The Week That Will Be (10.31.09)

Last Week: 5-1 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 23-24-1 (.489) ($340) ATS 33-15 (.688) SU

What we learned last week:

We learned that Alabama can block field goals with their armpits, Lane Kiffin can be a moron, Tennessee can out-gain the Crimson Tide by 80 yards and Kirk Herbstreit can say with a straight face that it was an impressive win…

We learned that if TCU can make BYU look like a total fraud, and that Gary Patterson will be a very rich man very soon…

We learned that Tim Tebow can take the media attention when they’re praising him, but runs away like a little school girl when things go rough. Take a lesson from Colt McCoy, 8lb6ozLordBabyTebow, who had a bad outing against Oklahoma, couldn’t talk because he was sick but still managed to conduct an interview on the field after the game. The media has made you and now you turn your back on them. Classy…

We learned that apparently “fat little girlfriends” are the reason that Texas Tech gave up 321 yards to a Texas A&M team that even after that game only averages 180 yards on the ground…

We learned that Todd Reesing mistakenly thought that Kansas was wearing white at home as he threw 3 interceptions in the first half against Oklahoma. Someone told him at halftime that they were wearing blue…

And finally, we learned that you don’t schedule Texas for homecoming, nor do you give the Longhorn receivers a 10 yard cushion all night…

Anyhow…

It seems appropriate that the Longhorns travel to Stillwater on Halloween weekend, because Boone Pickens Stadium has been a nightmare…for both teams.

Mack Brown’s Longhorns have traveled to Stillwater five times, and in four of those contests they have had to comeback from a significant deficit in order to win the ballgame.

In 2001, the Horns hit the road following a 14-3 loss at the hands of the Sooners. The Longhorns were down 10-0 less than 7 minutes into the game after a Rashaun Woods TD reception from OSU QB Aso Pogi. The first quarter ended and the Longhorns still hadn’t scored, but they quickly scored 31 points in the second quarter and scored 45 unanswered points until Oklahoma State ran a kickoff back late to make the final score 45-17. The game was best known as Cedric Benson’s first start, where he rushed for 131 yards on 31 carries the week after only getting one snap against Oklahoma.

In 2003, the Longhorns traveled to Stillwater, coming off a 31-7 spanking of #12 Nebraska. The Longhorns fell down 16-7 in the second quarter and trailed 16-14 at halftime. The Longhorns quickly turned that around in the second half, scoring 27 points in the 3rd quarter, highlighted by a Michael Huff 27 yard interception return for a touchdown. The Horns won 55-16 behind 309 yards rushing, led by Cedric Benson with 186 yards and Vince Young with 97.

In 2005, Texas came to Oklahoma State steamrolling every prior opponent with the exception of Ohio State. The Longhorns the week before had disposed of #10 Texas Tech 52-17, had passed USC in the BCS standings and were expected to quickly dispose of 3-4 Oklahoma State, who was 0-4 in Big 12 play. Oklahoma State scored on a 4th and 1 from the Texas 49 on their second possession with a TD pass to D’Juan Woods. Texas took the ball on the next drive and scored a touchdown, but the David Pino kick was blocked, and the Longhorns still trailed 7-6.

The Cowboys scored a touchdown on their next drive, and then scored another touchdown after a Vince Young interception. The Longhorns sandwiched two field goals around another OSU touchdown and they headed to the locker rooms at halftime down 28-12.

Early in the second half, though, it happened. One of the signature plays of the Vince Young era, as he rolled right, started to run and faked an OSU defender who jumped about 15 feet in the air as Young jogged 80 yards to a touchdown.



After that, you pretty much knew how the rest of the half was going to go, as the Longhorns scored four more touchdowns and left Stillwater with a 47-28 victory on their way to a national championship.

In 2007, Texas came into the game with 2 losses, and would have lost the week before against Nebraska were it not for a ridiculous 4th quarter by Jamaal Charles, who rushed for 216 yards and had touchdown runs of 25, 86 and 40 yards.

Texas again quickly fell behind 7-0 to Oklahoma State on a Dantrell Savage 4 yard run, and then 14-0 when Colt McCoy was picked off by Jacob Lacey and returned 39 yards for an interception. A Zac Robinson 7 yard run early in the second period made it 21-0 Oklahoma State, and it looked like the rout was on.

The Longhorns scored on two straight possessions as Jamaal Charles had a 22 yard run and Jermichael Finley caught a 20 yard pass from Colt McCoy. But Oklahoma State roared back, scoring with no time left in the first half on a 1 yard pass to Brandon Pettigrew, and Oklahoma State took a 28-14 lead to the locker room.

The third quarter belonged to Oklahoma State, who drove 94 yards and scored on a 28 yard pass from Robinson to Adarius Bowman. When the fourth quarter began, the Longhorns were down 35-14 and they appeared to be dead in the water.

But the 4th quarter belonged to the Horns. Charles scored from 18 yards out with 11:40 left on the clock, and then the Horns got the ball on their own 1 yard line on their next possession, moved it out of the shadow of their own goalposts, and Charles again scored on a 75 yard run.



The Longhorns had another 90+ yard drive in them, this one capped off by a Vondrell McGee 1 yard run as the Horns tied it up with 3:22 remaining in the game. The Cowboys had a 40 yard pass to Savage and set up for a 32 yard field goal with 1:13 left in the ballgame. Once again, it appeared the game was over, but once again the Longhorns were bailed out when the Jason Ricks field goal sailed to the right, no good.

Colt McCoy and the Horns drove down the field, highlighted by a 30 yard pass to Finley and a miraculous scramble by McCoy to give Texas a first down at the OSU 27 with 23 ticks left on the clock. A Jamaal Charles 4 yard gain later, and the Horns called a timeout with 2 seconds left on the clock and set up for their own field goal at the OSU 23. Ryan Bailey, who won a game at Nebraska with no time on the clock the year before, did it again, and the Horns escaped Stillwater with a 38-35 win.

All in all, in the 2003, 2005 and 2007 contests the Longhorns outscored OSU 110-0 after the Cowboys had scored their last point. And we haven’t even talked about the 56-35 win at home in 2004 where the Longhorns were down at one time 35-7. Add that one in, and the Longhorns outscore them 159-0.

So what does this trip down memory lane tell us? Weird things happen in Stillwater. We’re used to hearing that about Lubbock, and plenty weird happens there too, but there is no way, no how that the Longhorns can take this game lightly. Win this one, and the schedule is arguably challenge-free on their way to Pasadena.

And make no mistake this Oklahoma State team is more talented than any other OSU team that we have played with the possible exception of the 2007 squad. Where are they if they don’t have the unlucky interception returned for a touchdown against Houston? They’re probably Top 5 in the country and this game is already hyped more than it is.
But, and we have to mention this, this is Oklahoma State we’re talking about here. This isn’t Texas Tech, where Mike Leach has beaten Mack Brown twice and Bob Stoops twice as well. Mike Gundy is 0-8 against Stoops and Brown at Oklahoma State and are still looking for their signature win there in their annual Biggest Game in the History of Oklahoma State.

It could come on Saturday, but as we’ve seen before, when the chips are down, the good teams rise to the top while the untested falter. Oklahoma State seems pre-occupied this week with talk of BLACK-OUTS and what uniforms to wear and selling out Boone Pickens Stadium for the first time since it has been remodeled (by the way, why is that???).

But Oklahoma State shouldn’t need that false motivation to beat Texas. They’re better than that. Or maybe they know they’re not.

Win on Saturday, and the Longhorns are overwhelming favorites to return to Pasadena in the first week in January. Lose, and well, it is going to take an Oklahoma State-like comeback to get there.

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Nebraska Football hosted the event Christmas in October.

Iowa State Football attended the event Christmas in October.

Tim Tebow attended the event Christmas in October and I Can’t Handle Failure.

Notre Dame is pissing everyone off with this luck of the Irish thing.

Idaho was hoping nobody realized we gave up 70 to Nevada.

Leigh Tiffin is wondering where he is in the Heisman polls.

Texas State is wondering why everyone finds it difficult to score on TCU.

On to the games...

Indiana @ Iowa -17.5:

If you would have told me before the season that I would be writing about Indiana/Iowa on Halloween weekend I would have asked you what happened to the other 118 teams. But it is what it is…

And what it is is that Iowa is missing starting running back Adam Robinson and offensive lineman Dace Richardson for the season after injuries during Saturday’s game at Michigan State. Of course we’re talking about a rushing offense that is ranked 91st in the country, so perhaps it isn’t a huge loss.

There is a question how good Iowa actually is. The computers love them, but they also let you go to a porn site if you’re one letter off your grandmother’s sewing website, so how smart are they? Iowa has the obvious edge here, but expect a bit of a let down after three straight emotional games, the last two being of the come from behind variety.

Iowa 24 Indiana 13
ATS – Indiana
SU – Iowa

Georgia v. Florida -15:

This is a game that Georgia coach Mark Richt needs. The Bulldogs are 4-3, and a victory over the defending champion Gators (again) would do a lot to quiet down any whispers about his job security in Athens.

The problem is that Florida has absolutely owned Georgia in recent times. Georgia is 3-16 against Florida since Steve Spurrier arrived in 1990, with Richt responsible for 6 of those losses.

Florida destroyed Georgia 49-10 last year, but Georgia actually outgained Florida 398-373, but turned the ball over four times. But last year is last year, and Florida has shown to be atrocious at throwing the football, and the problems on Georgia’s defense are in the passing game. Their rush defense is actually respectable.

Florida wins, but like most of their games lately, it is closer than most think.

Florida 31 Georgia 17
ATS – Georgia
SU – Florida

USC -3 @ Oregon:

This one is going to be a barnburner. Somehow Oregon is winning without anything from the quarterback position. Jeremiah Masoli has not thrown for 1,000 yards and has only rushed for 272 yards. They’re doing it behind a running game that averages 210 yards per game and a defense that is only giving up 297 yards a game.

For USC, don’t expect Matt Barkley to be intimidated by a raucous Autzen Stadium crowd. Barkley has already won at the Horseshoe in Columbus, at Berkeley and in South Bend this year. His stats aren’t great, but they are very solid, good enough for 17th in the country in passing efficiency.

The Ducks have faced one defense this year that ranks in the Top 20 in total defense, and that was Boise State. The Ducks only managed 152 total offense that day, and if any of you think that Boise State’s defense is better than USC’s, raise your hand. USC ranks 5th in the country in rushing defense and get after the quarterback, ranking 1st in the country in sacks and 2nd in the country in tackles for a loss.

USC has had their conference loss this year. It isn’t happening again. Oregon has benefited from a weak schedule, and won’t be prepared.

USC 31 Oregon 14
ATS – USC
SU – USC

Iowa State @ Texas A&M -7:

Both teams are coming off landmark wins. I’m still trying to figure out how Iowa State didn’t score more than 9 points when Nebraska turned the ball over 8 times, but whatever, they won, good for them. Texas A&M, meanwhile, steamrolled Texas Tech.

The Aggies will continue their show here. Iowa State has a weak defense, and have injury concerns at the quarterback and running back position.

Texas A&M 38 Iowa State 17
ATS – Texas A&M
SU –Texas A&M

Kansas State @ Oklahoma -28:

This is a tough one. Oklahoma definitely benefited from three Kansas turnovers last week, making the score a little more lopsided than it probably should have been. The Sooners struggled running the ball, and they’re still not sure whether or not Demarco Murray will be able to play.

KSU QB Grant Gregory has won every game he has started this year, but Oklahoma is a different animal with their 27 game home win streak. The Sooners win here, but Stoops takes it easy on his former boss Bill Snyder.

Oklahoma 34 Kansas State 10
ATS – Kansas State
SU – Oklahoma

Texas -9 @ Oklahoma State:

First, it is important who is out for Oklahoma State. WR Dez Bryant has been ruled ineligible by the NCAA for meeting with Deion Sanders and then lying about it, and RB Kendall Hunter is going to be limited this week (if you believe Mike Gundy). Hunter ran for 161 yards and had 192 yards of total offense last year against the Longhorns, so if he can’t go that is huge, while Bryant is a dynamic player who can break open the game on one play.

That isn’t to say that Oklahoma State doesn’t have solid guys that back them up. WR Hubert Anyiam, Bryant’s replacement as go-to receiver, has 19 receptions in the last two games. RB Keith Tolston has rushed for 326 yards in the three games since replacing Hunter.

But what Oklahoma State is missing this year, partially due to the loss of Bryant and Hunter, is the lack of playmaking ability on offense. In the last three games, the Cowboys have only two plays of 40 yards or longer, and those were both against Texas A&M. The longest run since Hunter went out? A 24 yard Tolston scramble against Baylor last week. The longest play from scrimmage this year for OSU is a 69 yard run against Grambling.

Compare those numbers to the 2007 game against Texas in Stillwater, where the Cowboys had two 26 yard receptions, a 28 yarder, a 40 yarder and a 44 yarder all in one game.

And, as we are all well aware, the 2009 Texas defense is light years ahead of the 2007 Texas defense. Texas has given up exactly two plays longer than 35 yards this year, a 75 yard pass for a touchdown against Louisiana-Monroe and a 64 yard screen pass to Demarco Murray against Oklahoma.

Can Oklahoma State nickel and dime their way down the field against Texas? Certainly. But I wouldn’t bet on it. In the last five games, the Longhorns have only allowed three third down conversions in the second half. The opposing team has only crossed the 50 yard line 3 times out of 28 possessions in the last four games.

And if you are worried about Oklahoma State starting strong (and what Texas fan wouldn’t be after the last three trips up there), the Cowboys have only scored 45 points in the first quarter this year in seven games. In comparison, a Texas offense that everyone thinks has stunk in the first quarter of games has scored 71.

The key, as always, will be the Longhorns getting pressure on QB Zac Robinson, who has been sketchy in big games. The Longhorns have knocked the quarterback out in three straight games (Gabbert for Missouri and Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford to injury, Colorado’s Cody Hawkins to ineffectiveness), so they’ll be gunning for Robinson, but Oklahoma State has only allowed four sacks all season. Temper your enthusiasm with that stat by keeping in mind that they have faced only one team with a dominating pass rush (Texas A&M is ranked 11th in the country in sacks), and the highest rated team in sacks after that is Georgia at 53rd.

So we’ve established that the Cowboys will be hard-pressed to move the ball on the Longhorns consistently, what will the Longhorns’ offense do?

Texas had an offensive breakthrough against Missouri last week, racking up 21 first quarter points and looking perhaps for the first time this year like the offense that we all expected to see coming into the year.

The turnaround was a direct result of a game plan implemented by Greg Davis. Davis estimated this week that of the 77 snaps that the Longhorn offense had on Saturday, about 60 featured the “11 package”, which has one tight end, one running back and three receivers. Malcolm Williams and Marquise Goodwin got their first start of the season, and Jordan Shipley was used mostly in the slot. The receivers were better, the run blocking was better and the pass protection was better.

OSU’s defense is about the same as it was last year. They are giving up about 16 yards more this year than they were giving up last year, but they are still only giving up 20 ppg this year, good for 36th in the country. But their pass defense has been terrible, giving up 253 yards passing a game, including 366 yards to Houston, 301 yards to Rice, 273 yards to Texas A&M, 325 to Missouri and 241 yards to Baylor.

Part of the reason for that is that they have had trouble getting to the quarterback, only registering two sacks in the past two games facing predominantly passing teams Baylor and Missouri. The Cowboys will have to be better in this game, because while Colt McCoy was beaten and bruised against Oklahoma, Texas coaches estimate that he only hit the turf four times against Missouri. Give him time and he’ll torch you, as Oklahoma State found out last year when they gave up 391 yards passing.

So how does Oklahoma State defend Texas? OSU defensive coordinator Bill Young is known as an aggressor, but the Cowboys are only blitzing 27% of the time this year, and Young has said that he prefers not to disguise coverages like Oklahoma did because he doesn’t like to confuse his own defense. So while OSU will probably mix in a few more blitzes than Missouri did, look for OSU to try to make Texas beat them through the short passing game and running the football.

OSU used the same defense against Missouri, and while Missouri had 300 yards of offense in the first half, they quickly wore themselves down and started to make mistakes, dropping passes and throwing interceptions. OSU will likely hope Texas will do the same.

While Oklahoma State is worried about selling tickets and black-outs and what color uniforms they will wear, Texas is worried about preparing to win a national championship. That tells you the difference in the two programs, and will be why Texas rolls to a victory in Stillwater on Saturday. The offense will continue their roll from Missouri, with the running game enjoying a very nice game and the defense continuing their dominating run.

Texas 31 Oklahoma State 16
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

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