-1 against Stanford in his career at Cal, but he hasn’t faced a Stanford team such as this one.

Stanford 28 Cal 14
ATS – Stanford
SU – Stanford

Oklahoma -7.5 @ Baylor:

Which Oklahoma team shows up here? The one that is 1-2 on the road this year, with that one a two point win over 3-6 Cincinnati, or the one that can blow Texas Tech and Florida State out at home with ease?

It isn’t like Waco is an intimidating place to play at all, but they did roll up 500 yards in a loss to Texas A&M and 560 against Oklahoma State…so they’ll move the ball.

I think RGIII and Finley keep it a close game, but OU wins out in the end.

Oklahoma 34 Baylor 31
ATS – Baylor
SU – Oklahoma

Nebraska -2.5 @ Texas A&M:

The Aggies are feeling it with a four game winning streak under their belts, and this will be the biggest game in College Station in several years as it will be a good test of how far this team has progressed this year.

Nebraska can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game here. I’m interested to see how Texas A&M and Tannehill do against a top notch defense, as they haven’t seen one in this stretch (Kansas 91st, Texas Tech 115th, Oklahoma 60th, Baylor 97th).

Should be a good game, but Nebraska is better.

Nebraska 31 Texas A&M 23
ATS – Nebraska
SU – Nebraska

Florida Atlantic @ Texas -21:

Sigh.

Who knew that a game against Florida Atlantic would turn out to be so important? Can the Horns snap a four game skid and give themselves a shot at bowl eligibility on Thanksgiving night?

And how depressing is it that we even have to think about that…or root against it if you are one of those types.

Anyhow, it is a bit hard to get a grip on Florida Atlantic. They only lost by 13 to Michigan State earlier in the year, throwing for 256 yards and holding the Spartans to 142 in the process. On the other hand, they’ve lost to 3-7 North Texas and beat 2-8 Western Kentucky and 2-8 Louisiana Lafayette by one point the past two weeks.

They have the nine returning starters on defense and three seniors in the secondary, so they will play some defense on you, allowing more than 31 points only once this year.

I’d like to think that this is the game where Texas figures it out and shows that they are interested in going to a bowl, but the problems here seem much deeper than what can be fixed in a week, even against a team that lost to North Texas.

Texas 24 Florida Atlantic 13
ATS – Florida Atlantic
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

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For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for stocking up on Four Loko like Nucky Thompson.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

The Week That Will Be (11.13.2010)

Last Week: 5-1 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 25-31-4 (.446) ($890) ATS 39-21 (.650) SU


What we learned last week:

We learned that Nick Saban needs to quit going to the beach during this bye weeks…with the loss to LSU Saban is now 16-14 in games after a bye week in his career…

We learned that Andrew Luck is still really, really good…

We learned that TCU might be the best team in the country, as they rolled Utah, out-gaining them by 337 yards…

We learned that Baylor might have been satisfied with a win over Texas, as they let Oklahoma State gain 725 yards and hardly looked like a team of “destiny”…

We learned that Oklahoma needs to work on their goal line offense in practice this week, and Bobby Stoops does not like leaving the confines of Norman…

And finally, we learned that we need to use our power and influence to get Kansas State kicked out of the conference.

Anyhow…

We talked in this space last week about not letting William Powell beat you on kick-off returns, and then we talked about stopping the one player that they had, Daniel Thomas.

All of that was out the window in the first minute of the game.

And we were wrong, they had two players to watch out for. Never in the modern era of football has a team ever had to stop two players.

I wish I could pinpoint what was wrong with this thing this year, but the offense stinks, the defense isn’t much better, the special teams are defunct and frankly it appears that the team has given up…which scares me to death.

Mack Brown sat there this week and told us that the team gave a great effort, and if that was a great effort we are REALLY in trouble, because if that was a great effort and we get down 39-0 to a team that will finish 7-5 in a weak conference…our recruiting efforts for the last four years have been a massive failure.

I wish I could answer why this coaching staff thought it was prudent to try to force Garrett Gilbert, a master of the spread offense, into the Chris Simms offense, or why they thought that we were a running team with three average to below average running backs, or why they thought this defense was the best in the Mack Brown era when we have major holes at all three levels, but the guys with the press passes don’t choose to ask those questions in their allotted time.

Nope, what we have here is a lost year in Texas football, one in which likely nothing will be earned, but hopefully a lot will be learned.

But enough about that…usually this time of the year we are fretting about who so and so plays this week, and if we have enough Sagarin points to get to #2, but this year other programs are worrying about that while we are debating how long it takes for a back-up quarterback to warm-up.

Let’s take a look at the potential BCS Championship teams:

OREGON

Remaining Schedule: @ California, Arizona, @ Oregon State

If the Ducks win out they are likely in. Cal has been pretty good at home, averaging 47 points per game in wins over UC-Davis, Colorado, UCLA and Arizona State, but just lost Riley Skinner, who is replaced by the seldom used Brock Mansion. But still, Oregon still hasn’t won in Berkley since 2001.

Arizona has had a solid year, but has been skating by…and won’t beat Oregon at Autzen.

Boise State fans will try to talk you into Oregon State being a really good team, but they’re just okay, and face Southern Cal and Stanford the week before they play Oregon. Will they have anything left in the tank? But still, this is always an entertaining game, with Oregon winning the last two by a combined score of 102-71.

AUBURN

Remaining Schedule: Georgia, @ Alabama, SEC Title Game

Auburn has the most intriguing games left this year, with the Cam Newton saga threatening to push the Dallas Cowboys and Brett Favre off of the front pages of the newspaper. IF Cam Newton plays the entire season, it should be a good one, as Auburn hasn’t beaten Georgia in five years, the Iron Bowl is always a good one and Urban Meyer leaking, er, Urban Meyer, ahem, allegedly leaking the stories about Newton leads to the revenge game of the decade in the SEC Title Game.

Grab a beer, demand money from your friends to have you at their Auburn watching parties and enjoy some good old Southern dummy football.

TCU

Remaining Schedule: San Diego State, @ New Mexico

TCU is a 27 point favorite against a decent San Diego State team this weekend, and will be a bigger favorite the next weekend, so they ain’t losing. If Auburn or Oregon drops one, TCU will be there ready to take their bid, and I’m not sure if they don’t deserve one outright.

The Frogs own the nation’s #1 defense for the second year in a row (after finishing #2 the year before), also own the nation’s best scoring defense, the nation’s #8 offense and are led on the field by a senior quarterback that has thrown 18 interceptions in three years.

Talk about their schedule all you want, but they have given up 23 points since the end of September and dominate games like we haven’t seen since 2005 Texas/USC.

BOISE STATE

Remaining Schedule: @ Idaho, Fresno State, @ Nevada, Utah State

Boise must have felt they needed the attention late in the year, because they have three straight Friday night games, which might be all that you need to know about the seriousness level of their program. Seriously, Friday nights are reserved for Euless Trinity dominating, no?

Boise might have an interesting slate left. Idaho won’t be much of a challenge, as the Vandals gave up 844 yards to Nevada last week. Fresno could probably challenge the Broncos at home, but must travel to Boise.

Nevada might be interesting. The Wolfpack can kill the clock (#2 in rushing offense in the country), can somewhat play defense (#19 in rush defense, #29 in sacks) and have a senior quarterback Colin Kaepernick that has 7 touchdowns to 0 interceptions in three career games against Boise, all losses, but all close losses (69-67 in 2007, 41-34 in 2008 and 44-33 in 2009).

Then, if Boise gets past Nevada they must play Utah State…yeah.

I suppose you also have the option of a one loss team such as LSU jumping TCU or Boise State, but I think if that happens we’ll all have to go drink ourselves into a stupor at the thought of Les Miles owning two national championship rings and we’ll all miss the game while in rehab anyhow.

So let’s not think about that.

On to the games...

South Carolina @ Florida -6.5:

South Carolina might have “Baylor beating Texas” disease, as the Gamecocks are 2-2 since beating Alabama, and those two losses were lackluster wins over listless Vanderbilt and Tennessee.

Florida, meanwhile, is headed the other way, as the last two weeks they might have found their missing offense. After realizing that John Brantley was a drop back passer forced to play in a option happy offense (stop me if you’ve heard this somewhere), the Gators substituted new quarterbacks in to run the old Tebow plays and left Brantley to do what he does best…pass. The Gators have rolled up 89 points in two weeks as a result.

South Carolina and Steve Spurrier play the Gators tough from time to time, but I think Florida is gelling at the right time.

Florida 31 South Carolina 20
ATS – Florida
SU – Florida

Oregon -20 @ California:

Oregon took a week off last week, only beating Washington 53-16, but this week they’ll be serious and do some damage.

Brock Mansion is simply no match for this Oregon team, as he threw two interceptions and plenty of incomplete passes last week in a close win over Washington State.

Oregon knows the entire nation is looking for them to slip up, and they won’t do it here.

Oregon 45 California 17
ATS – Oregon
SU – Oregon

Georgia @ Auburn -7:

The game of intrigue for the week, and it has little to do with the fact that Georgia has won four out of five and has all to do with Cam Newton and how he will handle the adversity…or if he will play at all?

Well, at “submit post” time, Cam Newton is still eligible, so we’re going to go with that. Georgia has been resurgent, but they have done so against a weaker schedule, beating Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky and Idaho State in those four games.

The key here is whether or not Georgia can get their running game which has fueled their resurgence going. Get it going and you can keep Cam Newton off the field, shorten the clock and hope that Auburn starts pressing. Get stuffed, or worse fall down early, and the Bulldogs will have to rely on Aaron Murray, who threw three touchdowns against Florida in a similar situation, but also threw three interceptions.

Auburn 28 Georgia 24
ATS – Georgia
SU – Auburn

Texas A&M -3 @ Baylor:

You look at the match-ups here and they’re close, but the key here is how does Baylor regroup and get out there after getting pounded by Oklahoma State, and more importantly, how does Texas A&M handle success?

The last time Robert Griffin faced Texas A&M, the Bears won handily, 41-21 in Waco, as RGIII threw for 241 yards and two touchdowns and Jay Finley ran for 116 yards and a touchdown. I don’t expect that lopsided score, but I do expect Baylor to get out on top.

Baylor 31 Texas A&M 27
ATS – Baylor
SU – Baylor

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma -15.5:

The home team has won the last six in this series, and the last time Tech traveled to Norman they were destroyed 65-21 in a game that was 42-7 at halftime. Neither of these teams are nearly as good as those respective squads, but Oklahoma is closer.

In conference play, Tech has lost by two touchdowns to Iowa State, barely squeaked by a Colorado team that has already fired their coach and gave up 623 yards to the Aggies.

Oklahoma wins, and they win large.

Oklahoma 48 Texas Tech 14
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Oklahoma State -5.5 @ Texas:

Texas has won 12 straight in this series, the last loss coming in…1997. Where have we heard that one before?

They haven’t always followed conventional standards, there were the big comebacks in 2004, 2005 and 2007, there were the ass kickings in 2001, 2003, 2006 and 2009, and there were the nail biters in 2002 and 2008, but they always ended up with Texas winning the game and Oklahoma State fans shaking their heads as the “visitors” won another one.

Well as hard as it is to say when a team has beaten the other 12 straight times, this one would be the most shocking of all of those, as Texas enters this one at 4-5, reeling with losses in four of their last five games and a team in disarray, while Oklahoma State rolls into town with an 8-1 record and the third best offense in the country.

So what do you have to hope for as a Texas fan, in addition to the 12 game winning streak?

Oklahoma State is so so on the road. The Cowboys dominate at home, averaging 50.8 points per game in Stillwater, but ease up a bit on the road, only averaging 37 points per game (still above what Texas has scored in any game this season, mind you). But that does include a game against Louisiana-Lafayette where the Cowboys trailed at the half, 21-17.

The Cowboys give up almost as many yards as they get. Oklahoma State is 113th in the country in pass defense, giving up 272 yards per game through the air, so if Texas can catch the ball and throw the ball to the right color jersey, there is a chance to get something here. Taylor Martinez threw for 323, Jerrod Johnson threw for 409 and Corey Robinson from Troy threw for 272, so there will be plenty of open receivers if Texas can find them.

93% of the public money and the line is going down. Your guess is as good as mine, but somebody out there knows something?

In a normal year with a normal Texas offense, this game is very winnable. Yes, Oklahoma State is good, but as Nebraska showed you can out-score them. But we all know this isn’t a normal year, and it is going to take a very, very, VERY abnormal output from this offense to keep up with the Cowboys.

Or perhaps I’m wrong, and the defense decides to play up to their billing as the “best defense in the Mack Brown era” and holds Oklahoma State to say, 24 points…

So you’re saying we have a chance.

Let’s just say I hope I’m pleasantly surprised.

Oklahoma State 38 Texas 21
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

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Wednesday, November 3, 2010

The Week That Will Be (11.06.2010)

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 20-30-4 (.400) ($1240) ATS 35-19 (.648) SU


What we learned last week:

We learned that Michigan State was indeed a paper tiger, but thanks for playing…

We learned that Cam Newton is the next Vince Young, or the next to next to next one after five other guys have been called that in the last five years…

We learned that I should have trusted my first impressions of Oregon…I’m not sure anyone beats that team…

We learned that it took a little while for the Oklahoma State offense to wake up, but they finally remembered that Kansas State has a bad defense and fed the ball to Kendall Hunter to the tune of 143 yards…

We learned that Nebraska can blast Missouri, who blasted Oklahoma, who blasted Texas, who blasted…Nebraska?

And finally, we learned that this Texas team just isn’t that good.

Anyhow…

Mack Brown:

"I didn't see as much fun as I thought I would," he says. "We've got a little arrogance about this bunch right now. I shouldn't have said this could be the best defense we've ever had because right now we're a long way from that. I talked about the physical run game; we need to stop talking about that.

"How much do you like being at Texas and like being a football player?" Brown continues." Some of you like being at Texas more than you've earned the right to be here.

"I was embarrassed for myself. I was embarrassed for some of my coaches, not all. I was embarrassed for some of you players, not all. … It was kind of embarrassing.

"Boy, I'm scared. I'm worried about this team. I'm worried about it.

"We've got some entitlement in this room. Got to get that fixed. Got some selfishness in this room. Got to get that fixed. This isn't Texas football.”


Boy Mack was really upset after that loss to Baylor last week, wasn’t he?

Nope, this passage is from the Pat Forde profile on Mack Brown written [i]after the season opener against Rice that captured the post-game speech from Mack after the 34-17 Texas win.

But as the clock ticked down to triple zeroes and I filtered out of DKR with the rest of the orange-clad fans last Saturday, upset that I wouldn’t be getting the Pluckers Five Wings Free coupon for the third straight game, I just came to the realization that we’re just not that good.

Groundbreaking, I know.

Perhaps it was a lot of the “don’t give a damn” factor that cost us against Iowa State, perhaps even against UCLA, but Baylor was just a better team than we were.

UCLA has viable running backs that fit into their run first attack. Baylor had the better quarterback, the better running back, the better wide receiver and the better offensive line on the field on Saturday.

Do we have better talent than those teams? Probably. We had better recruiting classes, but I’m not sure there is any player on offense that is any better than he was last year, or the year before for that matter.

But even if we do have better talent, they have a better team.

And there is a difference.

The offense still hasn’t scored more than 24 points since the mid-September win over Wyoming, and the defense has given up at least 28 points in every loss this season. For an offense that is struggling, the defense is not picking up the slack, instead choosing to give up back breaking plays at the wrong times (first drive of the second half against UCLA, falling down 14-0 to Oklahoma, giving up two touchdowns in five minutes to Iowa State bridging the third and fourth quarters and finally, allowing Baylor three touchdowns in the final 20 minutes of the game on Saturday).

Now a program that ten months ago was in the national title game is struggling to become bowl eligible, with a fourth-tier bowl the prize even if they do attain that goal.

Hell I’d just settle for some Pluckers coupons at this point.

But enough about that, let’s take a look at some teams that are doing well. As we are nearing the end of the regular season, it is time to see where teams might end up in the post-season, with HornMafia’s Bowl Predictions.

The Worst Idea Associated With the Texas Program Bowl: University Co-op Statues vs. Zombie Nation
Look. The statues (go here if you have no idea what I’m talking about) are awful, and makes our team look like they’re scared shitless (insert punchline here) but they were probably just an ill-conceived idea by someone who wanted to shave a little money off the budget.

But the decision to play Zombie Nation before kick-offs was a deliberate decision by someone that said, “Hey you know that drum cadence that the band does, and then a lot of the crowd starts jumping up and down? Nah, screw that, we’re going ZOMBIE NATION baby!”

We’re not Wisconsin, where we have no tradition thus we can play crappy techno music, everyone waves their glow sticks, downs a little Red Bull and nobody cares. Darrell K. Royal walked these sidelines, he doesn’t want to hear ZOMBIE NATION when he attends games. Just ask yourself if Darrell would like it and move on.

The Bad First Year Coaching Job Bowl: Kansas vs. Notre Dame

Say what you want about Turner Gill and his team’s 2-6 record and the fact that they haven’t scored more than 16 points in five weeks and the fact that the 28 given up to Iowa State last weekend was an improvement over the 159 points his team gave up in the previous three games, but at least his actions didn’t lead to a poor kid’s death.

Just saying.

The I Can Always Get A Job At McDonald’s Bowl: Jerrod Johnson vs. Jake Locker

Jerrod Johnson was supposedly the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year coming into the season and has been benched in favor of a wide receiver, while Jake Locker was a lock to be the first overall pick in the draft and now has to fake an injury so he doesn’t plummet out of the first day.
Perhaps guys should have to, I don’t know, earn these titles before they greatness is bestowed upon them?
[
b]The We Have To Think About This The Rest Of Our Lives Bowl: Nebraska Fans vs. Themselves[/b]
20-13. Just think about that mild October day if you guys end up going undefeated the rest of the way, because there isn’t any way in hell that any pollster will elevate a Nebraska team that lost to 6-6 Texas or whatever the Longhorns end up at.

Just think about it on the way out the door, Nebraska.

The Elevated Idea Of Your Program Bowl: Minnesota v. Minnesota

When Tim Brewster was fired earlier this year, I think we all thought, “okay, they’ll get some coordinator from a BCS school and move on”, but nope, here are the three names that Minnesota has targeted:

Chris Petersen. Jim Harbaugh. Gary Patterson.

Someone kindly remind Minnesota that they haven’t been a national power since the pre-Hitler days, and that their last outright Big 10 title came in
1941 shortly before the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. Thanks.

The We’ve Never Been Here Before Bowl: Robert Griffin III vs. Outlandish Statements

Okay I know this is uncharted territory for Baylor, but Robert. C’mon.

“A lot of people want to talk about teams of destiny. I think this is one of them.”

Teams of “destiny” have shots at the national title. They don’t lose games by 35 points to other contenders. Team of “destiny” don’t drop games to 4-4 squads in mid-season.

You’re having a very nice season, hell even a great season. But destiny? Leave that for strip club DJs to announce.

The Dallas Football Classic Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Illinois

The Aggies finally return to the Cotton Bowl, although it isn’t the Cotton Bowl anymore. But that won’t stop their webmaster from calling it the Cotton Bowl until conference rivals point out their error.

The Pinstripe Bowl: Texas vs. Syracuse

The Pinstripe Bowl officials never dreamed of landing Texas in their bowl game, but they could have dreamed about the 25 degree temperatures at kick-off. Justin Tucker knocks one off the monuments to win as time expires and Texas avenges the 1993 tie and 1992 loss to Syracuse…but not the 2003 Final Four, because that would be just silly.

The Texas Bowl: Kansas State vs. Northwestern

Purple purple purple.

The Holiday Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon State

Oklahoma State tries to halt a two game bowl losing streak, while Oregon State looks happy to see the Oklahoma State defense after facing those tough Pac-10 defenses all season.

The Insight Bowl: Baylor vs. Iowa

It is high powered offense vs. high powered defense, and we all lose because it’s freaking Baylor vs. Iowa playing in the Insight Bowl.

The Alamo Bowl: Missouri vs. Arizona

Nick Foles returns to Central Texas…and I can’t think of much else too compelling about this match-up.

The Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Arkansas

We have a rematch of that thrilling 10-3 Oklahoma win in the 2002 Cotton Bowl “Classic”, but it is okay because we have effectively quarantined all
Sooner and Razorback fans for a weekend away from the rest of us.

The Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh

Nebraska might win the last Big 12 title, but the joke is on them as they have to play Pittsburgh in a game that people in Pittsburgh won’t even watch…and then to top it all off Bo Pelini gets out-coached by Dave Wannstedt. Okay not really.

The BCS Championship Game: Alabama vs. Oregon

The non-BCS schools bitch, but it is great uniforms versus bad uniforms, old versus new in a horribly named stadium. The BCS powers that be pit Boise State and TCU against each other to see if they have the power to crash the Internet.

On to the games...

Alabama -6.5 @ LSU:

Alabama gave up 35 points to South Carolina three games ago, but in the other games they have given up 75 points combined. I have a hard time seeing LSU scoring enough to win here, but do expect a tight, hard fought defensive battle.

Alabama 20 LSU 14
ATS – LSU
SU – Alabama

Arizona @ Stanford -9.5:

Arizona won this one 43-38 last year in Tucson, but Stanford is a better team than they were at this point last year. The Wildcat defense is stout, only giving up 286 yards and 14 points per game.

I look for Arizona to keep it tight here, but Andrew Luck is a machine.

Stanford 34 Arizona 27
ATS – Arizona
SU – Stanford

TCU -4.5 @ Utah:

Ah yes, a battle of #4 and #6 in the country, and about 99% of the country isn’t going to get it on TV. Gotta love these small conferences.

Despite the lack of TV coverage, this should be a great game, as TCU brings the country’s #1 scoring defense and #9 scoring offense, while Utah brings the country’s #6 scoring defense and #3 scoring offense.

I can certainly see Utah coming out and putting everything together here, but I think TCU seems to be on a mission this year (they haven’t given up more than 7 points since a 41-24 win over SMU on September 24th.

TCU keeps their national title hopes alive.

TCU 27 Utah 14
ATS – TCU
SU – TCU

Baylor @ Oklahoma State -7.5:

The question here is can Baylor get up for this game a week after knocking off Texas in Austin? Oklahoma State will be ready, especially getting Justin Blackmon back from his one game suspension.

Baylor has yet to win in Stillwater in Big 12 play, with their last trip up there a 34-6 loss in 2008.

Look for OSU to take care of things in their building.

Oklahoma State 41 Baylor 31
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Oklahoma -3.5 @ Texas A&M:

With the exception of the 2008 game, the Sooners have had trouble in College Station, not too much trouble, mind you, since they are 4-1 there, but the other three wins were by a margin of 7 points or less.

And of course we all know by now Oklahoma’s troubles away from home, racking up a 22-18 record on the road compared to a 35-1 record at home since 2005.

Mike Sherman made the switch to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and it has paid dividends, as Tannehill has thrown for 629 yards and has 7 touchdowns (half of Jerrod Johnson’s total) to only 1 interception (to Johnson’s 9).

All of that, combined with Oklahoma’s troubles on defense this year, and I think that Oklahoma goes down again.

Texas A&M 34 Oklahoma 30
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – Texas A&M

Texas -3.5 @ Kansas State:

We all know the Longhorns’ troubles against Kansas State. With half of the fanbase on depression medication I’m not going to rehash any of that…except for 2002.

That was another beleaguered offense, statistically the second worst in the Mack Brown era to this one, and they also had to travel up to Manhattan, Kansas…and we’re also 3.5 point favorites.

It wasn’t a pretty victory, as Chris Simms only threw for 184 yards and the Longhorns ran for 46 yards on 32 carries. BJ Johnson was the lone bright spot on offense, as he brought in 4 catches for 132 yards and a touchdown.

On defense, the Longhorns held Darren Sproles to 136 yards on 20 carries, while Ell Roberson also ran for 76 while throwing for 102.

The Longhorns won that game when Marcus Tubbs blocked a 36 yard field goal attempt, and while I certainly hope it doesn’t come down to anything that dramatic, this is the type of game that Texas is going to have to play to win this game.

Daniel Thomas is the real deal, and for a defense that has had trouble with bottling up running backs this season, he’s the best we’ve seen, averaging 124.5 yards per game and 5.08 a carry. Kansas State doesn’t have much of a passing game (89th in the country) and doesn’t really run the ball with anyone else (William Powell is their second leading rusher at 27.5 yards per game) and don’t have a receiving threat (Aubrey Quarles is their best at 95th in the country with 4.12 receptions a game), so Thomas is literally their offense.

In their five wins, Thomas is averaging 147 yards per game, in their losses, he’s averaging 94.67 yards.

Stop him and you win.

So, theoretically, if our defense is as good as everyone keeps reassuring us it is, it shouldn’t be a problem to stop one guy, right?

As for the offense, if you can’t move the ball against Kansas State you have problems. Gone are the days of that feared KSU defense, as they rank dead last in FBS in rushing defense, giving up 228.5 yards per game.

They gave up 213 last week to Oklahoma State, 279 the week before against Baylor, 103 to Kansas, 451 to Nebraska, 252 to UCF…you get the point.

Against the pass they’re better, but still not great, ranking 85th in the country in sacks and 58th in pass defense.

If there is ever a time for this offense to show some signs of life, this is it.

We’ll see.

One thing you do have to watch out for, if you are able to score, is that William Powell is first in the country in kickoff returns, averaging 33.2 yards per return.

I’d like to say that Texas is Texas and comes out here and wipes the floor with a less talented opponent, but the fact that we’re not very good up there, and the fact that we’re not a very good football ourselves, I’m skeptical.

But the superior talent can’t be kept down too long….right? Right? *crickets chirping*

Texas 20 Kansas State 17
ATS – Kansas State
SU – Texas

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