For the Year: 35-30-1 (.538) ($200) ATS 52-14 (.788) SU
What we learned last week: We learned that two Mountain West teams can play a very interesting ballgame that nobody in America actually received from their local cable or satellite company. And TCU is once again saying “maybe next year” with regards to their BCS hopes…We learned that apparently you can make a field goal in the first game of the season, not make any for two months, and then make one to knock off undefeated and second ranked Penn State. Daniel Murray probably did very well with the ladies on the Iowa campus last Saturday night, although judging by the 2006 Alamo Bowl, I’m not sure that is a good thing…Holy hell if LSU’s Jarrett Lee isn’t the worst quarterback in America, who is? The kid has thrown 14 interceptions this year, and 6 of them have been returned for a touchdown. That is the making of a bad sports movie starring Orlando Bloom as the back-up quarterback to a struggling quarterback, then the quarterback injures his knee, Bloom steps in, takes the guy’s job and his cheerleader quarterback and leads head coach Kurt Russell to a national championship. All we’re missing is for Lee to hit a mascot on the sideline with one of his ducks…The only thing funnier than the Aggies getting run in their own house is their website reporting that the Aggies won the game. Are the Aggies the 5th best program in the state of Texas? Who would you bid on winning a conference title first? Texas? Of course. Texas Tech? Um yeah. TCU? Probably. Baylor? Hell, why not, they’re a 8 point favorite this week…Welcome back to the future, the Oklahoma State team that we all know and love. You knew that Tech was going to get their yards, but really, OSU, you could only get a meager 360 yards? My stomach hurts…And finally, we learned that 8 guys can catch a pass, the Longhorns can get 494 yards, and we can still feel like it was a lackluster win that can be improved upon. Isn’t it great being a Texas fan? We tailgate with a beer with one hand and a bottle of Pepto-Bismol in the other.
Anyhow…
There is a heated debate sweeping the country, as a group of voters tries to decide who belongs in a sacred circle, and who will be left listening to Elton John records and crying their eyes out.
But enough about Prop 8, because this is a college football column and we have a decision to make on who makes the BCS National Championship game and who is left out.
First of all, let’s get rid of this tired notion that the national championship game will be a showdown of the Big 12 South and the SEC. Last year at this exact time, the BCS standings looked like this:
1. LSU (lost to Arkansas and still made it to the Championship game)
2. Oregon (lost Dennis Dixon, were last seen wearing ugly uniforms)
3. Kansas (lost to Missouri and then lost the “Slimmest Coach” competition)
4. Oklahoma (Lost to Texas Tech in Lubbock)
5. Missouri (Lost to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship)
6. West Virginia (Lost to Pittsburgh at home, kicker received more death threats than Martin Luther King Jr….but still came out ahead in that battle)
7. Ohio State (Lost to Illinois in second to last game)
8. Arizona State (Lost to USC on Thanksgiving)
9. Georgia (Won out…still didn’t get to the title game. Interesting.)
10. Virginia Tech (Won out…until the Orange Bowl)
So it might look set in stone that Alabama/Florida will play Texas Tech/Oklahoma/Texas, and last year might have been an aberration, but as the great John F. Kennedy said, we would like to live as we once lived, but history will not permit it.
Upsets will happen. Let’s take a look at the contenders.
1st and Goal
Alabama – SEC! SEC! SEC! For all the talk about how great the SEC is, Alabama has the worst schedule of all the contenders (56th), and that includes USC, who plays in the watered down Pac-10. But none of it matters because they are undefeated. If they win out, they’ll be in Miami, where Nick Saban wins lots of games. Oh wait. But, if Alabama were to lose to Mississippi State, or Auburn, or in the SEC Championship game, they probably don’t have the resume to make up the ground.
Texas Tech – Much like Alabama, Tech has one of the worst schedules of the contenders (34th), but again, it doesn’t matter because they are undefeated. Has anyone gone ahead and checked to see if the seas haven’t dried up and hell isn’t frozen over? The Red Raiders have somehow given up more points to Eastern Washington than they did Oklahoma State, scored more points against Texas than they did Nevada, didn’t cover the spread against SMU, somehow let UMass score 14 points, and they are within striking distance of Miami and a berth in the national championship game.
Would it really surprise anyone if Tech went to Norman next week and lost to OU by 30 points? It wouldn’t surprise me in the least bit. But it is what it is.
Sidenote: In their last two games, Texas Tech has 108 passing attempts. There have been zero holding calls against their offense. I’m not usually one that likes to bitch about the refs (except for the 2006 NBA Finals, F you David Stern), but that is just a startling stat. You could tell me that Amy Winehouse went a whole week without smoking crack and I would be less shocked. It’s just not possible.
2nd and 5
Texas – The Longhorns have the best schedule of all the contenders (1st), beat #1 Oklahoma, #12 Missouri and #7 Oklahoma State in consecutive weeks, was leading #5 Texas Tech with 2 seconds left to play despite not playing their best game, have a comparable offense and defense to their national title team in 2005 and still might have the worst shot of any of the Top 5 teams to get to Miami.
If Tech wins out, that’s bad for Texas. If Oklahoma wins out, that could be bad for Texas. If Alabama wins out, that’s bad for Texas. If Florida wins out, that is bad for Texas. It’s like the football Gods lured us in only to kick us swiftly in the groin…all because of a dropped interception and an improbable game winning play in Lubbock.
But take the noose off around your neck, unload the clip from the gun, step away from the ledge, spit up the cyanide tablet, and quit using the wireless internet in front of the bus, because all hope isn’t lost. The Horns probably want Alabama or Florida to lose before they get to Atlanta for the SEC Championship game (Alabama hasn’t beaten Auburn in forever and Florida DOES have to come back to Earth sometime and have to go to Tallahassee to play Florida State). And then they might want the team that loses to win the SEC Championship game. Notice I say “probably” and “might”. We don’t need a SEC team to lose, but it opens up the possibilities if they do.
Now, what we NEED to happen is this:
Scenario A: Oklahoma beats Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, a three way tie in the Big 12 South ensues. Texas wins on a matter of the tie-breaker being the team with the highest BCS ranking. Now this one is going to be close if Oklahoma wins out, so root AGAINST TCU and Cincinnati, OU’s biggest non-conference wins. The Horns go on to the Big 12 Championship game, take care of Missouri again, and go to Miami.
Scenario B: Texas Tech beats Oklahoma and Baylor, or Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma but Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State. Tech goes on to lose to Missouri. In this scenario, we leap-frog a falling Texas Tech and goes to Miami without winning their conference title. If that is going to happen any year, this is the year.
Get it? I’m sure there are other scenarios, but those two are the most prominent. Repeat with me. F TCU, F Cincinnati. F K-State and Nebraska, too, because OU played them and we did not.
Florida – Florida sits in the nice position of being 4th in the country, but sit in the driver’s seat for Miami. They don’t have the pressure of being #1 or #2, all they have to do is win out and they are probably in Miami. The Gators have South Carolina and the always dangerous Citadel (if you fear ROTC programs) and Florida State left on their schedule. They are probably due for a clunker game...but when will it come? And does anyone want to see smug Urban Meyer win another national title so soon after their last one? Does anyone want the smug SEC winning another one? Was anyone really surprised when Lance Bass declared that he was gay?
Oklahoma – Ugh. You mean to tell me that Texas could finish the season 11-1, with one of those wins being a 10 point win in the Cotton Bowl over #1 Oklahoma, and OU can still go to the Big 12 game, win there and go to Miami and play for the national championship? Who the hell is running this thing, the Joker? Will Batman save the day at any point now? Will Texas fans ever recover, or will there be a line to get to downtown office buildings and jump off of them? Will we even have to worry about it, the way OU plays in BCS bowl games? Who does Clay Aiken think he is fooling?
3rd and Long
USC – The Trojans are giving up 6.7 points per game. If they keep up that pace, it will be the greatest defensive effort in the history of college football. And they are 6th in the country. Who says offense wins games, but defense wins championships? Apparently somebody who’s team played in a playoff system. USC’s loss looked terrible at the time, but not so bad now (Oregon State is 6-3 and still controls their own destiny to the Rose Bowl), but it doesn’t matter, because they aren’t getting any help from their schedule, and are probably only this high because of their name brand. But who wouldn’t want to see what this defense could do against Texas Tech. Would you wager one dollar that Alabama could beat USC on a neutral field when they went to overtime last week with a team that had Bozo the Clown playing quarterback? I wouldn’t.
But it is what it is, and what it is is (holy hell say that 10 times fast) that USC lost a game, and have nobody to blame but themselves.
Like plenty of other teams will be saying this time next month.
Facebook News Feed
Jarrett Lee has joined the group We’d be better off punting every time.
College Football Fans are wasting everyone’s time drawing up inane playoff brackets.
Mike Leach is considering throwing a game so he wouldn’t have to interview with the Detroit Lions.
Charlie Weis has joined the group Maybe It is Me.
Joe Paterno doesn’t even know what a computer is, much less Facebook but hopes he’s around another year.
Stephen McGee is thinking I should have gone to Georgia.
Texas Tech and Satan are now friends.
Buck Burnette has left Facebook.
David Duke has left Facebook.
Archie Bunker has left Facebook.
On to the games...
Georgia -8.5 @ Auburn:
Georgia’s defense has taken a hit the last two weeks, giving up 49 points to Florida and 38 to Kentucky. That’s about the only hope that Auburn has, as their highest point total in a SEC game this year is 22 the scored against Arkansas.
Georgia is good enough to drub an Auburn team on the decline.
Georgia 31 Auburn 13
ATS – Georgia
SU – Georgia
Mississippi State @ Alabama -21:
Alabama is coming off an emotional week, had a rough, physical game on the road last week, are ranked #1 and aren’t used to it, and have been listening for a couple of weeks now about how good they are and how if they win out they are playing for a national title.
Perfect trap game, no? Yeah, if it wasn’t Mississippi State.
The Bulldogs have only won 3 games all year, and two of those were against directional schools from not very big electoral states (Southwestern Louisiana & Middle Tennessee State). But beware of the dogs (sorry), they do have a pretty good defense (pass defense #2 in the country, total defense #19)…
But that defense hasn’t shown up against good teams.
Alabama 31 Mississippi State 6
ATS – Alabama
SU – Alabama
South Carolina @ Florida -22:
This one could be interesting.
Steve Spurrier returns to The Swamp, where his Gamecocks lost a heartbreaker 17-16 in 2006 when Florida played Dikembe Mutombo against every kick they tried (I think a kickoff was even blocked).
Spurrier finally decided on a QB, and it will be Stephen Garcia and Chris Smelley. Hey baby, you knew I was a playa when you got in da game. South Carolina has won 6 of 7 since starting the season 1-2 (with the one loss coming to Bozo the Clown and LSU by 7 points). Can South Carolina pull off the upset?
Quite possible.
The Gamecocks haven’t allowed more than 24 points all year, and while they haven’t played an offense like Florida’s, it can be argued that Florida has yet to face a defense like South Carolina’s. And you know Spurrier wants this one.
But…they just don’t have the horses (or the human beings) to get it done here.
Florida 27 South Carolina 23
ATS – South Carolina
SU – Florida
Oklahoma State -16.5 @ Colorado:
Yikes this week’s match-ups suck if this is an ABC prime-time game. Don’t you know Brent Musberger did a double take when he had to read the promo for this game this week? Can’t we get some flex scheduling and have OU and OSU play this week, setting up next week’s game with Tech with everything on the line? Who do I talk to about this?
Oklahoma State 41 Colorado 24
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State
Texas A&M @ Baylor -8:
My, my, my.
Remember that fateful night in 2004 when Baylor shocked A&M by converting a two point conversion? Remember being giddy like a kid on Christmas morning, waiting to hear the play by play call from ultra-homer Dave South on the Aggie radio network? Remember giggling when later in the season someone wore a bear suit to DKR when the Aggies came to town?
Now, wouldn’t you be more shocked if A&M won this game?
The Aggies are giving up 448 yards a game on the road this year, which is more astounding when you consider that they’ve played 3 road games against Oklahoma State (ok, no shame there), New Mexico (oh no) and Iowa State (oh no). Baylor should be able to run on the Aggies…but can they stop Jerrod Johnson? Sure, he looked very ordinary against Oklahoma, but although OU’s defense is nowhere near their reputation, it is still better than Baylor’s.
Baylor sneaks one out here…and are upset about it.
Baylor 37 Texas A&M 31
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – Baylor
Texas -13 @ Kansas:
Can Texas avoid choking on the Thanksgiving turkey?
Texas lost to Texas A&M last November. To Kansas State and Texas A&M the November before that. It’s a disturbing trend, but one to have to consider and overcome.
Kansas has lost 3 out of their last 4, and they haven’t been pretty, as they gave up 674 yards to Oklahoma, 556 to Texas Tech and 495 to Nebraska. If Colt McCoy and the rest of the offense play up to their abilities, Texas should score at least 40 points.
On defense, Texas hopes to have Brian Orakpo back, and they will probably need him, as outside of the Texas Tech game where he threw 3 interceptions, Reesing has been solid, throwing for 23 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. On the flip side, however, he has thrown interceptions in 4 straight games.
The Kansas running game is nothing to worry about. They rank 68th in the country and have been ineffective much of the year.
And it’s going to be cold. High of 49 in Lawrence on Saturday, with 20 mph winds forecasted.
I like Texas with their short passing game and lots of Fozzy Whitaker in that situation.
Texas 45 Kansas 24
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas
Random Hot Dallas Chick
For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for bribes for college football poll voters.
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[ari gold] We're. So. Fucked.[/ari gold]
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