Last Week: 3-2 ATS 3-2 SU
For the Year: 42-45-3 (.483) ($750) ATS 63-27 (.700) SU
And it’s absurd how people hang on every word.
I’ll probably never get the props I feel I ever deserve- Eminem “Til I Collapse”
Here we go again. They’ll never learn.
#2. In most circles it is high praise. SMU, Baylor, Purdue, the list goes on, some teams would love to finish #2. They’d make t-shirts, praise the team and coaches for a spectacular season and demand the administration never let this coach go. But those are other programs.
To Texas, being number two is an insult. It is akin to a pat in the head and a “you’re good, but he’s better.”
In 2005, Texas knew they were damn good all year, but the media and coaches kept telling them, “you’re good, but he’s better.” Vince Young went to New York, put on his best suit, but got a pat on the head and was told, “you’re good, but he’s better.”
But on the night of January 4th, 2006, nobody was better than Vince Young and the Texas Longhorns.
USC was shocked. The national media was shocked. Hell, even some local media was shocked. But we had watched that team all year long and knew that if there was a team out there that was better than they were, they’d better be damn good when they met on the field.
And USC wasn’t up to the challenge.
Now, four years later, there is a clear #1, but a lot of the country doesn’t even think the Longhorns are good enough to be #2.
A lot of pundits wanted Cincinnati in the title game. They scored a lot of points, you see, and it didn’t matter that the other team put up a lot of points too, or that the other team was Southeast Missouri State, or Illinois (which ended up pretty much firing their whole coaching staff but the head coach) or that powerhouse football program up in Connecticut.
More pundits wanted TCU, a team that Texas swept the floor with two years ago with the worst team in the Mack Brown era at Texas. True, the 2009 Horned Frogs are a lot better than the 2007 team as well, but it is hard to tell when you’re playing Southwest Texas and SMU week in and week out.
The Mountain West has a pretty decent bowl season, and those same pundits are still bitching that TCU played in the Fiesta Bowl and Texas is in the championship game.
Or were, before last night.
If us Texas fans weren’t so damn arrogant, you’d really be giving us a complex, America.
Make no mistake about it, Alabama deserves all (most) of the accolades they receive. They’re a fine program with a fine coach with a defense that is statistically the best in the nation. They have the Heisman Trophy winner (ahem) in the backfield and a general under center that reminds many of a certain running backs coach from Texas.
But, if you’re like me, you’re wondering why a quarterback that has won 45 games is being best remembered for a play that while foolish, didn’t matter in the grand scheme of things. You’re wondering why a defense that has been as good as any in the country doesn’t even get a mention when people talk about this game. You’re wondering why Alabama is praised for the Florida game, but dodges criticism about the Tennessee, Auburn and LSU games. You’re wondering why a correct call (putting one second back on the clock against Nebraska) is talked about at length while an incorrect call (LSU’s interception in the fourth quarter) isn’t discussed at all. And most of all, you’re wondering why a team that has won 25 out of their last 26 games is being talked about like they’re last week’s trash.
But, if you’re like me, you also like it. Let them talk up Alabama while they pat Texas on the head and say, “you’re good, but they’re better.” The Trojan football team that one classic Longhorn message board post compared to the Trojan Army was defeated by The Eyes of Texas.
And I feel pretty damn good about our chances in this one, too.
We’ll enter the Rose Bowl on Thursday ranked second in the country. Nobody can take that away from us, no matter how much they want to. Colt McCoy put on his best suit and went to New York and was told, “you’re good, but he’s better.” Nobody can take Ingram’s Heisman away…
But we can damn sure make it meaningless. Just like Reggie’s.
Let them talk (and Alabama has done plenty of it this week).
We’ll take that #1 ranking. And our second national championship of the decade.
How ironic.
I will not fall,
I will stand tall,
Feels like no one could beat me.
On to the game...
Texas v. Alabama -4:
Enough hype, let’s get to the match-ups.
WHEN TEXAS HAS THE BALL
First of all, get it out of your head that the Nebraska and Alabama defenses are in any way similar. Nebraska gets most of their pressure from their front four. They were able to keep seven guys in coverage for most of the game. Seven guys going against 4 receivers, and it is easy to see why our offense had trouble most of the game.
Alabama has no such luxury. They run a 3-4 defense where the nose tackle clogs the middle and allow the linebackers to make the plays. Nebraska’s defensive line had 30 plus sacks this year, Alabama’s had 9. They have to rely on blitzing schemes (albeit very effective blitzing schemes), which leaves them wide open to a broken coverage if they face the right offense.
And yes, we have the right offense.
The one thing that jumps out about Alabama is their size on defense. They are built for the plodding, 12-10 games of the SEC. DT Terrance Cody is listed at 365 lbs. All-World middle linebacker Rolando McClain is 258 lbs. Their two safeties (Mark Barron and Justin Woodall) are 215 and 220 lbs.
Just for comparison, Rodderick Muckelroy is listed at 235 lbs. Blake Gideon is 200 lbs and Earl Thomas is 197 lbs.
How will Alabama’s size be able to hand the spread offense of Texas? It is hard to judge because hardly anyone besides Arkansas in the SEC runs a true passing spread offense, and Alabama completely shut them down. But nobody is going to mistake Ryan Mallet for Colt McCoy any time soon.
The Crimson Tide faced a similar spread offense last year against Utah, and failed miserably. Utah didn’t even need a rushing attack, as they only rushed for 13 yards but passed for 336 in their Sugar Bowl win over Alabama last year.
Don’t get me wrong. Alabama’s defense is outstanding, and they have plenty of speed. But if you’re looking for an edge we might have, it is there. McClain is an outstanding linebacker, but do you really see a 258 lb linebacker being able to cover Dan Buckner or Jordan Shipley in the slot on crossing patterns? Do you see a 220 lb safety being able to run with Marquise Goodwin or Malcolm Williams on a deep pattern?
We talked about that aggression on defense with Alabama, and boy are they aggressive. Their team leader in tackles behind the line of scrimmage per game? CB Javier Arenas. Arenas also has five sacks. Alabama likes to blitz, and they like to bring it from everywhere on the field. Colt McCoy must work with his receivers to identify where the pressure is coming from and adjust to it. They didn’t do a good job of that much this year, but hopefully 30 plus days to prepare and watch film has prepared them for it.
With that aggressive style, Texas must be able to find the weakness on any particular play and attack it. This is a defense on which bubble screens, our favorite play, will work. Mis-directions will work. The shuffle pass will not work as long as Terrence Cody is in the game.
Up the tempo, get Cody on the sidelines drinking Gatorade, be the aggressor. That is how you beat Alabama’s defense. If you can run the ball, that is just an added bonus.
WHEN ALABAMA HAS THE BALL
No offense to Alabama and the Heisman Trophy winner, but I’m not sure we could have hand-picked an offense that I would have rather faced out of the contenders. Florida’s triple-option speed scared the crap out of me, but Alabama’s offense plays right into our strengths.
They’re a power rushing team that likes to mix it up with the play-action. That’s all there is to it. There isn’t much fluff here, and they obviously don’t need much fluff to run the table in the SEC.
Lucky for us, our last opponent had the same offensive scheme. Nebraska likes the power rushing of the SEC, and they did it well all year…until they played Texas. Nebraska’s offensive line is about the same size as Alabama’s, so don’t let anyone tell you that we haven’t faced an offensive line as big as Alabama’s this year.
Now, keep in mind that Alabama was much, much more effective in what they did versus what Nebraska did this season, but we don’t have to prepare for an offense that we’ve never seen before. Just sayin’.
Also keep in mind that Alabama ran all over the lightweights on their schedule (Florida International, North Texas, etc.) but averaged nearly 40 yards per game less against the quality teams on their schedule (Virginia Tech, Mississippi, LSU, Auburn and Florida).
Like I said, they don’t do a lot of fluff. They usually line up two wide receivers or two tight ends and two wide receivers, and they’ll throw a couple of four receiver sets out there, but they don’t throw to Ingram much (he only caught 30 passes in 13 games).
They rely simply on out-muscling you at the line of scrimmage and then mixing in a play action pass to a TE or WR Julio Jones. Jones had his struggles this year, but he has come on since the Tennessee game. In those six games, he has caught 30 passes. The secondary always needs to be aware of where he is on the field, and the first guy needs to be able to tackle him, or he can be very hard to bring down.
I’ve gone this far in the write-up without talking about their quarterback, and that is because Greg McElroy is consummate game manager, but won’t beat you on his own. He doesn’t run that much (only 110 yards rushing all year), and won’t wow you with his arm (his season high was the 291 passing yards against Arkansas), and won’t throw a lot of touchdowns. Outside of the South Carolina game where he threw for four touchdowns, his season high was the two against Virginia Tech.
We talked about what McElroy doesn’t do, but what he also doesn’t do is throw interceptions. He only threw four all year. Again, Alabama wants to run all over you, and if they start throwing the ball a lot, they’re in trouble.
SPECIAL TEAMS
With these two teams pretty even, this is where the game might be won.
Javier Arenas. He’s the best returner we’ll face this year, and it isn’t even close. Alabama is third in the country in punt returns and ninth in kickoff returns. Arenas has seven career punt returns for a touchdown. Be disciplined, hell kick the ball out of bounds, but do not let Arenas get the ball in space.
The good news is that Alabama stinks at covering kicks, too. They allowed kickoff returns for touchdowns in the first two games this year, and didn’t get that much better throughout the year. DJ Monroe and Marquise Goodwin should be able to change the tide (no pun intended) if they get the chance. They also only rank 78th in the country in punting.
Kickers are about the same. Leigh Tiffin is one of the best in the nation, but Hunter Lawrence has more than held his own this year, and is anyone going to be scared if he has to trot out there to kick a game winner?
INTANGIBLES
It sounds silly to say, but can Alabama separate themselves from beating Florida? They were amped up ever since they lost in the SEC Championship Game last year to play Florida. Did they get amped up too much for that game? Will they take Texas lightly after destroying mighty Florida? Add to the fact that they are 0-2 in BCS bowls, got whipped last year by Utah, and Saban himself is 4-6 in bowl games, and Alabama had better be in the right frame of mind and not be resting on any past successes.
Texas has the experience factor working for them, as well as a determined group of seniors that want what they felt they should have had last year.
SO WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN?
Well, there you have it. I’ve covered every conceivable match-up besides the Texas Pom against the Alabama cheerleaders (we win) and the Hellraisers against the houndstooth wearing co-eds (they win).
Call me crazy, but I have faith in our offense, in a quarterback that has set all sorts of school records, and an offensive coordinator that has been here and done it before. I like this match-up with Alabama, and while you always have to be careful of what you wish for, we’re also the best offense that they’ll face this year.
And I believe that Coach Muschamp can stop Mark Ingram in his sleep.
Light the tower orange, we’re bringing home number five.
Texas 27 Alabama 20
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas
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