Wednesday, November 19, 2008

The Week That Will Be (11.22.08)

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 6-0 SU
For the Year: 37-34-1 (.521) ($40) ATS 58-14 (.806) SU


What we learned last week: We learned that the SEC (Securities & Exchange Commission) is charging Mark Cuban with insider trading, but perhaps the SEC (South Eastern Conference) should charge their teams with insider trading of offensive gameplans. On a boring day of college football, Georgia and Auburn might have taken the cake…We learned that Alabama needs defense and special teams in order to beat Mississippi State, who is 3-7 and lost to Louisiana Tech. Other teams WANT to play Alabama right now…We learned that Mike Bianchi from the Orlando Sentinel says it best about Steve Spurrier right now: “Seeing Spurrier coming back to The Swamp and getting clobbered was like watching an aging Sinatra returning to the Sands and forgetting the words to ‘My Way.’…We learned that not even lasers pointed as his eyes from CU students (stay classy, Colorado) can stop Oklahoma State’s Zac Robinson, who now gets a week off before they face Oklahoma at home in what should be the biggest thing to hit Stillwater since the new Taco Bell…We learned that yes, the Aggies are this bad, and that yes, this time next year they’ll be discussing firing Mike Sherman. I only wish that the Bears would have kept that 34 point margin that they enjoyed going to the fourth quarter. Can the Aggies seriously look at themselves in the mirror and consider themselves the second best team in the state anymore?...And finally we learned that Colt McCoy is nails, Jordan Shipley can fly and that Will Muschamp’s defense played an outstanding ballgame, and there is (a lot) more of that to come for a long, long time on the 40 Acres.

Anyhow…

Ouch. Up $1130 in our imaginary (thank God) bank just four weeks ago, for the first time this season The Week That Will Be is in the red. I’m wondering if I can get a federal bailout for this?

Of course since Texas went up 14-0 with 11:13 left in the second quarter on Oklahoma State on October 25th, it has been a trying time for all Longhorn fans, if you count winning three ballgames and losing one “trying”. Michigan fans are probably shaking their fists at us from their front porches and calling us “whippersnappers” as I write this.

But as Michael Crabtree danced into the end zone preserving a 39-33 Texas Tech win over the Longhorns on the first day of this month, little did we know exactly how much agonizing and soul-searching all of us would do afterwards.

The fact of the matter is that the Longhorns are 10-1 (their illustrious 8th straight 10 win season) and ranked 3rd in the Bowl Championship Series standings, but I can’t sleep at night and I’m checking my Google Reader every 3 minutes to see if there is another Longhorn-related story telling me how we’re guaranteed to finish ahead of Oklahoma in the BCS standings shall they beat Tech, or a story telling me that Baylor has stolen all of Tech’s signals and are guaranteed to win in Lubbock on the 29th.

But none of that is coming, so I try to offer you what I can here:

Root for Texas to beat Texas A&M next week.

Okay if you didn’t know this one I can’t really help you. But we need to annihilate the Aggies, because at this point we need all of the style points that we can get. We’ll probably be a 4 touchdown favorite, and anything less than that would be a disappointment. Kill the Aggies, and try to at least cancel out a possible OU win over Oklahoma State the same weekend.

Root for Utah to win out.

You should know by now that if Tech, OU and Texas finish in a tie for 1st place in the Big 12 South that the one with the highest BCS ranking goes to Kansas City for the Big 12 Championship and has the inside track for the national championship.

So where does Utah fit in? Because Utah ranks below UT and higher than OU in three of the six BCS computers, we need them to win out. If they lose to BYU this weekend, then OU gets all of their computer love, while UT gets the shaft. Go Utes.

Root for Florida.

This one gets dicey.

If you’re worried about OU, root for Florida to win out, because Florida is between Texas and OU in four computers. If Florida wins out, they keep that buffer between the Longhorns and Sooners that will be needed when the computers spit out their data.

Now, if you are hanging on to the possibility that Texas can play Tech in the national championship game, by all means root for The Citadel (good luck) or Florida State to knock off the Gators, and then have Florida beat Alabama in the SEC Championship. The BCS still might take Florida in that situation, however.

Root for USC.

I know asking some Texas fans to root for USC is akin to asking Al Queda to root for good old fashioned Western values, but USC is above OU in one poll, and tied with them in another. For that matter root for Notre Dame and UCLA (USC’s final two opponents) to make USC’s schedule more attractive to the computers.

Went too far for some of you, didn’t I?

Root for Alabama.

It appears the best thing for Texas might be for the SEC to win out. Alabama is ahead of OU in two computer rankings (and still behind Texas), so we need them to stay on top as well.

Plus I think they’d be the easiest opponent we could face in Miami.

Root for Pittsburgh to beat Cincinnati.

Root for Dave Wannstedt and the Panthers to knock off Cincinnati this weekend. As ridiculous as it sounds, the Bearcats are 19th in the country in the BCS standings, which is good for OU since they beat them in Norman earlier this season. Pittsburgh has won the last three in this series, so we’ve got that going for us, which is nice.

Root for Air Force to beat TCU.

You should be rooting for the Air Force in wartime, anyhow, but again, TCU is ranked 16th in the country in the BCS rankings, so that helps OU, who beat them in Norman earlier in the season. Be warned that Air Force is a 19.5 point underdog, but hey, Meadow Soprano is also dating Turtle, so maybe hell is freezing over.

Root for Florida Atlantic to beat Arkansas State, UTEP to beat Houston, Rice to beat Marshall, and Arkansas to beat Mississippi State

Do you see what the BCS does? It makes us root for Arkansas and Oklahoma in the same weekend. If that isn’t a vote for a playoff system, I don’t know what is.

But it’s going to be close if Oklahoma wins out, so we need all the help that we can get.

And these scenarios are all about the computers. Who the hell knows what the human pollsters are going to do? The interesting thing will be when some of these teams start losing (and they will), and where the human votes go.

For example, if Texas Tech loses this weekend, where do all of their votes go? Do voters simply follow the status quo and move Texas up and Oklahoma up one spot? Or do the pollsters move OU in front of Texas? What if Florida were to lose to Florida State? Do the pollsters vote for the Tech/OU winner, or do they give votes to Texas?

We’re due for some good news. Stay tight Longhorn fans, it’s coming. Remember, I’m the guy that told you we were going to the Rose Bowl in the 2004 season to face Michigan when nobody else believed it, and I’m the guy that told you we wanted to play USC in the Rose Bowl in 2005 season.

And I’m the guy that is telling you were going to Miami, somehow, someway.

Of course I’m also the guy that’s lost $1170 in the last four weeks.

But don’t focus on that part.

Facebook News Feed

Fox and the BCS are no longer in a relationship.

BCS and the Rose Bowl wrote on Oregon State’s wall: “Please lose.”

Dezmon Briscoe and David Tyree are now friends.

Washington, Tennessee and Clemson cancelled the event Interviewing Will Muschamp.

Vanderbilt is wondering how the hell you’re supposed to play football in December or January, even!

Mark Mangino says everything is made better by ice cream.

On to the games...

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati -5:

Pittsburgh is an inexplicable 20 point loss to Rutgers away from an 8 game winning streak, while Cincinnati has won 7 of 8 themselves.

The Bearcats are on about their 12th quarterback of the year, but Dustin Grutza is working his way back, and Tony Pike was more than adequate in his time under center as well.

But with weather conditions expected to be in the 30’s on Saturday, this game is going to come down to who can run the ball, and that match-up goes to Pitt and LeSean McCoy, the nation’s 12 best rusher. Cincinnati can’t run the ball, and Pitt’s front seven is good enough to get pressure on whomever the quarterback might be at the time.

Pittsburgh 27 Cincinnati 23
ATS – Pittsburgh
SU – Pittsburgh

Michigan State @ Penn State -14:

Penn State really only played one good quarter last week, but it was enough to get a blowout win over hapless Indiana.

The player to watch in this game is Michigan State running back Javon Ringer. As he goes, so does Michigan State. If he’s able to find some running room and get more than 100 yards, then Michigan State has a chance, if he’s not, well then they’re not equipped to even come close to Penn State.

Penn State 30 Michigan State 17
ATS – Michigan State
SU – Penn State

BYU @ Utah -7:

BYU’s defense was playing as well as its offense earlier in the year, but starting with the loss at TCU, they have been scorched for 32 points to TCU, 35 to UNLV, 42 to Colorado State and 24 to Air Force.

Their offense has of course been good enough to make up for it, but Utah has had no such lapses.

Utah 38 BYU 30
ATS – Utah
SU – Utah

Michigan @ Ohio State -20.5:

Wow. I can’t remember the last time this game had no intrigue at all. In fact the only reason this game is in this column this week is for the second week in a row we have just dismal match-ups.

The Wolverines have been abysmal this year, but in the last ten years of this match-up, the biggest margin of victory has been 16 points. Of course that was when both teams were competitive, but I have a hard time believing Ohio State blows them out here.

Ohio State 34 Michigan 21
ATS – Michigan
SU – Ohio State

Mississippi @ LSU -3.5:

LSU somehow found enough offense to come back from a 28 point deficit to Troy last week, while Mississippi is riding a three game winning streak.

Mississippi hasn’t beaten LSU since 2001, but they have the rush defense to contain LSU and force Jarrett Lee to throw the ball, which is like taking candy from a baby this year.

Mississippi 27 LSU 21
ATS – Mississippi
SU – Mississippi

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma -7:

And finally we get to a game that means a shit.

By now, you’ve heard it all. Oklahoma is #1 in the country in scoring offense. Texas Tech is #3. Tech is #1 in passing offense. Oklahoma is #3. Tech is #2 in total offense. Oklahoma is #4.

The teams are very close, but give me Oklahoma due to the game being in Norman, and due to the fact that Texas Tech isn’t going to finish a season undefeated.

Right?

Oklahoma 44 Texas Tech 41
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Oklahoma

Random Hot Dallas Chick



For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for TWTWB’s bailout.

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