The Week That Will Be (09.03.2011)

Last Week: 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU
For the Year: 0-0 (.) ($) ATS 0-0 (.) SU

What we learned this off-season:

We learned that you can ride on a yacht and party with strippers and get a one game suspension, but you trade in an autographed glove and you’re getting five games. Nice consistency, NCAA……We learned that Texas A&M has self-esteem issues that will only be exasperated by joining a conference where they have no ally and everyone is just using them for their hot mom (recruiting in Texas)…..Meanwhile we learned that it is a good possibility that Texas can replace the Aggies on the schedule with Notre Dame. That is like losing your annoying little brother and getting a prom date with the hot drill team captain all in the same day….We learned that Auburn was cheating, we learned that Oregon was cheating, we learned that the guy in Section 4A, Row 4, Seat 3 was cheating on his wife, the hot dog guy was cheating on his taxes, the parking lot attendant was cheating people out of money by making a fake sign, Gene Chizik was cheating gravity by carrying a stone block on his shoulders; if you ain’t cheating, you ain’t playing in the national championship game, apparently…..and finally, we learned that Rachel McCoy doesn’t like Twitter after all.

Anyhow…

“If we can’t live together…we’re going to die alone.” – Jack Shepherd, LOST

One day when I am old and gray* and regaling my grandchildren with tales of how Texas won an unprecedented 10 national championships in a row while overtaking Michigan for all-time win numbers, fueled by the cloning of David Ash and his four Heisman trophy self, I’ll likely leave out the year 2010 unless I want to give some background on how Manny Diaz and Major Applewhite ascended to the throne when they made a drunken barroom bet that Diaz could win a certain number of national championships, would then retire, and Applewhite would try to overtake him.

The joke is on them, however, as they end up tying each other with five, leading to the most watched event on the Longhorn Network in the entity’s short history, Thumb Wrestling with Manny and Major.

(* anyone else have to Google gray every time they use it to make sure they don’t sound like an Englishman? Yeah, me neither.)

It is hard to pinpoint where it all went wrong in 2010, but only because Vegas has about 20 items on the LED board with odds on where it went wrong. Perhaps it was the erroneous decision to go with a pro-style offense even though new starting quarterback Garrett Gilbert was the most prolific passer in Texas high school football history (but c’mon, Texas doesn’t have much high school football history, does it?), perhaps it was the failed running game that made the decision to go to a pro-style offense even more baffling, perhaps it was the offensive line that was more concerned with “having fun” and making reporters laugh every Wednesday instead of going out and blocking somebody (which, by the way, made the decision to go to a pro-style offense even more foolish), perhaps it was a wide receivers corps that included guys known for dropping big passes and guys that bragged after the season about not working out (who may or may not have spent this Summer wearing a fleur de lis on his headgear in camp).

Maybe it was said quarterback who didn’t take command of the huddle when things went wrong, who didn’t demand respect from his offensive line when he was knocked down yet again without getting helped up yet again.

Maybe it was a defense that (how do I put this kindly), took some plays off midway through the season when it was apparent that the offense was a failure instead of buckling down and doing their job like a number of fine defenses with bad offenses have done in the past.

Maybe it was a coaching staff that instead of buckling down and doing their jobs for which they are rewarded handsomely decided to have Wrestlemania in the locker room following a loss to Iowa State complete with Benny Hill music playing while the offensive coordinator flies through the Spanish announcers table*. Maybe it was the same coaching staff that had the recruiting range of an Uncle Rico pass since the national championship and took only one running back in a particular class who, to their credit, is now in our two-deep….at defensive end. Perhaps it was the same coaching staff that was more interested in telling their agent they needed a new job instead of calling in a player to coach him up for a make or break game at the end of the season.

(*embellished)

No, when you look at 2010, you see a season where you wonder how bad it might have been if we didn’t have targets such as Rice and Florida Atlantic that even Chris Brown wouldn’t have had the heart to throw a punch at. It was a disaster, an unmitigated failure that left Tommy Tuberville and Bo Pelini meeting halfway somewhere in Kansas ordering shots of cheap whiskey from the bartender while they stroke their three day-old beard and mutter about how in the hell they lost to Texas last year while shielding their eyes when someone lets in the garish light of day.

Last year was about as bottom as it hopefully gets in Austin, but the good news is that we live in Fickle, USA where your national perception can turn on a dime.

That work began back in December when Mack Brown jettisoned longtime assistant coaches and replaced them with some of the best names in the business that on average were 11 years younger than their predecessors. Gone was the complacent staff that wore the same shirt every Wednesday, in were young guys with something to prove and the excitement of working at the University of Texas.

Boise State has led the charge in offensive innovation in recent years, so offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin was brought in to bring those fresh ideas to Texas. Darrell Wyatt was hired away from Kansas because he is one of the best at his position and because he is a dynamic recruiter who will get on the road and get the job done. Stacy Searels was hired to renovate an offensive line that has been an embarrassment since the national championship days.

Manny Diaz was Harsin’s defensive equal at Mississippi State, throwing out the old rules of defensive football and introducing an aggressive fire zone defense that befuddled SEC coaches so much that they gave Mack Brown glowing references when he called them about Diaz to get him out of the conference. Bo Davis was hired away from Alabama to teach our defensive tackles that it is okay to have more than one on the team.

One of the most important hires was Bennie Wylie as Strength and Conditioning coach in charge of football. Gone are the days of the strength and conditioning coach watching telenovelas in his office with his feet propped up on the desk and a box of donuts perched on his stomach while his senior players play Angry Birds instead of lifting weights. In are the days of former UT players that are now in the NFL tweeting that Wylie’s workouts are some of the hardest they’ve ever seen, a freak that runs with every group during the day, lifts weights with his defensive linemen, does push-ups for fun and then goes and saves a box of puppies from a burning building just to keep active. Want proof of Wylie’s skills? Senior linebacker Kennan Robinson bench pressed 385 pounds last summer…this summer that number is 455 pounds.

But you could have the 1992 Green Bay Packers coaching staff (Holmgren, Mariucci, Reid, Rhodes, Jauron, Gruden) take over the team and it wouldn’t improve that much if the roster wasn’t improved. Significant holes at the skill positions on offense were evident, as was attrition to graduation in the secondary. Poor habits in recruiting led to a dearth of upperclassmen that could contribute to a winning team, thus the old standard of “bleeding for the program” was shown the door for the *gasp* novel concept of having players earn their spot on the depth chart, no matter what class they were.

That direction in the Spring and Summer camps led to more than two dozen underclassmen being named in the two deep released this week, including Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron at running back and Jaxson Shipley and John Harris at wide receiver. Upper classmen on the offensive line were passed up by guys like Dominic Espinosa and Trey Hopkins. Defensive guys like Quandre Diggs and Adrian Phillips found themselves with early playing time as well.

Of course the most visible and most interesting roster decision would be who would be the quarterback against Rice. While Gilbert is the most celebrated, he had the worst year for a Texas quarterback since…Richard Walton? Marty Cherry? Gilbert threw 17 interceptions to only 10 touchdowns. He failed to impress anyone in the Spring Game, and early reports in albeit closed to the public Summer practices had him lagging behind Case McCoy and true freshman David Ash in the quarterback battle.

Midway through summer camp, however, McCoy started to show that last names don’t earn starting jobs and Ash started to actually act like a true freshman while Gilbert began to show signs of grasping the reins and running. He had a solid second scrimmage followed by a solid week of practice and therefore was named the starting quarterback by Harsin earlier this week…to a round of face palms by some Texas fans.

But if we’re to blame Greg Davis for everything from the failed offense in 2010 to the debt ceiling crisis to Rebecca Black releasing “Friday” to Wally Pryor getting fired to shooting J.R. Ewing, we must accept the fact that Gilbert could have simply been the victim of a failed transition to a different offense, one the offensive coordinator didn’t even want to run, a failed running game and the worst offensive line in the Mack Brown era at Texas.

Gilbert will surely have a short leash in 2011, and he damn well should after showing the propensity for turning the ball over in 2010. We are giving everyone a clean slate this year, but at the same time that means that hardly anyone has any capital built up with this team as well.

It is time to progress from Texas high school legend to viable starting quarterback for the University of Texas, and obviously this coaching staff believes that he can do just that…and without seeing one practice this summer, shouldn’t we be inclined to trust this “super staff”?

Gilbert will be fine. The offensive line is better, the running game is showing signs of life, and he has viable targets that want to catch the ball. He has two fine teachers for the position in Harsin and Applewhite. Unlike last year, he has every resource available to him. It isn’t like he forgot to play football in the last three years. It is sink or swim time. Swim, and you can become a Longhorn legend and every bad thing is forgotten. We’ve learned that from your two predecessors. Sink, and well, the team has other options.

Obviously this year is a crossroads year for Mack Brown and the Texas program. Brown has built enough credibility here to plan his own exit strategy, but at the same time the program sits on the precipice of falling into the same trap of mediocrity that befell Nebraska, Miami, Michigan and Florida State in the past decade. While nobody realistically expects this team to challenge for a conference title or a BCS Bowl berth, that should certainly be the goal of a prestigious program that should never strive for anything less.

There is no fall guy on the coaching staff this year. The talent is better. This squad will be as well prepared physically and emotionally going into the season as any dominant Texas team that preceded it in the modern era.

But what about the mental state? Is this team prepared to bind together, to put individual goals on the backburner while Texas football is reconstructed from the ground level up?

It appears so. They are saying all the right things. But we shall see for ourselves starting Saturday come 7 o’clock central.

Live together…or die alone.

On to the games...

South Florida @ Notre Dame -10.5:

Skip Holtz, who can actually speak English, brings his South Florida Bulls (made up, HBO fake college name) to South Bend for the first ever meeting between these two schools. It is year two for Brian Kelly, who looks to build upon last year’s bowl win over Miami. Dayne Crist is back under center for the Fighting Irish, who return 9 starters on offense for a team that was inconsistent on offense last season.

BJ Daniels is the quarterback for South Florida (UT fan favorite Darrell Scott will get time at tailback for USF), and while talented, he is hobbled and the Bulls will likely need him to be outstanding to go into South Bend and escape with a win. Look for Notre Dame to win…but South Florida keeps it close.

Notre Dame 27 South Florida 20
ATS – South Florida
SU – Notre Dame

Boise State -3.5 vs. Georgia:

Boise State is no stranger to marquee openers, having beat Oregon in 2008 at Autzen and Virginia Tech last year at FedEx Field. This year, however, they are the favorite (at least ranking-wise) and have to feel a bit like the hunted at this point.

Boise is known for great offense, but their defense finished second in the country last year and they return seven starters from that squad, including five in the front seven. Georgia, decimated by attrition and injury at running back won’t be able to beat the Broncos on the ground.

Georgia? How knows? They went 6-7 last year, finishing the regular season winning five out of seven with their only losses coming to Florida in overtime and at Auburn. But those wins were against Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Idaho State and Georgia Tech. They then fell completely on their face against Central Florida, losing 10-6 in the Liberty Bowl.

If Georgia pulls off the upset here they might have recovered from a couple of down years, but people keep counting out Boise and they keep rising to the occasion. Kellen Moore is for real, while Andy Murray….the jury is still out.

Boise State 28 Georgia 17
ATS – Boise State
SU – Boise State

LSU -4 vs. Oregon:

This was to be the Jordan Jefferson vs. Cliff Harris show until Jordan Jefferson auditioned for the Dallas Cowboys’ open placekicker job in a Baton Rouge establishment and Cliff Harris went out with Cheech and Chong then decided to audition for NASCAR on a quiet Oregon highway. Okay, it was never a battle involving Jefferson, but I couldn’t shoehorn that joke in there without that premise. Feel free to pepper the word allegedly throughout that paragraph.

All the talk is about Oregon’s backfield, but they lost three starters on an offensive line that requires smarts and repetition. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some growing pains while that line gels. Also troublesome for Oregon is the fact that they don’t have the best record away from Autzen Stadium, having lost to Boise State and Stanford on the road in 2009, losing to Ohio State in the 2010 Rose Bowl and last year’s BCS Championship Game to Auburn. Their next big win away from Oregon will be their first, and do you really trust that win to come against a big SEC opponent?

However, LSU has their own troubles, making a late run for the Fulmer Cup this summer. Jarrett Lee gets the start at quarterback, and if it seems like he has been there forever, he has, having started for LSU before the Louisiana Purchase went through and opened up the recruiting fields.

Seriously though, LSU’s defense returns seven starters to a unit that held Auburn to 24 points and kept the Aggies to seven second-half points in the Cotton Bowl. They have fast, athletic linebackers and defensive backs, so if the Oregon line does open holes for the backfield they should have the personnel to keep them at the second level.

Lee manages the game and LSU comes up with the win….but by how much?

LSU 20 Oregon 17
ATS – Oregon
SU – LSU

TCU -5.5 @ Baylor:

Casey Pachall replaces Andy Dalton under center, some questions about his maturity linger, but he has taken command of the huddle this summer and has shown the ability to step right in for Dalton with minimal drop-off. The question is an offensive line that features a converted tight end starting at left tackle and has the potential to be a landmine.

Baylor is set-up to have their best season in school history if their defense (led by new coordinator Phil Bennett) doesn’t get in the way. They set offensive records last year for total offense (6,179 yards), passing yards (3,649) and total points (405)and return Robert Griffin III and four starters on the offensive line that have 77 starts between them. They did lose Josh Gordon to stupidity and Jay Finley to graduation, but Kendall Wright can be a top receiver and a running back by committee will work when you have the talent at other positions.

TCU isn’t the dominant team that they were last year, but they still have the talent to make a decent run. Baylor has to win a game against a top opponent until people start to take them seriously. They lost this game in Fort Worth last year, 45-10.

TCU 34 Baylor 21
ATS – TCU
SU – TCU

SMU @ Texas A&M -15.5:

In one of the more interesting games of the weekend, we get to see how Texas A&M likes being the hunted, how they handle the raised expectations and more importantly, how they handle the distractions of the SEC movement? A&M could have snuck up on some people last year, especially when Ryan Tannehill was handed the job at mid-season with little fanfare, but this year teams have had a full off-season to study tape and prepare.

This is June Jones’s fourth year at SMU, and while the Mustangs have been to back-to-back bowl games, there is a feeling that you would have hoped there would have been more at this point. The Mustangs lost five of their last eight games last year, including a 16-14 loss to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl in their own stadium. If the Mustangs are to make the next step, which they hope is a shot at Big 12 membership, they’ll need to have a breakthrough season. That could get an excellent start with a win at Kyle Field.

The trouble is that SMU hasn’t won a non-conference road game since 1998, hasn’t beaten Texas A&M since 1984 and is only 3-9 in non-conference games under Jones.

If there was a problem with the Aggies last season (well, despite the obvious), it was their pass defense. They ranked 89th in the country, allowing 234 yards per game. And that was with Von Miller pressuring the quarterback.

Look for A&M to put up some points, but SMU can too. If SMU keeps a handle on the football, this one could still be somewhat of a contest in the fourth quarter.

Texas A&M 34 SMU 20
ATS – SMU
SU – Texas A&M

Rice @ Texas -24:

Rice has some weapons that should be able to give them a good enough season to feel good about themselves and possibly get into bowl eligibility.

But c’mon.

Texas has a lot of questions, but they should still be able to steamroll a team like Rice, especially when everyone on this roster has been looking forward to this game since Thanksgiving night of 2010, and every coach has had it circled since January. This is no warm-up game, it is a confidence builder to set the stage for a tougher than usual September slate against BYU and UCLA.

What should we want to see here? Obviously we’d like to see Gilbert have a great game, not a solid game, a great game, while showing that we have a viable rushing attack that can do what it is supposed to do against lesser squads. We would like to see a defense be aggressive yet disciplined, getting to the quarterback without the secondary looking completely lost with the air-raid Cougars coming to town next week.

Texas 38 Rice 7
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas