Friday Night Tailgates

The Week That Will Be (2011 Holiday Bowl)

2011-12-28T00:21:00.000-06:00

for only love can conquer hate… – Marvin Gaye, “What’s Goin’ On?”

When Texas and Cal meet on Wednesday night in the Holiday Bowl, it will be the first meeting for the teams since the fall of 1970, when the Longhorns defeated the Golden Bears 50-15 on the way to their second consecutive national championship. Cal would finish the season at 6-5, their 18th consecutive season with at least three losses (their streak would reach 38 seasons until the 1991 team went 10-2). The game was an afterthought, not much of a blip on the radar for Texas fans.

But the summer of 1970 was certainly noteworthy. It was then in the famous studio Hitsville, USA in Detroit that Motown artist Marvin Gaye began recording what would become one of the most celebrated tunes of all-time, What’s Goin On, a soulful, jazzy take on the political climate surrounding the quickly disintegrating Vietnam War.

Inspired by the letters sent home to him from his brother fighting in the war, Gaye put his career on the line to bring the controversial tune to the masses, refusing to record anything else until producer Berry Gordy agreed to release it. Gaye won out when a Los Angeles disc jockey started playing the single in January of 1971, spurring on the record label to release the full album later that spring when it vaulted to the top of the R&B charts. Ultimately, good taste won out, as the single and album are both recognized as one of the greatest of all-time by Rolling Stone and several other publications.

It was controversial, of course, due to the unrest occurring in cities across the country in response to the unpopular war, and one place where that climate flourished was Berkeley, California, and specifically on the campus of the University of California.

Noted as one of the finest public institutions on the globe, Cal has become famous (or infamous, depending on your viewpoint), for its activism, most notably the Free Speech Movement of 1964 and various Vietnam War protests in the 60’s and 70’s. That tradition has carried on today, as tree sitters have halted construction on campus, most notably California Memorial Stadium, where several trees needed to be removed for civil progress.

Ask anyone on the street about the University of California, and you are likely to hear about the activism or the scholastic reputation…you’ll probably hear something about anti-war protests and love.

If only that love extended to the University of Texas. And Mack Brown.

If you are reading this column, you likely know about the controversy in 2004 when Texas passed Cal in the final BCS standings and denied the Golden Bears their first Rose Bowl berth since 1959. The media perpetrated the theory that Brown “lobbied” for votes after the Longhorns’ 26-13 victory over Texas A&M to finish the regular season at 10-1. Never mind the fact that Texas actually lost votes the next day despite defeating the ranked Aggies and Cal enjoying a bye week.

Nope, it was easier for a anti-BCS, bloodthirsty media to latch on to Texas as a villain (the current realignment and Longhorn Network issues come to mind), insisting that it was Brown that won over the votes needed in the AP and Coaches’ poll to vault Texas over Cal, ignoring that the fact that for one, California was ahead of Texas in the final voters polls, and second, that even if the perceived pro-Texas biases were “corrected”, Texas would have still finished ahead of Cal in the BCS due to their strength in the computers.

“I guess we didn’t run up the score at the end, or beg for votes after the game,” Cal quarterback Aaron Rodgers said at the time. “I thought it was (wrong) for Coach Brown to beg for votes after the A&M game.”

Welcome to big time college football, California. Texas felt the same way in 2008, and Oklahoma State feels the same way this year. With the imperfections of the system that we have, it is rare that there is going to be a year that a controversy of some sort isn’t present.

But all of that was a long time ago, right? The freshmen on this year’s team were 10 or 11 years old when that controversy occurred, probably more occupied with their Xbox than they were with keeping up with college football politics. That, coupled with the facts that Cal has since gone into a nosedive (or corrected itself if you look at its record prior to that year), Texas won a national championship the following year, Texas played for a national championship in 2009, and the fact that that California was drubbed by a 7-4 Texas Tech team in the Holiday Bowl while Texas defeated Michigan in the Rose Bowl, and all of that groundswell would have died out by now, right?

“Yes, I’m still upset about it. We got ‘em now in the Holiday Bowl.” – Aaron Rodgers, December 2011

Wow.

Rodgers has since, of course, gone on to replace the legendary Brett Favre in Green Bay, leading the Packers to a Super Bowl title last season, and has made fantasy football owners giddy by posting ridiculous numbers, has led the Pack to a 14-1 record…but still can’t get over the BCS snub seven years ago.

And he isn’t alone in that sentiment. If you went to any Cal message board that isn’t dedicated to the fine art of arbor perching when this bowl match-up was announced and you would have found much of the same sentiment, wanting “revenge” for taking what was theirs.

Those, of course, are the opinions of fans or alumni and not the coaching staff or current players. Cal coach Jeff Tedford, to this credit, has largely taken the high road on the subject, praising Texas and just saying that the Bears were disappointed. And once that football is kicked into the brisk San Diego air, all of this will fly out the window and it will just be football.

But for those Cal fans out there that still wish to harbor ill will towards Texas, and still hold on to that thought that big bad Texas took what was rightfully theirs, I remind you that love conquers hate, that it goes against the fiber of your school’s moral climate to hold on to that angst for this long.

But if you still must hate, I would love for you to see Texas get over on your school once again.

On to the game…

California vs. Texas -4:

Okay I’m about to invalidate my whole column, but forget everything that you read up there, that is all window dressing for the fans. Like I said, the players don’t really care about what happened seven years ago, and the coaches aren’t going to get dragged down that path either.

All that matters in this game is what happened in 2011, and what happened is that both teams predictably had topsy-turvy years that resulted in 7-5 years. Texas went from Garrett Gilbert’s team to dual-quarterback team to a power running team to David Ash’s team to Case McCoy’s team to relying on the defense to bail them out team. Cal went from relying upon the arm of Zach Maynard (averaged 262 yards passing through the first 7 games) to relying upon the running game (230 yards per game in the last four), finishing 3-1 in that stretch with their only loss a three point defeat at the hands of Stanford.

Texas appears to have everyone but Fozzy Whitaker back for this one, which means they’ll likely try to establish a running game above all else. Cal’s rushing defense was solid this year, giving up only 130 yards per game, but did have their troubles against rushing attacks such as Oregon (365 yards), UCLA (294 yards) and Arizona State (213 yards).

It is a defense that was solid for the most part, ranking near the top in the country in sacks and tackles for loss, but also giving up 30 points per game against Pac-12 opponents not named Washington State or Oregon State.

On offense, Cal relies on Maynard and running back Isi Sofele, who ranked 20th in the country in rushing yards per game. They cut back Maynard’s pass attempts dramatically in the last half of the season, instead focusing on Sofele and picking their spots with a receiving corps that combined for 2000 yards receiving between the two starters.

Truth be told, Texas saw better this season, and should be able to handle a Cal offense that isn’t as good as at least six teams that the Longhorns saw this year (Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Missouri and Texas Tech), and should be able to run on a defense that hasn’t seen a running game capable of such things outside of Oregon.

Cal will stay in this one for a half, but I see the Texas running game wearing them down in the second half.

Texas 34 California 21
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for the above album on iTunes.

The Week That Will Be (12.03.2011)

2011-11-30T23:44:00.000-06:00

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 41-37 (.526) ($10) ATS 51-27 (.654) SU

We learned last week that Andrew Luck is good again, but might not be as good as Matt Barkley, but we might punish Barkley for Reggie Bush’s family getting free housing, so then we’re going to give the award to Robert Griffin III, who three weeks ago everyone had written off until his epic efforts against the Herculean defenses of Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Kansas, but he goes to Baylor so we’re going to give the award to Trent Richardson because he’s a running back and he plays for Alabama and they’re good and stuff and they’re in the SEC, but first we’re going to pretend like we’re going to give it to the commuter school quarterback…

…we learned that Auburn’s worst offensive output in a decade (138 yards) shockingly wasn’t good enough to beat Alabama, and we’re almost certain that Kristi Malzahn had a word or two to say about that*.

*YouTube Link

…we learned that it has been four days since Michigan beat Ohio State.

…we learned that LSU’s defense is ridiculous…but their offense is rounding into shape as well as their 495 total yards were their most since 2007, their last BCS Championship season.

…we learned that Art Briles has no problem burning the redshirt of a quarterback he wanted to sit out in week 13 against a Texas Tech defense that I’m pretty sure J.J. Joe could have beaten off his couch.

And finally, we learned that things are all right in the world again.

Anyhow…

It is finally here, college football fans, it is CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK. In the Big 10, we have ads on Craigslist for seat fillers because they can’t sell all the seats in Indianapolis for a game against Wisconsin and Michigan State (Kramer just told Jerry he’s going to Indy); in the ACC we have a championship game between the worst #4 team in the history of the sport (Virginia Tech) against Clemson, who has about as much of a lifeline as Rick Neuheisel’s coaching career…

And speaking of Neuheisel, he’s already been fired because UCLA is having such a crappy season, yet they are playing in the inaugural Pac-12 Championship game, but only because the NCAA is punishing the current USC squad for Reggie Bush’s transgressions while Bush flies Kim Kardashian around the country in private jets…oh and UCLA will need a waiver to play in a bowl game if they lose this game because they will have a losing record…and THEY APPLIED FOR THE WAIVER ALREADY. Hey, come to Eugene and watch your Bruins take on the Ducks…oh wait, nevermind, we’re DOOOMED!”

Then you have LSU having to play in a SEC Championship game for the right to play in the BCS National Championship game against….Alabama, who they beat less than a month ago…that’s right, the BCS, where you lose a game in the regular season and then get a bye week while the team that beats you has to go against a pretty good Georgia squad….but oh wait, every BCS nerd with a #2 pencil is telling us that it doesn’t matter if LSU lines up my high school team that went 2-8 this year in LSU uniforms, because even if LSU loses, they’re going to the championship game…can you FEEL the excitement, SEC fans?

Then the best game of the weekend features Oklahoma against Oklahoma State, for the right to play Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl…yippee! Oklahoma State fans wear crimson and cream 51 weeks out of the year, so it will be odd for them to root against Oklahoma for a change, but really these two teams should sit down and try to decide which was a worst loss, OSU to Iowa State or OU to Texas Tech, but since Tech lost to Iowa State by about a Neuheisel (50 points), we’re going with Oklahoma losing to Tech.

So with Totally Meaningless Weekend (hype that one, ESPN…or sit on it for 8 years and don’t tell anybody for the sake of journalistic integrity and just throw common decency out the window) upon us, here are some more random thoughts…

-- And it’s goodbye to A&M… Really, could it have been scripted any better for Texas fans? I don’t think even beating the Aggies 66-6 would have been as satisfying as letting them blow yet another halftime lead, having them seemingly take the lead for good, and then finally putting together a scoring drive to snatch it from their fingers tightly holding it against their chest with a foot out the door to the SEC. If the Aggies had won that game, they would have thrown out the overwhelming series record and proclaimed all-time scoreboard, but now they just avert their gaze at you, curse the officials and Mike Sherman under their breath and try to convince themselves that a 6-6 record in the mighty Big 12 really translates to 9-3 in the watered-down SEC.

-- But there is one more left… Yes, it is somewhat sad that we’re pining for the Alamo Bowl while living in a town that the Brazos River doesn’t pass through, but 8-4 and a third tier bowl would be a welcome sight after last season and after looking at 6-6 in the face this time last week.

Not only that, but win in Waco and we’re looking at a 3-0 record against our in-state conference rivals…reasserting our place as the top dog in this state and reminding Baylor that beating Texas is a rare event for which they should not become accustomed.
Win in Waco, win the bowl game, and you’re riding a three game winning streak into the recruiting period and, more importantly, into next season with a squad that loses very little.

-- My weiner had a first name… Urban Meyer decided that his health and his family that he saw during the week while working for ESPN on the weekends was too much to handle, so he got back into the college game this week, agreeing to a 6-year, $24 million contract to head the Ohio State Buckeyes. Buckeye fans were even more annoying than usual this week, proclaiming that Meyer got his “dream job” and wouldn’t have come back for any other position….riiiiiiight. If Texas, Oklahoma, USC, Notre Dame, LSU or Alabama would have been open, and would have been offering that contract, the Ohio native would be coming up with some other excuse to spout during his introductory press conference. He’s a catch, Buckeye fans, but don’t fall in love…

-- Lord those hard times…Who knows better than I? A bunch of mediocre teams decided that their current coaching staff wasn’t getting the job done this week, as Arizona State, Washington State, UCLA, Illinois, Kansas and others made a coaching change. Mike Leach has already been hired in Pullman, which tells you how desperate he was to get back into the game, while UCLA and Arizona State seemed determined to fight over Kevin Sumlin at Houston before he inexplicably decides to stay there, because they are going to the Big East after all. No, you can’t just keep losing, but a dollar says that most of these places go cheap and we see their schools putting an ad on Monster within 3-4 years from now…

-- Leave the gun, take the cannoli… Back away from Manny Diaz and nobody gets hurt…does everyone understand?

-- But let’s hit rewind again… LSU vs. Alabama. You know what? Those two teams might very well be the best two teams in the country. But there is something wrong in a re-match in the BCS Championship game, which is a subjective contest in the first place.

Alabama had their chance, at home, and blew it in one of the least watchable games that I can remember this year. And then you add in the ridiculousness that if LSU loses and still goes to the game, we’ll have LSU vs. Alabama for the championship, while SEC Champion Georgia plays Houston in the Sugar Bowl. I find it hard to believe that Oklahoma State isn’t being punished here just because they are Oklahoma State, while Alabama is getting the benefit of the doubt because well, they’re Alabama. Signature win for Alabama this year? Arkansas? Eh. OSU will have beaten Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor and Texas. And yes, that loss to Iowa State, so they don’t really have an argument at all…I get it.

If only there was another way to determine a champion…and hey we wouldn’t be subjected to college basketball on December Saturday afternoons…

On to the games...

PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP: UCLA @ Oregon -31.5:

You could make the argument that the players might try to win this one for Neuheisel, but you could have also said that about Saturday’s game against USC. UCLA is terrible, and it is going to get worse before it gets better.

Oregon 52 UCLA 13
ATS – Oregon
SU – Oregon

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP: Virginia Tech -7 vs. Clemson:

Clemson won with shocking ease in Blacksburg in October, but they’ve lost three out of their last four by a combined score of 130-74. They don’t have the stomach for this fight.

Virginia Tech 27 Clemson 16
ATS – Virginia Tech
SU – Virginia Tech

BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin -9.5:

If you remember Michigan State won the regular season match-up with a hail mary at the end of regulation in a tie ballgame…both of these teams have a top 6 defense nationally but put up a combined 68 points in that ballgame, so figure out that one.

I think Wisconsin is more battle ready here. Michigan State lost two games against quality opponents on the road this year (Notre Dame and Nebraska), struggled against Ohio State in Columbus, and then handled Iowa and Northwestern away from East Lansing. But the Badgers have the big game experience.

Wisconsin 34 Michigan State 21
ATS – Wisconsin
SU – Wisconsin

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP: Georgia vs. LSU -13.5:

Georgia somehow won their tenth straight ballgame last weekend against Georgia Tech but still fell in the BCS standings, while we all know LSU is sitting pretty no matter what they do.

With that in mind, do they come out and erase all doubt, or do they come out flat knowing that their bad is still probably good enough to beat Georgia, and that they’re still going to New Orleans?

No matter which LSU team shows up, Georgia should be able to stay in this one. They’re allowing a little under 100 yards rushing for the season, so they should be able to stifle the LSU offense as long as they don’t see the field too often.

LSU 28 Georgia 17
ATS – Georgia
SU – LSU

Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State -3.5:

Oklahoma State is the better team here. They have a better offense, a more opportunistic defense, a healthier squad, they’re better than Oklahoma…but we all know this one is mental.

The Cowboys own a 16-82-7 all-time record against Oklahoma, and haven’t won a game in this series since 2002 despite being favorable with Oklahoma the past four or five years.

The Cowboys are going for their first Big 12 title (they never even won an outright Big 8 title)…and while this might be foolish, this Oklahoma team has struggled with the injuries and an average defense.

Oklahoma State 41 Oklahoma 34
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Texas @ Baylor -2.5:

This game starts and ends with Robert Griffin III. The guy is the most complete player Texas will see this year, ranking sixth in the country in passing and tying Brandon Weeden with 34 touchdown passes on the year. He can throw every route, has one of the best deep balls you’ll ever see, and doesn’t get rattled.

Then if you somehow stop him through the air, he’ll run it on you, rushing for 612 yards (counting sacks) and 7 touchdowns on the ground this year. Simply put, contain Griffin? No chance. You have to stop everyone else, mostly running back Terrence Ganaway, who only had 160 combined rushing yards in their losses to Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Griffin is damn good, but he can’t do it all by himself.

On offense, Texas is going to have its best game in weeks. Lucky for them, Baylor should give them every opportunity to get healthy on the ground, giving up 198 yards per game. Only three teams failed to reach 150 yards rushing against Baylor (Kansas State – 83, Texas A&M – 50, and Oklahoma – 131), but those three teams combined for 1,261 passing yards on a Baylor pass defense that ranks 107th in the country.

Five teams were able to rush for 250 on them (Stephen F. Austin – 266, Rice – 306, Iowa State – 395, Missouri – 280, Texas Tech – 360). Give the ball to Malcolm Brown, Joe Bergeron (if healthy), Jeremy Hills, Ramonce Taylor…whoever you want to, just run the ball, and run it often.

Baylor hasn’t beaten Texas in Waco since 1997, and even though the Texas defense is playing as well as any unit in the country, I’m a little worried about the possibility of getting into a shoot-out with the Bears here. But, as this season has shown, give this defense even a little bit of offense and the defense will take it from there.

Texas 31 Baylor 27
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for drinks on the Riverwalk.

The Week That Will Be (Thanksgiving 2011)

2011-11-22T23:55:00.000-06:00

Last Week: 5-1 ATS 2-4 SU
For the Year: 39-33 (.542) ($210) ATS 46-26 (.639) SU

We learned last week that Arkansas plays with more footballs than everyone else, as six receivers had at least 3 catches and three running backs had at least 10 carries in a blowout win over Mississippi State.

…we learned that USC is an inexplicable blowout loss to Arizona State away from having deep, deep regret over their post-season ban this year. Take away that loss and the ban, and USC is perhaps a win over UCLA and a win at home in the Pac-12 Championship from going to the BCS National Championship game. They would certainly be in the argument with Alabama. Which is, of course, to say if I was Tom Brady…

…we learned that what a difference a year makes in Ann Arbor. After holding Nebraska to a season-low in total yards, Michigan now ranks in the top 15 in total defense and scoring defense. If Denard Robinson can improve on an inconsistent junior season, you have to think Michigan is a good candidate for the national title next season that might fly under some people’s radar.

…we learned that Baylor can actually beat Oklahoma, after Robert Griffin III led them on six touchdown drives in the last three quarters, three of which took less than a minute. Griffin’s 562 total yards are at least worth an invite to New York for the Heisman ceremony.

…we learned that Oklahoma State will never win the national championship. If they don’t win it this year, with Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon playing at a ridiculous level, with a running game that is a nice complement, and a defense that leads the nation in takeaways, they’ll never win it. Championship programs don’t fall to Iowa State, no matter where the game is or what the circumstances are. They had one game to focus on before a de facto title game semi-final and blew it.

…and finally, we learned that 18 points in two weeks will drive a fan of a college football team very, very crazy.

Anyhow…

It is that time again, the time of year where we all gather around and make small talk about how it is the holiday season already even though we all just lived through the hottest hell of a Summer that man can endure, or perhaps your cousin from Pennsylvania has somehow convinced himself that ESPN, and The Longhorn Network hoodwinked Penn State into firing Joe Paterno in order to cover-up that whole conspiracy about 1969 and you sit there with failed smile nodding your head because the time it would take to refute this argument would be better spent putting him back on the next flight to Pittsburgh.

It is also the time that we give thanks, and for that reason, I present to you what I am thankful for this holiday season…

To Tim Tebow, thanks for the food on my plate this Thursday, for ridding us of the Aggies, for lowering the price of gas by 10 cents this week, for my beautiful wife, for killing and presiding over the funeral of Osama bin Laden, and for most of all, being relevant again so the Tim Tebow Joke Series has more legs.

To Penn State school officials, thanks for being unethical buffoons (via The University of Miami and Ohio State University).

To David Stern, thanks for allowing the Dallas Mavericks to be all-time NBA Champions.

To Christine Michael, thanks for this ringing endorsement of Texas A&M University: "I want to go to A&M," Andrew Michael (a Junior recruit) said. "It would be cool but he wants me to be in a better place than him. Like he wants me to be at LSU or something like that."

To Gary Pinkel, thanks for teaching the school kids of America how NOT to recite the Alphabet.

To Lee Corso, thanks for being that crazy uncle that might say anything at anytime.

To Michael Vick, thanks for having a low pain threshold so Vince Young could win another game as a quarterback.

To Austin Beer Works, thanks for the outstanding brew.

To Urban Meyer, thanks for the one year hiatus (via @UrbanMeyer’sHeart)

To T-Baby, thanks for letting us know it is cold in the D. We were not aware.

To Time Warner Cable and The Longhorn Network, thanks for absolutely nothing.

To the readers at Friday Night Tailgates, thanks for taking the time to read this column each and every week.

To Texas A&M, thanks for humping it, for your ridiculous haircuts, for having someone stand with a chalkboard at all times showing the score to Reveille, drawing your swords on SMU cheerleaders, for Coach Fran’s newsletter, for non-sanctioned bonfires, for Dave South, for acting like you care about women’s basketball, for your refusal to have female cheerleaders, for Yell Leaders for that matter, for Mike McKinney, for “can you help me with this?”, for proudly being in the 98th percentile, for maroon carrots, for athletic directors that write “tu” in e-mails, for your undefeated record at half-time, for calling a tradition “elephant walk”, for hissing, for Hullabaloo Caneck Caneck, for having the courage to Whoop, for your jars of special sauce, for Aggie Yell Leaders singing in the car and putting the video on the Internet…and for running to a conference that kicks your ass every time you play them. Goodbye.

To Emanuel Acho and Fozzy Whitaker, thanks for not only your notable contributions on the field, but for the outstanding contributions off the field. We are proud to have you in the Longhorn nation and wish you well in your future endeavors.

To Nolan Brewster, thanks for your contributions to the program. Your dad made his mark on this program, and we know that you will follow in his footsteps closely.

To Blaine Irby, thanks for your heart and determination. We can’t tell you how proud we were when we heard you were coming back, how proud we were when we saw you back, and how emotions nearly boiled over when you scored a touchdown in your final home game. That determination will get you very far in life.

To Christian Scott, thanks for coming back from a personal setback to make a strong contribution on the field.

To Justin Tucker, thanks for your diversity and for being such a strong contributor to this team for the past few years. You were the team MVP several times, and you will be missed next year.

To Blake Gideon, Cody Johnson, Kheeston Randall and Keenan Robinson, thanks for being a part of some very notable teams, and for several years of contributions.

To Tray Allen, Jamison Berryhill, Mark Buchanan, Ahmard Howard and David Snow , thanks for sticking with it. You guys were never the guys on the front of the program, but you stuck with it and contributed where you could without taking the easy path elsewhere.

To Anthony D’Addeo, John Paul Floyd, Luciano Martinez, Patrick McNamara, John Osborn, Christian Randolph, Sam Walker, Trey Wier, Nick Zajicek, Alex Zumberge, thanks for the thankless job of being a walk-on at the University of Texas. You know you are pretty much guaranteed zero playing time when you set out on this path, yet you sacrifice your health and time each and every week in order to make this program the best in the country.

On to the games...

Notre Dame @ Stanford -6.5:

Notre Dame has played well against the pass (even holding Matt Barkley to 224 yards), but seeing them struggle against Boston College last week, in addition to their troubles on the road this season (Michigan – L, Pitt- Close W, Purdue – W, Wake Forest – Close W), I think Stanford gets back on track here.

Stanford 31 Notre Dame 24
ATS – Stanford
SU – Stanford

Alabama -21 @ Auburn:

Auburn held it together the first couple of weeks of the season, but they’ve fallen apart lately, losing by 35 to LSU, 38 to Georgia and only leading Samford by 8 going to the fourth quarter last week. Alabama should be focused on winning convincingly and then letting the dominoes fall on them going to the BCS Championship game…

But this series is always close. Look at this point differential the past 10 meetings: (1, 5, 36, 7, 7, 10, 8, 5, 10, 24). Alabama wins, but Auburn sticks around for a while.

Alabama 34 Auburn 17
ATS – Auburn
SU – Alabama

Ohio State @ Michigan -7.5:

It has been 2,922 days since Michigan beat Ohio State in football. The big musical hit was Outkast’s “Hey Ya”, Steve Bartman had just ruined the Cubs title hopes, LeBron James was a rookie for the Cleveland Cavaliers, Gmail was months away from being introduced…and Facebook was weeks away.

And with the news that Urban Meyer is on the way, Michigan had better do it this year.

Michigan 20 Ohio State 16
ATS – Ohio State
SU – Michigan

Arkansas @ LSU -13:

Oh what an interesting game. If Arkansas wins, the tidal wave of chaos that will engulf college football will be delicious…if LSU wins, we’re likely looking at LSU/Alabama once again.
Arkansas has actually won 3 out of 4 in this series, including a 31-23 win last year. They feature a high-powered offense that has scored 40 points three straight games, but they must find success against a LSU defense that has given up more than 11 points in a game since September.

This is always a great game, and I don’t see it being any different this year. LSU just has a monster of a defense, and it will come up big when needed.

LSU 28 Arkansas 24
ATS – Arkansas
SU – LSU

Texas Tech vs. Baylor -12.5:

Baylor hasn’t beaten Texas Tech since 1995, but then again they had never beaten Oklahoma, so perhaps it is their week. Tech appears to have given up on the season, and players are dropping like flies…but Baylor’s defense still has its troubles.

Baylor 44 Texas Tech 34
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Baylor

Texas @ Texas A&M -7.5:

Last meeting, Texas offense sucks, Texas defense good, Texas A&M offense good, Texas A&M defense sucks, Texas A&M dreadful in the second half of games…that about covers it, right?

The Texas defense that held Collin Klein to 4 rushing yards last week might catch a break with Cyrus Gray possibly being sidelined….Gray last year ran for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Longhorns….or is it Gray receiving a break?

How do you beat the A&M offense? Force turnovers. A&M struggled the most against Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, mostly because of Ryan Tannehill’s 6 combined interceptions in those games. They also had two fumbles in a loss against Missouri.

So you’ve forced turnovers, but can Texas convert those into points? Obviously the health of Malcolm Brown, Joe Bergeron and Jaxon Shipley factor into that. If they are healthy, then Texas can run on an A&M team that gave up 284 yards rushing to Missouri….if those guys are “limited” again, then they won’t be able to run on a team that only gave up 2.5 ypc to Kansas State, 3.17 to Oklahoma, 2.37 to Arkansas and 1.31 to Oklahoma State.

Sure, you can beat the Aggies through the air, as evidenced by them giving up 292 yards per game, but you are a better prognosticator than me if you see a Texas quarterback that will be able to exploit that.

And then it gets worse. The Aggies lead the country in sacks, averaging 3.73 a game, and they face a Texas offensive line that has shown little ability to protect the quarterback, ranking 80th in the country in sacks allowed at 2.20.

It is a broken record, but this team simply won’t get better until the quarterback position gets better. One of these guys shows something, and Texas can escape here with a win on the back of a defense and running game. Play like they did against KSU, Missouri and Oklahoma, and the Horns get blown out of the building.

Unfortunately, I think we know which is more likely.

Texas A&M 30 Texas 17
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – Texas A&M

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for post-holidays gym fees.

The Week That Will Be (11.19.2011)

2011-11-17T00:23:00.002-06:00

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 3-3 SU
For the Year: 34-32 (.515) ($140) ATS 44-22 (.667) SU

We learned last week that Boise State can have the all-time leader in wins at quarterback, can have the coach that everyone is the first to call, but sometimes it just comes down to whether or not you can make a kick.

…we learned that Aaron Murray might very well be the best quarterback in the SEC, while Gus Malzahn had better find a head coaching gig while the iron is still somewhat lukewarm...

…we learned that Stanford can water down the field, can let the grass grow for several days, but none of that works on Oregon’s speed. What exactly was the Cardinal working on when they had Andrew Luck still in the game during blowouts?

…we learned that Texas A&M is Sonny in The Road Goes on Forever. Life kicks ass during the first half of the song…not so much in the second half. Let’s just hope no lawmen get hurt.

…we learned that Oklahoma State’s defense is an easy mark, but if you watch them you’ll see why shutting out Texas Tech offensively isn’t that unusual. There were 55 solo tackles for OSU in that game, meaning that Tech had to drive the field most of the day, which they couldn’t do. The bend-but-don’t-break defense can work…if you don’t break.

…and finally, we learned that Ron McElvey was a play away from getting in at running back for Texas on Saturday.

Anyhow…

With three regular season games left to be played this season, most of the pre-season possibilities are still in play.

There is the 9-3 record that most of us believed might be the high water mark for a team that struggled to win five games all of last season, and still leaves that 10 win season that we all used to “meh” like crazy in reach. There is the 8-4 mark that Vegas itself thought we would reach this season, a very solid stepping stone season after a disastrous 2010 campaign with a respectable bowl berth and promise of a return to prominence next season.

There is the 7-5 mark that a few of us might have seen coming, with limited knowledge of the personnel on offense, a mostly-new secondary and a quarterback that struggled last season returning as the starter. And then there is the 6-6 record that a lot of us feared, one that showed that last season wasn’t just a fluke, that there is a system-wide problem here that could not be flushed out in the matter of one season.

Encouragement or disappointment. It could go either way.

Left on the schedule is a Kansas State squad that has been very solid this year, and is a program that has given Texas fits even when it was near the bottom of the Big 12 conference. There is the possible last meeting with Texas A&M, on the road in a hostile environment where eternal bragging rights could be on the line. Then there is an improved Baylor team that features a quarterback who can take over games…as we saw at DKR last season.

Which way will it go?

Lost in the midst of the turbulence of this season is the fact that this ranks right up there with Mack’s best coaching jobs at Texas….no, there isn’t a signature win, but to be sitting here at 6-3 in mid-November with a duo of quarterbacks that have as many touchdown passes as a quarterback who last played two months ago (Garrett Gilbert), and two wide receivers (John Harris and Jaxson Shipley) is truly remarkable.

Gone is the quit that last season’s team had. This defense has carried this offense all season, but hasn’t used the excuse of poor field position or fatigue. It has done its job without complaint and done it very well.

Sure, there are those that will fault Mack for is a recruiting philosophy that forced a true freshman into starting duty in the first place, and that would be completely fair, but we have already seen that change this season as prize recruit Connor Brewer will be joined by Tatum quarterback Jalen Overstreet next year on the 40 acres.

What do we need to see these last three games? We need to start seeing signs that David Ash is the man. Yes, all together now, he’s just a true freshman thus we can’t expect much from him, but at some point that has to stop being an excuse. We are 9 games into the season, and if you are a believer in the old adage, there aren’t any freshmen at this point of the season.

We saw the emotion after the long run against Texas Tech, we’ve heard the numerous practice reports on the Interwebz that place the guy somewhere in the middle of Tim Tebow and Joe Montana, we’ve heard that his teammates react to his leadership, but it is time to start to see glimpses that this guy can be the next one in a lineage of Vince Young and Colt McCoy, and that he’s not just a placeholder until the next great one comes along.

Football is a funny game in that if he completes even one or two of those passes against Missouri he is looked at very differently, and Texas probably wins the game, but the fact of the matter is that they were not completed. Plenty of freshmen or redshirt freshmen shine every season…we need to see glimpses of that from Ash to have a realistic shot at finishing this three game stretch with a winning record. The opportunity is there…all three of these teams have been torched through the air this season (KSU 117th in pass defense, A&M 119, Baylor 81)…show us.

This team entered this season with no identity, then it was the team with the dual quarterbacks, then it was the power rushing team, well now, if the running backs continue to be out or hindered, needs to be David Ash’s team. It needs to be his huddle, it needs to be his game plan, it needs to be his arm that wins us these games.

Perhaps he isn’t good enough right now to win them. But give him the opportunity and the game plan to be successful. If the season is going to ride on him, let’s get behind him, starting this Saturday evening.

On to the games...

Missississipi State @ Arkansas -13:
Arkansas is averaging 45 points per game in Fayetteville this season, but could be stymied by a Mississippi State defense that is only giving up 17 points per game in their last 8 ballgames…but haven’t faced nearly as potent of an offense as Arkansas in that stretch.

Arkansas 41 Mississippi State 17
ATS – Arkansas
SU – Arkansas

USC @ Oregon -14.5:

Oregon still has a shot at the national championship game, while USC is probably looking at this like their bowl game as they are ineligible for post-season play.

The health of Robert Woods is in question here, which is unfortunate because USC might need all the offense they can get. They have given up 100 points in their last two meetings with Oregon, and while their defense has been better this season, it still has had its lapses.

Oregon wins here, but Matt Barkley manages to keep it close.

Oregon 41 USC 34
ATS – USC
SU – Oregon

Nebraska @ Michigan -3.5:

Nebraska’s defense has been inconsistent, and doesn’t figure to get better against a Michigan team that has been prolific in Ann Arbor. Denard Robinson has to be better (13 interceptions on the year), and while he’s nursing a sore wrist, Michigan should get the victory here.

Michigan 31 Nebraska 23
ATS – Michigan
SU – Michigan

Oklahoma -15 @ Baylor:

For all the talk about Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, it is Baylor that has the best offensive statistics in the conference, averaging 568 yards per game. Baylor has never beaten Oklahoma in Big 12 play, and they don’t figure to here, but you have to think they can move the ball against a defense that gave up 527 yards to Texas A&M and 572 against Texas Tech.

Oklahoma wants the blowout victory, but it won’t happen here. Robert Griffin will give them too much trouble.

Oklahoma 48 Baylor 38
ATS – Baylor
SU – Oklahoma

Oklahoma State -25 @ Iowa State:

Win this one, and Oklahoma State has to only win against Oklahoma and they’ll be playing for a national championship. No pressure. Iowa State is riding a modest two game winning streak, but they don’t figure to give OSU much of a battle here.

Oklahoma State 52 Iowa State 16
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Kansas State @ Texas -9:

Let’s start on the easier side of the ball. Kansas State does what you think a Bill Snyder coached Kansas State team does: they run the ball, and they use the quarterback to run the football. Collin Klein is a 6’5” 226 lb. (Vince Young is 6’5” 232 lb for reference) former wide receiver who got his first start against Texas last year.

If you remember correctly, that is the game where they damn near took the opening kickoff back on us, and then scored a couple of plays later. Two guys touched the ball all night (Klein and now Miami Dolphins running back Daniel Thomas), no wide receiver recorded a reception all night, but yet the Wildcats still managed to put 39 points on the board…and then our coaching staff had the audacity to say that Klein starting threw them off…perhaps there is a reason Florida is 5-5 this season.

Klein is 26th in the country in rushing, and first in touchdowns with 24. Ricky Williams has the record with 27 rushing touchdowns in a season. He’ll run left, and he’ll run right, and then he’ll run up the middle, and occasionally they’ll hand it to the running back John Hubert. It’s the “See Tebow, Tackle Tebow” defense. Manny Diaz should be better prepared for it than his predecessor, but everyone should have been prepared for it this season and he’s beaten his opponent more often than not. The best to contain Klein this year? The Missouri team that just shut down our offense, held him to 45 yards on 24 carries (Kansas was the only other team to hold him under 100 this year, and that had nothing to do with Kansas and their defense).

Contain Klein and you roll KSU. But good luck with that.

On offense, who the hell knows? We don’t even know who will be playing in the game long after the opening kickoff, so your guess is as good as mine. The good news is that this isn’t the Bob Stoops/Phil Bennett defenses of old, this is a defense that allowed 690 yards to Oklahoma, 575 to Oklahoma State, 482 to Texas A&M and 580 to Texas Tech. The bad news is that those teams have a lot more weapons on offense than we do.

If you’re going to tell me that Brown, Bergeron and Shipley play, I say that Texas has a very good chance of coming out on top. If the running backs play, I think A&M last week showed you can run on KSU. If none of them play…well, baseball scores it is.

Maybe I’m just a hopeless optimist, but you’ve got to think that it will be better than last week, no matter who is playing. Texas grinds one out here.

Texas 24 Kansas State 21
ATS – Kansas State
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Missouri’s We Need a New Field fund.

The Week That Will Be (11.12.2011)

2011-11-09T22:44:00.002-06:00

Last Week: 3-3 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 32-28 (.533) ($80) ATS 41-19 (.683) SU

We learned last week that Oregon can throw for less than 170 yards, commit 9 penalties, can convert less than half of their third down conversions but can still beat a quality opponent on the road by 17…

…we learned that South Carolina is lost without Marcus Lattimore, committing four turnovers in the second half while barely managing 200 yards of offense…

…we learned that “The Game of the Century” wasn’t even “The Game That Started at 7:00 PM Central on 11/5/2011” as Alabama and LSU managed to set back offensive football about 30 years. Great theater, but I can’t handle four missed field goals, two quarterbacks on one team throwing for less than 100 yards combined and said quarterback running the wrong way on an option play…

…we learned that Oklahoma State can give up 507 offensive yards and improve upon their national ranking. Flashy stats are nice, but ask Oregon what happens when flashy offense meets tough defense…

…we learned that the Aggies can win in Norman…if you discount the third quarter. Texas A&M tried a new strategy of coming from behind in the second half, but failed miserably as Oklahoma scored on their first three drives of the half…

…and finally, we learned that the wishbone can’t be far behind at Texas, who rushed for 400 plus yards in two straight games for the first time since 1977.

Last week’s LSU/Alabama game was seen as a de facto National Championship Semi-Final, and while LSU is certainly deserving, I think we can all agree that we hope that one of the participants in the closest thing we have to a national championship game is better than what they showed on Saturday night. But can LSU trip up along the line? Let’s take a look at the BCS Championship game contenders…

LSU
Western Kentucky, @ Ole Miss, Arkansas, SEC Championship

We’ll see if LSU can get past that obvious trap game of Western Kentucky. Arkansas might provide a challenge, but with the game in Baton Rouge you have to like LSU’s chances. And Georgia or South Carolina don’t provide much of a challenge in Atlanta. Pencil in LSU for New Orleans…which drives me nuts. They seem to rise to the occasion when the game is in the Crescent City, no?

Oklahoma State
@ Texas Tech, @ Iowa State, Oklahoma

Save another spoil job by Texas Tech in Lubbock this weekend, Oklahoma State will go into Bedlam with a “win and go to the national championship” shot…and they haven’t defeated Oklahoma since 2002. That is despite being favored the last two years (47-41 in 2010 and 27-0 in 2009). In 2008 OSU was thought to be just as good as Oklahoma and lost 61-41. Get over that mental hurdle and you’re in…but that is like saying buy Alessandra Ambrosio a drink and you have a chance. It’s going to take a lot of work to get over that.

Alabama
@ Mississippi State, Georgia Southern, @ Auburn

Alabama has the advantage of not having to go to the SEC Championship game, but should they survive the Iron Bowl, they’ll have to ward off other one loss teams (or Boise State) and get past the stigma of a rematch in the title game…no matter how that first game went. If everyone else collapses, I can see it, but Alabama has an uphill climb here.

Stanford & Oregon
Oregon, California, Notre Dame; @ Stanford, USC, Oregon State

I’ll go ahead and put these two together since they are about in the same boat. Stanford wins out and OSU falls and they are in. Oregon might have a tougher lobbying job, but you have to like their chances. Notre Dame could be very tough for Stanford, while USC is playing very well right now, and either team could see them again in the Pac-12 championship game. It wouldn’t surprise me if both of these teams drop a game (yes, one of them has to lose this weekend).

Boise State
TCU, @ San Diego State, Wyoming, New Mexico

Oh, Boise is like the SEC and schedules their out of conference patsies at the end of the year…oh wait, that is their conference? Hmm. TCU and San Diego State can beat Boise…Wyoming and New Mexico have about as much chance as Rick Perry does winning the Republican Primary. Still, chances are that Boise will finish undefeated…and play Alabama in the Sugar Bowl or Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

Oklahoma; Arkansas
@ Baylor, Iowa State, @ Oklahoma State; Tennessee, Mississippi State, @ LSU

Oklahoma’s chances looked a lot better before Alabama only dropped to #3 last week. They basically need to win out, have Stanford and Oregon both drop one, beg that Alabama doesn’t get the rematch vote and beg that Boise State plays late at night and nobody notices that they finish undefeated. There is still a chance…but they need a lot of help. But let’s not kid ourselves, this is Oklahoma, these things happen for them. Arkansas has an interesting road…win out and they are in the SEC Championship game, win that….and does anyone keep them out of New Orleans? Sure, they got manhandled by Alabama, but they would have beaten #1 LSU and a Top 12 Georgia or South Carolina team…they would certainly have as good of an argument as any of these other teams mentioned.

So who makes it? Well I’ve offered my prediction twice this year only to have one of the teams lose that very week. I’ll abstain.

On to the games...

TCU @ Boise State -15.5:

Defense is a TCU mainstay, but this year that hasn’t been the case. The Horned Frogs rank only 38th in the country in total defense and gave up 1,018 yards in their two losses to Baylor and SMU. Boise comes into this one a little banged up, and coming off very lackluster wins against Air Force and UNLV.

Boise’s weak spot in those games was the rushing defense, and if there is one thing that TCU does well this year it is run the football. Boise wins…but close well into the fourth quarter.

Boise State 34 TCU 24
ATS – TCU
SU – Boise State

Auburn @ Georgia -12.5:

Well, I originally had the Penn State/Nebraska game in this slot, but with Wednesday night’s events it is apparent that there are far more serious concerns in State College than football.

Georgia has had an interesting strategy this season, dropping their first two games to drop off the national radar before winning their last seven. They’ve done it with defense, only giving up 20 points twice in that span.

Auburn has struggled against the top teams, but have held their own against the next tier. I think they stay in this one.

Georgia 28 Auburn 24
ATS – Auburn
SU – Georgia

Oregon @ Stanford -3.5:

The winner of this game likely has the inside lane to New Orleans should Oklahoma State fall before season’s end, and if it is anything like Oregon’s 52-31 win last year in Eugene, it should be entertaining (if you like scoring with your football games).

With Stanford’s problem with injuries (Two of Andrew Luck’s top four targets are out), their lack of team speed and the fact that Stanford has yet to play an opponent of this caliber yet, I see Oregon winning this one with a little comfort.

Oregon 37 Stanford 28
ATS – Oregon
SU – Oregon

Texas A&M -5 @ Kansas State:

Both of these teams have lost two games in a row…kind of expected for Kansas State, disastrous for Texas A&M. This week is a slightly better match-up for the Aggies, as Kansas State struggles to defend the pass while struggling to throw the ball downfield themselves.

I will probably regret this, but looking at this match-up, this is a game the Aggies should win and win comfortably. If they haven’t given up on the season, that is.

Texas A&M 31 Kansas State 24
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – Texas A&M

Oklahoma State -17 @ Texas Tech:

The over/under on this game is 78.5 points…which is a little high based on recent history (51 total points in 2010; 41 in 2009). This one looks to be higher scoring, as Texas Tech hasn’t given up less than 34 points since Week 2 against New Mexico, while Oklahoma State hasn’t given up less than 24 points since….Week 2 against Arizona.

You also have to wonder about the pressure mounting on the Cowboys…they are three victories (and will likely be favored in all three) from the national championship game…can they go into a historical tough place to play in the Big 12 and win?

Oklahoma State 42 Texas Tech 31
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Oklahoma State

Texas -1.5 @ Missouri:

Sure, Missouri is 4-5, but the teams that have beat them have a combined record of 35-9 on the season…and two of those teams have beaten Texas as well.

Missouri likes to run the football, averaging 244 yards per game on the ground this season (just behind Texas and their 246), but can also pass the ball as well, throwing for 291 against Oklahoma and 319 against Arizona State earlier this season. For the first time this season, Texas will face a mobile quarterback, as first-year starter James Franklin has rushed for a gross of 735 yards this year. Franklin has been efficient as well, combining 6 of his 7 interceptions into three games, losses to Oklahoma State and Kansas State and a win over Iowa State.

On defense, the Tigers have a nice front, but they struggle. They gave up 686 yards to Baylor, 500 to Texas A&M, 533 to Oklahoma State, 592 to Oklahoma and 492 to Arizona State. The problem being, of course, that most, if not all, of those teams have a better offense than Texas.

That Texas offense is on a roll, rushing for 880 yards the last two games while only giving up 28 rushing yards. That is video game quality right there.

Texas is going to have to be better here. While the running game is fun, at some point David Ash is going to have to make a play with his arm, and that very well might be this game against a Missouri offense that can get you in shootouts.

With an early start time that should take the crowd out of the game, and a running game that can control the clock better than the opposition, Texas comes out on top here…but it might get dicey.

Texas 27 Missouri 24
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for new SEC! t-shirts.

The Week That Will Be (11.05.2011)

2011-11-03T22:59:00.000-05:00

Last Week: 4-2 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 29-25 (.537) ($110) ATS 36-18 (.667) SU

We learned last week that a game with 186 passing yards between the two teams (Michigan State/Nebraska) is about as exciting as it sounds, and we didn’t even have Grantland Rice around to spice it up...

…we learned that Clemson is Clemson and the ACC is the ACC…Texas Tech would be a nice fit if realignment should choose…

…we learned that Andrew Luck is fallible, but not by USC, and that the officiating crew in this game pulled a nice double duty as the home plate umpire in Game Seven of the World Series…

…we learned that Baylor is not the nation’s leader in yardage efficiency as the Bears actually out-gained Oklahoma State 622-599, but had only 3 points through three quarters. Yardage Efficiency is a complete made-up stat…I think. Don’t look that up.

…we learned that no, Toto, Kansas State is not in Kansas anymore as Oklahoma kicked their ass all the way to Saskatchewan (spelled it correctly on the first try, score). Oklahoma gained nearly as many yards as from Manhattan to Saskatchewan, 690 in all (In actuality Manhattan, KS to Saskatchewan is 2,299,868.67 yards).

…And finally, we learned that for at least one night, Texas can dominate a conference opponent once again.

Anyhow…

With Halloween over and Thanksgiving fast approaching, we here at The Week That Will Be want to take some time this week and help you make those holiday plans a little easier by giving you our annual Bowl Projections…

The Tired of Hearing About It Bowl – Conference Realignment vs. Conference Realignment

Screw it, we’re going intrasquad here, because honestly when has so much been made about so little? When the biggest move is Boise State joining the Big East, something is wrong here. Texas A&M was allowed to hold college football news hostage for the last three months when they’re going to have to fire yet another coach for pulling a Franchione here pretty soon. Missouri has the football tradition of Prairie View and they’ve dominated the headlines the last month. Just get it over with already.

The It’s Me, Not You Bowl – TCU vs. Kim Kardashian

TCU was a member of the Big East for almost a year—Kim Kardashian was married to Kris Humphries for 72 days…but TCU never actually played any games in the Big East, so these have to be about the equivalent, right? Kardashian’s deal with E! to televise her wedding might have been more than the Big East’s football television contract, especially when the networks notice that Houston, Air Force, SMU and Navy have been added to the roster.

Let’s just hope that TCU doesn’t run back to Reggie Bush. That might be awkward.

The Inevitable Bowl – Oklahoma vs. Kim Kardashian

Oklahoma looks like they had Kourtney and Khloe Kardashian playing in the secondary against Texas Tech…Texas Tech goes out, starts Bruce Jenner and Kendall Jenner at linebacker against Iowa State, gets reamed by an Iowa State team that couldn’t stay within 16 points of any other conference team, but yet Oklahoma moves up to 7th in the human polls and 5th in the computer polls because Kansas State’s magic finally ran out. They’ll likely win out since Oklahoma State urinates all over themselves at the mere sight of an OU logo…which will put them in the BCS Championship Game shall Stanford fall along the way somewhere.

And you know Kim Kardashian will be on with Barbara Walters and Diane Sawyer next week balling her eyes out, meanwhile she probably couldn’t even tell you her husband’s first name or which team he used to play basketball for when there was an NBA. She’ll get back with Reggie Bush, or start dating Cam Newton or somesuch and we’ll have to hear the dumb broad’s story again, which E! will gladly fork over $30 million to show her next wedding.

There has to be some Vegas casino taking prop bets on this. Someone check into it.

The Opposite of the Midas Touch Bowl – Will Muschamp vs. the cast of Boardwalk Empire

While this season of Boardwalk Empire is all about what happens when everything goes to the dumper, Will Muschamp is quickly finding out in Gainesville that yelling and screaming and cussing and chest bumping and getting a lot of views on YouTube doesn’t win football games, nor does half of your team getting kicked off the squad for (not even synthetic) marijuana possession or other assorted mischief. Muschamp will get a couple of years to install his system, of course, but there is already some rumbling going on in Florida, and Mack Brown’s voodoo doll might just work again.

The Let’s See How Many Times We Can Mention Kardashian Bowl – US Weekly vs. HornMafia
Last mention, I promise.

The Alamo Bowl – Texas vs. Arizona State

I figure Texas drops one more the rest of the way, setting up a rematch of the 2007 Holiday Bowl. Texas fans chant “Rudy” out of habit.

The Orange Bowl – Clemson vs. West Virginia

The nation is shocked that the Orange Bowl doesn’t sound like it will suck for the first time since Tom Osborne was coaching.

The Sugar Bowl – LSU vs. Boise State

LSU gets yet another home game while Boise completes an undefeated season with a trip to New Orleans…a week earlier than they wanted.

The Rose Bowl – Nebraska vs. Oregon

Nebraska tries to downplay their last trip to the Rose Bowl, a shellacking in the championship game against Miami, but then promptly get their ass handed to them by Oregon. Tom Osborne moves to get Pasadena banned from college football and changes conferences again.

The Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma State vs. Stanford

Stanford tries to replicate Miami’s 1987 Fiesta Bowl swagger by getting off the plane wearing….pocket protectors. Oklahoma State still loses.

The BCS National Championship Game – Alabama vs. Oklahoma

Pork rinds are at a premium in New Orleans this week as Oklahoma backs into yet another BCS Championship Game…and promptly gets their ass handed to them again.

On to the games...

Oregon -16.5 @ Washington:

It is the last game at Husky Stadium…at least this iteration of it before it undergoes a $250 million renovation, but don’t expect any heroics from the home team.

Washington has held serve with most on its schedule (thus the 6-2 record), but has given up 116 points to the two powers it has faced this year, Nebraska and Stanford. Don’t expect any less from an Oregon team that is averaging 526 yards per game.

Oregon 48 Washington 27
ATS – Oregon
SU – Oregon

South Carolina @ Arkansas -5:

South Carolina has been somewhat lackluster on offense, especially since the dismissal of Stephen Garcia, but their defense has been nails, only giving up 37 points in five games, albeit against Vanderbilt, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Tennessee. The Gamecocks boast the 3rd best pass defense in the country, but I think they’ll be out of their element here against an Arkansas team that has struggled somewhat, but should be looking forward to being home again.

Arkansas 31 South Carolina 17
ATS – Arkansas
SU – Arkansas

LSU @ Alabama -4.5:

This year’s version of the “Game of the Century” matches these two SEC powers, one of which leads the country in scoring defense at just under a touchdown a game, the other one that allows about 11.5 points per game.

So you know about the defenses…but Jarrett Lee at LSU was supposed to be an afterthought this year, but he leads the country in TD/INT ratio (13/1) and leads the SEC in passing efficiency. The Tigers also feature a pair of physical running backs in Spencer Ware and Michael Ford.

For Alabama, A.J. McCarron has been a Greg McElroy starter kit, throwing for 10 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions, and executing perfect handoffs to Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy.
This should be a close out throughout, but it just comes down to me that I trust Alabama’s skill players more than I trust LSU’s. Alabama’s only home loss since 2007 was a one-point loss to national champion Auburn last year, so it will be a feat for LSU to come in there and get a victory.

Alabama 24 LSU 17
ATS – Alabama
SU – Alabama

Kansas State @ Oklahoma State -21:

Oklahoma State’s offense gets all the accolades, and while their defense doesn’t have the prettiest numbers, it does lead the country in turnover margin at 2.38.

The key here is if the Cowboys can stop Kansas State’s running game and get their offense back out on the field.

The Cowboys seem to be on a mission this year, and although K-State could certainly run the ball and keep it close, in Stillwater I expect OSU to step up on both sides of the ball.

Oklahoma State 48 Kansas State 21
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Texas A&M @ Oklahoma -13.5:

The Aggies entered the season ranked among the Top 10 best teams in the country, but they enter Norman unranked with a record of 5-3 and staring at a .500 record with Kansas State next week. I don’t see the nation’s worst pass defense (giving up 318 yards per game) getting healthy against the nation’s second best pass offense (averaging 396 yards per game).

A&M won’t have to worry about blowing a second half lead this game, as they won’t be in it.

Oklahoma 45 Texas A&M 23
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Texas Tech @ Texas -14.5:

Let’s get two things out of the way quickly here: 1.) I don’t know how the hell Texas Tech beat Oklahoma looking at their other games this year; and 2.) Quit it with this notion that Texas Tech will be “angry” coming into DKR and looking to atone for last week’s blowout loss to Iowa State.

The former first: Tech doesn’t get “angry”, they get “drunk”, eat balls of bovines and then pass out in the yard of some frat house. They’re good for about one spoiler victory a year, but then they go back into their shell and meander through the rest of the season only to end it in a mid-tier bowl game, where they apparently get drunk the night before the game and then get blown out.

The latter next…In their season opener against Texas State, they were down at the half and gave up 256 rushing yards; against Nevada in Lubbock they needed a touchdown with :36 seconds left and gave up 562 offensive yards in the process; against Kansas they were down 20-0 almost immediately and gave up 478 yards to that team we saw last week; against Texas A&M they gave up 31 first half points; Kansas State put up 27 points in the second and third quarters; and finally, if you take away the one sack, three Iowa State rushers had 100 yards.

Tech is as dangerous as ever in the passing game, but their running game has been DOA since the injury to Eric Stephens…contain Seth Doege and you beat Tech, simple as that.

On offense, I would be disappointed if the Longhorns don’t run for 200 plus yards. Iowa State was able to hold on to the ball for more than 40 minutes last week (which Texas did against Kansas as well). Run the ball, control the clock and hit their receivers in the mouth. Tech has six turnovers in their last three games, so they like to give it to the wrong jersey, too.

This one could be dicey, but c’mon, does anyone expect Tech to show up for two road games?

Texas 31 Texas Tech 20
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for your date with Kim Kardashian. Oops.

The Week That Will Be (10.29.2011)

2011-10-26T23:55:00.002-05:00

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 3-3 SU
For the Year: 25-23 (.521) ($50) ATS 32-16 (.667) SU

We learned last week that we learned that instant replay does work in major sports (Wisconsin/Michigan State)…I’m talking to you, MLB.

…we learned that Stanford can run all over Washington like a LMFAO song, to the tune of 446 yards.

…we learned that Notre Dame = me and USC = my wife and our closet = Notre Dame Stadium.

…we learned that the Aggies were about as interested in playing Iowa State as Tony La Russa was in seeing Lance Lynn pitch for the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday night.

…we learned that Oklahoma State defenders might as well be waving the wheat at opposing running backs, but it doesn’t matter when you run 2 for 1 specials on the opposing defense.

And finally, we learned that 39 game home winning streaks are made to be broken.

Anyhow…

If it wasn’t for Texas…

The last Big 12 win for Texas at home?

You remember it. You probably remember it very well.

You might remember the bomb to James Kirkendoll in front of Section 1 for a touchdown. Perhaps you remember Jordan Shipley tip toeing down the sideline on the north end of the stadium. Then there was the bomb over the middle to Malcolm Williams for a 61 yard score. And finally, there was another score for Kirkendoll in the fourth quarter.

Then you certainly remember the dogpile by all the seniors at mid-field after the game…all except for one.

Colt McCoy took his own lap that night, Senior Night of course, glad-handing those that might have doubted him in the beginning, thanking those that came to love him in the end. He just came off a glistening performance of 396 yards passing, four touchdowns and only nine incompletions in 41 attempts. As he stopped to take a picture with the cheerleaders, with the crowd chanting Texas….Fight….…his favorite song rang over the PA system, George Strait’s Texas.

Unfortunately, in many ways that would be McCoy’s last hurrah. Texas won a Big 12 Championship Game where McCoy was on the ground more than he was making plays on it. And of course we all know the atrocity that occurred in Pasadena.

More than 700 days have passed since that cool November night, but the joyful aura that surrounded the stadium that evening was seemingly 1400 days ago.

Championship dreams turned to utter disgust in 2010, and while there is more promise in 2011, one must consider the fact that last year’s team sat right here with the same record before losing five out of its final six games, with another twenty-plus underdog opponent coming to Austin that nobody outside of that opposing city thought that they could ever lose to.

2009 was an eternity ago in more ways than one. But if you really want to show the progress that hasn’t been evident around here since the first half against Iowa State earlier this year, pound the hell out of Kansas.

With all due respect to Turner Gill and his squad, the Longhorns are served a meaty dish on their plate this week after getting pushed around for two weeks by teams that were simply better than they were.

Do what good teams do and run this team into the ground.

This Kansas squad has yet to give up less than 42 points to a FBS opponent, including a Northern Illinois squad that would love to have the talent that we have on our roster. Kansas State and Texas Tech would probably love to have the talent that is on our roster as well.

It is time for youth to stop serving as an excuse and start serving as a threat.

Throttle the opponent before you on Saturday, and while it won’t cause any shockwaves throughout the conference, it will at least service notice that you can take care of the business that is before you…something that wasn’t done last season.

Then maybe, just maybe, we can start to envision a joyous aura returning to this stadium one day.

And that ridiculous streak will be no more.

On to the games...

Michigan State @ Nebraska -4:

The challenge in this one is how does Michigan State react to be the hunted instead of the hunter? They’ve ventured on the road twice this season, getting hammered by Notre Dame (31-13) and holding down Ohio State (10-7). Add to those two factors that this is the last of a gauntlet of emotional games (@ Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin), and you wonder how much they have left in the tank.

With each team playing into the other’s defensive strength (Michigan State can’t run but can pass, Nebraska can’t stop the run but can stop the pass; Michigan State’s defense is ranked second nationally), expect a low scoring game with MSU being the better team here.

Michigan State 20 Nebraska 16
ATS – Michigan State
SU – Michigan State

Clemson -3.5 @ Georgia Tech:

As a great man in movie lore once said, “it’s a trap.” How in the world does Clemson only enter this game as a little over a field goal favorite when Georgia Tech was defeated soundly by Miami last week? Tech averaged a pitiful 2.8 yards per carry and had only 211 total yards, meanwhile Clemson enters this game averaging 40 points per game?

Georgia Tech does have a good pass defense thus far (giving up only 170 yards per game through the air), but haven’t faced anyone like Clemson. There is always the potential to “pull a Clemson” here (especially with a defense that has given up 83 points in the last two games), but the Tigers should roll.

Clemson 41 Georgia Tech 31
ATS – Clemson
SU – Clemson

Stanford -7.5 @ USC:

There wasn’t much thought of USC staying in this one until last week’s victory over Notre Dame, but realistically there still shouldn’t be much talk. Yes, the Trojans earned that victory with 443 total yards, but Notre Dame didn’t help themselves with 3 turnovers.

Southern Cal is looking at the best offense they’ve faced all year as well as the best defense they’ve faced all year. That doesn’t bode well.

Stanford 41 USC 24
ATS – Stanford
SU – Stanford

Baylor @ Oklahoma State -14:

I want to like Baylor. Robert Griffin is a special, special player. But then I look at that defense that has given up at least 26 points to every FBS opponent they have faced this season, is giving up 425 yards per game, 33 points per game and couldn’t even force Texas A&M to punt, and I’m wondering how they give the ball enough to RGIII to win this game.

Baylor should be able to put some points up late, but Oklahoma State might go for 60.

Oklahoma State 52 Baylor 28
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Oklahoma -13.5 @ Kansas State:
This is not a good match-up for Kansas State. Sure, if the Oklahoma that dropped pass after pass comes into Manhattan and pulls that act again, or if On the Road Landry shows up they have a shot, but to this point, Kansas State has relied on a somewhat healthy running game, virtually nothing from the passing game, a stout run defense and timely turnovers. Those don’t last forever.

Robert Griffin threw for 346 yards but Baylor had 3 turnovers. Seth Doege at Texas Tech was about to throw for 446, but Tech turned it over 4 times and lost. Is this Kansas State defense opportunistic…or lucky?

Oklahoma isn’t as good as they were against Texas, but whatever warts they showed against Texas Tech, Kansas State doesn’t have the offense to exploit them.

Oklahoma 37 Kansas State 17
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Kansas @ Texas -28:

I don’t want to beat a dead horse here, and others on this site have told you similar things, but I really don’t think it can be over stated how bad this Kansas defense has been this year.

You know they are allowing opponents half a hundred points per game, you know they are giving up 550 yards per game (to put that in perspective, 550 yards on offense would rank you second in the country in total offense; 50 points per game would lead FBS). They’ve also allowed two opponents, Georgia Tech and Kansas State, to nearly double their season average in points per game.

It’s like they give you a menu at the beginning of the game and ask whether you would like to run all day or pass all day, or splurge and do both.

Their offense isn’t terrible. Quarterback Jordan Webb is 16th in the country in passing efficiency, but you have to wonder if that is because teams like Oklahoma State took out their starters in the second quarter and didn’t really care if Jordan Webb marched his team up and down the field because they could get this game over faster.

On a team full of freshmen and sophomores, one that hasn’t experienced a win in nearly a full month, you have to hammer them and gain confidence going into the second half of the season.

Show us what you got.

Texas 48 Kansas 13
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for souvenir coal in West Virginia.

The Week That Will Be (10.22.2011)

2011-10-19T23:56:00.000-05:00

Last Week: 4-2 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 23-19 (.548) ($170) ATS 29-13 (.690) SU

Last week we learned that…well we didn’t learn much about LSU that we didn’t already know. They like to run the ball (260 yards), don’t like to pass the ball (123 yards), but like it even less when you do either (339 total offensive yards for Tennessee).

…we learned that Michigan State’s defense is for real, holding Denard Robinson to 165 total yards and Michigan to a total of 250 yards as a team.

…we learned that you can take LaMichael James and Darron Thomas out of the game, but you can’t take Oregon’s offense away.

…we learned that despite being outgained by nearly 250 yards, Kansas State wins ballgames by running the football (193 yards) and not turning the ball over (0 turnovers to Texas Tech’s 4).

…we learned that it is hard to win ballgames, on the other hand, when you give up 415 yards passing, 6 touchdowns, 35 first downs and don’t force the opponent to punt the football all day. RGIII or not, Baylor isn’t going to improve upon the Texas Bowl until they turn that around.

…and finally, we learned that you can cut Brandon Weeden’s passing yards in half from one year to another, but it doesn’t matter if you allow the back-up running back to rush for 140 yards and you only average 2.2 YPA on your side of the football. A much better performance than last week, but moral victories aren’t counted on the Freddie Steinmark scoreboard.

Anyhow…

Believe it or not we are now halfway through the season so it is time to do our annual mid-season awards, for which you get no trophy, but you might get a snarky comment or two.

The Chaps Girl Award (MVP): Not only is there not a clear winner this year, but you might have trouble narrowing down a list of who gets to go to New York and dodge large piles of trash on the sidewalks and gets to pay $14 for a cocktail. You have great candidates like Robert Griffin III, Kellen Moore, Trent Richardson and Landry Jones, but to me the winner is Andrew Luck. Stanford is winning games by an average of 26 points, haven’t scored less than 37 points and don’t have another marquee player on that offense.

The Herschel Walker Award (Freshman of the Year): It isn’t a great year for freshmen in college football. We could have talked about De’Anthony Thomas for Oregon or Isaiah Crowell at Georgia, but we’re homers so we’re going to pick Jaxon Shipley. He’s trailed off as of late, but the kid looks just as good as his brother did in his upperclassman years. And he’ll only get better.

The Eric Taylor Award (Coach of the Year): Gulp. Okay, we’ll tell you how good Clemson and Dabo Swinney has looked thus far this year, but those impressive wins over Auburn, Florida State and Virginia Tech look pretty meh right now. Bill Snyder at Kansas State has done a great job, but would we really be surprised if they finish at 8-4? No, it is with great apprehension that we go with Les Miles, who might be that “special” kid in the cafeteria, but he’s beaten Oregon, West Virginia and Mississippi State when that was still an impressive thing to do. The only thing between LSU and an undefeated schedule is a road trip to Tuscaloosa in early November.

The Rich Kotite Award (Worst Coach of the Year): Look no further than Jumbo Fisher at Florida State, who did lose his quarterback against Oklahoma, but what is a Top 5 pre-season team doing losing to Wake Forest?

The Better Go To Walgreens Award (Surprise of the Year): See above. Florida State losing to Wake Forest was a setback, but then again, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised…the Seminoles have now lost 4 out of 6 to Wake.

The (Insert Failed Sound From The Price is Right Here) (Disappointment of the Year): You have Ohio State and Mississippi State falling completely on their faces, but once again, we must look at pre-season champion Texas A&M, who sit at 4-2 with come from ahead losses to Oklahoma State and Arkansas. At least with their move to the SEC the Aggies won’t have to worry about high expectations.

The Betty Ford Award (Outstanding Achievement For Wasted Talent): The good news for others hoping to take this award home is that [b]Stephen Garcia appears to be out of chances at South Carolina. Like his other suspensions at South Carolina, Garcia’s latest this off-season didn’t cost him any games…he managed to work his way from the bench, threw 9 interceptions in 5 games, turned to the dark side again and was promptly kicked off the team.

The Les Miles Award (LSU’s Punter): I’m not even going to bother looking up the kid’s name, and the taunting call was BS, but still, you’re a punter, run into the endzone, put down the ball and go to the oxygen tank.

The Chris Rock Award (Most Cussing on the Sidelines): Will Muschamp had to apologize to the media this week for his antics on the sidelines during a 17-6 loss to Auburn earlier this month. Perhaps Muschamp should realize that is isn’t the official’s fault that his team is 4-3.

The Lock That Isn’t a Lock To Get to the National Championship Game: With the Honey Badger getting suspended and LSU running out a fast food contest winner every week at quarterback, give me Alabama and Wisconsin in New Orleans for the championship game. Where we go from there is anyone’s guess, but it might set a record for the number of fat white people in New Orleans at one time.

On to the games...

Wisconsin -7.5 @ Michigan State:

Tale of two ballgames here: (1) Russell Wilson has thrown 4 4th quarter passes all season…is Wisconsin prepared to face a quality opponent on the road? ; (2) Yes, we learned last week that Michigan State’s defense is for real, but they’ll have their biggest test yet this week.

Wisconsin’s offense gets all the accolades, but the defense is allowing a shade under 10 points per game. Michigan State’s offense is solid, but they’ve also struggled against mediocre defenses thus far.
The defense might help the Spartans for a while, but I think Wisconsin eventually wears them down due to the inability of Michigan State to move the football.

Wisconsin 31 Michigan State 17
ATS – Wisconsin
SU – Wisconsin

Washington @ Stanford -20.5:

Washington doesn’t do much great, but they are 5-1, with that one loss a 13 point loss to Nebraska in Lincoln. Stanford has been great, but this is their first opponent with much of a pulse. The Cardinal win, but Sarkisian keeps it close.

Stanford 41 Washington 27
ATS – Washington
SU – Stanford

USC @ Notre Dame -9.5:

USC can’t stop anybody, giving up 84 combined points to the state of Arizona and ranking 105th in the country in pass defense, but Notre Dame is getting a bit too much credit here for a four game winning streak where they have been outgained in two of those wins.

It has been 10 years since Notre Dame beat Southern California in South Bend. That will change this year, but not before the Trojans give them a scare (ahem).

Notre Dame 31 USC 28
ATS – USC
SU – Notre Dame

Texas A&M -20.5 @ Iowa State:

Since starting the season 3-0, Iowa State has been outscored 138-57 in three straight losses. It doesn’t get any better this week.

Texas A&M 51 Iowa State 17
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – Texas A&M

Oklahoma State -7 @ Missouri:

Two things here: (1) Oklahoma State is playing the last of a 4 out of 5 games on the road, with a start time of 11 AM…are they due for a letdown here? ; (2) Missouri’s best games this year are both losses, a valiant effort in Norman against Oklahoma and an overtime loss to Arizona State in Tempe. How good are they?

The Cowboys will struggle for a half before pulling away after the half. There is too much on the line for OSU this year to trip up here.

Oklahoma State 38 Missouri 23
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma -29.5:

2000: Oklahoma 27 Texas Tech 13
2002: Oklahoma 60 Texas Tech 15
2004: Oklahoma 28 Texas Tech 13
2006: Oklahoma 34 Texas Tech 24
2008: Oklahoma 65 Texas Tech 21
2010: Oklahoma 45 Texas Tech 7

Oklahoma might not be able to win in Lubbock (haven’t won there since 2003), but there are death, taxes and Oklahoma kicking the crap out of Texas Tech in Norman.

Let’s average the points out, give Oklahoma an extra 10 points to account for a Texas Tech defense that has given up 154 points in the last four games, can’t pressure the quarterback and can’t stop the run and take away a point from Texas Tech for starting a quarterback that has a bad consonant/vowel ratio and we have a final.

Oklahoma 53 Texas Tech 14
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for World Series tickets in Arlington.

The Week That Will Be (10.15.2011)

2011-10-12T23:40:00.002-05:00

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 19-17 (.528) ($10) ATS 24-12 (.667) SU

Last week we learned that Gus Malzahn is no magician, as Auburn completed 9 passes for 104 yards. The fact that Auburn is 4-2 might be a minor miracle…

…we learned that this Nebraska team is not that good, as they had to mount a furious comeback on a beleaguered Ohio State squad. We might have learned that Joe Bauserman might be the most troubled quarterback in college football, as he went 1 for 10 with an interception in relief of the injured Braxton Miller.

…we learned that the new NCAA celebration rule is truly lame, as the LSU punter is the first victim. Kind of like arresting Al Capone’s shoe shine guy, no?

…we learned that Gary Pinkel is still a jackass, as he ignored Bill Snyder’s overtures at the end of K-State’s win over Missouri.

…we learned that Texas A&M would have once again blown a second half lead had it not been for a blocked field goal and a punt returned deep into Tech territory. The Aggies only averaged 3.2 yards per play in the half.

...and finally, we learned that no matter how much we wished it wasn’t the case, a rebuilding job isn’t done in a day.

Anyhow…

I stood in the courtyard of the Old Mill, unable to even speak due to a mixture of disappointment, befuddlement and general crankiness, drinking a beer that didn’t taste any better than the wax cup that it came in. Surrounded by merriment and joy, I couldn’t think of a worse place to be on a beautiful Saturday afternoon.

How in the hell did that happen?

If you read this column last week you probably know what I think about the youth theory…Missouri has a sophomore quarterback and a sophomore running back and seemed to handle the moment just fine in Norman. Florida State lost their quarterback and had to put in a freshman quarterback that handled the moment adequately.

Perhaps it does make a difference when EVERYONE on your two deep just about is playing in their first Texas/OU game, but c’mon, we need guys with 2 or 3 years experience to stay within 38 points of Oklahoma?

But it’s over. There have been some fabulous write-ups on this website and others about what happened and why, so I’m not going to dwell too much on it.

Instead, where do we go in the short term? Here is what I’d like to see as we go into the second half of the season after this game:

- Find a quarterback. There has not been a quarterback rotation in the history of football that has actually worked. Whether the idea was to see both of these guys, or whether neither of these guys seized the reins since then, the quarterback rotation needs to settle into a manageable situation where one guy can start working on a rapport with his already depleted receiving corps. I know at Texas we like to pick sides and call ourselves a “Fill in the Blank” guy, but I honestly don’t care who it is, he just needs to be pinpointed over these next couple of games so we can go into next season with a clear path, and so the University Co-op doesn't have to keep making a bunch of different jerseys.

- Give the ball to Malcolm Brown. I thought we had decided to make this Malcolm Brown’s offense in Pasadena when he carried the ball 22 times, but against Iowa State he carried the ball 15 times and against Oklahoma he carried it 17 times. This team is not a passing team by any sense of the imagination. Begin to embrace the identity of a run first team that sets up the pass, like Boise State has been the past few years. More people around the country should know who Malcolm Brown is at this point of the year. Pull a Barney Stinson and say “excuse me America have you met Malcolm?”

- Keep up the Accountability. Rotate in and out. If someone looks at you wrong, take him out and put someone else in. If someone misses a block and our quarterback gets clobbered, take him out. If techno music is played at all, take the sound guy out. This year is about getting back to where you want to be, yes, but it is also about finding the guys that can help you get there.

- Win. Duh. We’re back to trying to be realistic here, but win the games you should win on paper (Kansas, Texas Tech and Kansas State); win at least one in the trio of Texas A&M, at Missouri and at Baylor; and give Oklahoma State all they can handle this weekend and show me that you’re better than the product put on the field last week. How are we supposed to be arrogant Texas fans if we get beat by 38?

But, if this season should go the way of 2010, please give the proper notice to find a decent beer.

On to the games...

LSU -17 @ Tennessee:

The one thing you need to know about this game is that Tennessee has struggled mightily against the two best defenses they have faced, needing 10 fourth quarter points to make it respectable against Florida and rushing for -21 yards against Georgia last week.

LSU is slightly better than those two squads. Factor in that Vols QB Tyler Bray is out and while these two teams usually play close games, I’m not sure how Tennessee scores here.

LSU 31 Tennessee 6
ATS – LSU
SU – LSU

Michigan @ Michigan State -2:

Michigan State has won the last three in this series, and they get it done here as they are at home and have the better defense. The Spartans actually have statistically the nation’s best in total defense, but of course they have played juggernauts like Youngstown State and Florida Atlantic before Notre Dame and a watered-down Ohio State team.

Michigan State 24 Michigan 16
ATS – Michigan State
SU – Michigan State

Arizona State @ Oregon -14.5:

In what looks to be a preview of the Pac-12 Championship Game, Arizona State looks for more respect here after a road win at Utah last week and a close loss in Illinois earlier in the year.

The Sun Devils might have a chance if Oregon comes out as sloppy as they did last week, but Brock Osweiler will have to play his best game yet in order to beat Oregon.

Oregon 44 Arizona State 24
ATS – Oregon
SU – Oregon

Kansas State @ Texas Tech -3:

If it isn’t surprising that Kansas State is 5-0 it might be surprising how they got there, defeating Miami, Baylor and Missouri along the way. And they’re doing it with defense again, giving up only 326 total offensive yards to Missouri last week, who is averaging 478 yards otherwise.

Tech might very well protect their home field here, but it is setting up for the classic trap game right after a rivalry game (Texas A&M) and right before a big game (@ Oklahoma). Kansas State likes to run the ball, and Tech is more than willing to let them, giving up 224 yards on the ground per game this year.

Kansas State 31 Texas Tech 27
ATS – Kansas State
SU – Kansas State

Baylor @ Texas A&M -9.5:

How in the world does Texas A&M stop Baylor here? The Bears average 562 yards and 47 points per game, and Robert Griffin is 2nd in passing efficiency and 5th in total offense. If the Aggies couldn’t stop Tyler Wilson (510 yards passing), Seth Doege (391 yds, 3 TD) and Brandon Weeden (438), how in the world are they going to stop Griffin, who is certainly better than two of those guys and might be the best of the bunch?

This will be a shootout, and right now I think Baylor is a better football team. They go into Kyle Field and pull off the upset.

Baylor 42 Texas A&M 37
ATS – Baylor
SU – Baylor

Oklahoma State -8 @ Texas:

Oklahoma State dominated last year’s game in Austin, adding 10 points in the final 1:15 of the first half on their way to a 33-3 lead at one point before giving up two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to make it somewhat respectable.

You know Weeden and Blackmon. Weeden had 409 and a touchdown against us last year, that touchdown going to Blackmon, who had 145 yards receiving against NFL first-rounder Aaron Williams.

The Cowboys are averaging 577 yards and 51 points per game…so forget about winning any sort of shootout with them, at least with our offense. About your only chance is to have Weeden throw interceptions, which he was apt to do early in the season, but he hasn’t thrown an interception in his last two games, throwing the ball 88 times in that span.

Get the running game going, shorten the game and get the turnovers that they got against UCLA and Iowa State and the Longhorns might have a chance. But this team might be better than OU. Uh oh.

Oklahoma State 37 Texas 21
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Random Hot Dallas Chick

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The Week That Will Be (10.08.2011)

2011-10-05T23:47:00.001-05:00

Last Week: 3-3 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 17-13 (.567) ($230) ATS 20-10 (.667) SU

What we learned last week:

We learned that Clemson might actually be for real…if they don’t pull a Clemson. While we were all enamored with their offense in their wins over Florida State and Auburn, they held Virginia Tech to 258 total yards and more importantly did it in Blacksburg. Impressive.

…that Russell Wilson would win the Heisman trophy if the season were four games long, as he ranks first nationally in yards per attempt and second in passing efficiency while leading Wisconsin to a drubbing of Nebraska.

…that Florida’s defense was overhyped while Alabama’s was not. Well, we knew that Alabama’s defense was for real, but after giving up 119 yards in the first two Gator possessions, they allowed 77 in the next nine and knocked John Brantley out of the game. Stout.

…that Robert Griffin won’t even get invited to New York with that defense. That Bears defense is giving up nearly 29 points per game, and sometimes you are going to lose shootouts.

…that A&M…what joke hasn’t been made already? The Mike Sherman era (21-21) is eerily similar to the Dennis Franchione (22-20) era at Texas A&M, which will join the toughest conference in the country next season, where games against Arkansas not in Fayetteville are looked upon as bye weeks.

And finally, we learned that there is something to this “Redemption Tour” (I refuse to call it “revenge”) as Texas steamrolled Iowa State in the first half and thought about hitting the casinos in Council Bluffs the rest of the night.

Anyhow…

“If you want it you can get it for the rest of your life.” – Kanye West & Rhianna, All of the Lights

From this column in 2008:

“Youth wins.

Young Wilkinson beat old stodgy Texas. Young Royal turned the tables. Young Switzer did what Royal and his replacement Fred Akers better. Young Stoops beat Mack Brown with fresh new schemes and by being one of the first to use the spread offense which would become a staple in college football in this decade.”

That was before the Texas/OU match-up, where newly hired Will Muschamp and Major Applewhite helped Texas come out on top 45-35. Fast forward to 2011, and Bryan Harsin and Manny Diaz will experience their first Texas/OU game.

They aren’t the only ones. Case McCoy and David Ash will go under center for the first time in this game. Malcolm Brown will play in his first OU game. As will Mike Davis. And Jaxson Shipley. As will most members of a young secondary.

At first glance, and apparently a lot of sports reporters this week never got past that first glance, that is an obvious downside to going with youth, that when you get to monumental games like this where emotion plays a big part and every play seems to be life or death that experience seems to triumph over talent.

But we all know that Texas and Oklahoma isn’t just another game.

Let’s look at just the Brown/Stoops Era. Quentin Griffin had 6 touchdowns in 2000. Jason White came off the bench in 2001 and led his team to victory. Adrian Peterson had 225 rushing yards in 2004. Jamal Charles (we finally get to a Longhorn) had a 80 yard touchdown scamper and a Texas freshman record 116 yards in 2005. Colt McCoy in 2006 threw for two scores.

Demarco Murray had 128 yards and a touchdown in 2007. Jermichael Finley didn’t have a catch in 2006 but had 4 for 149 and a touchdown in 2007. In 2008 Sam Bradford threw for 244 yards and three touchdowns, two of those to Jermaine Gresham, also playing in his first Texas/OU game. In 2009 Landry Jones threw for 250 yards and a touchdown in relief of an injured Bradford. Marquise Goodwin had the only Texas touchdown as a freshman that year. Kenny Stills had 78 receiving yards last year.

And who can forget James Brown in 1994 or Peter Gardere in 1989.

Experience matters…to a point. But in this game, where any Texas fan worth his salt can tell you who Bubba Jacques is, what matters most is opportunity.

It will be a wild scene on Saturday, as Lee Corso no doubt will fire off those deafening Ruffneck cannons just as 11 o’clock rolls around on the dial in a game that is literally in the middle of a carnival. But all of that will go out the window when the first person gets smashed in the mouth on the opening kickoff. Then it is just football.

And the opportunity to become the next Texas legend…no matter how many games you’ve played.

On to the games...

Auburn @ Arkansas -10:

Lost in the hoopla of Auburn’s win over South Carolina last week was the fact that Auburn turned the ball over four times, completed passes at a 3.4 per attempt rate and gave up 11 tackles for loss. Oh, South Carolina turned the ball over four times themselves and was 2 of 10 on third down conversions.

Arkansas should be able to move the ball here, but will they be able to stop anyone? They’ve allowed 104 points in the last three contests, don’t generate any sort of pass rush and don’t tackle anyone behind the line of scrimmage.

Arkansas 38 Auburn 31
ATS – Auburn
SU – Arkansas

Ohio State @ Nebraska -11:

Ohio State came very close to being shut out at home for the first time since 1982, averaged 3.3 yards per pass attempt and 3.4 yards per rush attempt last week…and now get to face a pissed off Nebraska team that is looking for a “name” win after getting embarrassed in their Big 10 opener last week.

Michigan State turned the ball over three times and missed a field goal inside the Ohio State 40 yard line last week. Nebraska in Lincoln won’t do that.

Nebraska 31 Ohio State 13
ATS – Nebraska
SU – Nebraska

Florida @ LSU -13.5:

Will Muschamp has his work cut out for him this week, getting this demoralized Florida team ready to go to Baton Rouge and take on LSU. True freshman Jeff Driskel gets the start, and if it is possible the defense he will face this week will be better than the defense he played last week.

That Florida defense might be able to keep it a game for a half or so, but LSU will eventually wear them down on both sides of the ball and run away with it.

LSU 31 Florida 10
ATS – LSU
SU – LSU

Missouri -3.5 @ Kansas State:

Yep, that about tells you the quality of the slate of games in the Big 12 this week.

Missouri 31 Kansas State 24
ATS – Missouri
SU – Missouri

Texas A&M -8.5 @ Texas Tech:

After getting owned by Tech for the better part of the aughts, the Aggies have won the last two in this series, including a 45-27 win at Kyle Field last year where Ryan Tannehill threw for 449 yards and 4 touchdowns. But Tannehill has been rather ordinary this year, ranking 51st in the country in passing efficiency.

If he isn’t better than that, it is going to be hard for A&M to come out of here with a win. And it is going to be hard to come out of here with a win if the nation’s worst pass defense (allowing 337 yards per game) doesn’t snap out of it. A&M likes to put pressure on the quarterback, but they are sacrificing yards for sacks, and eventually that has killed them.

Aggies win…but have to hold on again.

Texas A&M 41 Texas Tech 37
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Texas A&M

Oklahoma -10 vs. Texas:

Awake from an alcohol-induced coma sometime in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s game and you’ll probably be able to tell who is winning by how clean Landry Jones’ white jersey is. Let him stand in the pocket and he’ll pick you apart with his multitude of weapons. Rattle him, or pressure him, and he’ll start throwing the ball to the wrong team, hurry the already hurried offense and generally panic like an air traffic controller with a case of the runs.

It is also no secret that Jones struggles away from Norman, looking very pedestrian against Florida State in Tallahassee earlier this year and losing five of his first six road starts in his career. Oklahoma fans will try to tell you that it isn’t the case anymore, as he beat Baylor, Oklahoma State, Nebraska and Connecticut on the road (or at neutral sites last year) to end the season, but you’ll kindly remind them that it is Baylor, he had three first half interceptions against Oklahoma State, that Nebraska was up 17-0 in that game and that wins against UConn only count in basketball.

Texas played Jones well last year, and played Oklahoma as a whole fairly well with the exception of Demarco Murrary, who is currently sparing everyone to death as a Dallas Cowboy this year and should be ineligible for this game but I wouldn’t put it past a Stooops brother to pull a fast one.

Play defense like we did last year and this game is very winnable (Ryan Broyles in three career games against Texas: 12 catches for 130 yards. Salty). Get in a shootout and we might as well go look for the fried banana pudding.

On offense, the good news is that Brent Venables was seen crying while cleaning crews cleaned out his office of 13 years of Greg Davis tendencies. Venables had to clear Dancing With the Stars and Heart of Dixie off his DVR and actually record more than one Texas game this year.

Now that the Greg Davis joke series is over, what will Texas try to do? Hell if I know, and that is the beauty of mad scientist Bryan Harsin. We know he will attack an Oklahoma defense that has looked flat out ordinary at times from multiple angles. He might try to pound Malcolm Brown against an undersized front seven that allowed 5.80 yards per carry to Missouri, or he might try to air it out against a defense that is susceptible to the big play (again).

There is absolutely nobody giving Texas a shot this week. Strike up the All I Do Is Win on the floor of the Cotton Bowl, LHB.

Texas 27 Oklahoma 24
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Fletcher’s Corny Dogs.

The Week That Will Be (10.01.2011)

2011-09-28T23:11:00.000-05:00

Last Week: 4-2 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 14-10 (.583) ($260) ATS 16-8 (.667) SU

What we learned last week:

We learned that Mike Stoops should probably be sending feelers elsewhere as Oregon ran for 415 yards on 47 carries as Arizona got hammered for the third straight week.

…that LSU is probably the best team in the country as their offense was efficient at best but they still managed to down West Virginia by nearly four touchdowns on the strength of takeaways (Oregon feels your pain WVU) and special teams play (again, they feel your pain).

…that Alabama could be right behind them with that defense and Trent Richardson running like the cars he drives, but they’ll need A.J. McCarron to make a play at some point.

…that apparently Kansas State is better than we all thought, knocking over Miami on the strength of 286 rushing yards on 36 carries. Bill Snyder might be able to pass as a South Florida resident, but he can coach some football.

…that we can hold off on anointing Oklahoma as the best team in the country after falling down quickly to Missouri. Nobody thought that they were going to lose that game, but you are at home against a team that beat you last year, great teams roll there.

…and finally, we learned that Texas A&M’s offense left for the SEC a half early as they choked one away at Kyle Field.

Anyhow…

The 2010 Texas Longhorns started the season 3-0, but that is akin to saying that the Titanic made it out of port just fine. Which is to say yes, this team is 3-0 and has been much more impressive in getting there than last year, but the potentially hardest three game stretch of their season lies ahead of them in the next three weeks.

This isn’t the same Iowa State team that Texas beat 56-3 in the midst of what we thought at the time was the dreadful 2007 season. This Iowa State team is undefeated (more on that later), and will host a sold-out stadium that would like nothing better than to beat Texas for the second straight year.

Add to that nervousness is the fact that Mack Brown said the Longhorns had a couple of lackluster practices last week after feeling good about themselves coming off the victory against UCLA, and the fact that Oklahoma is next week, and this is the classic trap game where a young team starts to think it is better than it is and can waltz into another team’s stadium and walk away with a victory.

Texas is saying all the right things this week, but beware.

Next week the Longhorns stay on the road and travel to Dallas to play Oklahoma. If you are reading this column I really don’t have to tell you the importance of that game, but consider that a great percentage of our two-deep are freshmen and sophomores that have never walked off the Cotton Bowl field with a ridiculous golden hat on their heads after beating Oklahoma.

And yes, we should mention that unless Oklahoma falls to Ball State this weekend (and David Letterman throws the biggest party in America), the Sooners will travel to Dallas ranked at the very least in the Top 3 of the country. It would be a monumental win for a rebuilding program, a sign that we might be a year ahead of schedule.

After that, the Longhorns finally travel back home to take on Oklahoma State, which for a half last week looked more like Khloe than Kourtney or Kim, but then knocked A&M off their own field with that trademark Kardashian rear end. It might be a stretch but not a huge stretch to say that Oklahoma State will present a greater challenge on defense than Oklahoma will, with Brandon Weeden eligible for Social Security in the next year and Justin Blackmon looking like Dez Bryant with a good head on his shoulders.

Win one of those three, and we might be where any rational fan might have projected we would be. Win two, and it could be that sign that we are a year ahead of schedule in the Longhorn rebuilding project. Win all three…and we’re talking about a Longhorn football team ranked firmly in the Top 10, we’re talking about building a statue of Case McCoy and David Ash in the Red McCombs Red Zone and we’re debating whether or not Malcolm Brown will leave for the NFL before he wins four Heismans.

These next three weeks won’t make or break the program, but it is a great opportunity to see where we are as a program halfway into the first year of this new era followed by a number of winnable games leading up to the Thanksgiving tilt with Texas A&M.

Insert Bart Scott quote here.

On to the games...

Clemson @ Virginia Tech -7:

Clemson is 4-0 on the strength of an offense directed by Chad Morris and acted out by sophomore Tajh Boyd, who has 13 touchdowns to only 1 interception. Unfortunately for Clemson, they also have a defense that is allowing 405 yards per game to teams like Auburn and Florida State, yes, but also to teams like Wofford and Troy.

Clemson’s first road game in 2011 ends in a loss.

Virginia Tech 27 Clemson 23
ATS – Clemson
SU – Virginia Tech

Nebraska @ Wisconsin -9.5:

Nebraska’s first Big 10 conference game finds them in Madison, where they have not played since 1962. The Cornhuskers welcome back Jared Crick, who missed last week’s game with an injury.

But you have to wonder if it will matter since Nebraska has given up 81 points in three games with and without him, against lackluster competition such as Fresno State, Washington and Wyoming.

Russell Wilson has been outstanding (1,136 yards passing, 11 TD 1 INT). Add his performance to a Wisconsin rushing attack and I see Nebraska getting run out of the building here.

Wisconsin 34 Nebraska 17
ATS – Wisconsin
SU – Wisconsin

Alabama -4 @ Florida:

It is the #2 defense in the country (Alabama) against the #5 defense (Florida) in what promises to be a low scoring slugfest.

The question is, which quarterback do you trust here to make a play if the running games get bottled up? A.J. McCarron (Alabama) and John Brantley (Florida) have been remarkably similar, with McCarron throwing for 779 yards to Brantley’s 752, McCarron completing 66.3% of his passes compared to Brantley’s 64% completion percentage, a 4/2 TD to INT ratio for each, and a negligible difference in YPA (8.20 to 8.74).

Who wins here? Your guess is as good as mine.

Alabama 17 Florida 14
ATS – Florida
SU – Alabama

Baylor -3.5 @ Kansas State:

It would be a waste of space to talk about Robert Griffin’s accomplishments here, you know that he has more touchdown passes than incompletions, but the question is, can he and Baylor do it on the road?
Griffin had 404 yards passing against Kansas State last year, and figures to approach that number this year, but Baylor needs to win games like this convincingly to start proving that they belong.

Baylor 31 Kansas State 24
ATS – Baylor
SU – Baylor

Texas A&M -3 vs. Arkansas:

The Aggies finally get their dream SEC match-up, unfortunately for them they have lost both games against Arkansas since renewing this series two years ago.

A&M fell in love with the pass last week, throwing the ball 18 times in the fourth quarter and only giving Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael a combined 19 carries overall. Ryan Tannehill can be great, although he was borderline awful last week, but A&M is at their best when those two guys get going.

Arkansas has their own problems, but throwing the football is not one of them. They are averaging 312 yards through the air on the year despite only throwing for 209 last week against Alabama. They should be able to move the ball on the A&M secondary that is giving up 279 yards through the air.

Arkansas 31 Texas A&M 28
ATS – Arkansas
SU – Arkansas

Texas -9.5 @ Iowa State:

The first thing you hear about Iowa State is about their quarterback, Steele Jantz, who played last year at City College of San Francisco, who Mike Stoops tried to schedule at the end of the year to pad his win totals when he heard this story.

Jantz has been good but not great, completing less than 60% of his passes and throwing for only 666 yards in 3 games with 6 TD and 6 INT. He’s been clutch, but not consistent. He is what some might call “Iowa State hot”, as in “pretty good for what you’ll find at Iowa State.”

Insert obligatory “they beat us last year” here.

So how did Iowa State get out to that 3-0 record? They beat a Northern Iowa squad by one point that went on to defeat both Stephen F. Austin and Western Illinois. They then beat Iowa in 3 overtimes, a Hawkeye team that is allowing 386 yards per game. And then there was the 4 point win over defending Big East champion UConn, who beat Buffalo by 2 touchdowns last week.

Let’s put it this way. If Texas had the same results, we would have people crashing the Internet with rants about how Mack Brown is washed up and we need to replace him with Major Applewhite.

However, that isn’t to say that Iowa State doesn’t present a formidable challenge. Like what was mentioned earlier, this will be a real test for a young team that will face their first true hostile environment against a team that very well could be bowl eligible by the end of the year.

Get up big like you did against UCLA, and Iowa State doesn’t have the weapons to come back. Let them hang around, however, and this team will gain confidence behind a sold-out stadium.

Texas 24 Iowa State 17
ATS – Iowa State
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for #6 jerseys at the Co-op.

The Week That Will Be (09.24.2011)

2011-09-21T21:13:00.000-05:00

Last Week: 3-3 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 10-8 (.556) ($100) ATS 12-6 (.667) SU

What we learned last week:

We learned that Will Muschamp likes to stare a lot, but he wasn’t staring at Chris Rainey, as he was the Florida offense, amassing 232 total yards in Florida’s victory over Tennessee.

…that LSU’s defense could probably shut out a few NFL teams. Good lord.

…that Joe Bauserman is not the latest in the line of “Big Stiff But Effective” quarterbacks at Ohio State, as he and back-up Braxton Miller had combined for 13 passing yards late in the 4th quarter in their loss to Miami.

…that Oklahoma State (and Tulsa for that matter) have some guys that can play on Sundays.

…that Oklahoma and Florida State play some boring, yet highly rated football.

…and that the Longhorns can have a successful business trip. A Case McCoy tweet late in the week stated that as the goal, but 284 rushing yards later the Longhorns had run all over UCLA for a change.

While I don’t get as much mail as much more successful writers like Bill Simmons, that doesn’t mean that we can’t disguise a random thoughts column inside a “synthetic” mailbag column. Remember, these are NOT actual letters from actual readers:

What is up with Texas ducking Texas A&M on Thanksgiving weekend from now on?

Bill B.
College Station, TX

Well, Bill, the fact of the matter is that Texas A&M agreed to a contract last year, agreed upon the parameters of the Longhorn Network earlier this year, and only now, a month before the season kicked off, decided to catapult the college football world into chaos.

Now Fredo Corleone is in bed with the Barzini family, letting their dirty practices into our neighborhood…so no, you’re not a brother or a friend, I don’t want to know you or what you do…I don’t want you near my house…you understand?

Why can’t you Texas fans realize that revenue sharing might be un-American but we must honor old rivals like Washington State who go to the Rose Bowl once a generation in favor of teams that go to the Rose Bowl several times a decade?

Larry S.
Los Angeles, CA

Why, of course, Larry…we will of course share our Tier I and Tier II rights equally, no matter if we are on TV more than Seinfeld re-runs…but you really need our $15 million for our Tier III rights, also known as the Longhorn (Notice No Red Raider) Network?

If we gave the member schools their 1/16th share, USC would spend the money on more, ahem, student housing…UCLA could then afford Oscars-like seat fillers to fill up the Rose Bowl on Saturday afternoons…Stanford would buy a few more trees to hug…Cal might be able to field a baseball team…Oregon would just buy more “scouting materials”…Washington would buy VHS videotapes of their 1991 season in review…and Washington State might put up a Ryan Leaf statue.

We’ll save you the embarrassment.

Did you see how late that Oklahoma State/Tulsa game started the other night? I was in bed reading oil prospectuses by 9 o’clock!

T.B.P.
Stillwater, OK

I can’t even imagine the chaos that would surround our tailgating lot by the beginning of a football game that kicked off after midnight…but I imagine it to be just like a Dolph Lundgren movie…or a rap video, I don’t know.

Does the Alumni Center call for last call at 1:45 AM as halftime is just beginning? Do we get infomercials instead of commercials during breaks? Do they break out the glow sticks when they play that awful techno music before kickoffs? We need to find out.

For a limited time only! #7 jerseys are half off! Get them now!

University C.
Austin, TX

Really? I’m going to buy a boatload and rebrand them as Matt Nordgren jerseys…dude is a hit these days.

On to the games...

Oregon -16 @ Arizona:

This is the third game of three in a ridiculous stretch in the month of September for Arizona, who also played at Oklahoma State (L 37-14) and home against Stanford (L 37-10) last week.

Nick Foles has been great (1,049 yards 7 TD/0 INT), but Oregon is too much for a worn out Arizona squad.

Oregon 44 Arizona 17
ATS – Oregon
SU – Oregon

LSU -6 @ West Virginia:

West Virginia has been inconsistent at best, going down at the half to Norfolk State and then getting up to a big lead and having to hold on against Maryland last week.

You’re going to have to be very good to perfect to beat this LSU defense, and although I’m a big Dana Holgersen fan, the Tigers are only giving up 47 yards per game on the ground and 207 total yards through three games that included Mississippi State and Oregon.

LSU 24 West Virginia 13
ATS – LSU
SU – LSU

Arkansas @ Alabama -12:

Arkansas would take their lead last year, where they were up on Alabama 20-7 in the second half before the Crimson Tide roared back.

In the last trip to Tuscaloosa the Razorbacks got their hide handed to them, 35-7, and I expect more of the same as an Arkansas offensive line that has given up 7 sacks to three non-descript opponents will have their hands full with this defense.

Alabama 27 Arkansas 10
ATS – Alabama
SU – Alabama

Kansas State @ Miami -13:

Miami might have found a running back last week against Ohio State as Lamar Miller carried the ball 26 times for 184 yards in their 24-6 win. The Buckeyes hadn’t given up that many yards since the Cooper era.

Meanwhile, Kansas State starts a quarterback who has thrown for 202 yards against Eastern Kentucky and Kent State.

Miami rolls them.

Miami 31 Kansas State 16
ATS – Miami
SU – Miami

Missouri @ Oklahoma -21:

This is a revenge game of sorts, as Oklahoma lost to Missouri in Columbia last year, 36-27 in a game where the Tigers had nearly 500 yards of offense.

The X factor here is Missouri quarterback James Franklin. After a lukewarm debut, he’s thrown for 319 yards for 2 touchdowns against Arizona State and then 246 and 3 touchdowns against…ahem…Western Illinois last week. But we all know the trouble that Oklahoma has had with mobile quarterbacks throughout the years, and Franklin rushed for 187 yards in two games against Miami of Ohio and ASU before sacks.

Landry Jones was very ordinary last week, although that was on the road against a tough defense. Oklahoma wins here, but Missouri keeps it interesting for a while.

Oklahoma 38 Missouri 24
ATS – Missouri
SU – Oklahoma

Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M -4:

And the game of the week is in…College Station, Texas? Unless you are ESPN Gameday that is. These two teams played an outstanding game in Stillwater last year as the teams combined for 888 yards in a 38-35 Oklahoma State victory.

Two things to watch here:

1.) Texas A&M, after two games, leads the nation in sacks with 11 and also leads the nation in sacks allowed, not having allowed one in two games.

2.) Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden has been careless with the football this year, throwing for 6 interceptions in 3 games.

If Texas A&M is able to pressure Weeden into making mistakes, shortening the field for those two running backs, the Cowboys will be dead in the water. Conversely, if Oklahoma State isn’t able to get to Ryan Tannehill, it will be a long night for them as their secondary has allowed 727 yards in 3 games.

These two teams will trade punches early, but eventually A&M will wear them down…even quicker if Weeden starts throwing to the wrong jersey.

Texas A&M 41 Oklahoma State 35
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – Texas A&M

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for buying third tier rights to your local community college.

The Week That Will Be (09.17.2011)

2011-09-15T00:19:00.002-05:00

Last Week: 3-3 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 7-5 (.583) ($130) ATS 8-4 (.667) SU

We learned last week:

…that Auburn has been outgained by 234 yards in their first two games and Gene Chizik might have had horrible hair in high school, but they obviously bought the extended warranty.

…that EA Sports has outdone themselves this year, as I could have sworn that the Notre Dame/Michigan game where I saw three touchdowns in the final 1:22 was live action and not a video game.

…that Alabama is Alabama, and they do what they do, which is thump non-SEC opponents handily.

…that Mark Richt had better start looking at Zillow.com.

…that yes, it is possible to freeze your own kicker as Gary Pinkel proved.

And finally, we learned that Texas can out-physical another team…that they have progressed as that was a game that they lose last year, and that the leash was indeed short.

Mention the Rose Bowl around a group of Texas fans and they’ll break into a broad grin…but give them a second and they’ll also shake their head and look at the ground in disgust.

Sure, there is the beauty and tradition. Listen carefully and you can still hear the tones of Keith Jackson float over you as you gaze at the sunset reflecting off the San Gabriel mountains. There isn’t a better venue in all of sports in my opinion, but that isn’t why they smile.

They smile because of 4th and 6 at the North end of the field. They grin because of the fluttering kick at the same end of the stadium. And they shake their head because the last time we were in that stadium a national championship that they know was theirs went down with Colt McCoy’s injured shoulder.

Although Saturday’s match-up between Texas and UCLA has nothing like that on the line, we all know that where this team goes, intrigue follows.

The intrigue presents itself at the most important position on the field, the quarterback. Leading Texas onto the field on Saturday will be Case McCoy, Colt’s brother, who unlike his brother will be attempting to begin his legacy instead of cementing it.

Garrett Gilbert will once again take his seat on the Rose Bowl bench…this time as a jilted starter, not the bright eyed freshman taking it all in. If he plays this time it will once again be a story, but instead of a story of opportunity it will be a story of redemption or desperation, whichever side you should happen to fall upon.

Before McCoy, before Gilbert, before the other McCoy, before Young and Mangum, there was another game at the Rose Bowl that stick out to Texas fans old enough to remember the lean(er) years.

In 1998 the Longhorns entered Pasadena looking to avenge the 66-3 loss at the hands of the Bruins the year before. Texas was ranked #23, UCLA #6, so it should have been a competitive game but once again it was not as UCLA got out to a 35-3 lead at half-time.

But unlike the previous year, the Longhorns made a spirited charge at the end of the game on the legs of eventual Heisman Trophy winner Ricky Williams, and a freshman quarterback who made the most of his opportunity.

Texas was out of the game by the time Major Applewhite came into the game with 7:39 left in the fourth quarter, but nine plays later the Longhorns were in the end zone. First year head coach Mack Brown was impressed enough to make Applewhite the starter the next week (a 48-7 drubbing at the hands of Kansas State), and the rest…is history.

It remains to be seen how Case McCoy and David Ash handle their chance in the land of opportunity.

But if previous Texas trips to the Rose Bowl are any indication, it should be memorable.

On to the games...

Tennessee @ Florida -9.5:

There was a lot of talk about Cincinnati upsetting Tennessee last week, but Tyler Bray threw for 405 yards as the Vols dispatched of the Bearcats with ease.

Florida QB John Brantley is off to another slow start, throwing two interceptions to one touchdown for 424 yards in two games against doormats Florida Atlantic and UAB.

Florida will have enough on offense to win their seventh straight in the series here…but Tennessee has a little something this year so it should be close.

Florida 27 Tennessee 24
ATS – Tennessee
SU – Florida

LSU -3.5 @ Mississippi State:

Mississippi State looks to get back on track after letting one against Auburn get away from them, but it will be a formidable challenge as LSU has won 12 straight against the Bulldogs.

Lost in LSU’s season opening win over Oregon was the fact that they weren’t all that great. Jarrett Lee only managed 98 passing yards and the rushing game only averaged 3.6 yards per carry against an Oregon team that gave up 283 on the ground against Nevada last week.

Last week wasn’t much better as Lee threw for 133 and the Tigers averaged 3.9 ypc against Northwestern State. The LSU defense is national championship quality, but if the Bulldogs are able to get a few on the board, LSU won’t be able to keep up.

Mississippi State 26 LSU 20
ATS – Mississippi State
SU – Mississippi State

Ohio State @ Miami -2.5:

Jacory Harris is back for Miami, but he won’t help a secondary that gave up 348 yards to a guy named Danny (not Davey) O’Brien.

Ohio State 24 Miami 14
ATS – Ohio State
SU – Ohio State

Oklahoma State -13.5 @ Tulsa:

Tulsa has given up 593 passing yards through two games. They gave up 65 points to Oklahoma State last year, who returns Weeden and Blackmon. OSU rolls.

Oklahoma State 54 Tulsa 27
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Oklahoma -3 @ Florida State:

Oklahoma has never won a non-conference road game against a ranked opponent in the Bob Stoops era…which consists of about two games, one of those being the infamous loss to Oregon under auspicious circumstances. But it just seems a bit odd that they haven’t played more road games of that ilk, no?

What you have to ask in this game is….who the hell is E.J. Manuel? Well he’s thrown 12 touchdowns to 12 interceptions in 180 career passing attempts, and did lead the Seminoles to two bowl wins the last two seasons in relief of Christian Ponder. Is he good enough to beat Oklahoma? Sure. The Sooners gave up 271 passing yards to Tulsa and showed vulnerability against the pass all of last year.

Will he? Probably not.

Oklahoma 38 Florida State 30
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Texas -4 @ UCLA:

Stop the run. Stop the run. Stop the run. Play it on a loop at the practice fields all week, I don’t care. Stop the run and you beat UCLA.

Thankfully that actually looks like a possibility after the addition of Ashton Dorsey in the lineup helped Texas hold BYU to just 43 rushing yards. That effort will be needed as UCLA ran for 264 yards in last season’s 34-12 victory over Texas and return both running backs. Quarterback Kevin Prince ran for 50 himself and might play but that will be a game time decision after sustaining an injury earlier this year.

On defense, UCLA has (and let’s say this all together as it is a theme for UCLA) underachieved. Against doormat San Jose State the defensive line only combined for 11 total tackles, had no sacks, recorded no quarterback hurries and only had one tackle for loss.

Do that against Texas and they’ll run all over you (wow that is a relief to type).

So…sounds like Texas should roll, right? But who knows what you will get from McCoy and Ash? While the talent is there, this will be their first road test (if you don’t count Case McCoy’s one attempt at Rice last season). The Rose Bowl for a UCLA game is not an intimidating venue at all, but the fire is still a bit brighter away from home.

When in doubt, trust the coaching staff. Texas has more to gain here. They should expect UCLA’s best shot (we always get it), but I trust Bryan Harsin and Manny Diaz more than I do Rick Neuheisel and crew.

Texas 28 UCLA 20
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for In and Out.

The Week That Will Be (09.10.2011)

2011-09-07T21:45:00.000-05:00

Note: This entry can also be found at BarkingCarnival.com.

Last Week: 4-2 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 4-2 (.667) ($160) ATS 4-2 (.667) SU

What we learned last week:

We learned that Notre Dame just believes that a win over a double digit underdog at home to open the season is way too easy of a way to begin your season (4 out of the last 5 years now).

…that Georgia might belong to the SEC (SEC! SEC!) but Boise State just goes on, beating most opponents with ease. At some point we might start to respect their efforts.

…that LSU can win some ugly, ugly games, but they are wins and count in the win column all the same.

…that TCU won’t be leading the nation in defense this season, and that Robert Griffin III will be a Heisman candidate…until week 4 when they go to Manhattan and lose.

…that Texas A&M can win easily when handed 20 points shortly after kickoff. We’ll learn more about them in two weeks when they play Oklahoma State.

…that Bryan Harsin and Major Applewhite have a long ways to go until they catch Greg Davis’s legacy. Last Saturday was the 47th time that the Longhorns reached 500 yards under Mack Brown, and we all know that Davis is responsible for 46 of those. Note that tongue is firmly in cheek.

Since Auburn obviously won’t be defending their national championship trophy, it is time that we take a look at the top contenders for this year’s crown, who hopefully one day won’t have it vacated. And since this is once again the summer of conference realignment, let’s take a look at them against that backdrop, assigning tiers to the top characters in this year’s drama:

THE SEC DIVISION

It is pretty clear that Oklahoma, Alabama and LSU are the big dogs here. Oklahoma has a great offense with a somewhat questionable defense while the other two teams are vice versa so these are the teams most likely to be bitching at Boise State later in the year, but they are the top tier.

THE LONGHORN NETWORK DIVISION

We all know they are great, will be great, but will anybody watch Boise State? Will anyone take anything they do seriously? Well of course they will because they are 5th in the country and will likely take the top spot if any of the above teams falter.

THE TEXAS A&M DIVISION

Okay, we all know they are good, but how good is Florida State, Stanford, Oklahoma State and well, Texas A&M? Each team looks talented, but whether it be inexperienced quarterback (FSU), new coaching staff (Stanford), pee down their legs every year (OSU and A&M), they all have questions that will be answered at some point.

THE TEXAS DIVISION

Wisconsin knows that if they keep their head down, keep doing what they do, they’ll end up just find, likely in the national championship game if the dominoes fall just right.

THE BILL BYRNE DIVISION

You have to have some talent to get to this station in life, but Nebraska, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Oregon and Arkansas all have talented teams with comical issues at times. Nebraska has the Pelini brothers, who look about like what Billy Martin would look like as a football coach. Virginia Tech wins every year but at the same time loses every year. South Carolina has a quarterback who has odds on him getting suspended up on the board in Vegas and a coach that pees on the trees at Augusta National. Oregon has a high octane offense but the recruiting practices of a Ford Pinto. And Arkansas has Bobby Petrino possibly leaving mid-season for another job at any point in his tenure and well, has Arkansas fans.

THE BAYLOR DIVISION

Otherwise known as the field. Ohio State has controversy but enough talent to muddle through the Big 10. Mississippi State might be able to win if the top of the SEC decides to take this season off for academics. Florida would be entertaining just to see how much coffee Will Muschamp drinks during championship week. West Virginia would be interesting to see if Dana Holgorsen makes it to the game after being in New Orleans for a week. And yes, Texas could win it if Oklahoma gets stuck in traffic on the way to Dallas and A&M leaves for the SEC in October.

On to the games...

Mississippi State -6.5 @ Auburn:

Okay, we all know that Auburn needed a miracle to come back and win against Utah State last week, but do we really trust Mississippi State to go on the road and win a big game?

Yes. They won 8 of their last 10 last season, including a win in Gainesville and a bowl romp against Michigan. While they won’t roll up the 600 yards they did last week in a win against Memphis, they should be able to move the ball on an Auburn defense that gave up 448 to Utah State last week.

Mississippi State 31 Auburn 17
ATS – MSU
SU – MSU

Notre Dame -3.5 @ Michigan:

The first night game at the Big House wouldn’t be able to hide another five turnovers by Notre Dame like they rolled up against South Florida last week. The Irish haven’t won in Ann Arbor since 2005 and I don’t see them ending that streak against a tough crowd behind a team that is ready for a checkmark win for the new coaching staff.

Michigan 34 Notre Dame 28
ATS – Michigan
SU – Michigan

Alabama -10 @ Penn State:

Alabama’s quarterbacks (A.J. McCarron and Phillip Sims) were awful last week, throwing 4 interceptions, but the Tide don’t rely on quarterback play to win ballgames. Those quarterbacks will have to be better against a Penn State defense that returns four starters in the secondary, but Penn State has offensive troubles of their own, passing for only 114 yards on 20 attempts against Indiana State, playing without Larry Bird.

Last year’s 24-3 Alabama win was a Crimson Tide defensive showcase, as they held Penn State to 283 total yards. With nine returning starters, I see more of the same happening here.

Alabama 27 Penn State 7
ATS – Alabama
SU – Alabama

South Carolina -3 @ Georgia:

This game was Marcus Lattimore’s coming out party last season as the then true freshman ran for 187 yards. But Georgia will be desperate here and will pull off the upset against a Gamecocks defense that was mediocre at best last season.

Georgia 24 South Carolina 20
ATS – Georgia
SU – Georgia

Missouri @ Arizona State -8:

That certainly was an ugly start for Missouri, who will be without two defensive starters after they suffered injuries in that 17-6 win over Miami (OH). Arizona State is a sneaky defensive team that had solid outings against Oregon (125 rushing yards on 36 carries) and Stanford (Andrew Luck 292 passing, 0 TD 1 INT) last year. They return 8 starters, including linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who had three sacks last week.

It doesn’t look good for Missouri.

Arizona State 31 Missouri 16
ATS – Arizona State
SU – Arizona State

BYU @ Texas -7:

This isn’t your dad’s (or even older brother’s) BYU team that throws the ball all over the field and will threaten to go to a BCS bowl, this is still a formidable match-up for a young Texas team struggling for confidence.

Much has been made of BYU’s strong finish to last season (winning 5 of their last 6), but the combined records of those teams was 15-47. The quarterback is highly recruited Jake Heaps, who had an unspectacular 2010 followed by an underwhelming performance last week against Mississippi. In order to win this game, BYU will have to dink and dunk its way around the field. It won’t get much help from a running game that averaged 3.8 yards per carry last week. Depending on your view of the Texas defense from last week, you decide if that is any way to win this game.

As unthreatening as BYU’s offense is, they feature a physical defense that will provide a challenge to a Texas team that is still growing at the quarterback position. Garrett Gilbert will have to be on his A game here, and the mistakes that were shown early against Rice will need to be corrected.

Jump out on top early, and Texas can win this game with no problem. Let that defense shove you around and you will find yourself in a dogfight where their offense only needs one solid drive to beat you.

I like Texas here. With all due respect to Rice, I’m guessing that Bryan Harsin spent more time watching BYU film in the off-season than he did watching Rice. Add to that fact that BYU was in a physical game last week in a somewhat hostile territory, and I’m not sure that their young team can hold up.

Texas 28 BYU 17
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for a Jimmer Fredette Kings jersey.

The Week That Will Be (09.03.2011)

2011-09-01T07:28:00.000-05:00

Last Week: 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU
For the Year: 0-0 (.) ($) ATS 0-0 (.) SU

What we learned this off-season:

We learned that you can ride on a yacht and party with strippers and get a one game suspension, but you trade in an autographed glove and you’re getting five games. Nice consistency, NCAA……We learned that Texas A&M has self-esteem issues that will only be exasperated by joining a conference where they have no ally and everyone is just using them for their hot mom (recruiting in Texas)…..Meanwhile we learned that it is a good possibility that Texas can replace the Aggies on the schedule with Notre Dame. That is like losing your annoying little brother and getting a prom date with the hot drill team captain all in the same day….We learned that Auburn was cheating, we learned that Oregon was cheating, we learned that the guy in Section 4A, Row 4, Seat 3 was cheating on his wife, the hot dog guy was cheating on his taxes, the parking lot attendant was cheating people out of money by making a fake sign, Gene Chizik was cheating gravity by carrying a stone block on his shoulders; if you ain’t cheating, you ain’t playing in the national championship game, apparently…..and finally, we learned that Rachel McCoy doesn’t like Twitter after all.

Anyhow…

“If we can’t live together…we’re going to die alone.” – Jack Shepherd, LOST

One day when I am old and gray* and regaling my grandchildren with tales of how Texas won an unprecedented 10 national championships in a row while overtaking Michigan for all-time win numbers, fueled by the cloning of David Ash and his four Heisman trophy self, I’ll likely leave out the year 2010 unless I want to give some background on how Manny Diaz and Major Applewhite ascended to the throne when they made a drunken barroom bet that Diaz could win a certain number of national championships, would then retire, and Applewhite would try to overtake him.

The joke is on them, however, as they end up tying each other with five, leading to the most watched event on the Longhorn Network in the entity’s short history, Thumb Wrestling with Manny and Major.

(* anyone else have to Google gray every time they use it to make sure they don’t sound like an Englishman? Yeah, me neither.)

It is hard to pinpoint where it all went wrong in 2010, but only because Vegas has about 20 items on the LED board with odds on where it went wrong. Perhaps it was the erroneous decision to go with a pro-style offense even though new starting quarterback Garrett Gilbert was the most prolific passer in Texas high school football history (but c’mon, Texas doesn’t have much high school football history, does it?), perhaps it was the failed running game that made the decision to go to a pro-style offense even more baffling, perhaps it was the offensive line that was more concerned with “having fun” and making reporters laugh every Wednesday instead of going out and blocking somebody (which, by the way, made the decision to go to a pro-style offense even more foolish), perhaps it was a wide receivers corps that included guys known for dropping big passes and guys that bragged after the season about not working out (who may or may not have spent this Summer wearing a fleur de lis on his headgear in camp).

Maybe it was said quarterback who didn’t take command of the huddle when things went wrong, who didn’t demand respect from his offensive line when he was knocked down yet again without getting helped up yet again.

Maybe it was a defense that (how do I put this kindly), took some plays off midway through the season when it was apparent that the offense was a failure instead of buckling down and doing their job like a number of fine defenses with bad offenses have done in the past.

Maybe it was a coaching staff that instead of buckling down and doing their jobs for which they are rewarded handsomely decided to have Wrestlemania in the locker room following a loss to Iowa State complete with Benny Hill music playing while the offensive coordinator flies through the Spanish announcers table*. Maybe it was the same coaching staff that had the recruiting range of an Uncle Rico pass since the national championship and took only one running back in a particular class who, to their credit, is now in our two-deep….at defensive end. Perhaps it was the same coaching staff that was more interested in telling their agent they needed a new job instead of calling in a player to coach him up for a make or break game at the end of the season.

(*embellished)

No, when you look at 2010, you see a season where you wonder how bad it might have been if we didn’t have targets such as Rice and Florida Atlantic that even Chris Brown wouldn’t have had the heart to throw a punch at. It was a disaster, an unmitigated failure that left Tommy Tuberville and Bo Pelini meeting halfway somewhere in Kansas ordering shots of cheap whiskey from the bartender while they stroke their three day-old beard and mutter about how in the hell they lost to Texas last year while shielding their eyes when someone lets in the garish light of day.

Last year was about as bottom as it hopefully gets in Austin, but the good news is that we live in Fickle, USA where your national perception can turn on a dime.

That work began back in December when Mack Brown jettisoned longtime assistant coaches and replaced them with some of the best names in the business that on average were 11 years younger than their predecessors. Gone was the complacent staff that wore the same shirt every Wednesday, in were young guys with something to prove and the excitement of working at the University of Texas.

Boise State has led the charge in offensive innovation in recent years, so offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin was brought in to bring those fresh ideas to Texas. Darrell Wyatt was hired away from Kansas because he is one of the best at his position and because he is a dynamic recruiter who will get on the road and get the job done. Stacy Searels was hired to renovate an offensive line that has been an embarrassment since the national championship days.

Manny Diaz was Harsin’s defensive equal at Mississippi State, throwing out the old rules of defensive football and introducing an aggressive fire zone defense that befuddled SEC coaches so much that they gave Mack Brown glowing references when he called them about Diaz to get him out of the conference. Bo Davis was hired away from Alabama to teach our defensive tackles that it is okay to have more than one on the team.

One of the most important hires was Bennie Wylie as Strength and Conditioning coach in charge of football. Gone are the days of the strength and conditioning coach watching telenovelas in his office with his feet propped up on the desk and a box of donuts perched on his stomach while his senior players play Angry Birds instead of lifting weights. In are the days of former UT players that are now in the NFL tweeting that Wylie’s workouts are some of the hardest they’ve ever seen, a freak that runs with every group during the day, lifts weights with his defensive linemen, does push-ups for fun and then goes and saves a box of puppies from a burning building just to keep active. Want proof of Wylie’s skills? Senior linebacker Kennan Robinson bench pressed 385 pounds last summer…this summer that number is 455 pounds.

But you could have the 1992 Green Bay Packers coaching staff (Holmgren, Mariucci, Reid, Rhodes, Jauron, Gruden) take over the team and it wouldn’t improve that much if the roster wasn’t improved. Significant holes at the skill positions on offense were evident, as was attrition to graduation in the secondary. Poor habits in recruiting led to a dearth of upperclassmen that could contribute to a winning team, thus the old standard of “bleeding for the program” was shown the door for the *gasp* novel concept of having players earn their spot on the depth chart, no matter what class they were.

That direction in the Spring and Summer camps led to more than two dozen underclassmen being named in the two deep released this week, including Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron at running back and Jaxson Shipley and John Harris at wide receiver. Upper classmen on the offensive line were passed up by guys like Dominic Espinosa and Trey Hopkins. Defensive guys like Quandre Diggs and Adrian Phillips found themselves with early playing time as well.

Of course the most visible and most interesting roster decision would be who would be the quarterback against Rice. While Gilbert is the most celebrated, he had the worst year for a Texas quarterback since…Richard Walton? Marty Cherry? Gilbert threw 17 interceptions to only 10 touchdowns. He failed to impress anyone in the Spring Game, and early reports in albeit closed to the public Summer practices had him lagging behind Case McCoy and true freshman David Ash in the quarterback battle.

Midway through summer camp, however, McCoy started to show that last names don’t earn starting jobs and Ash started to actually act like a true freshman while Gilbert began to show signs of grasping the reins and running. He had a solid second scrimmage followed by a solid week of practice and therefore was named the starting quarterback by Harsin earlier this week…to a round of face palms by some Texas fans.

But if we’re to blame Greg Davis for everything from the failed offense in 2010 to the debt ceiling crisis to Rebecca Black releasing “Friday” to Wally Pryor getting fired to shooting J.R. Ewing, we must accept the fact that Gilbert could have simply been the victim of a failed transition to a different offense, one the offensive coordinator didn’t even want to run, a failed running game and the worst offensive line in the Mack Brown era at Texas.

Gilbert will surely have a short leash in 2011, and he damn well should after showing the propensity for turning the ball over in 2010. We are giving everyone a clean slate this year, but at the same time that means that hardly anyone has any capital built up with this team as well.

It is time to progress from Texas high school legend to viable starting quarterback for the University of Texas, and obviously this coaching staff believes that he can do just that…and without seeing one practice this summer, shouldn’t we be inclined to trust this “super staff”?

Gilbert will be fine. The offensive line is better, the running game is showing signs of life, and he has viable targets that want to catch the ball. He has two fine teachers for the position in Harsin and Applewhite. Unlike last year, he has every resource available to him. It isn’t like he forgot to play football in the last three years. It is sink or swim time. Swim, and you can become a Longhorn legend and every bad thing is forgotten. We’ve learned that from your two predecessors. Sink, and well, the team has other options.

Obviously this year is a crossroads year for Mack Brown and the Texas program. Brown has built enough credibility here to plan his own exit strategy, but at the same time the program sits on the precipice of falling into the same trap of mediocrity that befell Nebraska, Miami, Michigan and Florida State in the past decade. While nobody realistically expects this team to challenge for a conference title or a BCS Bowl berth, that should certainly be the goal of a prestigious program that should never strive for anything less.

There is no fall guy on the coaching staff this year. The talent is better. This squad will be as well prepared physically and emotionally going into the season as any dominant Texas team that preceded it in the modern era.

But what about the mental state? Is this team prepared to bind together, to put individual goals on the backburner while Texas football is reconstructed from the ground level up?

It appears so. They are saying all the right things. But we shall see for ourselves starting Saturday come 7 o’clock central.

Live together…or die alone.

On to the games...

South Florida @ Notre Dame -10.5:

Skip Holtz, who can actually speak English, brings his South Florida Bulls (made up, HBO fake college name) to South Bend for the first ever meeting between these two schools. It is year two for Brian Kelly, who looks to build upon last year’s bowl win over Miami. Dayne Crist is back under center for the Fighting Irish, who return 9 starters on offense for a team that was inconsistent on offense last season.

BJ Daniels is the quarterback for South Florida (UT fan favorite Darrell Scott will get time at tailback for USF), and while talented, he is hobbled and the Bulls will likely need him to be outstanding to go into South Bend and escape with a win. Look for Notre Dame to win…but South Florida keeps it close.

Notre Dame 27 South Florida 20
ATS – South Florida
SU – Notre Dame

Boise State -3.5 vs. Georgia:

Boise State is no stranger to marquee openers, having beat Oregon in 2008 at Autzen and Virginia Tech last year at FedEx Field. This year, however, they are the favorite (at least ranking-wise) and have to feel a bit like the hunted at this point.

Boise is known for great offense, but their defense finished second in the country last year and they return seven starters from that squad, including five in the front seven. Georgia, decimated by attrition and injury at running back won’t be able to beat the Broncos on the ground.

Georgia? How knows? They went 6-7 last year, finishing the regular season winning five out of seven with their only losses coming to Florida in overtime and at Auburn. But those wins were against Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Idaho State and Georgia Tech. They then fell completely on their face against Central Florida, losing 10-6 in the Liberty Bowl.

If Georgia pulls off the upset here they might have recovered from a couple of down years, but people keep counting out Boise and they keep rising to the occasion. Kellen Moore is for real, while Andy Murray….the jury is still out.

Boise State 28 Georgia 17
ATS – Boise State
SU – Boise State

LSU -4 vs. Oregon:

This was to be the Jordan Jefferson vs. Cliff Harris show until Jordan Jefferson auditioned for the Dallas Cowboys’ open placekicker job in a Baton Rouge establishment and Cliff Harris went out with Cheech and Chong then decided to audition for NASCAR on a quiet Oregon highway. Okay, it was never a battle involving Jefferson, but I couldn’t shoehorn that joke in there without that premise. Feel free to pepper the word allegedly throughout that paragraph.

All the talk is about Oregon’s backfield, but they lost three starters on an offensive line that requires smarts and repetition. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some growing pains while that line gels. Also troublesome for Oregon is the fact that they don’t have the best record away from Autzen Stadium, having lost to Boise State and Stanford on the road in 2009, losing to Ohio State in the 2010 Rose Bowl and last year’s BCS Championship Game to Auburn. Their next big win away from Oregon will be their first, and do you really trust that win to come against a big SEC opponent?

However, LSU has their own troubles, making a late run for the Fulmer Cup this summer. Jarrett Lee gets the start at quarterback, and if it seems like he has been there forever, he has, having started for LSU before the Louisiana Purchase went through and opened up the recruiting fields.

Seriously though, LSU’s defense returns seven starters to a unit that held Auburn to 24 points and kept the Aggies to seven second-half points in the Cotton Bowl. They have fast, athletic linebackers and defensive backs, so if the Oregon line does open holes for the backfield they should have the personnel to keep them at the second level.

Lee manages the game and LSU comes up with the win….but by how much?

LSU 20 Oregon 17
ATS – Oregon
SU – LSU

TCU -5.5 @ Baylor:

Casey Pachall replaces Andy Dalton under center, some questions about his maturity linger, but he has taken command of the huddle this summer and has shown the ability to step right in for Dalton with minimal drop-off. The question is an offensive line that features a converted tight end starting at left tackle and has the potential to be a landmine.

Baylor is set-up to have their best season in school history if their defense (led by new coordinator Phil Bennett) doesn’t get in the way. They set offensive records last year for total offense (6,179 yards), passing yards (3,649) and total points (405)and return Robert Griffin III and four starters on the offensive line that have 77 starts between them. They did lose Josh Gordon to stupidity and Jay Finley to graduation, but Kendall Wright can be a top receiver and a running back by committee will work when you have the talent at other positions.

TCU isn’t the dominant team that they were last year, but they still have the talent to make a decent run. Baylor has to win a game against a top opponent until people start to take them seriously. They lost this game in Fort Worth last year, 45-10.

TCU 34 Baylor 21
ATS – TCU
SU – TCU

SMU @ Texas A&M -15.5:

In one of the more interesting games of the weekend, we get to see how Texas A&M likes being the hunted, how they handle the raised expectations and more importantly, how they handle the distractions of the SEC movement? A&M could have snuck up on some people last year, especially when Ryan Tannehill was handed the job at mid-season with little fanfare, but this year teams have had a full off-season to study tape and prepare.

This is June Jones’s fourth year at SMU, and while the Mustangs have been to back-to-back bowl games, there is a feeling that you would have hoped there would have been more at this point. The Mustangs lost five of their last eight games last year, including a 16-14 loss to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl in their own stadium. If the Mustangs are to make the next step, which they hope is a shot at Big 12 membership, they’ll need to have a breakthrough season. That could get an excellent start with a win at Kyle Field.

The trouble is that SMU hasn’t won a non-conference road game since 1998, hasn’t beaten Texas A&M since 1984 and is only 3-9 in non-conference games under Jones.

If there was a problem with the Aggies last season (well, despite the obvious), it was their pass defense. They ranked 89th in the country, allowing 234 yards per game. And that was with Von Miller pressuring the quarterback.

Look for A&M to put up some points, but SMU can too. If SMU keeps a handle on the football, this one could still be somewhat of a contest in the fourth quarter.

Texas A&M 34 SMU 20
ATS – SMU
SU – Texas A&M

Rice @ Texas -24:

Rice has some weapons that should be able to give them a good enough season to feel good about themselves and possibly get into bowl eligibility.

But c’mon.

Texas has a lot of questions, but they should still be able to steamroll a team like Rice, especially when everyone on this roster has been looking forward to this game since Thanksgiving night of 2010, and every coach has had it circled since January. This is no warm-up game, it is a confidence builder to set the stage for a tougher than usual September slate against BYU and UCLA.

What should we want to see here? Obviously we’d like to see Gilbert have a great game, not a solid game, a great game, while showing that we have a viable rushing attack that can do what it is supposed to do against lesser squads. We would like to see a defense be aggressive yet disciplined, getting to the quarterback without the secondary looking completely lost with the air-raid Cougars coming to town next week.

Texas 38 Rice 7
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

The Week That Will Be (12.04.10)

2010-12-01T23:02:00.002-06:00

Last Week: 3-3 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 32-41-5 (.438) ($1270) ATS 51-27 (.654) SU

What we learned last week:

We learned that Texas needs to quit letting running backs get away to Oregon, and we learned that .5 spreads really, really suck…

We learned that Kyle Brotzman need not to put “good under pressure” on his resume, but the Broncos’ defense is just as much to blame, yielding 370 yards in the second half…

We learned that Cam Newton is Superman, and that 2009 Alabama kicks 2010 Alabama’s ass…

We learned that Knile Davis is a good running back…and is again from the state of Texas…

We learned that Oklahoma State is Oklahoma State, and the sooner we get that through our head the sooner we can all stop buying into them every other year…

And finally, we learned that Texas A&M can beat Texas by a touchdown in Austin and drop in the polls, and if that doesn’t say it all…

Anyhow…

“Bad night to be in Austin, Texas…”

As North Carolina coach Mack Brown roamed the sidelines on a balmy Carolina evening in a win over Stanford, assistant coach Cleve Bryant came up to Brown at one point and uttered that phrase after seeing the 66-3 UCLA/Texas score on the scoreboard at Kenan Memorial Stadium.

Little did Brown know that that night would be the catalyst to a life changing career move for him, his passing coordinator Bryant and his offensive coordinator Greg Davis.

Thirteen years later, there have been a lot of bad nights to be in Austin, Texas this fall.

There was the loss to UCLA in mid-September that looked eerily similar to the one in 1997 with the level of embarrassment only slightly diminished. There was the heartbreaking loss to Oklahoma. The embarrassing losses to Iowa State, Baylor and Kansas State. There was the demoralizing loss to Oklahoma State and the final nail in the coffin at the hands of Texas A&M.

And, of course, Cleve Bryant hasn’t had a good night in quite some time.

I wrote this in this space the week before the UCLA game:

So even if you get the shakes at the sight of those UCLA uniforms once again inside the confines of DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, take a moment to ponder how far this program has come since then, and if you could have ever imagined that when you walked out of the stadium that day.

We’re lucky, folks. Enjoy the ride, because you never know when it will come crashing down…

And crash down it did.

Why? There are plenty of reasons why, probably led by the implausible decision to switch to a power running attack in the off-season, even though you had the most prolific Texas high school passer of all-time on your roster, one that thrived in a spread attack at all levels in high school.

Why was that move made? We might not ever know the full truth, but I don’t really believe that Mack Brown and Greg Davis sat there and watched Alabama beat us last season and decided then and there he wanted to turn Cody Johnson into Mark Ingram and Fozzy Whitaker into Trent Richardson. We all know that Greg Davis is a pass happy offensive coordinator, are we really supposed to believe that he has the crown jewel of the 2009 recruiting class fall in his lap but he wants to take the ball out of Garrett Gilbert’s hands?

No, I believe that since Will Muschamp took over a lot of Mack’s duties last year in recruiting and what not, the decision was made by the entire coaching staff to start the transition in scheme to the pro-style attack that Muschamp prefers as well.

And it was an unmitigated disaster.

We couldn’t run the ball, and then when we couldn’t run the ball we decided to pass the ball, and then we decided to bring some of the spread attack, and all it did was result in confusion, unpreparedness and ambiguity for our offense.

But the offensive inefficiencies weren’t the only fault on this team. The defense flat out quit in several games, and there was zero accountability on either side of the ball. Players that made mistakes in the Rice opener were still out there making mistakes in the Texas A&M finale.

And where does the fault lie? On the entirety of the coaching staff. Sure, there are guys that need to go more than others, but each and every coach needs to do a Rick Barnes-style tear down this off-season and build himself back up to learn from this season, lest we repeat it again next season.

Make no mistake about it, there will be coaching changes this off-season, but if Mack Brown is trying to convince himself that this coaching staff doesn’t need wholesale changes, he is fooling himself.

5-7 will not work at Texas. It is not simply “a down year” as some out there would like to protest. The last time Texas Tech had a 5-7 type year? 1992, when they went 5-6. Oklahoma went 5-6 in 1998. USC went 5-7 in 2000. The last time Florida had five wins or less was 1979 when they went 0-10-1. Speaking of Florida, they had a “down” year this year and went 7-5, and looked terrible in the process, but you know what, they’re going to a bowl game and have something to build upon.

And if the record doesn’t tell you that this team needs a makeover, recruiting will tell you. We’re sitting pretty in 2011, led by Malcolm Brown, but 2012 is already looming, two months away from receiving actual commitments, and the scuttlebutt in recruiting circles is that we’re getting beaten badly by Texas A&M. And Mike Sherman. Think about how we all laughed when A&M hired Mike Sherman, and now he’s beating us at our own game.

And then there is the Cleve Bryant situation. I don’t know the full details, you don’t know the full details, Gloria Allred doesn’t know the full details, but what matters is that something happened that made someone pick up the phone and call the biggest, baddest lawyer she’s seen on Fox News, and the fact that this has lingered on for two months without resolution tells me that where there is smoke, there is fire. If anything close to what is being alleged happened, it is a massive black eye for the department and the school.

It is time to clean house, to root out the complacency that set in after the 2005 National Championship, to root out the coaches that think that just because we’re Texas it is our birthright to win ten games a year and play a January bowl game. We must do a top down teardown of what we have built and go back and look at how we built it, and do it again. Yeah, we’re Texas, but we are who we are through a lot of hard work, a lot of determination, and a lot of innovation and infusion of talent, none of which is happening right now.

So, Mr. Brown, if you want to step back and look at all of that, and tell us that one offensive position “retiring” is going to fix all of those problems, you need to go ahead and retire to that tobacco farm in North Carolina.

Don’t float stories to Chip Brown about how Cleve Bryant’s situation was detrimental to the team because he was the disciplinarian. If this is the half baked scheme of Brown, Davis and Bryant to save Greg Davis’s job by Cleve throwing himself under the bus, it will not work.

I’m sure next will be floating the idea that a play against Oklahoma here and a play against Iowa State there and a play against Baylor or Texas A&M here and we’re 8-4 and looking at the Texas Bowl, and yeah, that’s a down year but not as down as 5-7 is, so it can’t be that bad, right?

No.

You know what the problem is, Mack. You said it yourself after plenty of games this year. You reiterated it after the Texas A&M game, when you said “we have the talent” and “it is the coaches” not even a week ago. You talked earlier in the year about talking to your coaches and telling them that if it was one player you can deal with them but if it is three players you must deal with the coach.

You know what the problem is. And it will not be easy dealing with it. But when you are the head football coach at the University of Texas, you are paid to deal with it, it is your responsibility to watch guard over one of the proudest legacies going in sports today.

Friendships will heal. Legacies and reputations will not.

Because if you choose not to make the changes needed, if you choose to believe that this was just a down year and this coaching staff has fixed it before and will fix it again, then there will be a lot more bad nights in Austin, Texas…and you might not be around to see them all.

On to the games...

USC -6.5 @ UCLA:

After watching USC lose to Notre Dame and only gain 261 yards of offense in the effort against an average Irish defense, you would probably have to handcuff Matt Barkley to the locker room bench to keep him out of this game, and even then he might pull a Houdini (or his brother) and get out there.

USC hasn’t lost to UCLA since 2006, and I don’t see that changing here.

USC 31 UCLA 16
ATS – USC
SU – USC

SMU v. Central Florida -9:

A little shine went off of SMU after an 8 win season last year, but the Mustangs still sit at 7-5 with a chance to do something they haven’t done since 1984…win a conference title.

It won’t be easy, as UCF was ranked before a loss to Southern Mississippi three weeks ago. UCF also has a legit defense, which is problematic for a SMU offense that has struggled at times this year.

UCF 27 SMU 21
ATS – SMU
SU – UCF

Florida State v. Virginia Tech -4:

These two teams are just about mirror images of each other statistically. FSU is 52nd nationally in offense, while Virginia Tech is 38th. FSU is 39th in defense while VT is 42nd. FSU is 11th in scoring defense, while Virginia Tech is 13th.

But, what Virginia Tech does have a decided advantage in is turnover margin, ranking first in the country. They also have the better running game, and should have the better crowd with the game in Charlotte and VT knowing that they would be here a couple of weeks ago.

Virginia Tech 28 Florida State 21
ATS – Virginia Tech
SU – Virginia Tech

Oregon -16.5 @ Oregon State:

After a mid-October victory over Arizona in the desert, the Beavers have hit a tailspin, losing 4 out of 6 and giving up 30.25 points per game in those losses.

But of course, this is the Civil War, where anything can happen, blah blah blah…

Lost in all of Oregon’s offensive success has been its defense, which was porous early in the season, but since a 52-31 win over Stanford on October 2nd, the Ducks have given up 30 points just once (at USC), and have held the opponent under 20 points three times.

Oregon State will need a big game from Katz and Rodgers to even have a chance.

Oregon 44 Oregon State 24
ATS – Oregon
SU – Oregon

Auburn -5 v. South Carolina:

These two teams played back in September, a game that South Carolina led going to the fourth quarter before the Tigers rallied for two touchdowns and won 35-27. Cam Newton ran for 176 yards and 3 touchdowns that day while throwing for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Stephen Garcia was sharp as well, throwing for 235 yards and 3 touchdowns, but there are questions about how good he will be this week with a left shoulder injury.

The key in this one is how Marcus Lattimore responds. The freshman only had 33 yards rushing in the last match-up, and if he puts up a similar effort, then Auburn strolls to Glendale. But if Lattimore has a game like he did against Tennessee and Florida later in the year, there is a chance for the Gamecocks. It won’t be easy as Auburn has the 10th best rush defense in the country, but if Lattimore gets free and opens up the passing lanes for Garcia, watch out.

Auburn 31 South Carolina 27
ATS – South Carolina
SU – South Carolina

Nebraska v. Oklahoma -6:

Another year, another trip to the Big 12 Championship game for the Oklahoma Sooners. This is the Sooners’ eight trip to the game, and they have won six of their previous trips.

The question in this game is the health of Oklahoma’s Demarco Murray and Nebraska’s Taylor Martinez. Oklahoma would be able to get over the loss of Murray, but take away Martinez and Nebraska turns into the largely ineffective offensive bunch that they were last season.

Oklahoma might not know how to win bowl games, but they own these games. OU wins easily.

Oklahoma 27 Nebraska 13
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for the NCAA’s new “Pay a Player’s Dad” policy.

The Week That Will Be (Thanksgiving 2010)

2010-11-23T23:07:00.002-06:00

Last Week: 2-3-1 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 29-38-5 (.433) ($1240) ATS 47-25 (.653) SU

What we learned last week:

We learned that Ohio State can keep motoring along and Terrelle Pryor doesn’t need to be great with that defense…

We learned that Houston Nutt can play some good football against LSU, as the Tigers score late to keep their BCS hopes alive…

We learned that Andrew Luck has a mean stiff-arm…

We learned that Oklahoma might be a bad road team, but all of that goes out the window when you travel to apathetic Waco…

We learned that Bo Pelini can blow a gasket because of a 16-2 penalty discrepancy between the Cornhuskers and Aggies, but the Aggies can only take advantage of that to the tune of a 3 point victory…

And finally, we learned that yes, it is possible for Texas to blow out an out-matched opponent once again.

Anyhow…

It is that time of year again, the time for turkey, dressing, football and getting high on Ambien and running your Cadillac Escalade into your neighbor’s tree while your wife runs after you shattering your windows with a five iron.

So on this day of Thanks, it is time for me to give thanks to all of you that make my life better each and every day:

To Cam Newton, thanks for taking over the headlines and covering up the fact that Texas has gone from the BCS National Championship Game to needing to win their last game in order to go to a crappy bowl game.

To Notre Dame, thanks for not killing anybody today.

To Deloss Dodds, thanks for saving me the money that it would take for me to travel to Los Angeles, Tempe, Palo Alto, Berkeley, Seattle, etc. and not going to Manhattan, Lawrence and Ames.

To Bo Pelini, thanks for making me realize that football really doesn’t make me angry at all…compared to you.

To Four Loko, thanks for the Oklahoma State tailgate shenanigans.

To Sofia Vergara, thanks for wearing those dresses on Modern Family.

To ABC, thanks for broadcasting in HD.

To Northwestern Football, thanks for letting us know what Wrigley Field looks like in November.

To Joe Paterno, thanks for letting us know what was on the site of Wrigley Field before it was built.

To Texas A&M, thanks for letting me re-live my high school days by being good again.

To The Old 97’s, thanks for a great album after a string of bad to mediocre ones.

To Wade Phillips, thanks for claiming that you had “as good of a record as Tom Landry” and verifying to everyone that you needed to be fired.

To the TSA, thanks for making public fondling okay and something we can all watch.

To Dancing With the Stars, thanks for keeping Bristol Palin on the show, giving America something to bitch about over those unimportant things such as, you know, the economy, national security and the new Congress.

To @chrissyteigen, thanks for the entertaining tweets.

To Sam Acho, thanks for the great play on the field, but more importantly for being someone on the team to look up to, as a two-time Academic All-American.

To Chykie Brown, thanks for the solid career and the 29 starts on teams that lost one game from 2008-2009.

To Curtis Brown, thanks for your 26 career starts, the touchdown against Oklahoma State last year and for your solid special teams play. We’ve had our share of problems back there, too, but we all know it wasn’t for a lack of trying. Most importantly, I hope your daughter is fully recovered.

To John Chiles, thanks for a career that was never boring and the teaching of the young receivers on the team this year.

To Dustin Earnest, thanks for the flexibility of playing all three linebacker positions and for the solid contributions to special teams.

To John Gold, thanks for keeping on kicking, and for the very good year this year.

To Kyle Hix, thanks for the 38 career starts and for the solid contributions all through your career.

To Michael Huey, thanks for the 20 career starts and solid contributions all through your career.

To Blaine Irby, thanks for trying to make it back if this is it. You had a bright future before the injury, and took it in stride and kept going despite the seriousness of the injury. If we see you next year, fantastic, but if not, thanks and good luck in everything you do.

To Eddie Jones, thanks for only missing two games in four years, and for sticking with it behind guys like Brian Orakpo and Sergio Kindle. You probably could have gone somewhere else and started more games, but you chose to stay here, and for that we are proud.

To James Kirkendoll, thanks for the 27 career starts and those two touchdowns against Texas A&M last year, and for being the most consistent receiver this year.

To Britt Mitchell, thanks for the conversion to tight end and the 11 career starts.

To Steve Moore, thanks for your contributions at guard and on special teams through your career.

To Jared Norton, thanks for fighting your way back from injury. You were one of my favorite players before the injury, but although the injury might have robbed you of a dominating end to your career, the perseverance and dedication to the organization will not go unnoticed by the Longhorn nation.

To Greg Smith, thanks for your versatility. Numerous injuries to other players and what not have forced you to play every single position on the offensive line and tight end, and I’m not sure that didn’t hinder your career. Your dedication is noticed and appreciated.

To Mark Fisher, Michael Summerville, Chris Torbert and Ryan Zych, thanks for walking on and showing the ultimate dedication to this team. Your efforts are never recognized, but the role is important and appreciated.

To Aaron Williams, thanks for being one of the best this program has seen if this is it. The interception against Oklahoma was the best I have ever seen last year, and the sack was a game changer. Again, if this is it, good luck at the next level, and if not, let’s kick some ass next year.

To Keenan Robinson, thanks for being a game changer if this is it. From Nebraska and Alabama last year to Oklahoma last year, you seemed to save the best for the largest stage, and it is much appreciated. If you are back next year, we’ll have a great rock in the middle of the defense, and if not, good luck at the next level.

To the Longhorn coaching staff, thanks for an outstanding run. I know we all like to be cynical and snarky, but the fact of the matter is that nobody else has done what we’ve done in the past ten years on this level, and for that we should all be proud. It might be time for a shake-up, but we all appreciate the good run that we’ve had and we know that times will once again be good in short time because of a lot of the people on this staff.

To Greg Davis, thanks for giving us one of the country’s best offenses for the past 12 years. The great run that we’ve had for that time period has been this program’s richest in terms of offensive success, and even though everyone likes to pretend that Vince Young and Colt McCoy came from spaceships, I know that it was hard work on your part and their part to make those relationships thrive and make them the special players that they were. It is probably time for some fresh ideas, so if this is it, thanks for your contributions and I appreciate the class and the humbleness you exhibited in the good times and bad.

To Sailor Ripley, thanks for giving me the opportunity to write for the best Longhorn site on all of the Internets, Barking Carnival. It means a lot to me to be recognized, and I hope that I have brought value to the site.

To Barking Carnival, thanks for giving me a vessel for my thoughts and for commenting on my columns each and every week. Being a writer, I think that every column I write sucks and it is good to know that my efforts are appreciated out there.

To the tailgate crew, thanks for another great season of camaraderie and good times. It wasn’t the best of seasons on the field, but our dedication and support never wavered. I can’t see my family as much as I would like to these days, and you guys provide me with a second family. Other than at home, I can’t imagine a better place to spend a holiday full of togetherness than with you guys underneath a tent in a state parking lot. You never know when it is going to end, so I’m going to enjoy the ride.
I hope that you all have a happy and joyous Thanksgiving holiday, but most of all I hope that you all stay safe, stay warm, eat well and that we beat the hell out of A&M.

On to the games...

Arizona @ Oregon -19.5:

This one has been a good one in recent years, with Oregon winning last year’s game in Tucson 44-41 in OT; Oregon winning 55-45 in 2008 and Arizona winning 34-27 in 2007 in the game that ended Dennis Dixon’s career at Oregon.

This year’s game could be more of the same, but Arizona hasn’t played well as of late, losing their last game at home to USC 24-21 and getting routed by Stanford 42-17 the week before that.

My brain tells me that Arizona will keep this close, but then I look at the fact that Oregon has blown out everyone that has come to Autzen this year, including Stanford, who is better than Arizona.

Oregon 47 Arizona 24
ATS – Oregon
SU – Oregon

Boise State -14 @ Nevada:

Lost in all the hoopla of Chris Petersen and Kellen Moore is the Boise State defense, which got its third shutout of the year against a solid Fresno State team and ranks second in the country behind TCU in total defense and ranks first in rushing defense, sacks and tackles for loss.

They will have their hands full with Nevada, who is led onto the field by three years plus starting quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Nevada would like nothing better than to ruin Boise State’s title hopes, after losing to Boise State by 11 points in 2009, 7 points in 2008 and 2 points in 2007.

Kaepernick has thrown for 7 touchdowns and no interceptions lifetime against Boise State (with two rushing touchdowns thrown in as well), so he’s not fearful of the mighty Broncos.

I think Kaepernick gets the job done here. Boise State has an a great run at it, but the Wolfpack knocks them off their pedestal.

Nevada 37 Boise State 34
ATS – Nevada
SU – Nevada

Auburn @ Alabama -4.5:

One team has two losses, while one has none, but the one with two losses is the decided favorite in this game.

There are a couple of reasons for that. First, Alabama has won the last two games in this series, including a 36-0 victory the last time these two teams played in Tuscaloosa.

Second, Auburn has been vulnerable on the road this season. They won by 3 at Mississippi State and Kentucky before winning by 20 at Mississippi but also giving up 31 points in the process.

It isn’t a secret that Auburn’s defense has been shaky, and now they have to face seasoned veterans Greg McElroy, Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson (most likely) and Julio Jones….and oh yeah face the best defense they will play all year.

And if none of that convinced you…Saban v. Chizik.

The Tide will roll.

Alabama 31 Auburn 24
ATS – Alabama
SU – Alabama

LSU @ Arkansas -3.5:

Another good rivalry game..on Rivalry Weekend of all things. Weird. Anyhow, the last time this game was decided by more than 5 points was 2004, when LSU beat Arkansas 43-14.

Since then it has been back and forth, with LSU winning 3 games and Arkansas 2. To even up that match-up Arkansas will have to do it on a pass defense only giving up 151 yards per game.

Arkansas has a good enough defense to keep LSU at bay, and a good enough offense to score on that defense. Add to it the game is in Little Rock and I think you have to go with Arkansas here.

Arkansas 28 LSU 24
ATS – Arkansas
SU – Arkansas

Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State -2.5:

Bedlam. It has been bedlam for Oklahoma State in recent years, with their most recent victory against Oklahoma coming in 2002 in Stillwater. They were supposed to compete in 2008 and lost by 20; in 2006 they were also supposed to compete and lost by 6.

Can the Cowboys avoid the Poke Choke and make their first ever Big 12 game?

I think so. I’ve watched both of these teams in almost every game they have played this season and Oklahoma State looks better. Brandon Weeden has been slightly better than Landry Jones (numbers very similar but Weeden has decided edge in passing efficiency). Justin Blackmon has been slightly better than Ryan Broyles (Broyles averages more receptions but Blackmon averages more yards 156-119 and 17 touchdowns to 12 touchdowns). Kendall Hunter has been better than Demarco Murray.

But of course none of that matters because they aren’t facing each other, it will come down to which defense can stop which offense…and I think in this situation, Oklahoma State’s will be better.

Oklahoma gave up 33 to Texas A&M. 36 to Missouri. 29 to Cincinnati. Oklahoma State’s offense is a lot better than all of those teams.

Oklahoma State, meanwhile, gave up 14 to Kansas and 16 to Texas. 14 to Kansas State. The OSU defense has been better as of late, and I think they do enough here to allow OSU to outscore Oklahoma.

Oklahoma State 38 Oklahoma 34
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Texas A&M -3 @ Texas:

The last time Texas was an underdog in this series? 1999. The last time they were a home underdog? 1998. The first two years of the Mack Brown era.

Texas A&M looks to win their third game against Texas in five years, and many would ask why not after the Aggies dominated Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Baylor and handled Nebraska last week, while Texas was losing to Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas State and Oklahoma State in that same time period.

The Aggies have the edge in offense, of course, with their rejuvenation being led by Ryan Tannehill, who has thrown for 1,300 yards and has a touchdown/interception rate of 10/3. Tannehill has thrown for 9 percentage points better than Garrett Gilbert, while throwing for 1.5 yards more per attempt as well.
The hope that the Horns have in this one comes from their defense, which is somehow still ranked 8th in the country, but who we have seen lit up by Oklahoma State, Baylor Kansas State and Oklahoma in recent weeks.

The Aggie defense is improved in this stretch as well, with Von Miller coming on after a slow start with five sacks in four games.

Looking at the numbers this one is going to be tough for the Horns. Contain Tannehill and Jeff Fuller, hold Cedric Gray to around or less than 100 yards, and they have a shot. Let anyone of those guys go wild, and it could be a long, cold night.

Texas A&M 34 Texas 21
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – Texas A&M

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for trips to Ames, Waco, Columbia and College Station.

The Week That Will Be (11.20.2010)

2010-11-17T22:07:00.000-06:00

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 27-35-4 (.435) ($1110) ATS 43-23 (.652) SU

What we learned last week:

We learned that Marcus Lattimore is fully healthy after he gouged the Gators for 248 total yards and three touchdowns…21 yards and two more touchdowns than the entire Gator offense…

We learned that Oregon’s offense can be stopped…if you fake more injuries than WWE’s Monday Night Raw. You might as well don a mask and steel chair, Tedford…

We learned that Auburn says “screw it we’ll just take the AP national championship”, thank you, continuing to play Cam Newton despite all the evidence that he will one day be Reggie Bushed. But I guess you can’t blame them at this point…

We learned that Baylor can score 30 points in one half, and do an impersonation of the Texas offense in the second half and lose to Texas A&M…

We learned that Tommy Tuberville’s Tech can do the same as Mike Leach’s Tech…go up to Norman and get their ass kicked…

And finally, we learned that Justin Blackmon > Aaron Williams, Brandon Weeden isn’t bad for a 40 year old and Four Loko makes the ass beating a little easier to take.

Anyhow…

Okay, let’s stop one thing right now.

As if the poor offensive performances weren’t already reminiscent of the Longhorns of the early 2000s, now we’re going to bring back the embarrassing way in which we treated our starting quarterback?

Are we really going to turn this into a Longhorn Fan base v. Garrett Gilbert kind of crap again?

Thankfully the more educated faction of our fan base hasn’t latched on to this mindset quite yet, but a quick scour around the Longhorn message boards and it is embarrassing how many people take their angst for the pathetic showing from the Longhorns and project it upon a 19 year old kid who has shown nothing but class in a year where very few of us can say that.
As if we didn’t already have the reputation of a spoiled, petulant child fan base that turns on their own on a dime, this season’s performance could go into the Smithsonian Natural Museum of Whininess.

Waahhh, Garrett Gilbert isn’t Vince Young or Colt McCoy!!!!11!!1!!

Well Boo-fucking-hoo.

Who is?

You’re talking about a quarterback that won the school’s first national championship in 35 years, and a quarterback that had four years of work and won the most collegiate games in history against a quarterback with less than a full season of experience surrounded by the worst collection of offensive talent in the Mack Brown era?

To quote a very hot chick in a Windows phone commercial, “really?”

Now, we can all agree that Garrett Gilbert hasn’t been adequate this season. The interceptions are too high (although 11 of those have come in three games), the signature throw that we’ll all remember hasn’t been there, and he probably should have been pulled in Manhattan to save his confidence if nothing else.

But I’m not going to blame a kid that spent all off-season learning a completely new offense than what he’s learned in his entire life, learned a new offense than what he learned last season, is also the leading rusher on the team because the running game has given him no help, and is throwing to receivers that look like they slam Four Loko on the sidelines.

But maybe that is just me.

And through it all, through the worst season that a lot of this fan base has ever had to endure, the guy has been nothing but class.

He’s blamed himself. Said he has to get better. Said that the team has to rally and get better. Said that they’ll keep working until they get it right.

He didn’t blame his teammates for dropping passes or not protecting him in the pocket, or for giving him a deficit to come back from. He didn’t pass blame to the coaches for not letting him do enough. He didn’t say that these things happen and if the worst thing that ever happens in life is he loses a football game he’s okay. He didn’t complain about the lofty expectations hoisted upon him from his first start.

Nope, he’s just promised to get better…and what more can you ask than that?

Garrett Gilbert didn’t forget how to play football when he stepped on the Forty Acres. He didn’t set all sorts of records in high school because he was woefully inaccurate and lacked field vision.

And he damn sure didn’t almost come back to win us the national championship last season because he was a poor quarterback.

Do you remember that fateful night at the Rose Bowl, ten months ago?

That night where all of our shoulders did a collective slump when Colt McCoy came out, when Gilbert couldn’t find his helmet, when the rest of the first half looked admittedly a lot like this year? Where we couldn’t move the ball to save our life, and Gilbert threw a couple of interceptions? When we were down 24-6 at halftime?

Well do you remember the second half, too? The half where Gilbert threw for 162 yards and two touchdowns, and completed seven out of eight passes and threw for 64 yards on the scoring drive that brought them to within 24-21? Do you remember that we had a chance to win a national championship with 90 yards and three minutes to go, and how he was pulling his arm back to pass to a wide-ass open Jordan Shipley streaking down the sidelines before being hit from the blind side?

All done against an Alabama defense that allowed only 166 yards passing per game last season and only 244 yards total. The Crimson Tide defense allowed 11 points per game last season. The only quarterbacks to throw for more yards against Alabama last season were Paul McCall (FIU), Stephen Garcia (USC), Jonathan Crompton (TN) and Tim Tebow (FL).

Gilbert didn’t talk after the game about how excited he was just to get the opportunity. He didn’t make excuses about how he was short-handed, only throwing 26 passes all year before that moment. He didn’t gush about how it was really neat to get out there on the field.

He talked about his turnovers and how they cost his team the national championship.

He needs to get better on the field. He needs to get better in the film room. He needs to progress from a thrower to a quarterback. He needs to be more vocal. He needs to be that leader and iron rod in the huddle that his two predecessors were.

But this is the guy that wanted to be a Longhorn when he was 7 years old, whose hero was Major Applewhite and didn’t even entertain the thought of going to any other school.

Maybe the coaches will open up the quarterback position to competition this Spring. That might even be good for Gilbert, to show him that nobody here can be anointed anything after a season like this. But you know what? He’ll win that job because he’s the best man for the job.

He is going to work his ass off in the off-season to get better, because he’s lived his whole life to be the starting quarterback for the University of Texas.

Jump off the bandwagon if you must, but you can sit right over there on the couch with the Vince Young doubters and the Colt McCoy doubters.

On to the games...

Ohio State -3 @ Iowa:

Iowa hasn’t beaten Ohio State since 2004, but came close last year when the Buckeyes won in OT 27-24. Terrelle Pryor was held in check that day, throwing for only 93 yards and rushing for 29.

Iowa has struggled as of late, losing to Northwestern for the third straight year last week and skating by Indiana the week prior.

Ohio State owns the month of November, and own the Big 10. They win here.

Ohio State 24 Iowa 13
ATS – Ohio State
SU – Ohio State

Mississippi @ LSU -16:

Jeremiah Masoli hasn’t been much of a pick-up for the Rebels this year, throwing for more than 200 yards only twice on the season and rushing for 100 yards twice as well. Add to that a defense that is allowing 35 points and 382 yards per game, and it isn’t hard to tell why Mississippi is at 4-6.

LSU has won nine games and lost by a touchdown to what many consider the best team in the country (Auburn). But I’m not sure they have the offense to run away and hide from Mississippi…if they haven’t given up already.

LSU 28 Mississippi 16
ATS – Mississippi
SU – LSU

Stanford -6.5 @ Cal:

Cal sits at 5-5 but have played well at home, holding Oregon to a season low 15 points last week and only 34 combined points in four other home games.

Stanford was held to a season low 17 points last week against Arizona State, which was 14 points below their previous season low. Jeff Tedford is 7-1 against Stanford in his career at Cal, but he hasn’t faced a Stanford team such as this one.

Stanford 28 Cal 14
ATS – Stanford
SU – Stanford

Oklahoma -7.5 @ Baylor:

Which Oklahoma team shows up here? The one that is 1-2 on the road this year, with that one a two point win over 3-6 Cincinnati, or the one that can blow Texas Tech and Florida State out at home with ease?

It isn’t like Waco is an intimidating place to play at all, but they did roll up 500 yards in a loss to Texas A&M and 560 against Oklahoma State…so they’ll move the ball.

I think RGIII and Finley keep it a close game, but OU wins out in the end.

Oklahoma 34 Baylor 31
ATS – Baylor
SU – Oklahoma

Nebraska -2.5 @ Texas A&M:

The Aggies are feeling it with a four game winning streak under their belts, and this will be the biggest game in College Station in several years as it will be a good test of how far this team has progressed this year.

Nebraska can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game here. I’m interested to see how Texas A&M and Tannehill do against a top notch defense, as they haven’t seen one in this stretch (Kansas 91st, Texas Tech 115th, Oklahoma 60th, Baylor 97th).

Should be a good game, but Nebraska is better.

Nebraska 31 Texas A&M 23
ATS – Nebraska
SU – Nebraska

Florida Atlantic @ Texas -21:

Sigh.

Who knew that a game against Florida Atlantic would turn out to be so important? Can the Horns snap a four game skid and give themselves a shot at bowl eligibility on Thanksgiving night?

And how depressing is it that we even have to think about that…or root against it if you are one of those types.

Anyhow, it is a bit hard to get a grip on Florida Atlantic. They only lost by 13 to Michigan State earlier in the year, throwing for 256 yards and holding the Spartans to 142 in the process. On the other hand, they’ve lost to 3-7 North Texas and beat 2-8 Western Kentucky and 2-8 Louisiana Lafayette by one point the past two weeks.

They have the nine returning starters on defense and three seniors in the secondary, so they will play some defense on you, allowing more than 31 points only once this year.

I’d like to think that this is the game where Texas figures it out and shows that they are interested in going to a bowl, but the problems here seem much deeper than what can be fixed in a week, even against a team that lost to North Texas.

Texas 24 Florida Atlantic 13
ATS – Florida Atlantic
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for stocking up on Four Loko like Nucky Thompson.

The Week That Will Be (11.13.2010)

2010-11-11T01:10:00.000-06:00

Last Week: 5-1 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 25-31-4 (.446) ($890) ATS 39-21 (.650) SU

What we learned last week:

We learned that Nick Saban needs to quit going to the beach during this bye weeks…with the loss to LSU Saban is now 16-14 in games after a bye week in his career…

We learned that Andrew Luck is still really, really good…

We learned that TCU might be the best team in the country, as they rolled Utah, out-gaining them by 337 yards…

We learned that Baylor might have been satisfied with a win over Texas, as they let Oklahoma State gain 725 yards and hardly looked like a team of “destiny”…

We learned that Oklahoma needs to work on their goal line offense in practice this week, and Bobby Stoops does not like leaving the confines of Norman…

And finally, we learned that we need to use our power and influence to get Kansas State kicked out of the conference.

Anyhow…

We talked in this space last week about not letting William Powell beat you on kick-off returns, and then we talked about stopping the one player that they had, Daniel Thomas.

All of that was out the window in the first minute of the game.

And we were wrong, they had two players to watch out for. Never in the modern era of football has a team ever had to stop two players.

I wish I could pinpoint what was wrong with this thing this year, but the offense stinks, the defense isn’t much better, the special teams are defunct and frankly it appears that the team has given up…which scares me to death.

Mack Brown sat there this week and told us that the team gave a great effort, and if that was a great effort we are REALLY in trouble, because if that was a great effort and we get down 39-0 to a team that will finish 7-5 in a weak conference…our recruiting efforts for the last four years have been a massive failure.

I wish I could answer why this coaching staff thought it was prudent to try to force Garrett Gilbert, a master of the spread offense, into the Chris Simms offense, or why they thought that we were a running team with three average to below average running backs, or why they thought this defense was the best in the Mack Brown era when we have major holes at all three levels, but the guys with the press passes don’t choose to ask those questions in their allotted time.

Nope, what we have here is a lost year in Texas football, one in which likely nothing will be earned, but hopefully a lot will be learned.

But enough about that…usually this time of the year we are fretting about who so and so plays this week, and if we have enough Sagarin points to get to #2, but this year other programs are worrying about that while we are debating how long it takes for a back-up quarterback to warm-up.

Let’s take a look at the potential BCS Championship teams:

OREGON

Remaining Schedule: @ California, Arizona, @ Oregon State

If the Ducks win out they are likely in. Cal has been pretty good at home, averaging 47 points per game in wins over UC-Davis, Colorado, UCLA and Arizona State, but just lost Riley Skinner, who is replaced by the seldom used Brock Mansion. But still, Oregon still hasn’t won in Berkley since 2001.

Arizona has had a solid year, but has been skating by…and won’t beat Oregon at Autzen.

Boise State fans will try to talk you into Oregon State being a really good team, but they’re just okay, and face Southern Cal and Stanford the week before they play Oregon. Will they have anything left in the tank? But still, this is always an entertaining game, with Oregon winning the last two by a combined score of 102-71.

AUBURN

Remaining Schedule: Georgia, @ Alabama, SEC Title Game

Auburn has the most intriguing games left this year, with the Cam Newton saga threatening to push the Dallas Cowboys and Brett Favre off of the front pages of the newspaper. IF Cam Newton plays the entire season, it should be a good one, as Auburn hasn’t beaten Georgia in five years, the Iron Bowl is always a good one and Urban Meyer leaking, er, Urban Meyer, ahem, allegedly leaking the stories about Newton leads to the revenge game of the decade in the SEC Title Game.

Grab a beer, demand money from your friends to have you at their Auburn watching parties and enjoy some good old Southern dummy football.

TCU

Remaining Schedule: San Diego State, @ New Mexico

TCU is a 27 point favorite against a decent San Diego State team this weekend, and will be a bigger favorite the next weekend, so they ain’t losing. If Auburn or Oregon drops one, TCU will be there ready to take their bid, and I’m not sure if they don’t deserve one outright.

The Frogs own the nation’s #1 defense for the second year in a row (after finishing #2 the year before), also own the nation’s best scoring defense, the nation’s #8 offense and are led on the field by a senior quarterback that has thrown 18 interceptions in three years.

Talk about their schedule all you want, but they have given up 23 points since the end of September and dominate games like we haven’t seen since 2005 Texas/USC.

BOISE STATE

Remaining Schedule: @ Idaho, Fresno State, @ Nevada, Utah State

Boise must have felt they needed the attention late in the year, because they have three straight Friday night games, which might be all that you need to know about the seriousness level of their program. Seriously, Friday nights are reserved for Euless Trinity dominating, no?

Boise might have an interesting slate left. Idaho won’t be much of a challenge, as the Vandals gave up 844 yards to Nevada last week. Fresno could probably challenge the Broncos at home, but must travel to Boise.

Nevada might be interesting. The Wolfpack can kill the clock (#2 in rushing offense in the country), can somewhat play defense (#19 in rush defense, #29 in sacks) and have a senior quarterback Colin Kaepernick that has 7 touchdowns to 0 interceptions in three career games against Boise, all losses, but all close losses (69-67 in 2007, 41-34 in 2008 and 44-33 in 2009).

Then, if Boise gets past Nevada they must play Utah State…yeah.

I suppose you also have the option of a one loss team such as LSU jumping TCU or Boise State, but I think if that happens we’ll all have to go drink ourselves into a stupor at the thought of Les Miles owning two national championship rings and we’ll all miss the game while in rehab anyhow.

So let’s not think about that.

On to the games...

South Carolina @ Florida -6.5:

South Carolina might have “Baylor beating Texas” disease, as the Gamecocks are 2-2 since beating Alabama, and those two losses were lackluster wins over listless Vanderbilt and Tennessee.

Florida, meanwhile, is headed the other way, as the last two weeks they might have found their missing offense. After realizing that John Brantley was a drop back passer forced to play in a option happy offense (stop me if you’ve heard this somewhere), the Gators substituted new quarterbacks in to run the old Tebow plays and left Brantley to do what he does best…pass. The Gators have rolled up 89 points in two weeks as a result.

South Carolina and Steve Spurrier play the Gators tough from time to time, but I think Florida is gelling at the right time.

Florida 31 South Carolina 20
ATS – Florida
SU – Florida

Oregon -20 @ California:

Oregon took a week off last week, only beating Washington 53-16, but this week they’ll be serious and do some damage.

Brock Mansion is simply no match for this Oregon team, as he threw two interceptions and plenty of incomplete passes last week in a close win over Washington State.

Oregon knows the entire nation is looking for them to slip up, and they won’t do it here.

Oregon 45 California 17
ATS – Oregon
SU – Oregon

Georgia @ Auburn -7:

The game of intrigue for the week, and it has little to do with the fact that Georgia has won four out of five and has all to do with Cam Newton and how he will handle the adversity…or if he will play at all?

Well, at “submit post” time, Cam Newton is still eligible, so we’re going to go with that. Georgia has been resurgent, but they have done so against a weaker schedule, beating Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky and Idaho State in those four games.

The key here is whether or not Georgia can get their running game which has fueled their resurgence going. Get it going and you can keep Cam Newton off the field, shorten the clock and hope that Auburn starts pressing. Get stuffed, or worse fall down early, and the Bulldogs will have to rely on Aaron Murray, who threw three touchdowns against Florida in a similar situation, but also threw three interceptions.

Auburn 28 Georgia 24
ATS – Georgia
SU – Auburn

Texas A&M -3 @ Baylor:

You look at the match-ups here and they’re close, but the key here is how does Baylor regroup and get out there after getting pounded by Oklahoma State, and more importantly, how does Texas A&M handle success?

The last time Robert Griffin faced Texas A&M, the Bears won handily, 41-21 in Waco, as RGIII threw for 241 yards and two touchdowns and Jay Finley ran for 116 yards and a touchdown. I don’t expect that lopsided score, but I do expect Baylor to get out on top.

Baylor 31 Texas A&M 27
ATS – Baylor
SU – Baylor

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma -15.5:

The home team has won the last six in this series, and the last time Tech traveled to Norman they were destroyed 65-21 in a game that was 42-7 at halftime. Neither of these teams are nearly as good as those respective squads, but Oklahoma is closer.

In conference play, Tech has lost by two touchdowns to Iowa State, barely squeaked by a Colorado team that has already fired their coach and gave up 623 yards to the Aggies.

Oklahoma wins, and they win large.

Oklahoma 48 Texas Tech 14
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Oklahoma State -5.5 @ Texas:

Texas has won 12 straight in this series, the last loss coming in…1997. Where have we heard that one before?

They haven’t always followed conventional standards, there were the big comebacks in 2004, 2005 and 2007, there were the ass kickings in 2001, 2003, 2006 and 2009, and there were the nail biters in 2002 and 2008, but they always ended up with Texas winning the game and Oklahoma State fans shaking their heads as the “visitors” won another one.

Well as hard as it is to say when a team has beaten the other 12 straight times, this one would be the most shocking of all of those, as Texas enters this one at 4-5, reeling with losses in four of their last five games and a team in disarray, while Oklahoma State rolls into town with an 8-1 record and the third best offense in the country.

So what do you have to hope for as a Texas fan, in addition to the 12 game winning streak?

Oklahoma State is so so on the road. The Cowboys dominate at home, averaging 50.8 points per game in Stillwater, but ease up a bit on the road, only averaging 37 points per game (still above what Texas has scored in any game this season, mind you). But that does include a game against Louisiana-Lafayette where the Cowboys trailed at the half, 21-17.

The Cowboys give up almost as many yards as they get. Oklahoma State is 113th in the country in pass defense, giving up 272 yards per game through the air, so if Texas can catch the ball and throw the ball to the right color jersey, there is a chance to get something here. Taylor Martinez threw for 323, Jerrod Johnson threw for 409 and Corey Robinson from Troy threw for 272, so there will be plenty of open receivers if Texas can find them.

93% of the public money and the line is going down. Your guess is as good as mine, but somebody out there knows something?

In a normal year with a normal Texas offense, this game is very winnable. Yes, Oklahoma State is good, but as Nebraska showed you can out-score them. But we all know this isn’t a normal year, and it is going to take a very, very, VERY abnormal output from this offense to keep up with the Cowboys.

Or perhaps I’m wrong, and the defense decides to play up to their billing as the “best defense in the Mack Brown era” and holds Oklahoma State to say, 24 points…

So you’re saying we have a chance.

Let’s just say I hope I’m pleasantly surprised.

Oklahoma State 38 Texas 21
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for airplane banners to show we are really, really spoiled.

The Week That Will Be (11.06.2010)

2010-11-03T23:14:00.002-05:00

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 20-30-4 (.400) ($1240) ATS 35-19 (.648) SU

What we learned last week:

We learned that Michigan State was indeed a paper tiger, but thanks for playing…

We learned that Cam Newton is the next Vince Young, or the next to next to next one after five other guys have been called that in the last five years…

We learned that I should have trusted my first impressions of Oregon…I’m not sure anyone beats that team…

We learned that it took a little while for the Oklahoma State offense to wake up, but they finally remembered that Kansas State has a bad defense and fed the ball to Kendall Hunter to the tune of 143 yards…

We learned that Nebraska can blast Missouri, who blasted Oklahoma, who blasted Texas, who blasted…Nebraska?

And finally, we learned that this Texas team just isn’t that good.

Anyhow…

Mack Brown:

"I didn't see as much fun as I thought I would," he says. "We've got a little arrogance about this bunch right now. I shouldn't have said this could be the best defense we've ever had because right now we're a long way from that. I talked about the physical run game; we need to stop talking about that.

"How much do you like being at Texas and like being a football player?" Brown continues." Some of you like being at Texas more than you've earned the right to be here.

"I was embarrassed for myself. I was embarrassed for some of my coaches, not all. I was embarrassed for some of you players, not all. … It was kind of embarrassing.

"Boy, I'm scared. I'm worried about this team. I'm worried about it.

"We've got some entitlement in this room. Got to get that fixed. Got some selfishness in this room. Got to get that fixed. This isn't Texas football.”

Boy Mack was really upset after that loss to Baylor last week, wasn’t he?

Nope, this passage is from the Pat Forde profile on Mack Brown written [i]after the season opener against Rice that captured the post-game speech from Mack after the 34-17 Texas win.

But as the clock ticked down to triple zeroes and I filtered out of DKR with the rest of the orange-clad fans last Saturday, upset that I wouldn’t be getting the Pluckers Five Wings Free coupon for the third straight game, I just came to the realization that we’re just not that good.

Groundbreaking, I know.

Perhaps it was a lot of the “don’t give a damn” factor that cost us against Iowa State, perhaps even against UCLA, but Baylor was just a better team than we were.

UCLA has viable running backs that fit into their run first attack. Baylor had the better quarterback, the better running back, the better wide receiver and the better offensive line on the field on Saturday.

Do we have better talent than those teams? Probably. We had better recruiting classes, but I’m not sure there is any player on offense that is any better than he was last year, or the year before for that matter.

But even if we do have better talent, they have a better team.

And there is a difference.

The offense still hasn’t scored more than 24 points since the mid-September win over Wyoming, and the defense has given up at least 28 points in every loss this season. For an offense that is struggling, the defense is not picking up the slack, instead choosing to give up back breaking plays at the wrong times (first drive of the second half against UCLA, falling down 14-0 to Oklahoma, giving up two touchdowns in five minutes to Iowa State bridging the third and fourth quarters and finally, allowing Baylor three touchdowns in the final 20 minutes of the game on Saturday).

Now a program that ten months ago was in the national title game is struggling to become bowl eligible, with a fourth-tier bowl the prize even if they do attain that goal.

Hell I’d just settle for some Pluckers coupons at this point.

But enough about that, let’s take a look at some teams that are doing well. As we are nearing the end of the regular season, it is time to see where teams might end up in the post-season, with HornMafia’s Bowl Predictions.

The Worst Idea Associated With the Texas Program Bowl: University Co-op Statues vs. Zombie Nation
Look. The statues (go here if you have no idea what I’m talking about) are awful, and makes our team look like they’re scared shitless (insert punchline here) but they were probably just an ill-conceived idea by someone who wanted to shave a little money off the budget.

But the decision to play Zombie Nation before kick-offs was a deliberate decision by someone that said, “Hey you know that drum cadence that the band does, and then a lot of the crowd starts jumping up and down? Nah, screw that, we’re going ZOMBIE NATION baby!”

We’re not Wisconsin, where we have no tradition thus we can play crappy techno music, everyone waves their glow sticks, downs a little Red Bull and nobody cares. Darrell K. Royal walked these sidelines, he doesn’t want to hear ZOMBIE NATION when he attends games. Just ask yourself if Darrell would like it and move on.

The Bad First Year Coaching Job Bowl: Kansas vs. Notre Dame

Say what you want about Turner Gill and his team’s 2-6 record and the fact that they haven’t scored more than 16 points in five weeks and the fact that the 28 given up to Iowa State last weekend was an improvement over the 159 points his team gave up in the previous three games, but at least his actions didn’t lead to a poor kid’s death.

Just saying.

The I Can Always Get A Job At McDonald’s Bowl: Jerrod Johnson vs. Jake Locker

Jerrod Johnson was supposedly the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year coming into the season and has been benched in favor of a wide receiver, while Jake Locker was a lock to be the first overall pick in the draft and now has to fake an injury so he doesn’t plummet out of the first day.
Perhaps guys should have to, I don’t know, earn these titles before they greatness is bestowed upon them?
[
b]The We Have To Think About This The Rest Of Our Lives Bowl: Nebraska Fans vs. Themselves[/b]
20-13. Just think about that mild October day if you guys end up going undefeated the rest of the way, because there isn’t any way in hell that any pollster will elevate a Nebraska team that lost to 6-6 Texas or whatever the Longhorns end up at.

Just think about it on the way out the door, Nebraska.

The Elevated Idea Of Your Program Bowl: Minnesota v. Minnesota

When Tim Brewster was fired earlier this year, I think we all thought, “okay, they’ll get some coordinator from a BCS school and move on”, but nope, here are the three names that Minnesota has targeted:

Chris Petersen. Jim Harbaugh. Gary Patterson.

Someone kindly remind Minnesota that they haven’t been a national power since the pre-Hitler days, and that their last outright Big 10 title came in
1941 shortly before the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. Thanks.

The We’ve Never Been Here Before Bowl: Robert Griffin III vs. Outlandish Statements

Okay I know this is uncharted territory for Baylor, but Robert. C’mon.

“A lot of people want to talk about teams of destiny. I think this is one of them.”

Teams of “destiny” have shots at the national title. They don’t lose games by 35 points to other contenders. Team of “destiny” don’t drop games to 4-4 squads in mid-season.

You’re having a very nice season, hell even a great season. But destiny? Leave that for strip club DJs to announce.

The Dallas Football Classic Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Illinois

The Aggies finally return to the Cotton Bowl, although it isn’t the Cotton Bowl anymore. But that won’t stop their webmaster from calling it the Cotton Bowl until conference rivals point out their error.

The Pinstripe Bowl: Texas vs. Syracuse

The Pinstripe Bowl officials never dreamed of landing Texas in their bowl game, but they could have dreamed about the 25 degree temperatures at kick-off. Justin Tucker knocks one off the monuments to win as time expires and Texas avenges the 1993 tie and 1992 loss to Syracuse…but not the 2003 Final Four, because that would be just silly.

The Texas Bowl: Kansas State vs. Northwestern

Purple purple purple.

The Holiday Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon State

Oklahoma State tries to halt a two game bowl losing streak, while Oregon State looks happy to see the Oklahoma State defense after facing those tough Pac-10 defenses all season.

The Insight Bowl: Baylor vs. Iowa

It is high powered offense vs. high powered defense, and we all lose because it’s freaking Baylor vs. Iowa playing in the Insight Bowl.

The Alamo Bowl: Missouri vs. Arizona

Nick Foles returns to Central Texas…and I can’t think of much else too compelling about this match-up.

The Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Arkansas

We have a rematch of that thrilling 10-3 Oklahoma win in the 2002 Cotton Bowl “Classic”, but it is okay because we have effectively quarantined all
Sooner and Razorback fans for a weekend away from the rest of us.

The Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh

Nebraska might win the last Big 12 title, but the joke is on them as they have to play Pittsburgh in a game that people in Pittsburgh won’t even watch…and then to top it all off Bo Pelini gets out-coached by Dave Wannstedt. Okay not really.

The BCS Championship Game: Alabama vs. Oregon

The non-BCS schools bitch, but it is great uniforms versus bad uniforms, old versus new in a horribly named stadium. The BCS powers that be pit Boise State and TCU against each other to see if they have the power to crash the Internet.

On to the games...

Alabama -6.5 @ LSU:

Alabama gave up 35 points to South Carolina three games ago, but in the other games they have given up 75 points combined. I have a hard time seeing LSU scoring enough to win here, but do expect a tight, hard fought defensive battle.

Alabama 20 LSU 14
ATS – LSU
SU – Alabama

Arizona @ Stanford -9.5:

Arizona won this one 43-38 last year in Tucson, but Stanford is a better team than they were at this point last year. The Wildcat defense is stout, only giving up 286 yards and 14 points per game.

I look for Arizona to keep it tight here, but Andrew Luck is a machine.

Stanford 34 Arizona 27
ATS – Arizona
SU – Stanford

TCU -4.5 @ Utah:

Ah yes, a battle of #4 and #6 in the country, and about 99% of the country isn’t going to get it on TV. Gotta love these small conferences.

Despite the lack of TV coverage, this should be a great game, as TCU brings the country’s #1 scoring defense and #9 scoring offense, while Utah brings the country’s #6 scoring defense and #3 scoring offense.

I can certainly see Utah coming out and putting everything together here, but I think TCU seems to be on a mission this year (they haven’t given up more than 7 points since a 41-24 win over SMU on September 24th.

TCU keeps their national title hopes alive.

TCU 27 Utah 14
ATS – TCU
SU – TCU

Baylor @ Oklahoma State -7.5:

The question here is can Baylor get up for this game a week after knocking off Texas in Austin? Oklahoma State will be ready, especially getting Justin Blackmon back from his one game suspension.

Baylor has yet to win in Stillwater in Big 12 play, with their last trip up there a 34-6 loss in 2008.

Look for OSU to take care of things in their building.

Oklahoma State 41 Baylor 31
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Oklahoma -3.5 @ Texas A&M:

With the exception of the 2008 game, the Sooners have had trouble in College Station, not too much trouble, mind you, since they are 4-1 there, but the other three wins were by a margin of 7 points or less.

And of course we all know by now Oklahoma’s troubles away from home, racking up a 22-18 record on the road compared to a 35-1 record at home since 2005.

Mike Sherman made the switch to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and it has paid dividends, as Tannehill has thrown for 629 yards and has 7 touchdowns (half of Jerrod Johnson’s total) to only 1 interception (to Johnson’s 9).

All of that, combined with Oklahoma’s troubles on defense this year, and I think that Oklahoma goes down again.

Texas A&M 34 Oklahoma 30
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – Texas A&M

Texas -3.5 @ Kansas State:

We all know the Longhorns’ troubles against Kansas State. With half of the fanbase on depression medication I’m not going to rehash any of that…except for 2002.

That was another beleaguered offense, statistically the second worst in the Mack Brown era to this one, and they also had to travel up to Manhattan, Kansas…and we’re also 3.5 point favorites.

It wasn’t a pretty victory, as Chris Simms only threw for 184 yards and the Longhorns ran for 46 yards on 32 carries. BJ Johnson was the lone bright spot on offense, as he brought in 4 catches for 132 yards and a touchdown.

On defense, the Longhorns held Darren Sproles to 136 yards on 20 carries, while Ell Roberson also ran for 76 while throwing for 102.

The Longhorns won that game when Marcus Tubbs blocked a 36 yard field goal attempt, and while I certainly hope it doesn’t come down to anything that dramatic, this is the type of game that Texas is going to have to play to win this game.

Daniel Thomas is the real deal, and for a defense that has had trouble with bottling up running backs this season, he’s the best we’ve seen, averaging 124.5 yards per game and 5.08 a carry. Kansas State doesn’t have much of a passing game (89th in the country) and doesn’t really run the ball with anyone else (William Powell is their second leading rusher at 27.5 yards per game) and don’t have a receiving threat (Aubrey Quarles is their best at 95th in the country with 4.12 receptions a game), so Thomas is literally their offense.

In their five wins, Thomas is averaging 147 yards per game, in their losses, he’s averaging 94.67 yards.

Stop him and you win.

So, theoretically, if our defense is as good as everyone keeps reassuring us it is, it shouldn’t be a problem to stop one guy, right?

As for the offense, if you can’t move the ball against Kansas State you have problems. Gone are the days of that feared KSU defense, as they rank dead last in FBS in rushing defense, giving up 228.5 yards per game.

They gave up 213 last week to Oklahoma State, 279 the week before against Baylor, 103 to Kansas, 451 to Nebraska, 252 to UCF…you get the point.

Against the pass they’re better, but still not great, ranking 85th in the country in sacks and 58th in pass defense.

If there is ever a time for this offense to show some signs of life, this is it.

We’ll see.

One thing you do have to watch out for, if you are able to score, is that William Powell is first in the country in kickoff returns, averaging 33.2 yards per return.

I’d like to say that Texas is Texas and comes out here and wipes the floor with a less talented opponent, but the fact that we’re not very good up there, and the fact that we’re not a very good football ourselves, I’m skeptical.

But the superior talent can’t be kept down too long….right? Right? *crickets chirping*

Texas 20 Kansas State 17
ATS – Kansas State
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Pinstripe Bowl tickets.

The Week That Will Be (10.30.2010)

2010-10-27T23:57:00.002-05:00

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 3-3 SU
For the Year: 18-26-4 (.409) ($1020) ATS 31-17 (.646) SU

What we learned last week:

We learned that with a road game at Michigan the toughest test the rest of the way for Wisconsin, they will really be cussing that loss to Michigan State earlier in the year…

We learned that everyone in the country can ask at one time, “How did UCLA beat Texas in Austin?” and then 48 hours later they say, at one time, “Oh yeah…”

We learned that the Cam Newton For Heisman train is picking up steam, and if that excites anyone outside the state of Alabama congratulations…

We learned that Justin Blackmon continues the long tradition of Oklahoma State wide receivers making bad decisions…and we learned that yes it is possible to throw for more than 100 yards on Nebraska…

We learned that Bob Stoops will punt late in the game because he has so much confidence in his defense that he doesn’t want to lose by double digits…

And finally we learned that yes, Texas, that other team has scholarship players as well.

Anyhow…

When Gabriel blows his horn I know things may not go my way…
- The Old 97’s Here’s To The Halcyon

No kidding.

Of course not even in the deeper realms of my brain did I ever think that Iowa State would beat a team in Austin that just nine months ago was playing in the national championship game, but the reality is that it happened, and this team is in deep trouble.

Let’s just hope that it isn’t the program that is in trouble.

There is a difference.

Shame on me for being arrogant enough to not even give Iowa State the dignity of breaking down the match-ups last week, but when you lose your last two games by a combined score of 120-27, I put the chances of the Cyclones coming into Austin and stealing a victory at about .5 percent.

But they didn’t come into Austin and steal a victory, they earned it, and they kicked our ass up and down the field.

All of their guys beat the man lining up across from them. Their coaching staff looked at the film from the UCLA and Oklahoma losses and actually came up with the novel idea to incorporate some of those principles to their game plan for this week.

Craig Way was surprised that Iowa State came out in a hurry-up offense, one that they hadn’t run all year. Got it from Oklahoma. Those 199 rushing yards? Mostly on plays stolen from the UCLA playbook.

Mack Brown said all of the right things in his post-game press conference, and reiterated them in his Monday press conference. He talked about how the cocky and arrogant attitude that permeated the team before the game “scared him to death” and that he tried to get the message across to the team all week about how anyone in the Big 12 can jump up and bite you.

He mentioned that the coaching staff educated the team on the city of Ames, their school colors and mascot, because Iowa State was an unfamiliar opponent from that wasteland that is the Big 12 North.

Perhaps his coaching staff should have been coming up with a viable game plan.

An offense that is on pace to be the worst offense since the 1991 squad led by David McWilliams went back to the horizontal passing game that has gotten them absolutely nowhere this season. Gone was the innovation from the Nebraska game plan, back was the first through four pages of the Texas playbook that have been dog-eared since 1998.

The Cyclones had given up 1,078 passing yards (nearly 2/3 of a mile) in the month of October and this coaching staff thought that the best plan of action would be to nickel and dime them up the field.

More like peso and peso.

A Cyclone offense that the week before against Oklahoma (their worst defense in the Bob Stoops era) managed 10 first downs, 183 yards and zero points grabbed a 14-3 lead in Austin in the first half.

And don’t give me this “the defense was tired because of the offensive ineptitude” load of garbage.

Iowa State, dude. Iowa State.

Somewhere out there at least one Texas fan has criticized Greg Davis after every single game of the Mack Brown Era, but for some reason Will Muschamp gets a pass.

Where is this “best defense of the Mack Brown Era” that we were supposedly going to see this year?

Rice, a team that has averaged 22.5 points this year, put up 17 on Texas. Wyoming grabbed yet another first half lead. Texas Tech was held in check, but this is the worst Tech team in years. Oklahoma had a 14-0 lead in Dallas before most had downed their last wax paper cup of beer. Nebraska was impressive…but Saturday was a trainwreck.

It is time to admit that this year has been a colossal failure from every member of this coaching staff. Not individual coaches on any one side of the ball. All of them.

But yes, if we must pick a villain this offense has been abhorrent. Appalling. Atrocious. Beastly. Disastrous. Ghastly. Harrowing. Vile.

The offense is averaging 23.6 points per game, which would be a full 10 points per game lower than the next worst offense in the Greg Davis/Mack Brown tenure, the 2002 team that averaged 33.76 points per game and went through a five game stretch in the middle of the season where they didn’t score more than 27 points in any one game.

This team hasn’t scored more than 24 points since Wyoming in week two, a span of five games.

Not one single running back has stepped up over the course of the season. The same could be said about the receiver corps. The offensive line has been awful.

And Garrett Gilbert has not been good…but at least he has the excuse of youth.

They haven’t been helped by a coaching staff that thought that this team had a stable of running backs that was good enough to run the Alabama offense, despite the 1,099 combined rushing yards between the three of them a year ago. The staff spent the entire off-season implementing an offense built around a power attack when they have a soft offensive line leading the way. An entire off-season spent implementing an offense that goes against everything your quarterback has learned in his football life.

So here we are, a team without an identity on Halloween weekend, a 4-3 record in the books and not a “sure thing” win the rest of the way.

Don’t you dare look past Florida Atlantic after this past weekend.

Gone are the goals of the national championship, the Big 12 Championship, the Big 12 South championship.

All we are left with are Texas state title hopes.

Print the t-shirts!

It would be one thing if this was a young team that was in a transition year, depending on youth at most positions, but as we’ve gone through before that simply isn’t the case.

And I don’t care if we were lining up a team of sophomores and freshmen, with the accolades that these recruiting class get they should be able to beat Iowa State in Austin.

So what are we left with? A program that is at a crossroads.

I’m not fearful of a Miami or Florida State-like drop-off here. The team still has multitudes of talent at key positions on both sides of the ball, and more is coming in every year.

I am worried about a coaching staff that seems to be complacent, one that much like a tenured college professor isn’t worried about the ramifications of not performing up to par on his job.

I’m worried about a team that for the second or third time in the past five years has the attitude that just because they played in a national championship game as an underclassman that they’ll get back there again just by showing up to the stadium on Saturday.

The problems are fixable. Garrett Gilbert will be fine. The talent pipeline is still very viable, full of talented, hungry guys that want the same success that the others before them have achieved, guys like Malcolm Brown who would start on Saturday against Baylor if he was afforded eligibility a year early.

But it is going to take a lot of hard work, and it isn’t going to happen overnight.

It is going to take a player leadership component that this team does not have right now.

And frankly, it might take some new coaches in certain positions.

But getting angry and getting productive are two different things.

We need more of the latter.

On to the games…

Michigan State @ Iowa -6.5:

In the few years that I’ve been doing this column, I’m pretty sure that I’ve written about Iowa more times this year than the other years combined. Does that mean the Big 10 is relevant again?

Debate that one among yourselves, but what isn’t debatable is that Michigan State is having a hell of a season, but aren’t we all kind of waiting for the other shoe to drop with this team? Obviously Vegas does if they’re making them almost a touchdown underdog against two loss Iowa.

The Spartans don’t do any one thing great, their offense is above average, their defense is above average, they do takeaway more balls than they giveaway, but I watch a lot of college football and I couldn’t tell you much about them.

This is the time of the year where teams start to look ahead and think, “if we beat so and so, then we have these teams at home….we can do this!”

Or not.

Iowa 24 Michigan State 21
ATS – Michigan State
SU – Iowa

Auburn -7 @ Mississippi:

The same principle applies to Auburn here, but they do do a few things great, namely run the football with Cam Newton…and Cam Newton.

The problem with Cam Newton left and Cam Newton right and Cam Newton straight ahead is that some team is going to figure you out…can that be Mississippi?

The Rebels gave up 197 rushing yards to Arkansas last week, but held Alabama to 100 yards rushing on 34 carries the week before, and while they didn’t have the offense to keep up with Alabama that night, I think we can all agree that Auburn doesn’t have the Crimson Tide defense.

No, it won’t be the fourth straight week that #1 goes down, but Houston Nutt always manages at least one great game a season.

Auburn 34 Mississippi 31
ATS – Mississippi
SU – Auburn

Oregon -7 @ USC:

Okay, I spent all last weekend telling my buddies that Oregon was going undefeated…but this one has me re-thinking that.

Perhaps I shouldn’t go against an Oregon team that just last week embarrassed me by making UCLA look like they were coached by Wade Phillips, but…

USC has had two weeks to prepare. This is their bowl game. They don’t have a defense worth a damn (87th in the country), but Matt Barkley has been terrific (20 TD to 4 INT), they have the power backs to wear down Oregon and the Ducks have been a little shaky away from Autzen (beat lowly Washington State by 20 but was a tight game at the half; beat Arizona State by 11 despite five Sun Devil turnovers).

Oh what the hell.

USC 41 Oregon 38
ATS – USC
SU – USC

Oklahoma State -4.5 @ Kansas State:

Oklahoma State will be playing without Justin Blackmon, who is suspended for being a dumbass, but if you’ve seen Kansas State’s defense this year, we know that the Cowboys could line up that mascot of theirs with the big hat and he’d put up 85 yards.

Oklahoma State hasn’t won in Manhattan since 1988, but that changes this weekend.

Oklahoma State 34 Kansas State 21
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State

Missouri @ Nebraska -7.5:

This one might decide the Big 12 North, as Missouri goes outside the state of Missouri for only the second time this year.

Can the Tigers build on that Oklahoma win last week? The defense was once again key, as they held DeMarco Murray and the Sooners to 99 yards rushing on 25 carries…but stopping the Sooners rush attack and Nebraska’s is a different story.

I’m having a hard time seeing Blaine Gabbert going into Lincoln and passing it all over the field, and despite their showing against Oklahoma last week they’re not a great rushing team. Their defense will hang tight, but will eventually let up.

Nebraska 24 Missouri 20
ATS – Missouri
SU – Nebraska

Baylor @ Texas -7.5:

The last time Texas lost back-to-back home games in consecutive weeks? 1938 under head coach Dana X. Bible, with a 7-6 loss to SMU followed by a 14-3 loss to Baylor the very next week. And although our offense seems to be that bad sometimes, that Longhorn squad went 1-8 and scored 52 points all year.

Baylor comes into the contest with the nation’s 5th best total offense, 5th best passing offense and are 16th in the country in sacks allowed. They will pass it up and down the field on you, and when the pass doesn’t work, Robert Griffin III will run on you (384 yards rushing and 6 touchdowns on the year).

Their defense isn’t great (79th in total defense and 84th in pass defense), but we all know that doesn’t matter this week.

Baylor last beat Texas in 1997, and this is by far their best chance to do it since then. I really wish I could come out and say that this is the week it all changes and we come out firing and actually score more than 24 points, but what the hell evidence is there of that?

I see Texas scoring somewhere around 20-24 points in this game…can we hold Baylor to that much? Perhaps. Texas does feast on pass first/run second type teams, but if the offense doesn’t help them out, or worse, turns the ball over, then we’re in trouble, because Baylor will capitalize on our mistakes.

I don’t think Texas loses three straight home games, but at this point it wouldn’t shock me. The problem when you lose games like last week is that it wasn’t because of talent, it was purely the give-a-shit factor.

Will Texas give a shit this weekend? I sure hope so, because if not D.X. Bible will have that ugly blip off this record.

Texas 24 Baylor 21
ATS – Baylor
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Texas Rangers World Series tickets.

The Week That Will Be (10.23.2010)

2010-10-20T23:42:00.002-05:00

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 2-4 SU
For the Year: 16-22-4 (.421) ($800) ATS 28-14 (.667) SU

What we learned last week:

We learned that while last week’s Auburn/Arkansas game was fun to watch on television, and Auburn is now 7-0, they won’t be there for long if they continue to let back-up quarterback-level quarterbacks throw for 332 yards and four touchdowns…

We learned that while Denard Robinson is the flashy one, Ricky Stanzi continues to have an outstanding year after throwing for 248 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in a 38-28 victory over Michigan. Stanzi trails only Kellen Moore and Cam Newton in passing efficiency…

We learned that Wisconsin can manage 330 yards of offense but still knock off the #1 team in the country by two touchdowns. College football in 2010, ladies and gentlemen…

We learned that Tommy Tuberville’s defense first approach is failing, as Oklahoma State rolled up 581 yards on the Red Raiders and coasted after getting out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter…

We learned that Mike Sherman will not last long in College Station, as the Aggies again haven’t shown a lick of improvement from last season, and in fact in many ways have regressed…

And finally we learned that Taylor Martinez might be able to beat Deion Sanders in a footrace and would destroy Chuck Norris in a street fight, but he’s no challenge for Will Muschamp.

Anyhow…

That’s what we’ve been looking for all season.

Yeah yeah, you can come out now and say that Nebraska wasn’t really all that good, blah blah blah, but we had plenty around these parts saying last week that Texas didn’t even need to show up because they had no chance.

For all of their deficiencies at times, this coaching staff has shown the ability time and time again in the past to get past challenging times, and that this team will never give up on a season.

And I couldn’t have been prouder of that on Saturday evening.

But Saturday means nothing if Texas comes out in the second half of the season and pulls much of the same tricks that they did in the first half, because although five of those games are at home, it would make each of these team’s seasons to beat Texas in their own house.

The ultimate goal might be out the window, but there are still plenty of secondary goals within reach, and much like the end of 2004 or the bowl game in 2007, momentum can carry on to the next season.

So let’s finish it out right.

Unfortunately we have reached the halfway point of the 2010 season. The last few weeks have saved what was looking to be a very generic college football season, so let’s take a look at the first half and how the post-season awards might shape up at the end of the year:

The Chaps Girl Award (MVP) – Cam Newton (QB), Auburn

In a tight race between Newton and Kellen Moore, give me the guy that has done it in the SEC, running for 176 and throwing for two touchdowns against South Carolina and rushing for 188 and 3 touchdowns against Arkansas last week. This might look like a stupid pick six weeks down the line, but for right now, he’s done the most in the toughest arena.

The Herschel Walker Award (Freshman of the Year) – Taylor Martinez (QB), Nebraska

Martinez had an awful game against Texas, but Will Muschamp will make a lot of guys look silly. Martinez has transformed what was a woeful offense in 2009 against every opponent they played into one of the most feared offenses in the country this year. Once Martinez learns to throw the ball (or his receivers catch it), watch out.

The Eric Taylor Award (Coach of the Year) – Chip Kelly, Oregon

Oregon will drop a game this year due to their horrid defense, but Oregon lost their quarterback before the season started, was doomed to be a 7 or 8 win team without him, and have already done that with several weeks to go. The Ducks make their opponents look about as silly as the Oregon uniforms, and that is saying a lot.

The Wade Phillips Award (Worst Coach of the Year) – John Blake, North Carolina

The man isn’t even a head coach but he has destroyed yet another program and will cost Butch Davis his job. Sounds like a crappy coaching job to me.

The Surprise Team of the Year Award – Michigan State

We’ve already mentioned Oregon, but Michigan State is 7-0 for the first time since Don Draper…spoiler alert….threw his life away by marrying that big tooth broad to marry him in 1966…spoiler alert over.

Head coach Mark Dantonio had a heart attack earlier in the year, but shook it off and was back in the stadium in no time. The Spartans still have road trips to Iowa and Penn State on the schedule, but this season already is a success for those guys.

The Disappointing Team of the Year Award – Take Your Pick

Texas, Florida, USC, Penn State…At least three of those teams have a first year starter, so they have a valid excuse. USC lost a lot as well, though. Suffice it to say that when you have teams like Boise State, TCU, Michigan State and Utah in the Top 10 at this point of the year people are going to wonder what happened to the premier programs.

The (Insert Failed Sound From The Price Is Right Here) Award – Virginia Tech losing to James Madison

Boise State thought they had their signature win (and still do), but the Hokies went out the very next week and lost to James Madison, who is 4-2 in FCS, having lost to Delaware and New Hampshire. Now that the Hokies have reeled off five wins in a row, people are talking up that win again…but c’mon, James Madison. Presidents should win elections, not football games.

The HornMafia Is Not Nostradamus Award – His Take on Tim Brewster

Aside from my sub-par record against the spread this year, there is this from this column two years ago:

The Texas Karma Award – Tim Brewster, Minnesota

The former Texas coach (and father of Texas safety Nolan Brewster) has the Gophers at 6-1 (after going 1-11 last year), with the lone loss coming in Columbus to Ohio State. With no Penn State on the schedule, Minnesota could be looking at a 10 win season, which might get Brewster some looks at the bigger schools out there. You think the Aggies could have hired him?

Um, yeah.

The Les Miles Award – Les Miles, LSU

The guy should really be a Hollywood screenwriter.

The I’m Going to Bow Up Really Big, But Hold Me Back, Hold Me Back Award – Nebraska

You know that guy. The guy that is always looking for a fight, but as he tries to start one, he runs into his buddy’s arm and yells “hold me back! Hold me back!” Well, Nebraska wanted a fight all off-season, but when it came time to exchange blows, they wilted like, well, Nebraska.

The We’re the Champions! Wait, We Have to Play Next Week Award – South Carolina

The Gamecocks looked like a shoo-in for the SEC title game after blasting Alabama, and then they come out the next week and drop one to Kentucky, who snapped a three game losing streak with that win. C’mon Steve Spurrier, allow us to hate you again.

The Pete Rose to the Hall of Fame Award – The BCS Argument

Ugh. It is about this time of the year that I start rooting for Boise State and TCU to lose because I’m sick of the Pete Rose to the Hall of Fame/Barry vs. Emmitt argument that you hear 100 times a day. It ain’t changing, people, so you might as well embrace the system and hope it isn’t the team that you root for that gets screwed. I get the angst that the system causes, but I was already seeing the “1 vs. 8” potential match-up articles this week. Sick of it.

On to the games...

Wisconsin @ Iowa -5.5:

This is looking like Wisconsin is in a South Carolina-like situation here, no, except that Iowa is a lot better than Kentucky. Iowa has only given up 17 points at home all season, and I don’t see Wisconsin coming in here and doing enough to get the upset.

Iowa 24 Wisconsin 13
ATS – Iowa
SU – Iowa

UCLA @ Oregon -25:

We all know that Oregon’s offense is steam-rolling everyone, averaging 54 points per game. Their defense has been porous against teams with a pulse, but they’ve been opportunistic, ranking 2nd in the country in turnover margin.
The question is whether UCLA can put enough together on the ground to shorten the game here. I don’t think they can do it nearly enough to win the ballgame. This has traditionally been a close game (neither team has won by more than 19 points in the last 10 matchups).

They just don’t have the offense to keep up with the Ducks.

Oregon 44 UCLA 24
ATS – UCLA
SU – Oregon

LSU @ Auburn -6:

Ah, can the luck of Les hold up? Auburn has lost three in a row in this series and last year was held to 193 total offensive yards.

I’m not sure that happens again this year, as Lester has to drop one at some point.

Auburn 31 LSU 17
ATS – Auburn
SU – Auburn

Nebraska -5.5 @ Oklahoma State:

OSU is 6-0 after their win in Lubbock last week, doing it with offense as they are 2nd in the country in scoring and total offense. Sophomore receiver Justin Blackmon leads the nation in receiving yards per game and is tied for the scoring lead as well.

But they run into a Nebraska defense that might have yielded the rushing yards in their loss to Texas but held Garrett Gilbert to 62 yards passing. They also held Jake Locker to 71 yards earlier in the season.

The Cowboys would probably have some luck by sticking to the run and giving the ball to Kendall Hunter 30 times in this game, but they haven’t done that all season.

Good defense usually beats good offense, so I look for Nebraska to recover here and give the OSU offense some fits.

Nebraska 34 Oklahoma State 21
ATS – Nebraska
SU – Nebraska

Oklahoma - 3 @ Missouri:

Does anyone really believe that Oklahoma is the #1 team in the country, like the BCS poll states that they are? Might they be the worst #1 team in the BCS era?

They barely beat Utah State and Air Force at home (don’t give me this crap about AF being good, yes they’re good, but they’re not Oklahoma in Norman good), struggle with Cincinnati and then need Texas to shoot itself in the foot multiple times to win by 8 in Dallas.

Landry Jones has been efficient, DeMarco Murray looks like his old self, but the defense isn’t the OU defense of old, giving up 227 yards through the air this year.

Enter Missouri, who I wrote off last week as another Big 12 North team that is solid for half a year then starts playing road games and folds. No, going to College Station and winning a ballgame isn’t exactly going into Lambeau Field in January, but the Tigers impressed me by holding a Texas A&M offense that is averaging 30 points per game to 9 points.

In fact, this Missouri defense hasn’t given up more than 24 points in any single game this year, and only gave up 19 points in their other three games in Columbia combined. They’re fourth in the country in sacks, and expect defensive end Aldon Smith back from a fractured leg to join that unit. Smith only had 10 tackles, three tackles for loss and two sacks against Illinois in the season opener.

If Blaine Gabbert plays within himself, and if the defense can make Landry Jones make the plays with his arm instead of Murray with his feet, then Missouri can certainly pull off the upset here. But…does that paper tiger Missouri team finally show up here?

Probably. Oklahoma is the greatest team in the history of ever…right?

Oklahoma 34 Missouri 28
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Iowa State @ Texas -20.5:

I’m not going to go into how Iowa State can beat Texas, because they can’t, unless all three Texas quarterbacks sleep through their alarm for the 11 AM start and Texas is forced to start James Kirkendoll at QB while Coach Rucker pounds on Gilbert’s door…

The Cyclones looked to be more trouble earlier in the year when they beat Texas Tech in Ames, but since then they have given up 120 points in two games and nearly got several bookmakers in Vegas fired for only making them a touchdown underdog to Utah two weeks ago.

They now rank 104th in the country in total offense, 112th in total defense, 104th in scoring defense and 112th in the country in sacks.

They’re bad. Jerrod Johnson 2010 bad.

Nope, what I will talk about here, like I do in a lot of games like this, is talk about what I would like to see from this game:

A.) Garrett Gilbert showing us a glimpse of the future. Sure, we’ve seen halves of games here and there, saw an impressive stretch in the second quarter against Wyoming, but I want to see a dominating effort against a team that lets you dominate them like a New York governor. They gave up 334 yards to Landry Jones, 325 to Jordan Wynn and 377 to Taylor Potts. I want to see similar numbers.
B.) Special Teams outburst. The Texas return teams have been dreadful this year, with nice punt returns being negated by miscues and fumbles. Our kickoff return unit ranks 106th in the country. It is past time to see some improvement.
C.) Offensive Line continuing their play from Nebraska. The offensive line dominated for long stretches of time against Nebraska, let’s see it again. And again. And again.
D.) Defense doing what they does. To paraphrase Rangers manager Ron Washington, keep it up. Mack Brown mentioned this week that some players injured against Nebraska last week might not play this week (Keenan Robinson?), so use this time like you did last week, Jordan Hicks…shine.

Let’s not see the 2010 team that at times has been lost, and at other times flat out un-effective. If this team wants to get where it wants to be in the future, it must start dominating games like this.

Texas 45 Iowa State 10
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Texas Rangers…playoff tickets.

The Week That Will Be (10.16.2010)

2010-10-14T01:33:00.002-05:00

Last Week: 2-4 ATS 3-3 SU
For the Year: 14-18-4 (.438) ($580) ATS 26-10 (.) SU

What we learned last week:

We learned to slow down on the Denard Robinson for Heisman campaign, as he threw 3 interceptions, two of them in the red zone as Michigan once again lost to State…

We learned that you might as well just enjoy the absurdity of Les Miles, because it won’t be around forever…

We learned that South Carolina can play a perfect game, sack Greg McElroy 7 times and yes, Stephen Garcia does have some talent…

We learned that Tommy Tuberville had better give up the surprise onside kick, because at this point it is only a surprise if the other team doesn’t score on it…

We learned that we need an open ballot on those that voted Jerrod Johnson the Big 12 offensive player of the year this pre-season, because they need to be excluded from voting for any major award ever again…

And finally we learned that the Bill Snyder Era Take 2 is a far cry from the first installment, but I’m sure they’re saving it all for Texas.

Anyhow…

”Blessed is the man who trusts in the Lord…” Jeremiah 17:7

Where were you when it happened?

Which time?

In 2009 I was in the upper deck of the Death Star, thinking about how in the hell I’m going to use my American Airlines voucher that I’m going to need when I cancel my flight to Orange County for January 6th. Screaming obscenities that will not be found anywhere in Jeremiah 17:7, I saw with my own eyes the second that was left on the clock when Colt McCoy’s errant pass fell incomplete, and had complete confidence that the officiating crew would see the same upstairs.

They did.

But, even though I had confidence in Hunter Lawrence, you never know what pressure will do to the soul of a human being. Jordan Shipley, being the consummate leader, whispered in his ear the above bible verse and Lawrence kicked the ball through the uprights and sent Texas to their second national title game in five years.

In 2006 I sat in the lower deck at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska and watched as the snow flakes started to fall, coinciding with a 49 yard touchdown pass from Zac Taylor to Brandon Jackson, and the snow started falling even harder when Marlon Lucky threw a 25 yard halfback pass to Nate Swift as Nebraska took their first lead of the second half, 20-19.

I remember looking up at the falling snow against the gray Nebraskan sky, the stadium literally shaking to its core as the blood-thirsty faithful Red finally felt that destiny was theirs, and remember thinking that Colt McCoy probably had never seen snow in his life but now had to lead his team down the field in the most hostile territory he would ever see.

And then it got worse.
A sack on 2nd and 8 forced the Longhorns into 3rd and long, which they did not convert, and Nebraska got the ball on their own 29, with 2:58 left in the game, get a first down and the ballgame is over.

And they did. But Aaron Ross put his helmet on the ball caught by Terrence Nunn, and UT was back in business, 1st and 10 at the Nebraska 44 yard line.

The snow stopped falling. Two pass plays to Quan Cosby got the Horns down to the 22 yard line. A Selvin Young rush got them down the 10 yard line. A couple of plays later, the drive stalled, and out trotted walk-on freshman Ryan Bailey to attempt a 22 yard field goal to win the game?

Who? “Who the F is Bailey?” I asked my buddy sitting next to me.

After the kick was good, it was Ryan F’ing Bailey.

I’m not going to regale you with tales of where I was during every Texas/Nebraska game of the Big 12 era, but suffice it to say that I can remember where I was for every one of them (in Lincoln in 2002 to see Nathan Vasher pick off Jamal Lord, in DKR when Mike Jones and Matthew McConaughey danced on the sidelines in 1999), when I would have to struggle to tell you where I was for every Texas/Missouri game, or every Texas/Kansas State game.

Saturday’s game between Texas and Nebraska is indeed the end of an era, one that I am sad to see go.

And it didn’t have to be this way.

Nebraska was the blue collar, still clinging to the option way of football when the Big 12 was formed in time for the 1996 season. And why not? The Huskers won three national championships in four years running that offense, but still were bothered by the wealth and arrogance (don’t you just love those two words together in Texas lore), displayed by the flashy Longhorns who were instrumental in the formation of the Big 12.

The Huskers would have been just fine beating up on Iowa State and Kansas each and every week, thank you, and didn’t need Texas coming into their conference and telling them how to run things and getting rid of their partial qualifiers.

I guarantee you if you get Representative Tom Osborne in a room without tape recorders, he’d have some choice words about Texas.

And why not? Texas beat the Huskers in the inaugural Big 12 Championship Game (another reason Osborne hated Texas, he wanted no part of conference championship games) as a three touchdown underdog rolled over the Cornhuskers, ending their hopes of a national title game berth. In 1998 Texas went up to Lincoln and was a 16.5 point underdog, but ended Nebraska’s 47 game home winning streak with a 20-16 victory led by Major Applewhite. In 2002 that win ended Nebraska’s 26 game home winning streak.

Texas cost them multiple shots at national championship runs, while they thought that they had dashed the hopes of the Longhorns last season, only for the refs to “correctly” put one second back on the clock so that Texas could kick a field goal in the Big 12 Championship game. Look long and hard over the Nebraska plains, but you won’t find that “correctly” anywhere in the news articles from this week.

So what does Nebraska do? Do they stick with it, knowing that the tide will turn at some point, that Texas’s “luck” will run out, that the league that has been around for 14 years is starting to mature?

Nope, they take their ball and go home.

Without even the decency to visit Austin one last time.

The Cornhuskers came into this conference with a chip on their shoulder, and will leave at the end of this academic year with a larger chip on their shoulder, fueled by their inability to defeat Texas but once in the sport they care about up there, football.

Nebraska came into this conference well respected behind the leadership and teachings of Osborne, the envy of a nation that saw that N on the helmets and was legitimately intimidated.

Nebraska leaves the conference by selling t-shirts with :01 on the back and an upside down Longhorn on the front, promoting a “RED OUT” months in advance (I saw plenty of red up there in my trips in 2002 and 2006) and other mockeries of their historical relevance usually reserved for teams wearing maroon and humping it out.

Even though Texas limps into this game with a two game losing streak, the city of Lincoln is obsessed with one thing and one thing only this week, and have been since December of last year.

Beat Texas.

To the Longhorns, this game shouldn’t be about getting a win over Nebraska to improve their record to 4-2 and get things back on track. That is a nice benefit as well, but the goal of the Longhorns this week should be to stick in Nebraska’s eye one last time.

Goodbye, and don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

Due to their early season struggles, Texas is in an unusual position – an underdog. And an overwhelming one at that.

In Vegas, 75-77% of the money is coming in on Nebraska to beat Texas by two scores or more.

When you get up on Saturday morning and turn on College Gameday to ogle Erin Andrews and cuss Lee Corso, prepare yourselves. Desmond Howard will make some outlandish statement about how Texas doesn’t belong on the same field as Nebraska. Kirk Herbstreit will throw out Taylor Martinez’s stats and predict Nebraska to make a statement to the rest of the country. Corso will say it will be closer than the experts think, but Nebraska will still win.

Every pundit on every broadcast signal from here to Saskatchewan will pick the Huskers to roll, that they will finally get over on Texas.

If we weren’t so arrogant, we’d start to get a complex about this.

The national pundits, and even most local pundits, might blow up Nebraska to be the best team in the country with their stud first year quarterback and hard hitting defense.

But the Longhorns don’t have to be the best team in the world on Saturday. From what we’ve seen so far this year, they aren’t in the same stratosphere of that title.

All they have to be is the best team on Saturday.

The post-game quotes in the UCLA and Oklahoma losses were rife with regret, saying that we should have done this, or should have done this sooner, or if we’d only cut down on those mistakes, we would have won the ballgame.

Leave it all on the field.

Saturday isn’t about this year. It is about taking pride in this program’s past and looking at that name across the front of your chest and knowing what those before you did, knowing that there is a privilege to wearing that uniform.

It is knowing that the team in the other locker room would like nothing more to embarrass you and taking that anger and channeling it into the right path.

This team has been tested. It is time to respond.

To borrow from the great Herb Brooks, great moments are made from great opportunities. Ryan Bailey, Derek Lewis, James Brown, Mike Jones, Major Applewhite, Brian White and Wane McGarity all took advantage of those opportunities.
Every play.

This day.

On to the games...

Arkansas @ Auburn -3.5:

This is a game of contrasting styles as Auburn brings the nation’s 8th best rushing attack while Arkansas brings the nation’s 3rd best passing game.

Auburn has struggled against the pass this year, giving up 239 yards per game in the air. They gave up 300 yard passing games to Arkansas State and South Carolina already this year. Mallett will feast here.

Arkansas 37 Auburn 31
ATS – Arkansas
SU – Arkansas

Iowa -3 @ Michigan:

Michigan struggled against Michigan State last week for long stretches of time. It doesn’t get any easier this week as Iowa brings the nation’s 2nd best rush defense.

Ricky Stanzi is quietly having a very good year, as he is third in the country in passing efficiency. A great defense and a smart quarterback that keeps the ball on his side of the field will win you a lot of games.

Iowa 27 Michigan 21
ATS – Iowa
SU – Iowa

Ohio State -4 @ Wisconsin:

A game of trends: Wisconsin is 25-3 in night home games since 1995…but Ohio State is 8-0 on the road against Top 25 teams recent years. Wisconsin hasn’t beaten Ohio State since 2004, and hasn’t beaten them at Camp Randall since 2003.

I look at a Wisconsin team that is living on name only, as they’ve struggled at home against teams they shouldn’t have (San Jose State, Arizona State) and let Minnesota move the ball last week.

With the nation’s #117 ranked schedule, Jim Tressel has probably been preparing for this game for weeks.

Ohio State 24 Wisconsin 16
ATS – Ohio State
SU – Ohio State

Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech -3.5:

The home team has won every game in this series since Tech won 49-30 in Stillwater in 2001. Which Oklahoma State team shows up here? The one that has feasted on weak defenses at home, or the one that continuously struggles on the road?

The Cowboys are giving up 290 yards per game through the air, and it doesn’t figure to get better in Lubbock against a Texas Tech team that is starting to find its offensive identity.

Texas Tech 41 Oklahoma State 34
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Texas Tech

Missouri @ Texas A&M -3.5:

It is a tale of ships passing in opposite directions, as Texas A&M has lost two in a row in ugly fashion, while Missouri stomped Colorado 26-0 last week to improve to 5-0.

But how impressive has Missouri been? Their best win is over 3-2 Illinois, and I’m not comfortable calling any win over a Ron Zook coached team an impressive win.

Jerrod Johnson already has more interceptions to this point than he had all of last season, but when he is on, he’s on. Missouri gets exposed as a, ahem, paper tiger.

Texas A&M 37 Missouri 28
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – Texas A&M

Texas @ Nebraska -9.5:

Oddly enough, I’m worried more about how the Texas defense handles the Nebraska offense than I am what the Texas offense does on Saturday afternoon.

If Texas is able to control Taylor Martinez and the rest of the Nebraska rushing attack, Texas can steal one here by doing just enough on offense and hoping for a game changing play on defense or special teams.

But that, of course, is easier said than done, as Nebraska is 2nd in the country in rushing offense, with Martinez averaging 147 yards per game on the ground himself.

But are those empty numbers?

Don’t get me wrong, Martinez has been impressive, as has the whole Nebraska attack, but let’s take a look at their opponents. Here are the rushing defenses that Nebraska has faced this year:

Western Kentucky # 111
Idaho # 63
Washington # 106
South Dakota State # 107 (in FCS)
Kansas State # 116

If you’re like me, you watched last Thursday’s beat down of Kansas State and was mortified of Martinez running untouched through KSU, knowing that KSU always has a solid defense…until this year.

They gave up 252 yards rushing to UCF. 171 to Iowa State. 166 to Missouri State. 193 to ...UCLA.

So yes, let us give all the respect that is due to Nebraska and their rushing attack, but they will face by far their best defense of the year this Saturday…if Texas has learned from the missed assignments and missed tackles that they suffered against UCLA.

We’ll see.

On offense, all, okay some, of the indications are that Texas plans to open things up, which we will all believe when we see it, but that is indeed good news if true.

Nebraska’s defense isn’t quite the dominating unit that it was last season, when it was 9th in total defense and 2nd in scoring defense, giving up 285 yards and 11 yards per game. But it is close.

This year they have been a bit more lenient, giving up 180 yards on the ground to Kansas State, 175 rushing yards to Washington and 179 to Western Kentucky.

Their sack numbers and tackles for loss are also down. They do feature the nation’s best pass defense statistically, with a secondary that will be the best Texas has seen or will see all year.

Greg Davis mentioned this week that the Cornhuskers only blitz about 16% of the time, so they’re a patient defense that will wait for you to make a mistake rather than one that will sell out and give up a big play.

This one all depends on which Texas team shows up. Will it be the one that didn’t give a damn against UCLA and let them run all over them? Will it be the conservative bunch that opened it up too late against Oklahoma? Or will it be the “nothing to lose” bunch that we all hope we see?

I expect Texas to play their best game of the year here. If that will be enough, I don’t know, but Nebraska has yet to be tested this year, and we’ll see what Taylor Martinez is all about right here.

I’m a homer, but you can’t write an article like this and then pick Nebraska to win, right?

Texas 24 Nebraska 21
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for the Texas Buy Off the Officials Fund.

The Week That Will Be (10.09.2010)

2010-10-07T00:49:00.000-05:00

Last Week: 2-3-1 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 12-14-4 (.462) ($360) ATS 23-7 (.767) SU

What we learned last week:

We learned that Nick Foles must be wrecking shop in Tucson, because he threw for 303 yards against an Iowa defense that has allowed a combined 17 points in the four games against opponents other than Arizona (including 3 in a hapless effort by Penn State on Saturday), who scored 34…

We learned that Oregon might not be able to stop a team, but they’ll take the ball away from you at some point and then score on you. A very impressive beginning to the season for the Ducks, but what happens when they play a team in their house that can also score?

We learned that Alabama is in a class by themselves. Florida looked like they were building something with an impressive win over Kentucky the week prior, but Alabama tore all of that down with a 31-6 rout on Saturday night. Again, who beats this team? Only Alabama can beat Alabama…

We learned that Mark Richt’s days in Athens might be numbered, as the Bulldogs fell to 1-4 with a loss to Colorado, despite the return of AJ Green (who had a ridiculous TD catch). With the meltdown on the football field, and the arrests off of it, you have to wonder if the Georgia players have simply tuned Richt out…

We learned that Jerrod Johnson might not be the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, an honor bestowed on him in the pre-season, but he might be the Big 12’s most exciting player, because you never know if he can score a touchdown for his own team or the other team on any given play…

And finally, we learned that hey, it isn’t possible to beat your rival in an emotional game when you commit 9 penalties, and it seemed like a lot more than that.

Anyhow…

Again, I don’t want to hear about how this is a “transition” year, that the Longhorns are “reloading” for another run in 2011 or 2012, that we’ll take our lumps this year and be ready to roar next year.

To paraphrase the great Norm Hitzges, that sounds like the droppings of a large farm animal.

16 of the 22 players in the two deep are juniors or seniors, so it isn’t like this team doesn’t have the seasoning of a national title run last year or a Fiesta Bowl victory in 2008.

Yes, some of the positions are young, such as quarterback, and perhaps defensive tackle.

But the running backs are juniors and sophomores who didn’t redshirt. The wide receivers are juniors and seniors, with a little bit of youth mixed in. An offensive line that boasts the nation’s 81st rushing attack has three seniors and a junior. The tight end is a senior.

Two seniors start at defensive end. The starting linebackers are juniors and seniors. Same for the defensive backfield.

Stop with the lame excuses.

This team should be better than they are. The players aren’t executing, and the coaches aren’t coaching.

Falling down 14-0 against Oklahoma because you act like the Sooners running the hurry up offense is a new wrinkle is absurd. They’ve only been doing it for three years.

Committing penalty after penalty after penalty, extending drives on defense and ending drives on offense isn’t youth. 9 penalties for 81 yards against Oklahoma. 8 for 75 yards against UCLA. 11 for 95 yards against Tech. It is an undisciplined wreck of a team.

Dropping punts and committing personal fouls on 3rd and 20 isn’t youth. It is bad coaching.

Having two of the fastest players in the country returning kicks for you, but ranking 98th in the country in kickoff returns is….bad coaching.

Being criticized for an absurd horizontal gameplan the week before against UCLA and coming out of the gates on Saturday (already down 7-0 mind you), with two horizontal passes just reeks of arrogance and stubbornness…and bad coaching.

Look, I hate to be the curmudgeon, but the simple fact of the matter is that the players are not getting the job done and the coaches aren’t doing the things needed to right the ship. We all saw problems back at Rice, and home against Wyoming and in the plains of Lubbock, but we just got called bad fans who cry when we win.

Fix it. Now.

I am 100% positive that this coaching staff can get it back on track, and we can even accomplish some smaller goals this year while building momentum for next year. We’ve seen them do it before.

But this “We’re Texas” attitude that we have around here sometimes has to go, and it has to be replaced by the humility of knowing that you are an unranked team along with about one hundred others entering this Saturday, with more talent on this roster than any one of those one hundred.

It won’t be easy. Nebraska is a fine football team who will be smelling blood in the water. Which makes them the perfect opponent to start the road back against.

Bye week? It should be hell week.

Some other random college football thoughts:

• Where are the upsets? Alabama, Ohio State, Boise State and Oregon have all gone through this season relatively unscathed, with Alabama the closest of those teams to getting beat (at Arkansas). Compare this to 2007 where Michigan, West Virginia, Rutgers, Florida, Kentucky, Penn State, Louisville, Oklahoma, Texas and USC were all ranked in the Top Ten and had lost at this point of the season. If we’re going to suck, I want to see some utter chaos, dammit.

• Isn’t it fun to guess which team Brent Musberger has money on each week? He sounded downright depressed when Oregon would score the other night…

• You never know how the booty hole gonna act. – Texas Rangers manager Ron Washington. So true, Ron, so true.

• Adam James’s statistics this year: 0 catches, 0 yards. Good trade off, Tech.

• Les Miles. You don’t even need a punch line, do you? How can a team be 5-0 but everyone wants to fire the head coach? How bad is it going to be when one of these blunders actually costs his team a win…or two?

• If this had happened against Texas A&M, would the book stores start selling, “We Only Need Twelve Men” t-shirts?

• Don’t worry Boise, Oregon might have jumped you in the polls, but you get a chance to impress the nation this week against…Toledo. Okay, next week against…San Jose State. Louisiana Tech? Hawaii? Well you get three straight Friday night games in November, which tells you where you are in the college football landscape…but you get on TV. Congrats.

• Ohio State, with their yearly close game against Illinois, to be followed by a close win at Wisconsin next week. Yawn.

• How is a Top 10 team (Utah) less than a touchdown favorite at Iowa State this week? It’s either parity or Iowa State is better than we think (for sure better than Tommy Tuberville thought). Oh hell, we’re not going to lose to them, too, are we?

On to the games...

Michigan State @ Michigan -4.5:

The first match-up of undefeated teams in this series since 1999, this looks to be a good one as both teams come in playing well. The Spartans beat Wisconsin last week, while Denard Robinson put on another showcase against Indiana.

MSU’s defense has been decent this year, but they haven’t seen anything like what they’ll see Saturday from Robinson.

Michigan 38 Michigan State 31
ATS – Michigan
SU – Michigan

LSU @ Florida -6.5:

Well one team got their butts whipped last week, while the other probably feels like they lost the game. Neither of these teams have an offense, but Florida’s is just a tad bit better.

Florida 24 LSU 13
ATS – Florida
SU – Florida

Alabama -7 @ South Carolina:

If you’re hoping Alabama slips up somewhere along the way, this might be the best chance of that happening, as the only two other road games on the Crimson Tide schedule are Tennessee and LSU, and we all know what a mess those two teams are.

Alabama has shown no letdown despite losing a number of starters on the defensive side of the ball. South Carolina is trying to get things back together after a tough loss at Auburn two weeks ago.

South Carolina has some talent, and they’ve nearly pulled off some upsets in recent years, but Alabama is on a completely different level than the Gamecocks.

Alabama 27 South Carolina 16
ATS – Alabama
SU – Alabama

Baylor v. Texas Tech -2.5:

Texas Tech brings a 14 game winning streak into this series, but is reeling after a 52-38 loss at Iowa State last week, a game in which they fell down 24-0 in the first half. It was not the performance that Tech was looking for coming off a bye week.

Meanwhile Baylor rolled Kansas 55-7, with Robert Griffin accounting for four touchdowns. Baylor has a bowl game on their mind…it would be their first since 1994.

Tech is a mess right now, but I’m not sure that Baylor has the overall talent to win a game like this yet.

Texas Tech 31 Baylor 24
ATS – Texas Tech
SU – Texas Tech

Texas A&M v. Arkansas -6:

Texas A&M is coming off that heartbreaking loss in Stillwater on national television last week, while Arkansas had the week off after a heartbreaking loss against Alabama the week before.

Arkansas won this game by 29 points last season, and while it will be closer than that, the Razorbacks are the better team here.

Arkansas 41 Texas A&M 34
ATS – Arkansas
SU – Arkansas

Nebraska -12 @ Kansas State:

This was a classic in the early days of the Big 12, and is on the road back to respectability after a 4-0 start by both teams.

Nebraska has looked a lot like the Cornhuskers of old, averaging 309 yards on the ground while only allowing 265 yards per game on defense.

Look for the Wildcats to feed the ball to Daniel Thomas over and over, trying to shorten the game and keep the Manhattan crowd in it.

Nebraska keeps winning, but this one will be hard fought.

Nebraska 27 Kansas State 21
ATS – Kansas State
SU – Nebraska

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Rangers playoff tickets.

Yes, there was a post last week, I just forgot to post it here. Sorry. You can find it on Barking Carnival should the mood strike you to relive last weekend.

The Week That Will Be (09.25.2010)

2010-09-22T23:34:00.000-05:00

Last Week: 3-2-1 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 8-7-3 (.533) ($10) ATS 15-3 (.833) SU

What we learned last week:

We learned that John Brantley is no Tim Tebow, and he’s also no Doug Johnson or Ingle Martin, as the youngster is doing enough to get by, but that won’t be enough when they travel to Tuscaloosa next Saturday night…

We learned that Texas fans had better start the Mark Richt Fan Club because things could get ugly in Athens this season…

We learned that Nick Foles belongs in the talk of upper echelon quarterbacks this year, and that Arizona can save me from a bad afternoon in the sports book…

We learned that you never, never bet on Baylor, and we also learned that if Andy Dalton has to say that TCU came out “with a lot of emotion” and wanted to beat “an in-state rival”, then that tells you all you need to know about TCU’s college football identity…

We learned that Boyz II Men must have a hit record out because Nebraska is running for 383 yards and has a stout defense again…

And finally, we learned that a 22 play drive is possible, that Neal Brown is no Mike Leach and that you never feel bad about a win in Lubbock.

Anyhow…

My family was in town. It is still the only game my dad has ever seen in that stadium. I remember watching my 60 year old aunt climb the stairs to the next to last row of the upper deck and thinking that she couldn’t feel any worse than I do on this day.

All the hopes, all the dreams? All I could hope for is a cool breeze and all I could dream of were the Ranchiladas from On the Border after the game.

Not only could an outsider question my choice of Tex Mex, they could question my sanity about following a football team as bad as this one.

When my family looked at me with sweat dripping off their brows after a Skip Hicks two yard run made it 52-3, I shrugged my shoulders and betrayed the memory of fighters of the Alamo and said, “Let’s go.”

Who knows what I would have written about if I did this column back in the late summer of 1997. I might have written about building upon the miracle in St. Louis by leaning on quarterback James Brown and running back Ricky Williams, and riding them to another South Division title. I might have written about how John Mackovic’s 4th and 1 call the year before might have turned a corner in the annals of Texas football, about how this was the year that we will build upon with Casey Hampton and Quentin Jammer ruling the defensive side of the ball.

I might have written about how Penn State was bound to fall from #1 with a 70 year old coach, and about how Steve Spurrier could never win the big one at Florida, so the opportunity was there to take the next step.

But in no way did I see what was to happen next, that the best thing to come out of the whole ordeal was that Marty Cherry would get a modeling contract.

As I walked down the ramps of Royal-Memorial Stadium, the Sons of Westwood ringing in my ears, I might have even talked myself into believing that this was a fluke, and that this team would gather their pride and finish the season out in fine fashion and go get that national championship in ’98.

Yeah, that 38-31 win over Rice the next week lacked fire, but we rallied from a 14-0 deficit, dammit. Then a 42-16 loss in Stillwater. Then a 27-24 win in Dallas over OU…you know, if we can beat Missouri next week…

They tore down the goalposts. As did Baylor two weeks later.

The only place Texas football was popular that year was the opposing locker room, field goal posts manufacturing facilities and airplane banner companies that flew the infamous “Flush the John, Dump Deloss” banners across game locales.

Mackovic was put on the important task of golf course designing and in came a brown haired fellow from tobacco road that couldn’t win the big game and had zero pressure at a school obsessed with an orange ball, not a brown one.

But it didn’t take long for Mack Brown to win over the hearts of Texas fans, and the rest, as they say, is history. 131 wins. 2 conference championships. One crystal trophy.

An athletic department that makes more money than a gold mine. A stadium that Joe Jamail is proud to have his name on, unlike in 1997 when he told Deloss, “how much … money will it take to get my name off that … field?”

Now it is unfathomable that anyone would want to fire Dodds, who has built the strongest athletic program in the country fueled by the strongest football program in the country.
So why the trip down bad memory lane? I guess it is just impossible to think of a UCLA/Texas game without thinking about that game, a game that in an odd way was a turning point of Texas football, even if it didn’t appear so to the fans filing out of the stadium looking for somewhere better to eat than On the Border.

Even though Mack Brown had his own 63-14 and 65-13 games that seemed so much worse than that September day, his teams always rallied to finish out the seasons strong, just as I had wished while looking at the bird excrement on the ramps down Belmont Hall.

And yes, there is that national championship as well.

So even if you get the shakes at the sight of those UCLA uniforms once again inside the confines of DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, take a moment to ponder how far this program has come since then, and if you could have ever imagined that when you walked out of the stadium that day.

We’re lucky, folks. Enjoy the ride, because you never know when it will come crashing down amid a plate of Ranchiladas.

On to the games...

South Carolina @ Auburn -3:

South Carolina hasn’t beaten Auburn since 1933, so the latest trends aren’t good for the Gamecocks, but Auburn had a lot taken out of them in an overtime win over Clemson last week, while South Carolina comes into this game playing really well.

South Carolina 27 Auburn 21
ATS – South Carolina
SU – South Carolina

Oregon State @ Boise State -17.5:

Yawn. Another “statement” game for Boise, which reminds me of Andy Dalton’s quote above. Oregon State is a nice program, but the fact of the matter is that they are 1-1 with a loss to TCU and an unimpressive win over dreadful Louisville last week.

The Beavers gave up 453 yards to Louisville in Corvallis last week, and spent this week painting their practice field blue instead of fixing the pass defense. Boise rolls at home, ESPN drools and America rolls their collective eyes.

Boise State 48 Oregon State 24
ATS – Boise State
SU – Boise State

Alabama -7 @ Arkansas:

Alabama spanked Arkansas 35-7 last year at Bryant-Denny, and while this one is getting hyped as a classic SEC match-up, it smacks to me of contender vs. pretender. Until Arkansas shows something against a quality opponent, I have to go with the proven commodity.

Alabama 28 Arkansas 13
ATS – Alabama
SU – Alabama

Stanford -4.5 @ Notre Dame:

Stanford has quietly rolled out to a 3-0 start in the darkness of West Coast late night starts, with an impressive 35-0 victory over UCLA and 68-24 drubbing of Wake Forest last week.

Andrew Luck is third in the country in passing efficiency, and this is the game where people start to talk seriously about him and post-season awards.

Stanford 34 Notre Dame 24
ATS – Stanford
SU – Stanford

Oklahoma -13.5 @ Cincinnati:

On a completely unrelated note, don’t ever bet on Oklahoma against a service academy. You’ll feel dirty, and OU will end up screwing you in the end.

A great start by DeMarco Murray has helped Oklahoma avoid dropping an embarrassing one to Utah State or Air Force, games which the Sooners have won by a total of 10 points. Utah State lost by 17 to Fresno last week, while Air Force is a nice team, but won’t remind anyone of Texas or Nebraska anytime soon.

So what’s wrong with the Sooners? Let’s start with a defense that has allowed an average of 408 yards per game, good for 89th in the country, and a running game that goes nowhere with anyone but Murray running the ball. Add in a largely ineffective Landry Jones, and the Sooners look shaky at best right now despite a blowout win over Florida State.

But the Bearcats don’t have much either, dropping two of three to start the season due to an offense that is only 84th in the country and a pass defense that is giving up 247 yards per game. One thing Cincinnati does do right is keep the ball in their own hands as Zac Collaros has yet to throw an interception this year.

Cincinnati will be able to hit a couple of big plays, keeping the ball away from Oklahoma. It won’t be enough to win, but I’m not sure Oklahoma is good enough to beat solid teams away from Norman in convincing fashion.

Oklahoma 31 Cincinnati 20
ATS – Cincinnati
SU – Cincinnati

UCLA @ Texas -15:

The offense might have been mediocre last week, but the defense was anything but, only giving up 144 total yards, a number that Texas Tech might have gotten in the first quarter against Texas in recent years.

But oh that offense. 4 turnovers and 3 sacks after not allowing either all season. 93 yards rushing against a Red Raider defense that gave up 109 against SMU and 97 against New Mexico.

What is this offense? Is it a running team? Obviously not, only averaging 152 yards per game on the year, good enough for 65th in the country. Is it a passing team? No, the passing game has been worse at 71st in the country. Not one single running back has stepped up. Not one single receiver has established himself as the go-to guy on offense.

With all due respect to UCLA and the talent they have on defense, they gave up 313 yards rushing to Kansas State, 211 rushing yards to Stanford and 252 passing yards to four different Houston quarterbacks last week. This is the last “warm-up” act before facing Oklahoma and Nebraska.

Oklahoma’s defense has struggled thus far, but you’re kidding yourself if you don’t think they won’t be at their best against Texas. Nebraska’s defensive numbers are down, but they’ll be amped up with their lame one second BS and will be ready to play as well.

If the Longhorns don’t get their … together this week, then this offense has major problems that might not be fixed all season.

When the Bruins take the field, they’ll be led by Kevin Prince, who missed most of fall practice with an injury and it shows, as he’s thrown 4 interceptions to 1 touchdown pass as the Bruins average only 100 yards of passing yards all season.

The Longhorns absolutely tee off on one dimensional offenses, and UCLA has that, running for 266 yards last week and only throwing for 99 against Houston.
In fact, it is hard to see the Bruins doing much at all on offense. Let us hope that isn’t the case for Texas.

Texas 34 UCLA 6
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Maudie’s.

The Week That Will Be (09.18.2010)

2010-09-15T23:28:00.000-05:00

For those of you that don't know, I am now writing these at Barking Carnival, you can also find my writing about the Dallas Cowboys at www.ringofhonor.fantake.com

Last Week: 3-3 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 5-5-2 (.500) ($70) ATS 10-2 (.833) SU

What we learned last week:

We learned that Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson must have idolized Vince Young, as his 502 total yards were enough to beat Notre Dame. Robinson is the nation’s leading rusher as a QB…

We learned that Mark Ingram is not missed in Tuscaloosa, as Trent Richardson accounted for 193 total offensive yards and a touchdown as Alabama stomped Penn State and their 104 year old coach…

We learned that Jacory Harris needs a refresh on which team he plays for, and Terrelle Pryor does a mean Denard Robinson impression, throwing for 233 and rushing for 113….

We learned that Oregon doesn’t give a damn about flying across the country nor about playing in front of 100,000 plus, while we also learned that Tennessee has a long, long way to go to get back to respectability…

We learned that Florida State is not nearly as good as Utah State as Oklahoma scored touchdowns on their first four drives and gained 294 yards on those drives against the Seminoles…

And finally, we learned that the next time Texas plays Wyoming that the Cowboys will take the lead late in the second quarter before Texas wakes up and puts it away…

Anyhow…

It is RIVALRY week around the University of Texas campus as the Longhorns travel to play Texas A&M, er, Oklahoma, er Texas Tech? Rivalry week? The designers of the popular video game NCAA Football 2011 might be the only people on the planet that thinks this is actually a rivalry game, including the people living on the south plains, but isn’t that the gist of this game over the years?

As of Wednesday night 1,600 students were skipping class, showers and any chance of getting a date the rest of the semester by camping out in hopes of getting the best seats for Saturday night’s game at Jones AT&T Stadium.

Why?

Because this is the game they have had circled on the calendar since the last time these two teams met. To Texas Tech, this is their BCS game, their Big 12 Championship, since they have never experienced either one, while to Texas, this is just an annoying field trip that they have to make every other year.

Perhaps it is time to start taking the red-headed stepchild seriously.

The Red Raiders are 41-6 in Lubbock since 2003. Mack Brown’s Longhorns are 3-3 at Jones Stadium. Texas has won the Big 12 South outright four times under Brown and none of those seasons included a win in Lubbock. Oklahoma hasn’t won there since 2003, when Jason White and BJ Symons squared off. The Aggies won once there last decade. Nebraska gave up 70 in 2004. Oklahoma State went there in 2008 ranked #9 in the country and left with a 56-20 defeat.

Lots of teams need “revenge” once they leave Lubbock.

The Longhorns should know better than anybody. In 2008 a Vondrell McGee 4 yard run with 1:29 left gave the Longhorns the lead, but it was short-lived as Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree ended the hopes of the Horns to reach the national championship game.

In 2002 Texas entered the game ranked #3 in the country, but a Chris Simms interception with 5:21 left sealed the fate for the Longhorns, who lost 42-38. Both times, the Red Raiders set themselves up for a chance to win the South, or in the case of 2008, perhaps play for the national title.

Both times, Oklahoma in Norman was next on the schedule. The combined score of those two games was Oklahoma 125, Texas Tech 36.

So this isn’t the case of Texas Tech slowly getting better, building a program and taking care of things on the home turf while winning some tough ones away from home.

Nope. They simply want the game more than their opponent does.

Focus shouldn’t be a problem for the Longhorns on Saturday night, as Garrett Gilbert makes his first start in a game that isn’t a Texas home game in disguise. In fact, if you are looking for some good news in all of this, Vince Young and Colt McCoy both won their first start in Lubbock.

Take the game seriously. Take the opponent seriously. Don’t let one misstep in Lubbock cost you the shot at something special later on in the year.

Otherwise, in 2012 when I sit down to write this article I’ll just have to add a couple of paragraphs and be done with it.

On to the games...

Florida -14 @ Tennessee:

Well isn’t this deciding whether to take the valedictorian or the drum major to the prom…Tennessee still has duck imprints on their jerseys while Florida has looked about as smooth on the football field as Chris Rainey is smooth with the ladies.

(Side note: Would Rainey be in more trouble with the law with his ‘Time to Die’ text message, or more trouble with the girlfriend if the text message had said ‘Time to Diet”. Discuss.)

Well the title of this column isn’t The Week That Who Knows Will Be, so we have to pick a winner here. Give me Florida and their superior talent (even if it hasn’t made an appearance in 2010) over Tennessee and their no talent.

Florida 31 Tennessee 14
ATS – Florida
SU – Florida

Arkansas @ Georgia -2.5:

Georgia looks to avoid going 0-2 in conference in conference play as 61 yards rushing on 26 attempts doomed their chances against South Carolina last week. Arkansas is ready to join the 2010 college football season after pre-season wins over Tennessee Tech and Louisiana-Monroe.

Arkansas is the better team here, but Georgia is desperate, Arkansas might be looking forward to Alabama next week, lots of opportunities for Georgia to get up and sneak one out here.

Georgia 23 Arkansas 20
ATS – Georgia
SU – Georgia

Iowa -2 @ Arizona:

Well if you guessed that this is the only game on the slate this week between ranked teams you win a cookie, as Iowa travels to the desert for a late night match-up with the Cats.

Iowa performed well on the road last year, defeating Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan State while losing in overtime to Ohio State. But something strikes me about traveling to the west coast, playing a late game in front of a raucous crowd, against an experienced quarterback and a solid defense.

Arizona 27 Iowa 20
ATS – Arizona
SU – Arizona

Baylor @ TCU -21.5:

It is an old-fashioned SWC match-up as Baylor travels to Fort Worth to take on TCU, who rolled Tennessee Tech (TT gets two mentions in TWTWB, woo-hoo!) one week after defeating Oregon State in impressive fashion.

Baylor’s best chance of an upset lies in the legs and arm of Baylor QB Robert Griffin, who has 7 touchdowns in the first two games of the year.

I look for Baylor to extend the game a bit here, keep the ball in Griffin’s hand and out of the hands of TCU.

TCU 31 Baylor 17
ATS – Baylor
SU – TCU

Nebraska -3 @ Washington:

Well, well, well…if any of you were worried about Nebraska traveling to the Great Northwest and playing in front of one of the loudest crowds in the country, never fear, because quarterback Taylor Martinez has seen all of this before:

“I played in high school in big games, the crowd doesn’t bother me very much.”

Yes, he actually said that.

Wow.

The arrogance of the young signal caller aside, the question here is whether Martinez will be able to pass the ball if Washington is able to take away the run, not that there is any evidence that they will able to do so.

Jake Locker could use this game for his Heisman candidacy, but Nebraska’s defense is too stout while Washington’s is too porous.

Nebraska 34 Washington 24
ATS – Nebraska
SU – Nebraska

Texas -3 @ Texas Tech:

The one thing that jumps out at you when you look at Texas Tech this year is that their offense isn’t as explosive as the Mike Leach offense was, albeit with a small sample size of two games.

But last year through two games the Red Raiders were 1st in the country in passing offense (456.5 ypg) and 16th in the country in total offense (502.5 ypg). This year they are 11th in passing (334.5 ypg) and 29th in total offense (446.5 ypg).

Still impressive, but not Mike Leach Hide the Women and Children Grab a Receiver and Hold On Offense that we’ve grown accustomed to. Tech is making a concentrated effort to try to run the ball more, and while they aren’t having much success (93rd in the country with 112 ypg), they have some talent back there with Baron Batch and Eric Stephens.

Offensive coordinator Neal Brown comes to Tech from Troy University, and while I respect his efforts there, if you’re asking me to pick between Neal Brown and Will Muschamp, I’ll take Muschamp 100 times out of 100.

On defense, Tech is undergoing a rehaul from the base defense philosophy of Ruffin McNeil to the multiple sets of James Willis (the former Philadelphia Eagles linebacker and linebacker coach at Alabama last year). The transition has not been a smooth one, as Tech ranks 80th in the country in total defense and 105th in passing defense after facing SMU and New Mexico.

The Lobos managed to throw for 336 yards and had 146 rushing yards before sacks. The week before, they managed 82 yards passing and 83 yards rushing against an Oregon team that will never be confused with the Steel Curtain.

This one will depend largely on the Texas offense. Will Gilbert and his receivers use this opportunity to get on track and put up some big numbers for the first time this year? Will a running back step up and be consistent for an entire game…or half? Will the offensive line be able to handle a defensive front that has already recorded 9 sacks this year?

Yes. No. Yes.

Call me foolish, but the Longhorns are simply better, and significantly better at that.

Texas 34 Texas Tech 21
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Bleachers.

The Week That Will Be (09.11.2010)

2010-09-08T23:52:00.000-05:00

Last Week: 2-2-2 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 2-2-2 (.500) ($40) ATS 5-1 (.833) SU

What we learned last week:

We learned that Pitt quarterback Tino Sunseri is named after Santino “Sonny” Corleone from The Godfather, which I’m glad I didn’t know beforehand because I totally would have went Pitt’s way…

We learned that Notre Dame can win in Brian Kelly’s first game and absolutely nothing noteworthy can happen in that game…

We learned that Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer needs to put on his job evaluation “must improve time management” after throwing the ball on 3rd and 8 and giving Boise State the ball with 2:00 to go in the game. Who didn’t know what was coming there?

We learned that Kyle Padron thought he was part of the Texas Tech quarterback battle by throwing to Red Raiders all day long, but SMU still held tough with Tech, which either bodes well for SMU or spells doom for Tech…

We learned that Texas might be able to run against UCLA, as Kansas State ran for 313 yards against the Bruins, with Daniel Thomas getting 234 of those…

And finally, we learned that Keenan Robinson is going to win the Nagurski Award…

Unless you spent Labor Day weekend in Devil’s Cove getting sunburned and lost your phone going down a slide, you know that college football kicked off last weekend, but we can still do a college football preview a week in, it isn’t like anyone of importance lost last weekend (with all due respect to Kansas and Mississippi).

The Summer of 2010 was an eventful one, as we had guys kicking balls back and forth to each other and a riveted globe watching guys kick balls back and forth to each other, we had BP threatening Tiger Woods for A-Hole of the Year and speaking of Tiger Woods we had US troops pulling out of Iraq, 7 years after the war began.

Let’s look at the top contenders for the national championship trophy, and how they might compare to the top news stories of Summer 2010.

The World Cup Division

They might be a big news story, but most of America couldn’t care less about Boise State and TCU. The arguments have been told a thousand times, but honestly, let’s take a look at Alabama’s schedule this year: San Jose State (stay with me), Penn State, @ Duke, @ Arkansas, Florida, @ South Carolina, Mississippi, @ Tennessee, @ LSU, Mississippi State, Georgia State (what the hell), Auburn (who hates you with a passion).

Either one of those teams loses at least 2 in there somewhere.

I suppose they are a nice story, but to hear Pat Forde have a kid with Boise State beating a potential 3-4 loss Virginia Tech and seeing Boise State high five their fans after winning a game they were favored in was a bit ridiculous.

But whatever, they won their one game a season again, let’s party.

The Wikileaks Division

Ohio State is 75 percent of the country’s pick to win the national title solely due to the fact that Terrelle Pryor “arrived” after throwing for 266 yards and rushing for 72 in the Rose Bowl against an Oregon team that gave up 306 yards to Sean Canfield of Oregon State, 314 to Nick Foles of Arizona and 223 yards to Toby Gerhart, all after Halloween.

If Terrelle Pryor “arrived” at the Rose Bowl, then what the hell did Vince Young do, enter the ring, hit everyone over the head with a steel chair, give them the Stone Cold Stunner and down a Budweiser with his foot on Michigan and USC’s chest? Actually, he kinda did…

And apparently news hasn’t leaked that Nebraska still doesn’t have a quarterback. Last year’s starter Zach Lee could barely get off the bench last week against Western Kentucky while some guy named Taylor Martinez barely completed 50 percent of his passes against that fearless Hilltopper defense. Add to that the fact that they lost the heart of their defense in Suh, Asante and O’Hanlon, and Nebraska is nowhere near the 6th best team in the country.

The Chelsea’s Wedding Division

Well both certainly had a guy with heart trouble and an ugly duckling, as Florida’s offense managed 25 yards through three quarters of play against Miami of Ohio on Saturday. Yikes. John Brantley is going to have to get better, quick, or Florida will be spending New Year’s in Atlanta at the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

The Larry King Retires Division

Penn State isn’t really a contender, I just wanted to make fun of Joe Paterno some more. But I can’t even do that anymore…give it up, Joe! Your younger brother Larry King is retiring, it is time for you to do the same…

The Inception Division

Yeah, Texas fans would like to think it was a dream without that crazy wife with the knives coming after you (well, most of us), but I’m not sure I see anyone beating Alabama again this year. They have the defense, the offense last year was adequate enough last year and is back, and even though Boise & TCU might drop a couple with that schedule, the Tide get their toughest games at home.

On to the games...

Michigan @ Notre Dame -4:

All eyes on the Big Ten this week as they have three premier match-ups, starting with this one. It tells you how far Michigan has fallen that people are impressed by a victory over Connecticut, but it is what it is. Notre Dame had that win over Purdue that I still can’t tell you anything noteworthy from that game.

Michigan is better, but the defense still gave up 343 yards to a middle of the road UConn offense, while Notre Dame looked fairly impressive on both sides of the ball…I think.

The home team has won 8 of the last 10 in this series, and I don’t see any reason to see this one any differently.

Notre Dame 31 Michigan 24
ATS – Notre Dame
SU – Notre Dame

Penn State @ Alabama -12:

I don’t see Penn State having much of a chance here. They struggled much of last week, freshman quarterback, not a good game to get your sea legs.

Alabama 31 Penn State 14
ATS – Alabama
SU – Alabama

Miami @ Ohio State -8.5:

Ah yes, “revenge” for the 2003 Fiesta Bowl and the controversial pass interference penalty that led to Ohio State being the worst national champions in recent history (yes, including 2 loss LSU).

But that is ancient history to the guys that will take the field on Saturday. Pryor gets all the hype, but Jacory Harris is the better player, finishing 30th in the country in passing efficiency last year while Pryor finished 59th.

I’m not sure that Miami has enough help on offense against an always stout Ohio State team, though.

Ohio State 23 Miami 16
ATS – Miami
SU – Ohio State

Oregon -12 @ Tennessee:

Oregon treated New Mexico last week like John Blake treats FBS programs, destroying them 72-0.

I think Vegas got a little carried away with that win. Yeah, Tennessee isn’t going to be much this year, but Oregon isn’t going to remind everyone of 1995 Nebraska, either.

Oregon wins, but barely. Going across the country and playing in front of 100,000 isn’t easy.

Oregon 34 Tennessee 28
ATS – Tennessee
SU – Oregon

Florida State @ Oklahoma -7.5:

Oklahoma fans spent the better part of the week convincing themselves that the Sooners spent all of their practice time this summer preparing for Florida State, and they might have even convinced themselves of that by today, but one stat line would scare the hell out of me as a Sooner fan:

Jones, L 17/36 217 YDS 2 TD 2 INT

Sooner fans are used to their heralded quarterbacks blowing the doors off the opening day opponent (except last year when Sam Bradford got his door blown off), but Jones struggled with his reads and appeared to have spent more time on his mustache in the off-season then he did refining his game.

The Sooners also gave up 341 passing yards to Utah State, making you wonder if the attrition on defense might dent that reputation this year.

But…when it is this obvious, I’m sensing a trap. Being a Texas fan, I hope I’m wrong.

Oklahoma 34 Florida State 24
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma

Wyoming @ Texas -29:

Texas brings a 15 game home winning streak into this one, and while Wyoming kept it close for a half last year, they’ll be hard pressed to replicate that in Austin.

Austyn Carta-Samuels might bring a terrible name into the game, but he does have a good arm and an athletic style of play, throwing for 1900 yards and 10 TDs in limited duty last season.

Their leader on defense is the linebacker Brian Hendricks, who you might remember had 14 tackles against Texas last year and matched that with 14 tackles last week against Southern Utah. One man theoretically can’t beat you on defense, but Hendricks will wreck shop if the Longhorns don’t get serious about hitting the holes in the running game.

I see the Longhorns winning comfortably here, but the offense was too iffy last week to see them coming out and scoring in bunches…but we’ll see.

Texas 41 Wyoming 13
ATS – Wyoming
SU – Texas

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Alumni Center whiskey.

Texas 34 Rice 17

2010-09-05T12:51:00.000-05:00

Not sure what to think of this one.

On one hand there were a lot of good individual performances (K. Robinson, Whittaker, M. Williams), and there were no turnovers, not a lot of penalties, but on the other hand we won by 17 over frickin Rice.

We were a couple of plays away from making it a 48-10 game, but they didn't happen. I think for now I'm going to write it off as a glorified scrimmage, but if it continues into Wyoming then it will be a concern.

At least we aren't Kansas, Mississippi or Oklahoma today.

The Week That Will Be (09.04.2010)

2010-09-01T23:03:00.000-05:00

Last Week: 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU
For the Year: 0-0 (.000) $0 ATS 0-0 (.000) SU

We sat on the golf course, under the trees along the cart path, about 150 yards off the tee box where one of my errant left hook drives might have ended up waiting for traffic to clear out. We sat there in silence, wondering how the hell anyone was supposed to get out of this “parking lot”, knowing that we didn’t have the patience to try it ourselves anytime soon.

So we waited. And waited.

Cell phones rang, text messages buzzed. If you listened carefully between the bangs of the Alabama students next to us kicking the fender of their rental car “because it had insurance”, there was one common theme…

What can you do?

What can you do when the quarterback that has won 45 games, the most wins of any quarterback to ever play at this level, gets hit on a freak play and is suddenly rendered unable to play? What can you do when his back-up is a kid fresh out of high school who can’t even find his helmet?

You would have thought that the cool Pasadena air held the answer to that question, as fans in burnt orange fleeces drank the last of their beer, threw it in the trash bag and stared up at the sky, wondering what might have been.

As the glut of cars eased and the rental car became visible, we filed out into the Los Angeles highway system, hoping against all hope that a little In and Out would make it all better.

And then in our exhaustion we never made it to In and Out.

What an terrible ending to a terrible night.

Two days later, as I sat on an American Airlines jet somewhere over the great state of Arizona, the feelings of disappointment and helplessness turning into sadness, I pulled out my phone and just had to write some of these thoughts down.

Some words from that essay: Fate. Why? What if? Fateful.

The common theme in my head, and plenty of others, was that this was an act of fate, that something above intervened and it was karma for making fun of Tim Tebow all of these years.

What can you do?

Don’t wait on fate to repay you.

Get better.

Fix a running game that ranked 61st in the country and gained only 99 yards against Nebraska and Alabama’s defenses combined. It might be lip service, because honestly we’ve heard it before around these parts, but Mack Brown knew early on that being able to run the ball when you needed to, against anybody in the country, is what won a national championship for Alabama (205 yards rushing against Texas) and Florida (249 yards against Oklahoma) in recent years.

When you have the passing attack that Texas has you will of course lean plenty on getting the ball downfield quickly, but getting under center and getting more physical at the point of attack was probably the most important emphasis of the off-season. A possible indication of the direction the team would like to go is the naming of Cody Johnson, as the starting tailback against Rice on Saturday. Although he is slimmed down, Johnson is still the bruising type of rusher that you want to see if your goal is to get meaner up front.

A significant piece of the pie in that re-worked running game is a revamped offensive line, one that has been described as “physical” and “nasty”, the traits you don’t want in your daughter’s boyfriend but do want in your offensive line. Again, it will take more than talking about it to get the job done, but any hint of a return to the nasty offensive line such as the one led by Kasey Studdard on the 2005 championship team is welcome.

If it is possible to fix a defense that finished 3rd in the country and 1st against the rush, Texas aimed to do that in the off-season after Texas A&M (190 yards) & Alabama (205 yards) were able to find significant running lanes down the stretch run last year.

What has emerged in camp is a defense that Mack Brown isn’t shy to call the best that he’s had here, which is certainly saying something. The loss of Earl Thomas stung, but Texas promises to be more physical with Christian Scott delivering hits from the safety position. Talent wins out over scheme, as Alex Okafor moves to defensive tackle to help shore up depth problems there, leaving defensive end to Sam Acho, Eddie Jones and true freshmen Jackson Jeffcoat and Reggie Wilson.

Texas loses Roddrick Muckelroy in the linebacking corps but Keenan Robinson (10 tackles against Nebraska; 7 against Alabama) showed promise late last season and will fill in nicely. Those of us that have wondered what Derek Johnson might have looked like in a Will Muschamp coached defense might get their wish when Jordan Hicks takes the field…as a back-up.

But of course we all know what helps an already great defense…a consistent offense.

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the Garrett Gilbert Era.

How do you follow up a quartet of quarterbacks (McCoy, Young, Simms, Applewhite) that established a win-loss record of 123-24 in their tenure at Texas? How do you replace a quarterback that won the school’s first national championship in 35 years, or the quarterback who won the aforementioned 45 games and broke 47 school records?

By going and getting the guy that could be better than them all.

Name every quarterback in Texas high school football history and Gilbert threw for more yards than any of them, 12,537 of them to be exact. He guided Lake Travis to thirty straight wins in the process of winning two state titles his junior and senior years. He won numerous player of the year awards on the state and national level. But the best of all?

He’s been a Longhorn since elementary school.

It took less than 24 hours after he received his offer from Texas to commit here, the first commit in his class. His dad, former NFL quarterback Gale Gilbert, asked Garrett to consider other schools, but Garrett refused. Why would you look at other schools when your boyhood idol, Major Applewhite, is on the coaching staff at Texas?

And after finding his helmet in Pasadena, despite only throwing 15 completions all year, Gilbert persevered and threw for 186 yards, 162 of those coming in the second half, almost cementing his legacy without starting a game in his career.

But this is Texas and to be frank that is probably the last free pass he’ll get. With the gaudy stats and lineage of successful quarterbacks comes the price of success: Expectations.

Pressure won’t be a problem for Gilbert. Word came early in the spring practice sessions that Gilbert handled the huddle like a seasoned veteran. Intimidating defenders Aaron Williams (perhaps the next Thorpe award winner at Texas) and Chykie Brown tried to rattle the sophomore in informal practice sessions over the summer, only to get their trash talk thrown right back in their face by the normally laid back Gilbert.

Will he be able to put all of that together? Time will tell. There are plenty of heralded quarterbacks who have fallen by the wayside.

But I’m not going to bet against the kid with the rocket arm and honor roll intelligence, the kid with the NFL pedigree and championship experience already under his belt.

What Can You Do?

The process of answering that question begins Saturday in Houston.

I can’t wait.

On to the games...

Pittsburgh @ Utah -3:

Pitt is the favorite to win the Big East this year, but traveling to Salt Lake City to start the year isn’t the perfect recipe for success.

The Panthers are of course looking to avenge the 35-7 loss in the 2004 Fiesta Bowl at the hands of the Utes (no, not really). Dion Lewis is a game changer in the backfield for Pitt, but Utah’s strength of a rebuilding defense is their defensive line.

Look for a gritty, hard fought game, but I’m not sure that a Dave Wannstedt coached team has the ability to go into an environment like this and get the W with an inexperienced quarterback.

Utah 27 Pittsburgh 21
ATS – Utah
SU – Utah

Purdue @ Notre Dame -11:

Brian Kelly had better go to Costco and get the biggest eraser he can find if he wants to erase Charlie Weis from the memory of Notre Dame fans.

Jimmy Clausen is gone, and junior Dayne Crist is the new signal caller in South Bend. Crist has only passed for 130 yards in his collegiate career, so Kelly certainly has his work cut out for him there.

Purdue is seemingly the only team in the country that can’t beat Notre Dame, having lost four out of the last five in this series, and while I see that trend continuing on Saturday, Purdue keeps this one close.
Notre Dame 28 Purdue 24
ATS – Purdue
SU – Notre Dame

Boise State -2 v. Virginia Tech:

Here’s to you, Mr. Taylor, the nation turns its lonely eyes to you…

The only way in which “Can Boise State make the BCS title game?” doesn’t approach “Brett Favre, retiring or one more year?” status and we have Rachel Nichols renting a weekly hotel room in Boise for the next 4 months is for Virginia Tech to end our long national nightmare…and beat Boise State.

This is only the third time since 1996 that the Hokies will play a regular season game on the East Coast, the last being a 48-13 loss to Georgia (hey, Georgia has a coast!) in 2005.

The question for the Hokies last year at this time was what would they do without running back Darren Evans, who tore his ACL and would be out for the year. His back-up Ryan Williams ran for 1,655 yards, putting those fears to rest, and now they get to team up to form one of the most formidable backfields in the country.

They’ll need them unless quarterback Tyrod Taylor shows this year that he can indeed hit the broad side of a barn.

When Boise State isn’t making a mockery of football with their blue turf, running trick plays or proposing to their girlfriends on the sidelines they run out a stout defense to go along with quarterback Kellen Moore, who has thrown for 7,022 yards in the past two seasons.

This game is at Fed Ex Field in Landover, a virtual home game for the Hokies. I look for that to put them over the edge, as how often does Boise really play in front of a true hostile crowd?

Virginia Tech 24 Boise State 17
ATS – Virginia Tech
SU – Virginia Tech

SMU @ Texas Tech -13.5:

The line tells you that these two programs have gone in different directions since 2008, the last time these teams met. Tech was a 36 point favorite that night, and ended up winning the ballgame 43-7.

June Jones has the Mustangs on an uptick while Tech is shrouded with uncertainty after Mike Leach was fired this off-season and Tommy Tuberville took over head coaching duties.

Of course Tech still has the upper hand and could very well win this one handily…but something tells me that SMU kicks it in high gear this season while Tech might stumble out of the gate with the new coaching staff.

Texas Tech 31 SMU 24
ATS – SMU
SU – Texas Tech

UCLA @ Kansas State -1.5:

Is this the year Rick Neuheisel turns things around in Westwood? A 11-14 record in his first two years on campus haven’t exactly lit a fire under the alumni base, but a couple of strong recruiting classes and the troubles across town at USC have the Bruins thinking that things are turning around.

It all starts and ends with the quarterback position. The Bruins have been killed at that position in recent years with lack of talent and injuries to whatever talent they have, and that continues this year with favorite Kevin Prince a game time decision. Add to the injury issues the fact that the Bruins are implementing a new pistol offense this year, and the UCLA offense is a mess.

The defense is better with Akeem Ayers and Rahim Moore able to play anywhere in the country, and it will have to be to contain Kansas State running back Daniel Thomas.

UCLA won this one last year 23-9 at the Rose Bowl, but with the uncertainty on offense, I don’t see how they stay in the game here.

Kansas State 24 UCLA 16
ATS – Kansas State
SU – Kansas State

Texas -30.5 @ Rice:

Texas blowing out Rice is a yearly tradition going back several years, so I’m not going to bore you with breaking down the Texas MLB v. Rice’s running game, because we all know that Texas is going to win, and they’re going to win big.

So what would we like to see from the Longhorns on Saturday?

I’d like to see the running game get established. Yes, it is just Rice and their pathetic defense, but you have to be able to run against these teams in addition to the Nebraskas and Oklahomas on your schedule. I want to see an offensive line that is less interested in cutting jokes during press conferences and more interested in kicking the ass of the guy in front of him.

I’d like to see Garrett Gilbert establish himself. Come out and shine and the kid has confidence beaming from his ears. Come out shaky and the Horns faithful will wonder if we’re in for an inconsistent year from the quarterback position. Put those fears to rest with a nice yardage, good TD to INT ratio game.

I’d like to see the defense unleash hell. Again, it is just Rice, but I want to see all these new tools and how they’re going to fit into this defense going forth, and I want to keep a bad team down and stay that way, no giving up 20 points ala Louisiana Monroe last year.

That’s not too much to ask, is it?

Texas 55 Rice 10
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas

Random Hot Dallas Chick

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for beer at Reliant.

Consultants' Fuzzy Math

2010-06-15T21:29:00.000-05:00

So after a press conference today where Texas announced a commitment to the Big 12 and not much else, it was evident that there was no TV deal at all, and the Big 12 and Don Beebe apparently used the consultants from Office Space to come up with a Fox Sports Net deal that will pay the members of the conference $130-140 million per year...for 18 years.

Yep, $2.34 billion to show a conference that lost two teams. Baylor and Missouri in prime-time, baby!

Did Don Beebe offer strippers and coke at Big 12 Media Days, too?

Welcome Back to the Southwest Conference

2010-06-14T21:53:00.000-05:00

Good news to those of you Texas fans too young to remember the Southwest Conference.

It is coming back.

With Texas’s announcement that they are staying in the Big 12, er, Big 10, er, SWC2.0, they’re essentially trading good football for more money in the bank.

Not a bad deal…if you are an accounting major.

Nebraska and Colorado, the only Big 12 North schools to have won a national championship, saw that the conference was a lame duck and were smart enough to get out last week while they still could. They were so eager to get out of Dodge that they’ll pay the conference $10 million each to get out of here early. The rest? They let an incompetent league commissioner promise them more money in a TV deal that will no doubt be as bad as the current one as far as coverage of the actual sports that we all love.

Where the hell was the commish with this TV deal while Nebraska and Colorado were still in the league? In the drive-thru at Burger King?

The fans? As Dave Lapham would say, they get “face-raped”.

No, Texas fans, you don’t get to see USC, UCLA, Oregon, Arizona State and Cal coming to Austin. But hey, you get to travel to Ames, IA and Waco every other year.

Whoopee.

And yes, you’ll get your Longhorn Sports Network, which will show said re-runs of Texas and Iowa State. I can barely hold my excitement.

And yes, the best team you’ll ever see play at DKR with this current alignment is Texas Tech, Oklahoma State or perhaps Texas A&M. No more Nebraska on the rise, or a possible resurgent Colorado program, or any of the Pac-10 schools. If they didn’t want the competition of the Pac-10 or Big 10, there will be no Ohio States or Michigans coming to the Forty Acres anytime soon. Tech and Oklahoma State. Where Cotton Bowl victories are a reason to party.

No conference basketball games at Pauley Pavilion, or epic baseball road trips to Tempe or Palo Alto. No conference championship games in Phoenix or Denver. But hey, Manhattan, KS in April is lovely, I hear.

Congratulations, Texas. You are the laughing stock of the country today.

Does anyone in Bellmont really think that this conference is any better than the ACC or Big East? Or the Mountain West for that matter? Texas is Texas, but Oklahoma is coming off a Sun Bowl victory with a damned good chance of having another down year. Tech and Oklahoma State are on the way down after a couple of good years. Missouri and Kansas were flashes in the pan in the North. Texas A&M is a long way from being a competitive program.

Iowa State, Baylor and Kansas State are barely worth mentioning.

Auburn went undefeated in the SEC a few years ago and didn’t play for the national championship. What happens if Texas wins all of its games…and the best victory is over an 8-4 Oklahoma team? We’re playing in the Fiesta Bowl while one loss Alabama jumps us, that’s what.

But hey, you enjoy watching that on the Longhorn Sports Network, Deloss.

The other schools share the blame here, too. Oklahoma and Texas A&M basically let Texas dictate their program and who they are. A&M let the SEC play them like a fiddle, while Oklahoma followed big brother Texas wherever they went and would have broken their nose if they had stopped in their tracks.

The new conference TV deal is set incrementally, so you have Texas the big dog, Oklahoma and Texas A&M the medium size dogs and the other dogs get screwed like a poodle in heat out of the big money. Sounds like a healthy relationship. Once the euphoria of getting saved from the WAC wears off, Kansas State and Baylor will have their hands out wondering where their share is.

The worst thing about all of this? You’re just delaying the inevitable. The Big 12 conference will die. It is just a matter of time. College football is moving towards super conferences, and a conference with Dallas, Houston and that’s it stands no chance of surviving. Its death will probably come in 2014 when the BCS contract is up. So you’re basically attaching your name to a dying duck, a failing brand that other schools paid a mighty sum to get away from.

Congrats.

But we do get to see the rise of the Southwest Conference 2.0 and the death of the Big 12 all from the comfort of our living room on the Longhorn Sports Network.

There is that.

The Road to Glendale Begins Here

2010-03-03T19:54:00.000-06:00

It has been about a month since I last wrote a blog entry, and I know we're all excited that it means that we are one month closer to football season.

Spring practice started the other day, and while in recent years it has been a nice respite in the middle of the winter for Texas fans, this year it means so much more. Because as the McCoy/Shipley era ends in Austin, the Garrett Gilbert era begins, and he needs all the time that he can get under center.

And yes, under center is new for a lot of guys on this team, as the team begins a transition from a spread offense to a more traditional two back, under center base offense. This doesn't mean that Gilbert will all the sudden be asked to be a Trent Dilfer-like bus driver, but rather that Mack Brown is tired of not being able to run the football, and is tired of not being able to recruit a running back because of it.

But make no mistake about it, the 2010 season will hinge on whether or not Gilbert will be able to make a connection with a fresh set of receivers, and that requires time. So if Texas harbors any hopes of making it to Glendale next January for a repeat appearance in the National Championship Game, it will come down to the work being done this month in Austin.

National championships are won in January, but they are also won in March. The 2009 team tried to win one in January without doing the work in between March and December. Most of the team was ready, but the weak spots were there all year and were never fixed.

If Gilbert finds a rhythm with his receivers, and the team is able to find some semblance of a running game, and the offensive line plays more like they did against Alabama and less like they did against Nebraska, and the defense plays like it did last year, I don't see any reason to think that the Texas program will rise again like the Phoenix in Glendale next year.

But dammit Rice isn't for another six months.

Recruting: Texas Football Signs the #2 Class

2010-02-05T09:58:00.000-06:00

I know we Texas fans are tired of being #2, but this one is a little more subjective, as the Longhorns signed what most experts believe to be the second best recruiting class in the country behind Florida this week.

Highlighting the class is Plano West's DE Jackson Jeffcoat and Ohio LB Jordan Hicks, both five star recruits that committed just one week ago. I always wondered what it would be like to have Brian Orakpo and Derrick Johnson on one defense, and now we'll know.

The defensive corps in this whole recruiting class is just ridiculous. The effects of Muschamp are really being felt here, as Texas snatched up Aaron Benson (LB), Taylor Bible (DT), Carrington Byndom (DB), Greg Daniels (DE), Ashton Dorsey (DT), Bryant Jackson (DB), Tevin Jackson (LB), and Reggie Wilson (DE), all four star recruits, and a couple three star recruits as well. DeMarco Cobbs and Adrian Phillips, also four recruits, will also likely line up on the defensive side of the ball.

It is almost unfair, but I'll take it. This defense will dominating and be one that the national pundits will drool over, book it.

On offense, the Longhorns loaded up at WR with the addition of Mike Davis (Dallas), John Harris (Garland), Chris Jones (Daingerfield), Darius Terrell (DeSoto) and Darius White (Fort Worth), all four star recruits. White and Davis are the highlights of the group, as Mike Davis is called "Black Shipley" in recruiting circles while White has the opportunity to be one of the most dynamic return guys this school has seen as well as a force at receiver.

Connor Wood (Houston) and Case McCoy (Graham) will battle it out for either back-up to Garrett Gilbert or back-up to Sherod Harris, and Traylon Shead (Cayuga) has the opportunity to take control of a running back situation in flux.

All in all, a lot of experts believe that this is the best class that Mack Brown has signed since the 2002 class, which produced Vince Young and other cornerstones of the 2005 National Championship squad. Some believe it might be even better than that class.

Better or worse, let's all hope they have the same success.

The Offseason

2010-01-25T18:02:00.000-06:00

My two most hated words.

But alas, I suppose Texas can't play 52 games a year (why not I have no idea), so it is what it is.

This blog will be updated less, but I do plan on updating it around:

-- Recruiting. Texas is still in the hunt for Jackson Jeffcoat, Jordan Hicks and others, and I'll have my thoughts on their announcements when and if they decide to come to Texas. National Signing Day is also right around the corner, and while I'm no recruiting expert, I'll try to break it down the best that I can.

-- Spring Practice. This has the potential to be the most entertaining Spring Practice in years, as Texas is replacing Colt McCoy at quarterback and trying to fill the loss of Jordan Shipley, Dan Buckner and Brandon Collins at wide receiver.

-- The NFL Draft. The Longhorns will have their biggest draft class in years, and we'll be here to talk about it.

-- Summer Practice. Only 7 short months away...

And of course when any other breaking news breaks, we'll be here to discuss it.