The Week That Will Be (11.07.09)

Last Week: 3-3 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 26-27-1 (.491) ($370) ATS 38-16 (.704) SU

What we learned last week:

We learned that Iowa can turn the ball over 6 times, trail Indiana 21-7 at halftime, get the benefit of some curious decisions from the replay booth and some bored sportswriters and analysts will still argue that they belong in the discussion with Texas, Florida and Alabama…

We learned that Georgia is once again worried about what they’re going to wear on Saturday, while Florida is worried about winning a national championship. It was the best offensive outing in weeks for Florida, who finally turned those red zone drives into touchdowns instead of field goals.

We learned that I was completely wrong about USC/Oregon. Wow! The margin of defeat in that game (27) was more than the prior 7 defeats (26) that USC has had since 2004. The Ducks literally ran over the Trojans. Look for Oregon to promptly lose to Stanford this week (not really, but if they do, you heard it here first).

We learned that the Aggies can catch Texas Tech by surprise and batter a bruised Iowa State team, but we will learn if they are any good the next two weeks with road trips to Colorado (they haven’t won there since 1997) and Oklahoma.

We learned that Kansas State somehow has Oklahoma’s number offensively (they average 30 ppg against Stoops in 7 games), but they don’t need to fall down 21-0 before they even get a first down if they want to make a game of it.

And finally, we learned that Colt McCoy is never going to win the Heisman if the defense keeps scoring all of the touchdowns. But I’m sure he’ll take a trip to Pasadena over New York any day (and truth be told he’ll get both).

Anyhow…

Sadly, the end of Saturday’s games meant that the season was about 75% done. It seems like just yesterday we were sweating while watching….who was our first game? Maybe Roddrick Muckelroy can answer that question….”Florida Atlantic?”

No Roddrick, it was Louisiana Monroe, and the Longhorns won 59-20. Yes, the Warhawks scored more points than all but one Texas opponent, Texas Tech (24 on September 19th).

But anyways, now that we’re nearing the end of the college football regular season, we can take a look at the Friday Night Tailgate’s Bowl Predictions.

The Mike Leach Bowl: Fat Little Girlfriends vs. The Biggest Loser Contestants

We can promise a few things about this bowl. A.) They will run out of candy bars in the 2nd quarter; B.) There will be a lot of crying; and C.) John Madden would have a lot of fun marking the “sweat marks” in this one. Mark Mangino and Ralph Friedgen will coach the game.

The We Lost to Illinois Bowl: Michigan vs. Illinois State

Give it to Illinois, when they win, they win big. The Illini beat Illinois State 45-17 early in the year, and then beat Michigan last week 38-13. At least Illinois State has the FCS excuse…Michigan can just search “Rich Rodriguez contract” on Google and see how much this is going to cost them.

The Big 12 North Bowl: Missouri v. Iowa State v. Nebraska v. Kansas v. Kansas State

The Big 12 North mess doesn’t look like it will be solved anytime soon, so let’s just put them in a cage outside of The Death Star, and whoever emerges gets their ass beat by Texas. We’ll solve that dilemma and we’ll stimulate the steel chair and thumbtack market in North Texas. Win win.

The We Have Better Things to Do Bowl: TCU Fans vs. Oklahoma State Fans

TCU is ranked in the Top 5 in the BCS standings, enjoying perhaps their best season ever, and they attract 33,541 fans in a stadium that seats 44,008. Are you kidding me? And did I mention it was on Homecoming? Don’t go crying when Gary Patterson leaves after this season, Frog fans. And Oklahoma State, ranked 14th in the country, FINALLY sells out Boone Pickens Stadium for the first time this year. Really? What else was going on in Stillwater or Oklahoma City that OSU alumni couldn’t make the drive, drink a beer at Eskimo Joe’s and take in a team having one of their best seasons ever? I’m guessing nobody would travel to this game.

The Assaulting Coaches Bowl: New Mexico vs. Oakland

Yeah, Oakland is in the NFL, but c’mon, are they really? Anyhow, both coaches have been suspended this year, oh wait, no Oakland coach Tom Cable hasn’t been suspended for punching an assistant coach yet. Apparently writing something on Twitter is a bigger violation in the NFL. As for New Mexico coach Mike Locksley, I’d be punching people too if I couldn’t win a game. The Lobos would be favored, by the way.

The Karma Bowl: Sam Bradford vs. Jermaine Gresham

The Sooners ran it up on everyone last year on their way to another BCS bowl loss, and the football Gods caught up to them this year. Bradford and Gresham, certain first-round NFL draft picks, came back to school and got hurt, severely hampering their draft stock. I do feel sorry for the kids. A little bit. Okay, if Gresham will admit that touchdown against Texas was a complete fluke I’ll feel really bad for him.

The Somebody Put Him Out of His Misery Bowl: Bobby Bowden Hiring a Defensive Coordinator vs. Bobby Bowden Doing Anything At This Point

Please. Someone plant some drugs on him or something. He needed to go about three years ago, but now the decision that he will name the new defensive coordinator after Mickey Andrews is not only a bad decision, but insulting to coach-in-waiting Jumbo Fisher. Let’s just hope that Bowden hires someone credible and not a nephew or somesuch.

The Hey This Isn’t 1865 Anymore Bowl: Shepard Smith vs. Ole Miss Students

Fox News anchor Shepard Smith is among many vocal advocates for Ole Miss students to stop chanting “the South will rise again” after the school’s fight song, for obvious reasons, among them that we now have integrated schools, integrated water fountains and we even got rid of segregated busses.

And some Big 12 Bowls…

The Texas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Navy

The Aggies try to make this one “Army/Navy II” until Navy laughs them out of Reliant Stadium. A&M coach Mike Sherman says the team has come a long ways since losing the Spring Game and that he’s proud of the guys.

The Independence Bowl: Kansas vs. Georgia

Georgia misses a team practice while holding a fashion show while Mark Mangino is excited about the “Frommer’s Guide To Shreveport Dining” new edition.

The Insight Bowl: Nebraska vs. Northwestern

Northwestern is just happy to get out of Chicago in the winter, while Nebraska fans are wondering what the hell the Insight Bowl is and when did the Orange Bowl change their name. Phoenix is just wondering who all these pasty white people are.

The Sun Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Arizona

The only fat little girlfriends Mike Leach has to worry about in this one are the ones on the mountains above the Sun Bowl. Leach’s offense outlasts Mike Stoops’ Arizona squad and the Red Raiders are excited to proclaim 2009 as the “Second Best Year EVAR”.

The Alamo Bowl: Minnesota vs. Kansas State

Kansas State is once again banished to the Alamo Bowl after a 70-3 lashing at the hands of the Longhorns in the Big 12 Championship Game. They once again stink the place up worse than it already was with the Riverwalk running through town.

The Holiday Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. USC

The Trojans nearly miss the game when several Trojans miss the team bus to San Diego, thinking that noted prankster Pete Carroll is pulling yet another joke on them by telling them their playing in the Holiday Bowl and not the Rose Bowl. The Trojans prepare for Iowa all week and still beat Mike Gundy and the Cowboys.

The Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs. LSU

The Sooners are relieved they are finally not in a BCS bowl game, but then see LSU across the field and panic and lose yet another bowl game. Bob Stoops fires both coordinators on the spot and then kicks Jermaine Gresham in the knee and punches Sam Bradford in the shoulder while impaling his visor in the Cotton Bowl turf.

The National Championship Game: Texas vs. Florida

For the Longhorns, it is simple. Win five games where they will be double digit favorites and they’ll be in the title game. You have to think the next three should be the easiest, with Central Florida and Baylor the next two weeks and a struggling Kansas team at home the week after that. Texas A&M could be a tough one on the road, but like we discussed earlier we’ll probably know more about the Aggies after the next two weeks. Kansas State is on the rise and Nebraska is always tricky, but you have to think a majority-Longhorn crowd in Arlington will push them over the edge.

For Florida it is a little more complicated. They still have a road trip to South Carolina and a home game against Florida State and Bobby Bowden (in what could be his last FLA/FSU game), and then have to follow that up with a tough match-up in the SEC Championship game. A game with Alabama would be tough, but give me Tebow’s experience and a little better offense for the Gators in that one.

I want Tebow and Meyer. I’ve said that all year and it is close.

Real close.

FACEBOOK NEWS FEED

Brandon Spikes has joined the group University of Florida Optometry.

The Iowa/Indiana Replay Crew is applying for a job in the SEC.

Urban Meyer grounded my son for half an hour.

Darrell Scott is looking for his mom a new job.

Eric Davis is not in college anymore.

On to the games...

Ohio State @ Penn State -3.5:

Who is Penn State? No, that is not the question that 100 year old Joe Paterno asks when he gets out of the casket every morning, but that is the question that college football fans are asking. The only credible team they have played is Iowa, and they lost that one. They were down at the half at Northwestern last week.

So who knows what happens in this game? But the title of this column isn’t “Who Knows How The Week Will Go?” so let’s look at this. You might want to take the under here. Penn State has the nation’s best scoring defense, while Ohio State’s defense is 6th in the country. Penn State’s offense has been efficient this season, but they haven’t faced a defense like OSU’s, either.

Your guess is as good as mine, but the title of this column isn’t….

Penn State 17 Ohio State 13
ATS – Penn State
SU – Penn State

Oregon -6.5 @ Stanford:

Oregon is coming off a HUGE win for their program on Saturday, and will be riding high into Palo Alto, while Stanford watched last week’s game on their couch on their bye week.

It is setting up as the perfect trap game, but I’m not sure Stanford has the horses to pull one off here.

Oregon 34 Stanford 21
ATS – Oregon
SU – Oregon

LSU @ Alabama -7.5:

Alabama hasn’t beaten LSU in Tuscaloosa since 1999, four Alabama coaches ago.

LSU is playing really well lately, and it is all due to a defense that is much improved from last season. They only gave up 36 points in the whole month of October, playing some very capable offenses in that stretch (Georgia, Florida and Auburn).

Alabama finally gets their win in Tuscaloosa, but like most of their games lately, this one is a close one.

Alabama 20 LSU 17
ATS – LSU
SU – Alabama

Kansas -3 @ Kansas State:

Kansas State appears to be on a roll, while Kansas is going the other way. This win would go a long way towards KSU winning the North, so they’ll be focused and ready.

Kansas State 34 Kansas 24
ATS – Kansas State
SU – Kansas State

Oklahoma -5.5 @ Nebraska:

There is a bar in Lincoln that plays “Boomer Sooner” and sings out the words “Screw the Soon-ers, Screw the Soon-ers” when Texas comes to town. I know they probably do the same against Texas when Oklahoma comes to town. That’s what I always think about when these two teams play.

Anyhow, now that your lesson on Lincoln dive bars is done, let’s look at this matchup. Nebraska has been putrid on offense the past three games (and you could argue they weren’t very good against Missouri, either), while Oklahoma appears to have put the Texas loss behind them and is looking to make the most of it.

Again, these appear to be teams that are headed in opposite directions, and you have to go with the hot hand.

Oklahoma 27 Nebraska 16
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Central Florida @ Texas -35.5:

And the matchup we’ve all been waiting for. Well it is partially true, we have been looking for a break in the schedule.

Which isn’t to slight Central Florida. Make no mistake about it, this isn’t Florida Atlantic or North Texas coming in here. UCF has some real athletes on this team, but they try to run the ball against you, and you tell me if that is going to work against Texas.

On defense, UCF has some real talent. They have 27 sacks on the year, good enough for 8th in the country, 9th in rushing defense and are 5th in the country in tackles for loss. With the problems with our running game, and at times pass protection, don’t look to get healthy in those areas against Central Florida.

And yeah, you say they haven’t played anybody. But they trailed Miami 10-0 at halftime, eventually losing 27-7, and held (an albeit bad) Miami running game to 70 yards on 46 carries.

Texas wins comfortably, but with the early start, the natural tendency to let down when facing a lesser opponent after the gauntlet we went through, and some talent from UCF in our weak areas, I think UCF covers here.

Texas 45 UCF 10
ATS – UCF
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick



For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for coffee for early kickoffs.