Friday Night Tailgates

Matt · December 18, 2008 4:21 PM Posted by ESPN.com's Tim Griffin

Matt

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 41-42-1 (.494) ($520) ATS 68-16 (.810) SU

What we learned last week: We learned that it is a sad state of affairs in Florida collegiate football outside of the Florida Gators. Florida State couldn’t even manage to slow down the Gators in a torrential downpour, I fear what the score would have been in fair conditions…….We learned that a 36-0 loss to Alabama will get you fired, but Tommy Tuberville is getting the short end of the stick at Auburn. 84 wins in a power conference such as the SEC over 10 years is certainly nothing to hang your head over, good luck finding a coach that can beat Nick Saban and Urban Meyer with regularity…….Robert Griffin is going to be a good one, but Baylor went away from him too early on Saturday. Their best chance at winning that ballgame was putting the ball into his hands, and it seems like too often the running back was getting the ball on the zone read. I hope you didn’t have your hopes up too high on that one, Texas fans……We learned that Missouri can apparently go from #2 one year to losing to a five loss team the next season. Thanks for nothing, Missouri, but you can make it up to us this week……We learned that Oklahoma is quite simply the luckiest team in the history of luckiest teams. Jermaine Gresham should seriously buy a lottery ticket one of these days…….And finally, we learned that all is right in the world again (almost) after Texas ended that improbable 2 year losing streak to the Aggies. Now let’s start a new streak.

Anyhow…

In a diner somewhere in West Texas, an old man sips his coffee while ordering the same thing he gets every Sunday from the surly waitress. She grunts her acknowledgement, pushes the pencil behind her ear and turns away, leaving him in his own world once again. The man lifts the newspaper, and below the bold headline that proclaims last night’s events a huge upset, a picture sits showing a young defensive back from the big state school in Austin. The kid feels that he let the big one get away and the tears are rolling down his face like the soda coming out of the soda fountain behind the counter.

They told him that strange things happen in Lubbock at night. And Cedric Griffin, despite being a freshman, felt that he had let his team down, had ruined their national title hopes by not knocking down the ball, or getting an interception, or making a game saving tackle. He let his team down.

Four years later. It was another night game, this time in Columbus, Ohio, the site of Ohio State University, and an epic match-up between the #2 Texas Longhorns and the #4 Ohio State Buckeyes. The Longhorns were heavy favorites to reach the national title game, but first had a huge obstacle to get over in the Buckeyes, who had never lost at night in the famed Horseshoe, and who had national title aspirations of their own.

Texas jumped up 10-0 on the Buckeyes before they came back with 16 unanswered points. The teams traded field goals in the second half, and with about five minutes to go in the third, Ohio State led 19-16.

Then came his moment.

Ohio State drove down the field, and looked to add a touchdown and put the game away. The Longhorns hadn’t moved the ball since the first quarter, they surely weren’t going to score 10 points in the last 20 minutes of the game (and they would have been right).

Ohio State quarterback Justin Zwick dropped back in the pocket from the shadows of Texas’s goalposts, and hit tight end Ryan Hamby right across the middle. Hamby juggled it, and then reeled it in as he crossed the goalline…but then Cedric Griffin came out of seemingly nowhere and jostled the ball loose (YouTube Clip.

Cedric Griffin had just made the biggest defensive play of his life, and it came in the Longhorns’ biggest regular season game of their national title season. Ohio State ended up kicking a field goal, and Vince Young made the rest history.

Redemption.

Sports has a way of letting us ride it to the highest of highs, but when those waves come crashing down, it also reaches us down into the lowest of lows. November 16, 2002 ended up being a low for the #3 Longhorns when they lost to Texas Tech, and November 1, 2008 will end up haunting these Longhorns unless Missouri pulls off the improbable this weekend.

And nobody will be more haunted than freshman Blake Gideon, who dropped a sure interception the play before Graham Harrell hit Michael Crabtree for a touchdown pass with one second left, ending the Longhorns’ reign at #1 and dropping them into the BCS abyss that they never recovered from.

But make no mistake about it. Blake Gideon will be back. He will make a play that will save our ass, and you’ll smile, look up at the heavens, and quietly whisper to yourself…

Redemption.

And the Longhorns will be back. Hell, the Longhorns might be back this year. Sunday’s ridiculous situation that left them on the tarmac watching Oklahoma board the airplane for Kansas City wasn’t fair nor did it make a hell of a lot of sense, but it happened, and from that we must move on.

Because sometimes, it is The Week That Will Be, and sometimes it is The Week That Wasn’t Meant To Be.

As the great Snoop Dogg once said, follow me now.

Here is what has gone right for Texas since November 1, 2008:

 Texas won 3 straight ballgames, beating Baylor, Kansas and Texas A&M.

 Arkansas beat LSU and Tulsa.

 The Horns’ other out of conference opponents won a few games.

 Penn State lost to Iowa.

 Utah beats TCU, an OU out of conference opponent.

Here is what went wrong for the Horns since November 1, 2008:

 They lost in Lubbock. Duh. But lost on the last play of the game, when everyone and their dog was screaming at the TV for the Longhorns to take more time off the clock on their last possession. Just an ugly, ugly game that kicked you square in the groin.
 Oklahoma thrashes Nebraska that same day.
 TWTWB is 8-22 ATS.
 Texas Tech manhandles Oklahoma State the following week, not only ruining any realistic chance Tech had to finish with 2 losses, it also drops Oklahoma State in the rankings, erasing a big Texas win in the computers.
 Oklahoma throttles Texas A&M. Not unexpected, but they score 66 points. Apparently this is important.
 Alabama goes to OT with LSU, but the Tigers have nothing in the extra period and Bama wins.
 Florida goes 4-0 in that stretch in dominating fashion, taking human votes away from Texas and just about assuring us that if they win on Saturday they will be voted into the title game.
 Oklahoma throttles Texas Tech, which removes Tech from the BCS talk, but makes OU a Superman team that could have stormed the beaches of Normandy without a single casualty.
 Cincinnati goes 4-0 during that time, posting a 10-2 record to date, and giving OU a very solid out of conference victory, which is important to the computers in the BCS. These wins during this time include a OT win over West Virginia, an 8 point win over 5-6 Louisville and a 7 point win over Pittsburgh.
 TCU goes 2-1, also finishing 10-2.
 Oklahoma uses two dropped snaps inside the five yard line and a tipped 72 yard touchdown to beat Oklahoma State. They score on a 30 yard run with 30 seconds left to again pass the 60 point barrier.
 Baylor leads Texas Tech 28-14, but end up losing 35-28. A Baylor win would have sent Texas to Kansas City.
 Missouri loses to Kansas in a back and forth game, erasing the Longhorns’ biggest conference victory that OU does not have.
 Colorado loses to Nebraska on a 57 yard field goal, and in at least one poll drops out of the Top 50 and lurches Nebraska into the Top 50. You get more points for beating a Top 50 team. Texas beat Colorado, while Oklahoma beat Nebraska.
 If you want to go before November 1st, Texas Tech goes to OT with Nebraska on October 11th, where a Nebraska interception in OT loses the game for the Cornhuskers. A Nebraska win there would have sent Texas to Kansas City. Cincinnati beats Akron 17-15. Beats Rutgers 13-10. TCU beats Colorado State 13-7.

So there you have it. Noted Texas message board user and BCS Expert SynTex even goes on to say that if Colorado hadn’t lost on a 57 yard field goal, and Missouri had beaten two touchdown underdog Kansas, then the computer rankings would have been enough that Texas would be going to Kansas City.

Some things just aren’t meant to be.

Or we are due for some good news.

Take your pick.

Next year, the Longhorns are loaded. If Colt McCoy comes back, you can pair him with Jordan Shipley (if he gets his medical redshirt year that he is all but assured to get), and the young receivers this year that got so much seasoning led by Malcolm Williams and Brandon Collins. Fozzy Whitaker will be 100% healthy. We lose 1 starter on the OL. We get Blaine Irby back, hopefully 100% healthy.

On defense, our young secondary turns into a seasoned group ready and willing to take your ball and go home. Muckelroy and Norton will be back, Sergio Kindle would be icing on the cake there. We get hit on the defensive line, where we lose three starters, but Sam Ocho, Eddie Jones, Ben Alexander and numerous freshman will be ready to step up and join returning starter Lamarr Houston. We’re so loaded we even return our kicker and punter.

Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree and most of the offensive line will be gone at Texas Tech. Sam Bradford is a good candidate to go early to the NFL, and OU also has four senior starters on their offensive line. Wide receivers Manuel Johnson and Juaquin Iglesias are seniors. They return mostly everyone on defense, but the way teams moved the ball on them this year, the rest of the conference is putting on their party hats and toasting their champagne.

Chase Daniel will be gone after this year. Oklahoma State looks to be our big competition, as Robinson/Bryant/Hunter all have eligibility left.

So if things don’t shake out this weekend, don’t fret. Texas will be back next year, and we’ll be pissed off. Most of the prominent players from this year will remember what they need to do to rectify the situation.

317 days.

That is the day we get to go into the Cotton Bowl and settle this like gentlemen.

Again.

But apparently now you have to score 60 points to impress people.

Karma is a big fat bitch.

Facebook News Feed

The BCS and Common Sense are no longer in a relationship.

Bob Stoops has joined the group If You Say You Didn’t Campaign Soon Enough People Will Believe You.

Barry Switzer is smiling because he ruined the Cowboys’ dynasty.

Sam Bradford is excited that his eyes aren’t crossed anymore.

Steve Spurrier wrote on Lane Kiffin’s Wall: “Cheater.”

The Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show made the BCS a distant memory.

On to the games...

Navy -10.5 v. Army:

Navy QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada is day to day with a hamstring injury. I’m thinking NFL announcers are hoping that kid doesn’t make the NFL.

Navy 38 Army 10
ATS – Navy
SU – Navy

South Florida @ West Virginia -7:

South Florida started the season 5-0, but have since lost 4 of 6 and are struggling to score points. West Virginia had a setback last week against Pittsburgh, but Pat White will look to go out on top in his last home game.

West Virginia 34 South Florida 24
ATS – West Virginia
SU – West Virginia

USC -33 @ UCLA:

The big story this week is how USC is electing to wear their home Cardinal jerseys on the road this week, reviving a tradition where both of these teams wear their home jerseys. The penalty is that USC has to give up a timeout, which probably tells you how scared Pete Carroll is of UCLA.

USC 48 UCLA 14
ATS – USC
SU – USC

ACC Championship: Boston College v. Virginia Tech PK:

This is a rematch of a game earlier this year. Boston College won that one 28-23 at BC, as BC held the Hokies scoreless in the second half.

With the marbles on the line, however, I’ll take Tech.

Virginia Tech 24 Boston College 17
ATS – Virginia Tech
SU – Virginia Tech

SEC Championship: Alabama v. Florida -9.5:

Alabama is getting virtually zero respect this week, despite winning 12 games and NOT losing to Mississippi at home.

Florida’s speed (that is about as cliché as Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley being roommates at this point) could be neutralized by Alabama’s defense, which ranks 3rd in the country and outside of the Georgia game has not given up more than 21 points in any other game.

Florida has a formidable defense of their own, ranking 7th in the country.

Give me the more experienced quarterback in Tim Tebow, but [Lee Corso]I think this one is going to be closer than the experts think.[/Lee Corso]

Florida 24 Alabama 21
ATS – Alabama
SU – Florida

Big 12 Championship*: Missouri v. Oklahoma -17:

Well we know one thing, Missouri is likely to score 40 points. Oklahoma has faced two Top 10 offenses away from Norman this year, giving up 45 points to Texas and 41 points to Oklahoma State.

LB Austin Box, who replaced Ryan Reynolds at MLB after he was lost for the season with a knee injury, will miss this game with strained knee ligaments. This could be key, as OU depended heavily on MLB Curtis Lofton last year in their two games with Missouri. Lofton had 27 tackles, returned a fumble for a touchdown and intercepted a pass…now his third replacement is in the ballgame.

As always, the key will getting pressure on Bradford (who will wear a soft cast on his left hand after straining ligaments in his thumb last week). Let him sit back there all day, and he’ll tear you apart. Put some pressure on him, and things happen. Missouri does have a decent pass rush, so they’ve got that going for them.

Missouri has the talent to pull off the upset here. Daniel and Maclin are no stranger to big games, and would like nothing more to get a hallmark win in their career. So will Missouri pull off the upset?

In a word, no.

But I hope I’m wrong. Hell I’ve been wrong plenty lately.

Oklahoma 51 Missouri 41
ATS – Missouri
SU – Oklahoma

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Fiesta Bowl tickets.

Matt

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 39-38-1 (.506) ($280) ATS 63-15 (.808) SU

What we learned last week: We learned that college football analysts love to say that Cincinnati is no longer “just a basketball school”, but when were they even last a basketball school? They haven’t made it to the NCAA tournament since 2005, and haven’t made it to the Sweet Sixteen since 2001. Hopefully Fox announcers come up with other adjectives before the Orange Bowl that they somehow will be playing in……We learned that in the Big Ten, there is Penn State and Ohio State, and the rest are just schedule fillers. Michigan State beat every other Big Ten opponent, but gave up 45 points to Ohio State and 49 to Penn State……We learned that Utah can finish a season undefeated, and nobody wants to play them. Not because of their football team (how good can a team be that only beat Michigan by 2?), but because nobody literally wants to see their team play a game against Utah. But whatever, congrats to the Utes on another BCS berth…..We learned that Michigan football is off the charts bad. Holy hell the Aggies might beat them. I’m not sure that an all-star squad of Texas high school football players couldn’t start at most positions on that Michigan offensive squad……It happened to MC Hammer, it happened to HornFans.com, but has anyone fallen quicker than LSU? Mississippi completely dominated that game on Saturday, and who was surprised by the outcome? Nobody……And finally, we learned that you can take a boy out of Lubbock, but he’s liable to get his ass kicked when you do. The Red Raiders didn’t look so perfect faced with a hostile crowd on Saturday.

Anyhow…

I write this every year, but this year I REALLY can’t remember that it is already Thanksgiving and time for the annual time of the year where I give thanks to all of those around me. This will be long, so let’s get started:

To Rashad Bobino, thanks for your efforts in bringing a national championship to Austin.

To Cedric Dockery, Aaron Lewis, Henry Melton, Ryan Palmer, Nic Redwine, Luke Tiemann and Peter Ullman, thanks for your contributions on the football field. None of you were All-Americans, but you did your job, some of you did really well, and you’ll always have a T-ring from the University of Texas. Sounds great to me.

To Chris Ogbonnaya, thanks for that glorious day in October of 2008. The coaches and the Harris poll voters might have forgotten that day, but orangebloods forever will remember Chris Ogbonnaya secured a win over the #1 Oklahoma Sooners.

To Quan Cosby, thanks for coming back from baseball and not only giving this team one hell of a playmaker, but also a role model. Anyone that can juggle a marriage, kids, football practice and school sounds like one hell of a man to me.

To Roy Miller, thanks for being a rock in the middle of the defensive line. Your play has been more consistent than most on this team, and consistently good at that.

To Brian Orakpo, thanks for being the best defensive lineman, and the best defensive player, in the nation in 2008. I feel that you could have done it in 2007 if it weren’t for injury, but you’re still going to get your payday in the NFL, and I couldn’t be prouder to root for you on Sundays next fall.

To Jordan Shipley, thanks for…no, you’re going to be back.

To Burnt Orange Fan Zone, thanks for taking the time to read this column every week and for allowing me to post it there. It’s always nice to see some different commentary, and I truly appreciate the compliments and comments that have come along this year.

To the BCS, thanks for nothing.

To Michigan[b], thanks for letting us gain at least 7 wins on you in the all-time wins standings this year…and counting.

To [b]Deloss Dodds and Mack Brown, thanks for Will Muschamp. And Major Applewhite.

To Myron Rolle, thanks for giving us a good story in the midst of all this drama.

To Syracuse, thanks for giving us a good laugh last weekend.

To Baylor, thanks for kicking the crap out of Texas A&M. That was humorous.

To edsfopmfolm, ChevyHDGert, Scruffhorn, tobacco chewin’ redneck, AC-3, tamut98 and ck_hook_em, thanks for continuing to post your thoughts on threads. I know this group can be a little cliquish at times, but differing opinions are really necessary to keep this thing afloat, and your input is welcome and appreciated.

To CHBHorn, thanks for making it to another tailgate! That was great. Always good to see you around, buddy, hopefully you can bring the family around us one of these times and you can become a staple at the tailgate.

To hornsfan44, thanks for defending our country and taking the time to share your experiences with this little slice of the world. I’m not sure if you’ll even read this, but please let us know what you need over there and we’ll do everything in our power to get it to you.

To pabloknight, thanks for doing what you do. I feel like I say this every year, but knowing how much time and effort it takes to run a tailgate, keep a full-time job and devote more time to a message board, thanks for being one of the few that get it.

To rossum01, thanks for continuing to post. You seem to have fallen off the map a little bit lately, but your opinion is always appreciated and always good to talk to you for a few at MBK functions.

To oneputtlarry, thanks for giving us insight on cell phone distractions and movies that we might not be able to see.

To Simon Honeybone, thanks for not making us look like fools by letting you post again. I know yours isn’t always the popular opinion, but it is needed, and a fresh voice is always good for any community.

To orange dream, thanks for letting us into your world a little bit more this year. It seems like you have posted from every corner of the world this year, so I’d love to hear more about your travels sometime. It was great to see you and your crew at a tailgate to put a face to the name, hopefully you can make this a regular occurrence.

To Colin, thanks for stepping up at the Arkansas tailgate when we all thought we would be dead in the water. The pork tenderloin was absolutely outstanding. Thanks for all you do for the tailgate, and thanks for the witty one-liners that I always chuckle about when I think about it again the next day.

To Jerry, thanks for doing all that you do for the tailgate, and sorry that you threw your back out at the tailgate doing what others should have been helping you do. Thanks for getting our satellite up and running, we might still be staring at a blue screen if it wasn’t for you.

To Donny, thanks for watching out for the TV at tailgates, and for your always humorous demeanor. It’s always a great time when Donny is around, except when you begin talking gibberish, but can’t we say the same thing about all of us?

To Pickle and Mark, thanks for coming back to us this year. It is always a better time when Mark, Pickle and their crew are around, and this year has been a hell of a time. Thanks for the beer on the all-night tailgate excursion, Pickle, that was very, very welcome.

To RC Horn, thanks for the stories of 70’s/80’s Texas football. They’re priceless.

To Blondie, thanks for linking to my blog and for being a faithful reader. You were my first commenter!

To McKinney Horn, thanks again for showing us a good time at the Anatole on Texas/OU weekend. Hey, do you remember that we beat Oklahoma that day by 10 points on a neutral field? Keep up the good karma, and I hope things turn out well for you.

To dahorns, thanks for the heads-up about the tailgate situation this year. You saved our lives. Thanks for always looking out for us, you’re a good friend and even a better person. I hope you win the barbeque cookoff this year!

To Reinheitsgebot, thanks for being a good dude. It’s always fun to talk to you at the tailgates and get a good story out of you. I’ve learned some unique things from you over the years and I’m sure it will continue.

To coryomfs, thanks for keeping the “Running into Cory at the Exes Tent at TX/OU” streak alive.

To TheDean176, thanks for some great tales of parties at Matt’s house. Thank you also for your devotion to the two greatest professional sports franchises of all-time, the Dallas

To ChuckNorrisHorn, thanks for furthering the beer sales in the great game of baseball.

To Bevo71, thanks for making it to a tailgate! It was great to see you, Bev. I know this holiday season will be tough for you, but know that we’re all thinking about you.

To AtlLonghorn, thanks for being one of the most passionate sports fans on this board. I enjoy your weekly football post, and like that you keep this board going sometimes when people are being shy.

To eochs, thanks for getting the site up and running again, and for offering room and board at Casa de Ochs for the Fiesta Bowl if it should come to that. I look forward to the improvements coming down the line, and congrats again on the pending nuptials.

To Makaveli, thanks for the political analysis during this election season, and for the always entertaining random sports points. We need more Makaveli around these parts.

To U2-Horn, thanks for the electronics posts, and for being our resident Uniform Czar. I always get nervous when I see that U2-Horn has replied to one of my posts because I panic and think about what I could possibly have typed wrong.

To Music City Mafia, thanks for representing the Horns out there, and for the always well thought-out posts. One of these days we’ll have to put a face to the name.

To Randall Bowers and Marlon, thanks for providing to the tailgates and for the entertainment factor. You’re both good people.

To Janet (Pickle’s mom), thanks for coming to our TX/OU dinner! It’s always a joy to see you around, except when you were drinking more beer than I was at the Old Mill after the game!

To Pope, thanks for being Pope. What is there not to thank you for? Thanks for destroying that chair I didn’t like anyhow, thanks for guarding the keg during the game, thanks for bringing good folks to the tailgate, and thanks for bringing good football talk to the tailgate. Always a good time when Pope is around.

To Anonymous readers of The Week That Will Be, thanks for taking the time to read this every week. Most of you get the column forwarded to you, and I appreciate the comments I hear. It makes it worth the time that it takes to write this thing every week.

To Orange Margarita and Silverado, thanks for raising the cutest niece in the world. Now we just need to get her to wear more orange.

To rtapia, thanks for bringing the Wii to the all-night wait for tailgate spots event. That was fun. We’re honored to have our tailgate next to you guys, it really is the best seven days out of the year.

To BarryBnds, thanks for the entertainment factor. It’s always a good time when Kyle is around, just watch out for those Joe T’s margaritas.

To Markaholic, thanks for the Tito’s and the A&M tickets. Hopefully when the kids get a bit older we’ll see you and Amy more often.

To 12ozLongneck, thanks for keeping us up to date on everyone’s transgressions during the debate and for coming to the TX/OU dinner. We hope to see you around the tailgates more often next season, seems like every game someone asks about you.

To Bucharest, thanks for being versatile. It seems like you’re always in that area where you get to the tailgate early enough to beat most everyone else but a little later than the regulars, so you’re one of the first people to call when we need something that we forgot, and you never complain. You also bring a great crew to the tailgate, lots of fun people who contribute as much as anyone. And thanks for the bottle of Maker’s, THAT is always very appreciated.

To Mr. Peabody, thanks for sticking around here. We might not be too happy with you right now with all the BCS drama, but you know we all consider you a great friend with interesting tales of getting thrown out of restaurants at lunch and the like. You have a beautiful family and we wish you and yours the best.

To OKCLonghorn, thanks for the text messages declaring your love for the Longhorns and Cowboys, and even the ones about the Spurs. It was great to see you guys at TX/OU (hey remember when we won by 10 points on a neutral field?), and I’m glad we didn’t scare Debi off (no offense).

To beam, coke & horns, thanks for the satellite. That was very clutch. You seemed to be around more this year than past years, and it was all a great time. We’ll forever boycott Sholz’s in protest. We wish you and Kym the best.

To BevoisaSoxFan, thanks for being Arch! You are truly one of the nicest and most genuine human beings I know, and you’re always there to help us set up the tents or whatever when we need it the most. And also you are our resident New England Foilage expert, so you’ve got that going for you. Congratulations on your gorgeous daughter Pilar and we wish you and Sylvia the best.

To SmoothLonghorn and Lindsey, thanks for all you do. You’re always there to help set up the tents, and somehow you find the time to make jello shots for a bunch of people that you don’t know. It gets overlooked far too often, but thanks.

To hornbybirth, thanks for getting your ass down to Texas. You’re also one that is eager to do whatever needs to be done, and that is appreciated. We are all still thinking about Shawna, make sure to tell her that we’re all rooting for her. I know it might be difficult to be away from her family, but I hope that she has found a surrogate family down here.

To El Aitch Bee, thanks for the Aggie post, and thanks for showing your face around these parts. You know you are always welcome, and you know where to find us.

To 93 Horn, thanks for…it might be easier to list the things that we can’t thank you for. Thanks for storing the trailer, taking care of the trailer, storing the pit, taking care of the pit, hauling both of those things to the tailgate each and every week, and then hauling both of those things AWAY from the tailgate each and every week. Thanks for cooking, for being our money manager, for securing the tailgate television, I could really go on. So just know from all of us…thanks.

To Vicki, thanks for all you do! We made your job a little easier this year by not making you drive down from Rockwall at the crack of dawn to help secure the spot, but that didn’t hamper your enthusiasm to help out in the way you always do. Thanks for the food, for fronting the money for the spots for the whole year, for setting up and tearing down each and every week, the list really goes on. We all love you, Vicki, and love you even more for the smiles you put on our faces each week with another tale of a big win in Shreveport or a witty one-liner delivered with that hand on the hip.

To Bob and Marie, it isn’t fair that you guys get lumped together all the time, but that’s just the way it is. Thanks for the food, thanks for setting up and tearing down each and every week, and thanks for being the heart of the tailgate. It was really strange to look around at the Arkansas game and not see you guys there (or Brian), so let’s not make a habit of that. We all really appreciate all you do, and we love you guys.

To Ernest, thanks for coming around more this year. We still got some work to do, but we’ll get there.

To Eric, thanks for being a great friend. It seems like I’ve talked to you almost every day with hand-wringing over the Mavericks and Longhorns in recent weeks, but it is always a pleasure with your humor and wit. You are a man of strong faith and convictions, Eric, and we all appreciate that. We hope to see more of your family at a tailgate next year, and we’ll begin preparing our vocal chords for the Canary Hut before the ULAMon game next year.

To Seth, thanks for being Seth. Who knew that one of your outlandish claims would actually work out this year (McCoy > Tebow), but that is essentially “Seth” and why we keep you around. Congrats on your offer from Booz, you more than deserve it. It sucks that you’ll be away from us for the time being, but you know our number and the door is always open.

To Chay, thanks for being Chay. The tales of nights on the town, the football discussions, the move to El Campo and back and funny white guy dancing, it is all that makes Chay. It seems like we’ve hung out a lot this year between the River Inn, the 4th of July and all-night tailgate spot securing, and I enjoyed every minute of it.

To Jeremy, thanks for Ticket drops, for football commentary, for great tales like the trip to Rhode Island, for keeping your boy in line and most of all being one of the most loyal and caring friends that I know.

To Drew, thanks for being there. We said some things, but I think we’ve become better friends this year and for that I am grateful. I wish you all the luck in the world with Kristina, she really brings out the best in you. Thanks for all the things you do for the tailgate, including getting the sponsor beer, and thanks for being a good friend for all of these years.

To the Driggers family, thanks for being excited that I am joining the family.

To Robbi, thanks for saying yes. 

Facebook News Feed

Kelvin Sampson and the NCAA are no longer in a relationship.

Notre Dame Fans have listed throwing snowballs at our players in their interests.

The National Media with Common Sense has joined the group 45-35, lest we forget.

Bob Stoops is done campaigning for the BCS, right after I tell you that we beat Tech by 44 and they beat Texas.

Kansas State is bringing back Bill Snyder. No word on Michael Bishop.

Notre Dame wants to fire fatass but it will be expensive. Spare a dollar?

Minnesota has removed “A Bowl Game” from their interests.

Texas Tech 2008 has joined the group Texas Tech Teams That Can’t Win on the Road.

On to the games...

We’re going to do this a little differently this week. With the special TWTWB, we’re going to add a section to each game capsule with what interests Texas best as far as BCS positioning…

Florida -16.5 @ Florida State:

What helps Texas: There are two schools of thought to this:

A.) Florida State wins: Florida falls, and then if they knock of Alabama in the SEC Championship game, then Texas perhaps gets to go to the national championship game despite what Texas Tech and Oklahoma does, in fact they might play one of those teams there. That is if you trust voters to leave a SEC team out of the national championship game, which I don’t.

B.) Florida wins…in a blowout: If Florida were to pull an OU/TT on Florida State, then there is the thought that some of the voters that have Oklahoma in front of Florida in the coaches poll will be forced to change their vote back to Florida. In this scenario, Florida gains votes, while OU loses them, and Texas (since presumably most voters have Florida in front of Texas anyhow) stays the same. Any change in points helps.

Florida has won four in a row in this series, and are coming off a blowout win last year in Gainesville. The Gators’ speed has been much discussed in their 7 game winning streak, but they meet a team in Florida State which might have the defense to contain it.

FSU stays tight for a while, but Florida is just a better team.

Florida 31 Florida State 23
ATS – Florida State
SU – Florida

Auburn @ Alabama -14:

What helps Texas: Much like the scenario above, Texas could sneak into the national championship game if Alabama loses to Auburn and then beats Florida, but again, I’m not sure the voters would allow a SEC team to be shut out. Alabama losing would free up more votes, but they would probably be evenly distributed to OU, Texas and Florida.

It’s probably in the Longhorns’ best interests for Alabama to just go ahead and win, so the voters don’t have the opportunity to vote OU #1 again.

Fun Fact: Alabama has never beaten Auburn on the University of Alabama campus. They are 0-6 lifetime against the Tigers at home.

But this is the year to do it.
Auburn played better against Georgia, but still managed only 13 points, which didn’t help their 107th ranked scoring offense. Alabama’s defense is tough and nasty, and will be geared up to end their six game losing streak to Auburn.

Auburn’s defense and Alabama’s offense is a good match-up for the Tigers, which is why it will be a close game.

Alabama 27 Auburn 17
ATS – Auburn
SU – Alabama

Baylor @ Texas Tech -21:

What helps Texas:

Baylor winning puts Texas in the Big 12 Championship game as the Big 12 South representative, no ifs, ands or buts about it.

But I wouldn’t get too excited about that possibility. Yes, Baylor coach Art Briles has brought instant respect to a program long dead of respect, and he has always been rumored as the next Texas Tech coach, but Baylor just doesn’t have the horses to go on the road and get this one.

Tech will be a bit upset about what happened last week, and I fear Baylor will fear the wrath. Robert Griffin might give Tech some fits, but they need a few more of him.

Texas Tech 48 Baylor 20
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Texas Tech

Kansas v. Missouri -15:

What helps Texas: Go Missouri. That is the Longhorns’ best victory that Oklahoma doesn’t have, so Missouri needs to win win win.

This one doesn’t quite have the allure that last year’s #2 vs. #3 36-28 match-up has, but this one is still a hot local rivalry game. Kansas enters the game having lost four out of five games, as their defense has gone south this year, giving up 188 points in those four losses (47 ppg). Missouri has quietly won four in a row against the cellar dwellers of the Big 12 and enter this game having already clinched a Big 12 Championship game berth.

I don’t see the Jayhawks being able to hang here. Missouri is averaging 100 more yards of offense in the last 3 games, I think they keep it going here.

Missouri 48 Kansas 31
ATS – Missouri
SU – Missouri

Oklahoma -7 @ Oklahoma State:

What helps Texas: There is the thought out there that OU can win a close one and Texas can still go to the Big 12 Championship, but it will be close, and probably too close to feel comfortable about. All hope isn’t lost in that case, but don’t put all of your apples in that basket. An Oklahoma State win would put Texas Tech in Kansas City, sure, but will voters put Tech in above Texas, even if the Red Raiders win the Big 12? Do the voters want to vote a team in that lost by 44 points just a couple of weeks prior? And if Tech loses, well Texas fans can pack their bags for South Beach.

So all hope is not lost either way, but I feel more comfortable rooting against OU, don’t you?

The Sooners have won five straight in this series, but look at these games in Stillwater:

2006: Oklahoma 27 Oklahoma State 21
2004: Oklahoma 38 Oklahoma State 35
2002: Oklahoma 28 Oklahoma State 38
2000: Oklahoma 12 Oklahoma State 7

So in the Bob Stoops era, OU’s biggest win in Stillwater has been a 6 point win in 2006. Add to that the fact that this is a night game and that OSU had the week off last week to heal up, while OU put it all on the table against Texas Tech.

Which OU defense shows up in this game? The one that allowed 31 points to Kansas, 35 to Kansas State, 28 to Nebraska and 28 to Texas A&M, or the one that allowed only 21 points to high octane Texas Tech?

And which Oklahoma State team shows up? The one that climbed all the way up to #6 in the rankings this year, or the one that went to Lubbock and completely fell apart?

I expect OSU to put up a game here. The way to beat the Sooners is to be physical on the ground and control the running game. The Cowboys have the #7 rushing attack in the land, and have had 2 weeks to heal Kendall Hunter and find holes in the OU rush defense.

Oklahoma State’s pass defense needs to step up, however, because if they don’t, then OSU will be too far behind to even bother running the football.

It wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see an upset here, but OU’s offense is just playing too well right now to bet against.

Oklahoma 38 Oklahoma State 28
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Texas A&M @ Texas -35:

2006: Texas A&M 12 Texas 7
2007: Texas A&M 38 Texas 30

We’ve waited 365 days to get that bitter taste out of our mouths…and now the Horns have waited 2 days to get the BCS bitter taste out of their mouth.

How bad are the Aggies?

They rank 110th in the country in rushing offense.
They rank 115th in the country in rushing defense.
They rank 100th in the country in passing efficiency defense.
They rank 113th in the country in total defense.
They rank 112th in the country in scoring defense.
They rank 105th in the country in turnover margin.
They rank 102nd in the country in sacks.
They rank 111th in the country in sacks allowed.

So that’s 8 major categories in which they rank in the 100’s (out of 119).

Texas needs this one, and they need it big.

Colt McCoy gets on the jet to the Downtown Athletic Club in New York.

Texas 55 Texas A&M 13
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for turkey and dressing.

Matt

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 6-0 SU
For the Year: 37-34-1 (.521) ($40) ATS 58-14 (.806) SU

What we learned last week: We learned that the SEC (Securities & Exchange Commission) is charging Mark Cuban with insider trading, but perhaps the SEC (South Eastern Conference) should charge their teams with insider trading of offensive gameplans. On a boring day of college football, Georgia and Auburn might have taken the cake…We learned that Alabama needs defense and special teams in order to beat Mississippi State, who is 3-7 and lost to Louisiana Tech. Other teams WANT to play Alabama right now…We learned that Mike Bianchi from the Orlando Sentinel says it best about Steve Spurrier right now: “Seeing Spurrier coming back to The Swamp and getting clobbered was like watching an aging Sinatra returning to the Sands and forgetting the words to ‘My Way.’…We learned that not even lasers pointed as his eyes from CU students (stay classy, Colorado) can stop Oklahoma State’s Zac Robinson, who now gets a week off before they face Oklahoma at home in what should be the biggest thing to hit Stillwater since the new Taco Bell…We learned that yes, the Aggies are this bad, and that yes, this time next year they’ll be discussing firing Mike Sherman. I only wish that the Bears would have kept that 34 point margin that they enjoyed going to the fourth quarter. Can the Aggies seriously look at themselves in the mirror and consider themselves the second best team in the state anymore?...And finally we learned that Colt McCoy is nails, Jordan Shipley can fly and that Will Muschamp’s defense played an outstanding ballgame, and there is (a lot) more of that to come for a long, long time on the 40 Acres.

Anyhow…

Ouch. Up $1130 in our imaginary (thank God) bank just four weeks ago, for the first time this season The Week That Will Be is in the red. I’m wondering if I can get a federal bailout for this?

Of course since Texas went up 14-0 with 11:13 left in the second quarter on Oklahoma State on October 25th, it has been a trying time for all Longhorn fans, if you count winning three ballgames and losing one “trying”. Michigan fans are probably shaking their fists at us from their front porches and calling us “whippersnappers” as I write this.

But as Michael Crabtree danced into the end zone preserving a 39-33 Texas Tech win over the Longhorns on the first day of this month, little did we know exactly how much agonizing and soul-searching all of us would do afterwards.

The fact of the matter is that the Longhorns are 10-1 (their illustrious 8th straight 10 win season) and ranked 3rd in the Bowl Championship Series standings, but I can’t sleep at night and I’m checking my Google Reader every 3 minutes to see if there is another Longhorn-related story telling me how we’re guaranteed to finish ahead of Oklahoma in the BCS standings shall they beat Tech, or a story telling me that Baylor has stolen all of Tech’s signals and are guaranteed to win in Lubbock on the 29th.

But none of that is coming, so I try to offer you what I can here:

Root for Texas to beat Texas A&M next week.

Okay if you didn’t know this one I can’t really help you. But we need to annihilate the Aggies, because at this point we need all of the style points that we can get. We’ll probably be a 4 touchdown favorite, and anything less than that would be a disappointment. Kill the Aggies, and try to at least cancel out a possible OU win over Oklahoma State the same weekend.

Root for Utah to win out.

You should know by now that if Tech, OU and Texas finish in a tie for 1st place in the Big 12 South that the one with the highest BCS ranking goes to Kansas City for the Big 12 Championship and has the inside track for the national championship.

So where does Utah fit in? Because Utah ranks below UT and higher than OU in three of the six BCS computers, we need them to win out. If they lose to BYU this weekend, then OU gets all of their computer love, while UT gets the shaft. Go Utes.

Root for Florida.

This one gets dicey.

If you’re worried about OU, root for Florida to win out, because Florida is between Texas and OU in four computers. If Florida wins out, they keep that buffer between the Longhorns and Sooners that will be needed when the computers spit out their data.

Now, if you are hanging on to the possibility that Texas can play Tech in the national championship game, by all means root for The Citadel (good luck) or Florida State to knock off the Gators, and then have Florida beat Alabama in the SEC Championship. The BCS still might take Florida in that situation, however.

Root for USC.

I know asking some Texas fans to root for USC is akin to asking Al Queda to root for good old fashioned Western values, but USC is above OU in one poll, and tied with them in another. For that matter root for Notre Dame and UCLA (USC’s final two opponents) to make USC’s schedule more attractive to the computers.

Went too far for some of you, didn’t I?

Root for Alabama.

It appears the best thing for Texas might be for the SEC to win out. Alabama is ahead of OU in two computer rankings (and still behind Texas), so we need them to stay on top as well.

Plus I think they’d be the easiest opponent we could face in Miami.

Root for Pittsburgh to beat Cincinnati.

Root for Dave Wannstedt and the Panthers to knock off Cincinnati this weekend. As ridiculous as it sounds, the Bearcats are 19th in the country in the BCS standings, which is good for OU since they beat them in Norman earlier this season. Pittsburgh has won the last three in this series, so we’ve got that going for us, which is nice.

Root for Air Force to beat TCU.

You should be rooting for the Air Force in wartime, anyhow, but again, TCU is ranked 16th in the country in the BCS rankings, so that helps OU, who beat them in Norman earlier in the season. Be warned that Air Force is a 19.5 point underdog, but hey, Meadow Soprano is also dating Turtle, so maybe hell is freezing over.

Root for Florida Atlantic to beat Arkansas State, UTEP to beat Houston, Rice to beat Marshall, and Arkansas to beat Mississippi State

Do you see what the BCS does? It makes us root for Arkansas and Oklahoma in the same weekend. If that isn’t a vote for a playoff system, I don’t know what is.

But it’s going to be close if Oklahoma wins out, so we need all the help that we can get.

And these scenarios are all about the computers. Who the hell knows what the human pollsters are going to do? The interesting thing will be when some of these teams start losing (and they will), and where the human votes go.

For example, if Texas Tech loses this weekend, where do all of their votes go? Do voters simply follow the status quo and move Texas up and Oklahoma up one spot? Or do the pollsters move OU in front of Texas? What if Florida were to lose to Florida State? Do the pollsters vote for the Tech/OU winner, or do they give votes to Texas?

We’re due for some good news. Stay tight Longhorn fans, it’s coming. Remember, I’m the guy that told you we were going to the Rose Bowl in the 2004 season to face Michigan when nobody else believed it, and I’m the guy that told you we wanted to play USC in the Rose Bowl in 2005 season.

And I’m the guy that is telling you were going to Miami, somehow, someway.

Of course I’m also the guy that’s lost $1170 in the last four weeks.

But don’t focus on that part.

Facebook News Feed

Fox and the BCS are no longer in a relationship.

BCS and the Rose Bowl wrote on Oregon State’s wall: “Please lose.”

Dezmon Briscoe and David Tyree are now friends.

Washington, Tennessee and Clemson cancelled the event Interviewing Will Muschamp.

Vanderbilt is wondering how the hell you’re supposed to play football in December or January, even!

Mark Mangino says everything is made better by ice cream.

On to the games...

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati -5:

Pittsburgh is an inexplicable 20 point loss to Rutgers away from an 8 game winning streak, while Cincinnati has won 7 of 8 themselves.

The Bearcats are on about their 12th quarterback of the year, but Dustin Grutza is working his way back, and Tony Pike was more than adequate in his time under center as well.

But with weather conditions expected to be in the 30’s on Saturday, this game is going to come down to who can run the ball, and that match-up goes to Pitt and LeSean McCoy, the nation’s 12 best rusher. Cincinnati can’t run the ball, and Pitt’s front seven is good enough to get pressure on whomever the quarterback might be at the time.

Pittsburgh 27 Cincinnati 23
ATS – Pittsburgh
SU – Pittsburgh

Michigan State @ Penn State -14:

Penn State really only played one good quarter last week, but it was enough to get a blowout win over hapless Indiana.

The player to watch in this game is Michigan State running back Javon Ringer. As he goes, so does Michigan State. If he’s able to find some running room and get more than 100 yards, then Michigan State has a chance, if he’s not, well then they’re not equipped to even come close to Penn State.

Penn State 30 Michigan State 17
ATS – Michigan State
SU – Penn State

BYU @ Utah -7:

BYU’s defense was playing as well as its offense earlier in the year, but starting with the loss at TCU, they have been scorched for 32 points to TCU, 35 to UNLV, 42 to Colorado State and 24 to Air Force.

Their offense has of course been good enough to make up for it, but Utah has had no such lapses.

Utah 38 BYU 30
ATS – Utah
SU – Utah

Michigan @ Ohio State -20.5:

Wow. I can’t remember the last time this game had no intrigue at all. In fact the only reason this game is in this column this week is for the second week in a row we have just dismal match-ups.

The Wolverines have been abysmal this year, but in the last ten years of this match-up, the biggest margin of victory has been 16 points. Of course that was when both teams were competitive, but I have a hard time believing Ohio State blows them out here.

Ohio State 34 Michigan 21
ATS – Michigan
SU – Ohio State

Mississippi @ LSU -3.5:

LSU somehow found enough offense to come back from a 28 point deficit to Troy last week, while Mississippi is riding a three game winning streak.

Mississippi hasn’t beaten LSU since 2001, but they have the rush defense to contain LSU and force Jarrett Lee to throw the ball, which is like taking candy from a baby this year.

Mississippi 27 LSU 21
ATS – Mississippi
SU – Mississippi

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma -7:

And finally we get to a game that means a shit.

By now, you’ve heard it all. Oklahoma is #1 in the country in scoring offense. Texas Tech is #3. Tech is #1 in passing offense. Oklahoma is #3. Tech is #2 in total offense. Oklahoma is #4.

The teams are very close, but give me Oklahoma due to the game being in Norman, and due to the fact that Texas Tech isn’t going to finish a season undefeated.

Right?

Oklahoma 44 Texas Tech 41
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Oklahoma

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for TWTWB’s bailout.

Matt

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 3-3 SU
For the Year: 35-30-1 (.538) ($200) ATS 52-14 (.788) SU

What we learned last week: We learned that two Mountain West teams can play a very interesting ballgame that nobody in America actually received from their local cable or satellite company. And TCU is once again saying “maybe next year” with regards to their BCS hopes…We learned that apparently you can make a field goal in the first game of the season, not make any for two months, and then make one to knock off undefeated and second ranked Penn State. Daniel Murray probably did very well with the ladies on the Iowa campus last Saturday night, although judging by the 2006 Alamo Bowl, I’m not sure that is a good thing…Holy hell if LSU’s Jarrett Lee isn’t the worst quarterback in America, who is? The kid has thrown 14 interceptions this year, and 6 of them have been returned for a touchdown. That is the making of a bad sports movie starring Orlando Bloom as the back-up quarterback to a struggling quarterback, then the quarterback injures his knee, Bloom steps in, takes the guy’s job and his cheerleader quarterback and leads head coach Kurt Russell to a national championship. All we’re missing is for Lee to hit a mascot on the sideline with one of his ducks…The only thing funnier than the Aggies getting run in their own house is their website reporting that the Aggies won the game. Are the Aggies the 5th best program in the state of Texas? Who would you bid on winning a conference title first? Texas? Of course. Texas Tech? Um yeah. TCU? Probably. Baylor? Hell, why not, they’re a 8 point favorite this week…Welcome back to the future, the Oklahoma State team that we all know and love. You knew that Tech was going to get their yards, but really, OSU, you could only get a meager 360 yards? My stomach hurts…And finally, we learned that 8 guys can catch a pass, the Longhorns can get 494 yards, and we can still feel like it was a lackluster win that can be improved upon. Isn’t it great being a Texas fan? We tailgate with a beer with one hand and a bottle of Pepto-Bismol in the other.

Anyhow…

There is a heated debate sweeping the country, as a group of voters tries to decide who belongs in a sacred circle, and who will be left listening to Elton John records and crying their eyes out.

But enough about Prop 8, because this is a college football column and we have a decision to make on who makes the BCS National Championship game and who is left out.

First of all, let’s get rid of this tired notion that the national championship game will be a showdown of the Big 12 South and the SEC. Last year at this exact time, the BCS standings looked like this:

1. LSU (lost to Arkansas and still made it to the Championship game)
2. Oregon (lost Dennis Dixon, were last seen wearing ugly uniforms)
3. Kansas (lost to Missouri and then lost the “Slimmest Coach” competition)
4. Oklahoma (Lost to Texas Tech in Lubbock)
5. Missouri (Lost to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship)
6. West Virginia (Lost to Pittsburgh at home, kicker received more death threats than Martin Luther King Jr….but still came out ahead in that battle)
7. Ohio State (Lost to Illinois in second to last game)
8. Arizona State (Lost to USC on Thanksgiving)
9. Georgia (Won out…still didn’t get to the title game. Interesting.)
10. Virginia Tech (Won out…until the Orange Bowl)

So it might look set in stone that Alabama/Florida will play Texas Tech/Oklahoma/Texas, and last year might have been an aberration, but as the great John F. Kennedy said, we would like to live as we once lived, but history will not permit it.

Upsets will happen. Let’s take a look at the contenders.

1st and Goal

Alabama – SEC! SEC! SEC! For all the talk about how great the SEC is, Alabama has the worst schedule of all the contenders (56th), and that includes USC, who plays in the watered down Pac-10. But none of it matters because they are undefeated. If they win out, they’ll be in Miami, where Nick Saban wins lots of games. Oh wait. But, if Alabama were to lose to Mississippi State, or Auburn, or in the SEC Championship game, they probably don’t have the resume to make up the ground.

Texas Tech – Much like Alabama, Tech has one of the worst schedules of the contenders (34th), but again, it doesn’t matter because they are undefeated. Has anyone gone ahead and checked to see if the seas haven’t dried up and hell isn’t frozen over? The Red Raiders have somehow given up more points to Eastern Washington than they did Oklahoma State, scored more points against Texas than they did Nevada, didn’t cover the spread against SMU, somehow let UMass score 14 points, and they are within striking distance of Miami and a berth in the national championship game.

Would it really surprise anyone if Tech went to Norman next week and lost to OU by 30 points? It wouldn’t surprise me in the least bit. But it is what it is.

Sidenote: In their last two games, Texas Tech has 108 passing attempts. There have been zero holding calls against their offense. I’m not usually one that likes to bitch about the refs (except for the 2006 NBA Finals, F you David Stern), but that is just a startling stat. You could tell me that Amy Winehouse went a whole week without smoking crack and I would be less shocked. It’s just not possible.

2nd and 5

Texas – The Longhorns have the best schedule of all the contenders (1st), beat #1 Oklahoma, #12 Missouri and #7 Oklahoma State in consecutive weeks, was leading #5 Texas Tech with 2 seconds left to play despite not playing their best game, have a comparable offense and defense to their national title team in 2005 and still might have the worst shot of any of the Top 5 teams to get to Miami.
If Tech wins out, that’s bad for Texas. If Oklahoma wins out, that could be bad for Texas. If Alabama wins out, that’s bad for Texas. If Florida wins out, that is bad for Texas. It’s like the football Gods lured us in only to kick us swiftly in the groin…all because of a dropped interception and an improbable game winning play in Lubbock.

But take the noose off around your neck, unload the clip from the gun, step away from the ledge, spit up the cyanide tablet, and quit using the wireless internet in front of the bus, because all hope isn’t lost. The Horns probably want Alabama or Florida to lose before they get to Atlanta for the SEC Championship game (Alabama hasn’t beaten Auburn in forever and Florida DOES have to come back to Earth sometime and have to go to Tallahassee to play Florida State). And then they might want the team that loses to win the SEC Championship game. Notice I say “probably” and “might”. We don’t need a SEC team to lose, but it opens up the possibilities if they do.

Now, what we NEED to happen is this:

Scenario A: Oklahoma beats Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, a three way tie in the Big 12 South ensues. Texas wins on a matter of the tie-breaker being the team with the highest BCS ranking. Now this one is going to be close if Oklahoma wins out, so root AGAINST TCU and Cincinnati, OU’s biggest non-conference wins. The Horns go on to the Big 12 Championship game, take care of Missouri again, and go to Miami.

Scenario B: Texas Tech beats Oklahoma and Baylor, or Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma but Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State. Tech goes on to lose to Missouri. In this scenario, we leap-frog a falling Texas Tech and goes to Miami without winning their conference title. If that is going to happen any year, this is the year.

Get it? I’m sure there are other scenarios, but those two are the most prominent. Repeat with me. F TCU, F Cincinnati. F K-State and Nebraska, too, because OU played them and we did not.

Florida – Florida sits in the nice position of being 4th in the country, but sit in the driver’s seat for Miami. They don’t have the pressure of being #1 or #2, all they have to do is win out and they are probably in Miami. The Gators have South Carolina and the always dangerous Citadel (if you fear ROTC programs) and Florida State left on their schedule. They are probably due for a clunker game...but when will it come? And does anyone want to see smug Urban Meyer win another national title so soon after their last one? Does anyone want the smug SEC winning another one? Was anyone really surprised when Lance Bass declared that he was gay?

Oklahoma – Ugh. You mean to tell me that Texas could finish the season 11-1, with one of those wins being a 10 point win in the Cotton Bowl over #1 Oklahoma, and OU can still go to the Big 12 game, win there and go to Miami and play for the national championship? Who the hell is running this thing, the Joker? Will Batman save the day at any point now? Will Texas fans ever recover, or will there be a line to get to downtown office buildings and jump off of them? Will we even have to worry about it, the way OU plays in BCS bowl games? Who does Clay Aiken think he is fooling?

3rd and Long

USC – The Trojans are giving up 6.7 points per game. If they keep up that pace, it will be the greatest defensive effort in the history of college football. And they are 6th in the country. Who says offense wins games, but defense wins championships? Apparently somebody who’s team played in a playoff system. USC’s loss looked terrible at the time, but not so bad now (Oregon State is 6-3 and still controls their own destiny to the Rose Bowl), but it doesn’t matter, because they aren’t getting any help from their schedule, and are probably only this high because of their name brand. But who wouldn’t want to see what this defense could do against Texas Tech. Would you wager one dollar that Alabama could beat USC on a neutral field when they went to overtime last week with a team that had Bozo the Clown playing quarterback? I wouldn’t.

But it is what it is, and what it is is (holy hell say that 10 times fast) that USC lost a game, and have nobody to blame but themselves.

Like plenty of other teams will be saying this time next month.

Facebook News Feed

Jarrett Lee has joined the group We’d be better off punting every time.

College Football Fans are wasting everyone’s time drawing up inane playoff brackets.

Mike Leach is considering throwing a game so he wouldn’t have to interview with the Detroit Lions.

Charlie Weis has joined the group Maybe It is Me.

Joe Paterno doesn’t even know what a computer is, much less Facebook but hopes he’s around another year.

Stephen McGee is thinking I should have gone to Georgia.

Texas Tech and Satan are now friends.

Buck Burnette has left Facebook.

David Duke has left Facebook.

Archie Bunker has left Facebook.

On to the games...

Georgia -8.5 @ Auburn:

Georgia’s defense has taken a hit the last two weeks, giving up 49 points to Florida and 38 to Kentucky. That’s about the only hope that Auburn has, as their highest point total in a SEC game this year is 22 the scored against Arkansas.

Georgia is good enough to drub an Auburn team on the decline.

Georgia 31 Auburn 13
ATS – Georgia
SU – Georgia

Mississippi State @ Alabama -21:

Alabama is coming off an emotional week, had a rough, physical game on the road last week, are ranked #1 and aren’t used to it, and have been listening for a couple of weeks now about how good they are and how if they win out they are playing for a national title.

Perfect trap game, no? Yeah, if it wasn’t Mississippi State.

The Bulldogs have only won 3 games all year, and two of those were against directional schools from not very big electoral states (Southwestern Louisiana & Middle Tennessee State). But beware of the dogs (sorry), they do have a pretty good defense (pass defense #2 in the country, total defense #19)…

But that defense hasn’t shown up against good teams.

Alabama 31 Mississippi State 6
ATS – Alabama
SU – Alabama

South Carolina @ Florida -22:

This one could be interesting.

Steve Spurrier returns to The Swamp, where his Gamecocks lost a heartbreaker 17-16 in 2006 when Florida played Dikembe Mutombo against every kick they tried (I think a kickoff was even blocked).

Spurrier finally decided on a QB, and it will be Stephen Garcia and Chris Smelley. Hey baby, you knew I was a playa when you got in da game. South Carolina has won 6 of 7 since starting the season 1-2 (with the one loss coming to Bozo the Clown and LSU by 7 points). Can South Carolina pull off the upset?

Quite possible.

The Gamecocks haven’t allowed more than 24 points all year, and while they haven’t played an offense like Florida’s, it can be argued that Florida has yet to face a defense like South Carolina’s. And you know Spurrier wants this one.
But…they just don’t have the horses (or the human beings) to get it done here.

Florida 27 South Carolina 23
ATS – South Carolina
SU – Florida

Oklahoma State -16.5 @ Colorado:

Yikes this week’s match-ups suck if this is an ABC prime-time game. Don’t you know Brent Musberger did a double take when he had to read the promo for this game this week? Can’t we get some flex scheduling and have OU and OSU play this week, setting up next week’s game with Tech with everything on the line? Who do I talk to about this?

Oklahoma State 41 Colorado 24
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Texas A&M @ Baylor -8:

My, my, my.

Remember that fateful night in 2004 when Baylor shocked A&M by converting a two point conversion? Remember being giddy like a kid on Christmas morning, waiting to hear the play by play call from ultra-homer Dave South on the Aggie radio network? Remember giggling when later in the season someone wore a bear suit to DKR when the Aggies came to town?

Now, wouldn’t you be more shocked if A&M won this game?

The Aggies are giving up 448 yards a game on the road this year, which is more astounding when you consider that they’ve played 3 road games against Oklahoma State (ok, no shame there), New Mexico (oh no) and Iowa State (oh no). Baylor should be able to run on the Aggies…but can they stop Jerrod Johnson? Sure, he looked very ordinary against Oklahoma, but although OU’s defense is nowhere near their reputation, it is still better than Baylor’s.

Baylor sneaks one out here…and are upset about it.

Baylor 37 Texas A&M 31
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – Baylor

Texas -13 @ Kansas:

Can Texas avoid choking on the Thanksgiving turkey?

Texas lost to Texas A&M last November. To Kansas State and Texas A&M the November before that. It’s a disturbing trend, but one to have to consider and overcome.

Kansas has lost 3 out of their last 4, and they haven’t been pretty, as they gave up 674 yards to Oklahoma, 556 to Texas Tech and 495 to Nebraska. If Colt McCoy and the rest of the offense play up to their abilities, Texas should score at least 40 points.

On defense, Texas hopes to have Brian Orakpo back, and they will probably need him, as outside of the Texas Tech game where he threw 3 interceptions, Reesing has been solid, throwing for 23 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. On the flip side, however, he has thrown interceptions in 4 straight games.

The Kansas running game is nothing to worry about. They rank 68th in the country and have been ineffective much of the year.

And it’s going to be cold. High of 49 in Lawrence on Saturday, with 20 mph winds forecasted.

I like Texas with their short passing game and lots of Fozzy Whitaker in that situation.

Texas 45 Kansas 24
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for bribes for college football poll voters.

Matt

Last Week: - 0-6 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 33-26-1 (.559) ($440) ATS 49-11 (.817) SU

What we learned last week: We learned that you have Matthew Stafford, I have Colt McCoy, I’ll take McCoy. How the hell did Florida lose to Mississippi? Get ready for the fellatio of Florida, college football fans…Florida State isn’t quite back…and I can’t think of a single other thing to say about that game…Alabama says not so fast to trap games, as they took care of a solid Arkansas State team with no trouble. That’s the sign of good coaching…We learned that Baylor isn’t the same as “BYE” anymore. Art Briles and Robert Griffin have that program going in the right direction, it’s just too bad for them that they reside in the Big 12 South…We learned that holy crap Oklahoma can put up the points quickly. Let’s all hope that Sam Bradford goes pro this Spring…We learned that while Texas might not have to play a perfect game at home to win (Oklahoma State), they’d damn better take care of things early on the road. Falling down 19-0 is inexcusable in a game like that. But look at the bright side, absolutely everything went Texas Tech’s way Saturday night, and the Longhorns held the lead with :02 seconds left in the game. Salty.

Anyhow…

Holy crap, what a week. I’m pretty sure if Osama bin Laden was put into the general population at Leavenworth Federal Prison he wouldn’t have weeks as bad as that one.

0-6 in The Week That Will Be.

Lose to Texas Tech on the last second of the game.

The Cowboys look like a roster full of homeless bums found on the New Jersey boardwalk against the New York Giants.

And we won’t even mention the election.

But we HOPE to CHANGE the tide this week, and officially declare last week buried, dead, gone.

Sadly, we are nearing the end of the college football regular season, and it is time to see where teams might end up in the post-season. Here are Matt’s Bowl Game Projections.

The Bailout Bowl – Ron Prince vs. Phil Fulmer Apparently Barack Obama being elected President was way too much for the Racial Equality Gods to handle, because Ron Prince (one of only 6 African-American coaches in NCAA Football) will resign this week. Despite his 2-0 record against Texas, the 14-18 record in his other games apparently wasn’t enough for that rich college football powerhouse that is Kansas State. Speaking of powerhouses, a national title wasn’t enough for Phil Fulmer to keep the job at his alma-mater, so he’s back to the ever lucrative Fred Thompson look-alike circuit.

The Idiotic Moron Bowl – The Coach That Voted OU #1 This Week vs. The Idiotic Woman on YouTube This Week That Said Obama Will Pay For Her Gas and Her Mortgage

Seriously? In what warped mind is Oklahoma #1? In fact, the other 118 coaches don’t get off the hook for putting Oklahoma and USC in front of Texas. And Florida in front of them, either. Look, you can make an argument for Florida, they’re playing very good ball. But they got beat by that village idiot Houston Nutt and Mississippi. Huge strike. USC beat Ohio State (woo-hoo!), but the rest of their schedule reads like a hodge-podge of NCAA basketball exhibition games against Athletes in Action, EA Sports and P Diddy’s All-Stars.

And Oklahoma, who did they lose to? Hmm…it’s right at the tip of my tongue….oh yeah, TEXAS. But oh yeah, it was way back in August, oh wait, no, it was FOUR weeks ago. And the moron that put Oklahoma at #1 (I’m betting Joe Paterno woke up in the middle of the night and saw his friend Bud Wilkinson looking at him and freaked out) should be forbidden to ever vote again in any poll and any national election. The moron probably voted for Michael Dukakis yesterday.

The Thanks a Lot Rich Rodriguez Bowl – Weather in Michigan in the Winter vs. Weather in the South in the Winter

For the first time in 33 years, Michigan fans won’t have a bowl game to attend, as their loss to Purdue on Saturday guaranteed a losing season. Wolverine fans are encouraged to send their heftier heating bills to Rich Rodriguez. Will Rodriguez turn it around at Michigan? Probably, but damn, they have talent in the backfield, and how long does it take to teach to run the football? Georgia Tech seems to be doing just fine in the first year under Paul Johnson. And it’s not like the Big 10 schedule is murderer’s row. If Michigan is still struggling next year, Rodriguez might be a contender for the Bailout Bowl.

The Which is More Assholish Bowl – Urban Meyer’s First Timeout Against Georgia In the Final Minute vs. Urban Meyer’s Second Timeout Against Georgia In the Final Minute

But hey, Tim Tebow is the “best spread quarterback in America” according to CBS commentator Gary Danielson, which is about as accurate as saying Brad Johnson is the best back-up quarterback in the NFL. Tebow seems like a good kid, but he likes to wear jorts, so there is a reason to hate him right there. Add Urban Meyer’s smugness and the general attitude of the SEC in general, and I’m hoping we play a SEC team in a bowl game, no matter which bowl game it is.

The Mike Leach Bowl – Tennessee vs. Washington

Mike Leach announces that he is going to leave Texas Tech at the end of the year, but requires that the athletic departments of the University of Tennessee and the University of Washington have to have a pirate fight to the death in order to secure his services. The event is held at the Treasure Island Hotel in Las Vegas and is televised on ESPN2.

The LOL Cats Bowl

vs.

What a great website.

And now some Big 12 Bowls…

The Independence Bowl – Colorado vs. Louisiana Lafayette

This is why Darrell Scott came to Colorado, dammit. Buffs, Cajuns, in Shreveport 3 days after Christmas? Does it GET any better than that? He might have to leave Colorado due to the increase in sponsorship offers due to the high profile match-up.

The Insight Bowl – Nebraska vs. Iowa

Kirk Ferentz gets paid $3.2 million to bring his Iowa squad to big games like the Insight Bowl. Nebraska is just glad not to be playing another spread offense.

The Alamo Bowl – Kansas vs. Minnesota

Minnesota coach Tim Brewster gets to return to Texas, while Kansas coach Mark Mangino gets to return to Mexican food restaurants. It’s really a win win situation.

The Sun Bowl – Missouri vs. Oregon

Spectators on the hills surrounding the stadium are so repulsed by Oregon’s uniforms that they forget to stick their hands down each other’s pants. It’s really a lose lose situation.

The Holiday Bowl – Oklahoma vs. California

The Sooners throw their last game against Oklahoma State in order to avoid a fifth straight BCS bowl loss, figuring that California would be easier to beat. Sam Bradford’s acne clears up in the pristine California air, and he forces a trade to San Diego in April’s NFL Draft.

The Cotton Bowl – Texas Tech vs. LSU

LSU gave up 50 points to Florida and Georgia, what the hell are they going to do against Texas Tech? Mike Leach gets bored by the end of the game and gets someone to operate the Ferris Wheel.

The Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma State vs. Boise State

43 year old Ian Johnson isn’t enough for the Broncos, as Oklahoma State clobbers them. After Oklahoma State fails to sell enough tickets, T Boone Pickens buys thousands of tickets and recruits illegals from Mexico to sit in the seats. The Fiesta Bowl gets a whole different meaning.

The National Championship Game – Texas vs. Florida

Where the hell did you expect me to project us at?

Let us take a look at the BCS standings:

1. Alabama
2. Texas Tech
3. Penn State
4. Texas
5. Florida
6. Oklahoma

Now, consider this. Two of those teams are GUARANTEED to lose a game this year, because they play each other (if Alabama plays Florida in the SEC Championship game).

Does anyone really expect Texas Tech to win out? Do you really think they’ll go into Norman and beat Oklahoma, where Bob Stoops is 59-2 in his career?

Hell, would it shock anyone if they lost this week? They’ve already played and won their national championship game by beating the Longhorns. This is, after all, the same team that was losing to Texas A&M at the half and had to go to OT to beat Nebraska. They played a perfect game on Saturday, got all of the breaks, and still needed a miracle comeback to beat Texas. They’ll lose at least once, probably twice.

Penn State has the easiest road to the championship game, playing home games against 3-5 Indiana and 8-2 Michigan State and going on the road to play 5-4 Iowa this week. They’ve got a pretty solid offense and a dominating defense, but let’s just go on the premise that no team this year is good enough to go undefeated. I know that’s a weak premise, but sue me. Something tells me that Penn State loses one of these games (and by the way, I would have said that before Texas lost last week).

Alabama has won some impressive games this year and has won some not-so impressive games this year. I think their lack of a passing game catches up to them at some point, perhaps this week at LSU.

There is still a lot of football to be played. The computers love us, and the humans will come around on us after we show them we’re not going anywhere. But make no mistake about it.

We win out, and the dominoes will fall for us. Because we’re Texas.

And let’s say it all together now.

Yes, we can.

This is our moment, this is our time.

Facebook Status Messages

Big 12 Officials skipped the portion of the rulebook where they talk about holding.

Texas becomes a fan of Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.

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Texas wrote on Notre Dame’s Wall: “Gotcha.”

On to the games...

TCU -2.5 @ Utah:

Who knew this would be such a big game this late in the season? TCU (9-1) and Utah (9-0) both harbor dreams of being BCS busters, and the winner of this game certainly takes the inside track towards that.

The Horned Frogs are rolling since getting QB Andy Dalton back from injury and have won 5 straight since an early season loss to Oklahoma. TCU relies on a strong ground game (12th in the country) and a defense (2nd in the country in total defense) that has only allowed 42 points in those five wins.

Utah was challenged by New Mexico last week, but have gone through their schedule with nary a challenge. They also have a tough defense (7th in the country).

This match-up looks really close. Give me Utah due to the home field advantage.

Utah 24 TCU 21
ATS – Utah
SU – Utah

Penn State -7.5 @ Iowa:

With Penn State getting Michigan State at home later this year, this might be the best chance for an upset.

Penn State hasn’t won at Iowa since 1999. QB Darryl Clark is coming off a concussion against Ohio State. Iowa has the nation’s 7th best scoring defense and has 5 interceptions in their last two games against Illinois and Wisconsin. Iowa has 4 losses this year, but they are by a combined 11 points. They played Michigan State, Northwestern and Pittsburgh tough in losses. The weather forecast is 46 degrees, which might slow down Penn State’s spread offense. Pumped home crowd.

There are your reasons for an upset. Will it happen? Probably not.

Penn State 28 Iowa 14
ATS – Penn State
SU – Penn State

Alabama -3 @ LSU:

Oh what a delicious game. Nick Saban returns to Baton Rouge with Alabama at #1, while LSU is just hoping to play spoiler. Outstanding theater.

It has been quite the Jekyll and Hyde defense for the Tigers this year, as they’re ranked 21st in total defense, but gave up a combined 103 points in games against Florida and Georgia earlier this year. If the Jekyll defense can show up and make Alabama one dimensional, watch out.

Every stat points towards Alabama here, but somehow I just don’t see LSU going 0-3 in their big match-ups this year. And I find it hard to believe that any SEC can go through to the title game without a loss. Jarrett Lee is good enough to get the job done while Alabama’s defense has a slip-up game.

LSU 28 Alabama 21
ATS – LSU
SU – LSU

Oklahoma -27 @ Texas A&M:

Oklahoma looked like Obama in the Northeast last week, up 28-0 with barely six minutes gone off the clock in the first quarter against Nebraska.

But…

For whatever reason, the Sooners have trouble in College Station.

2006: Oklahoma 17 Texas A&M 16
2004: Oklahoma 42 Texas A&M 35
2002: Texas A&M 30 Oklahoma 26
2000: Oklahoma 35 Texas A&M 31
1998: Texas A&M 29 Oklahoma 0

Can you explain that? I sure as hell can’t. The Sooners are good, but the Aggies have been better as late, with QB Jarrod Johnson completing 63% of his passes and holding a 18/4 TD/INT ratio.

The Sooners have been giving up yards in bunches lately, and I see them giving up more here.

Oklahoma 41 Texas A&M 27
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – Oklahoma

Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech -3:

The home team has won every game in this series since 2001, and the Cowboys haven’t beaten Tech in Lubbock since 1944. Those two trends look great for the Red Raiders.

But…

Can the Red Raiders live up to the hype two weeks in a row? Can they get up for the Cowboys the same that they did for the Longhorns? We don’t know, because Texas Tech has never been in this situation.

One thing that Oklahoma State can throw at you is a ridiculous running game. Kendall Hunter is averaging 135 yards per game, and if you bottle him up, then you have to deal with WR Dez Bryant, who is averaging 117 yards and 6 catches per game.

Think about that. Fozzy Whitaker (a good talent) and Malcolm Williams (a good talent) tore up Texas Tech in the second half of the game last week, and those guys are nowhere near the level of Hunter and Bryant right now.

So we’ve established that Oklahoma State will be able to move the football on Texas Tech.

Can the Cowboys contain Harrell and Crabtree? Probably not, but they should be able to get some turnovers (rank 22nd in the nation in turnover margin, picked off Chase Daniel 3 times).

When the pass fell incomplete at the end of the Texas/Oklahoma State game, I said that day on the way back to the tailgate that Oklahoma State was the best team we faced this year and that I could easily see them running the table. I’m not wavering from that until they give me reason to. I have a hard time seeing Texas Tech getting up for two games in a row.

Oklahoma State 38 Texas Tech 34
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Baylor @ Texas -27:

For those of you wondering what I was alluding to in the Notre Dame blurb above, if Texas wins this game and Notre Dame loses to Boston College, the Longhorns will tie the Irish for second place in all-time wins (829).

Whew. After 4 games against Top 12 teams, the Longhorns can finally rest. Okay maybe not, Baylor isn’t Baylor of old.

QB Robert Griffin set a NCAA record for most completions without an interception before throwing one at the end of the game trying to come back against Missouri last week. The kid is for real, as he has thrown for nearly 1700 yards, with 11 touchdowns and 1 interception. He also averages about 65 yards a game on the ground, which is significant, because outside of Zac Robinson at Oklahoma State, the Longhorns haven’t really faced that dual threat QB this year.

On offense, the Horns shouldn’t have much trouble. Baylor is giving up 245 yards per game through the air, and rank 83rd in the country in sacks and 110th in the country in tackles for losses.

I think the Horns win this one easily…but that line is a bit big for a Baylor squad that has really played better than their record indicates thus far.

Texas 41 Baylor 17
ATS – Baylor
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money and do your patriotic duty and give it to the government.

Friday Night Tailgates

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Colt McCoy Motivated By Heisman Snub

Maybe Texas Fans Aren't Excited, Either

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Murray, Granger to Miss Title Game

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Buckeyes Not Keen on the Fiesta Bowl

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Colt named Heisman Finalist

Monday, December 8, 2008

Where is the outrage?

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Welcome to Phoenix

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

The Week That Will Be (12.06.08)

Monday, December 1, 2008

I don't really know what to tell you, Texas fans

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

The Week That Will Be (Thanksgiving 2008)

Sunday, November 23, 2008

You Might Need This, Fellow Texas Fans

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

The Week That Will Be (11.22.08)

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

The Week That Will Be (11.15.08)

Monday, November 10, 2008

A Reminder to All Pollsters

Friday, November 7, 2008

The LM Blog: Baylor Preview

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

The Week That Will Be (11.08.08)

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